Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, November 16, 2008

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	18	Spurs	57%	92	90
	26	Kings	43%	90	88

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
SAS	102.3	88	81.5
SAC	100.0	88	95.6

Scoring Opportunities

SAS

-13

SAC

+14

-17

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.08 54.2%

SAC

1.02 51.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	SAC
Q4 - 0:00.0	SAC		90 100%	88 0%
Q4 - 0:00.0	SAC	KINGS Rebound	90 99.3%	88 0.7%
Q4 - 0:00.0	SAC	MISS Douby 28' 3PT Jump Shot	90 99.9%	88 0.1%
Q4 - 0:01.0	SAC	Miller REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	90 99.3%	88 0.7%
Q4 - 0:02.0	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2	90 97.2%	88 2.8%
Q4 - 0:02.0	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2	90 97.9%	88 2.1%
Q4 - 0:03.0	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:8)	90 99.1%	88 0.9%
Q4 - 0:04.0	SAC	MISS Miller 17' Jump Shot	90 98.7%	88 1.3%
Q4 - 0:15.0	SAS	Duncan Layup (20 PTS) (Finley 1 AST)	90 84.5%	88 15.5%
Q4 - 0:31.0	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:7)	88 67.7%	88 32.3%
Q4 - 0:32.0	SAC	MISS Thompson 8' Jump Shot	88 61.2%	88 38.8%
Q4 - 0:49.0	SAS	Duncan 9' Jump Shot (18 PTS)	88 47.3%	88 52.7%
Q4 - 1:11	SAC	Udrih Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)	86 36.2%	88 63.8%
Q4 - 1:11	SAC	Udrih Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)	86 38.2%	87 61.8%
Q4 - 1:22	SAS	Finley 5' Hook Bank Shot (21 PTS) (Duncan 4 AST)	86 49.9%	86 50.1%
Q4 - 1:46	SAS	Mason Jr. REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	84 39.0%	86 61.0%
Q4 - 1:47	SAC	MISS Udrih 10' Jump Shot	84 35.2%	86 64.8%
Q4 - 2:07	SAS	Duncan Poss Lost Ball Turnover (P5.T14)	84 25.6%	86 74.4%
Q4 - 2:31	SAC	Salmons 18' Jump Shot (31 PTS)	84 40.9%	86 59.1%
Q4 - 2:44	SAS	Mason Jr. Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T13)	84 47.7%	84 52.3%
Q4 - 3:03	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	84 64.8%	84 35.2%
Q4 - 3:04	SAC	MISS Douby Free Throw 2 of 2	84 63.0%	84 37.0%
Q4 - 3:04	SAC	Douby Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)	84 54.8%	84 45.2%
Q4 - 3:13	SAC	Udrih REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	84 61.2%	83 38.8%
Q4 - 3:14	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 24' 3PT Jump Shot	84 65.7%	83 34.3%
Q4 - 3:27	SAC	Udrih Poss Lost Ball Turnover (P5.T18)	84 74.8%	83 25.2%
Q4 - 3:39	SAS	Duncan 3' Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Mason Jr. 1 AST)	84 61.9%	83 38.1%
Q4 - 4:00	SAC	Miller 16' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Salmons 3 AST)	82 53.3%	83 46.7%
Q4 - 4:17	SAS	Mason Jr. Free Throw 1 of 1 (18 PTS)	82 62.1%	81 37.9%
Q4 - 4:31	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	79 43.5%	81 56.5%
Q4 - 4:32	SAC	MISS Miller 20' Jump Shot	79 40.3%	81 59.7%
Q4 - 4:46	SAC	Douby REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	79 33.4%	81 66.6%
Q4 - 4:47	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 3PT Jump Shot	79 36.3%	81 63.7%
Q4 - 5:03	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	79 44.9%	81 55.1%
Q4 - 5:04	SAC	MISS Miller 3' Tip Shot	79 42.3%	81 57.7%
Q4 - 5:06	SAC	Miller REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	79 36.5%	81 63.5%
Q4 - 5:06	SAC	MISS Thompson Layup	79 42.3%	81 57.7%
Q4 - 5:07	SAC	Thompson REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	79 36.5%	81 63.5%
Q4 - 5:09	SAC	MISS Thompson 4' Jump Shot	79 42.3%	81 57.7%
Q4 - 5:28	SAC	Thompson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	79 36.3%	81 63.7%
Q4 - 5:29	SAS	MISS Duncan 9' Turnaround Jump Shot	79 38.9%	81 61.1%
Q4 - 5:49	SAC	Salmons Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T17)	79 44.8%	81 55.2%
Q4 - 6:11	SAS	Spurs Turnover: 5 Second Inbound (T#12)	79 39.2%	81 60.8%
Q4 - 6:11	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	79 46.9%	81 53.1%
Q4 - 6:12	SAS	MISS Finley 26' 3PT Jump Shot	79 41.5%	81 58.5%
Q4 - 6:34	SAC	Salmons 19' Jump Shot (29 PTS) (Miller 4 AST)	79 46.8%	81 53.2%
Q4 - 6:53	SAS	Finley 18' Jump Shot (19 PTS) (Vaughn 6 AST)	79 54.0%	79 46.0%
Q4 - 7:06	SAC	Udrih Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T16)	77 48.3%	79 51.7%
Q4 - 7:11	SAC	Moore REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	77 40.9%	79 59.1%
Q4 - 7:12	SAS	MISS Duncan 8' Jump Shot	77 43.1%	79 56.9%
Q4 - 7:36	SAC	Douby 24' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Udrih 4 AST)	77 48.2%	79 51.8%
Q4 - 7:42	SAC	Udrih REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	77 61.5%	76 38.5%
Q4 - 7:43	SAS	MISS Finley 17' Jump Shot	77 63.7%	76 36.3%
Q4 - 8:01	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	77 67.8%	76 32.2%
Q4 - 8:02	SAC	MISS Thompson 8' Floating Jump Shot	77 66.1%	76 33.9%
Q4 - 8:25	SAS	Finley Free Throw 2 of 2 (17 PTS)	77 62.2%	76 37.8%
Q4 - 8:25	SAS	Finley Free Throw 1 of 2 (16 PTS)	76 61.3%	76 38.7%
Q4 - 8:29	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	75 55.6%	76 44.4%
Q4 - 8:30	SAC	MISS Udrih 25' 3PT Jump Shot	75 53.7%	76 46.3%
Q4 - 8:52	SAS	Vaughn 16' Jump Shot (10 PTS)	75 49.3%	76 50.7%
Q4 - 9:06	SAC	Udrih 15' Jump Shot (14 PTS)	73 44.1%	76 55.9%
Q4 - 9:15	SAS	Udrih STEAL (3 STL)	73 50.3%	74 49.7%
Q4 - 9:39	SAC	Salmons Free Throw 2 of 2 (27 PTS)	73 56.0%	74 44.0%
Q4 - 9:39	SAC	Salmons Free Throw 1 of 2 (26 PTS)	73 57.1%	73 42.9%
Q4 - 9:55	SAS	Mason Jr. 24' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS)	73 62.2%	72 37.8%
Q4 - 10:07	SAS	Vaughn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	70 50.7%	72 49.3%
Q4 - 10:08	SAC	MISS Hawes 25' 3PT Jump Shot	70 49.0%	72 51.0%
Q4 - 10:30	SAC	Moore REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	70 45.1%	72 54.9%
Q4 - 10:31	SAS	MISS Bowen 24' 3PT Jump Shot	70 46.8%	72 53.2%
Q4 - 10:39	SAS	Vaughn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	70 50.7%	72 49.3%
Q4 - 10:41	SAC	MISS Douby 19' Jump Shot	70 49.0%	72 51.0%
Q4 - 11:01	SAS	Oberto 14' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Bonner 1 AST)	70 46.1%	72 53.9%
Q4 - 11:19	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	68 40.5%	72 59.5%
Q4 - 11:20	SAS	Moore BLOCK (1 BLK)	68 37.2%	72 62.8%
Q4 - 11:39	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	68 40.5%	72 59.5%
Q4 - 11:40	SAC	MISS B. Brown Layup	68 39.0%	72 61.0%
Q3 - 0:00.0	SAC		68 35.7%	72 64.3%
Q3 - 0:00.0	SAC	KINGS Rebound	68 35.7%	72 64.3%
Q3 - 0:00.0	SAC	MISS Douby 43' 3PT Jump Shot	68 39.0%	72 61.0%
Q3 - 0:02.0	SAS	Vaughn Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)	68 36.9%	72 63.1%
Q3 - 0:02.0	SAS	Vaughn Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)	67 35.9%	72 64.1%
Q3 - 0:18.0	SAC	B. Brown 6' Jump Hook Shot (6 PTS)	66 31.7%	72 68.3%
Q3 - 0:37.0	SAC	Miller REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	66 36.8%	70 63.2%
Q3 - 0:38.0	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 25' 3PT Jump Shot	66 38.1%	70 61.9%
Q3 - 0:57.0	SAS	Bowen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	66 41.1%	70 58.9%
Q3 - 0:58.0	SAC	MISS Salmons 3PT Jump Shot	66 39.8%	70 60.2%
Q3 - 1:24	SAS	Bonner 25' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Vaughn 5 AST)	66 37.2%	70 62.8%
Q3 - 1:37	SAC	KINGS Turnover: Shot Clock (T#15)	63 28.2%	70 71.8%
Q3 - 1:37	SAC	KINGS Rebound	63 24.7%	70 75.3%
Q3 - 1:37	SAC	MISS B. Brown 14' Jump Shot	63 27.1%	70 72.9%
Q3 - 2:03	SAS	Vaughn Free Throw 1 of 1 (6 PTS)	63 26.0%	70 74.0%
Q3 - 2:21	SAC	Miller 20' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (B. Brown 2 AST)	60 19.4%	70 80.6%
Q3 - 2:33	SAS	Vaughn Foul Turnover (P2.T10)	60 22.4%	68 77.6%
Q3 - 2:47	SAS	Oberto REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	60 25.8%	68 74.2%
Q3 - 2:48	SAC	MISS Douby 4' Jump Shot	60 24.7%	68 75.3%
Q3 - 2:59	SAS	Mason Jr. Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)	60 22.4%	68 77.6%
Q3 - 2:59	SAS	Mason Jr. Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)	59 22.0%	68 78.0%
Q3 - 3:12	SAC	Udrih Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)	58 21.0%	68 79.0%
Q3 - 3:12	SAC	Udrih Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)	58 21.5%	67 78.5%
Q3 - 3:31	SAS	Bonner 25' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Vaughn 4 AST)	58 23.9%	66 76.1%
Q3 - 3:44	SAC	Douby 25' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Miller 3 AST)	55 18.1%	66 81.9%
Q3 - 3:57	SAC	Hawes REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7)	55 23.9%	63 76.1%
Q3 - 3:58	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 25' 3PT Jump Shot	55 24.9%	63 75.1%
Q3 - 4:18	SAC	Miller Dunk (6 PTS) (Udrih 3 AST)	55 28.5%	63 71.5%
Q3 - 4:28	SAC	Udrih REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	55 31.5%	61 68.5%
Q3 - 4:29	SAS	MISS Hill 25' 3PT Jump Shot	55 32.9%	61 67.1%
Q3 - 4:56	SAC	Thompson Dunk (9 PTS) (Udrih 2 AST)	55 36.1%	61 63.9%
Q3 - 5:19	SAS	Finley 24' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Hill 3 AST)	55 40.2%	59 59.8%
Q3 - 5:25	SAC	Salmons Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T14)	52 32.9%	59 67.1%
Q3 - 5:28	SAC	Salmons REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	52 28.9%	59 71.1%
Q3 - 5:30	SAC	MISS Douby 5' Jump Shot	52 31.6%	59 68.4%
Q3 - 5:35	SAS	Udrih STEAL (2 STL)	52 28.9%	59 71.1%
Q3 - 5:54	SAC	Udrih 4' Running Hook Shot (10 PTS)	52 32.9%	59 67.1%
Q3 - 6:10	SAS	Udrih STEAL (1 STL)	52 37.4%	57 62.6%
Q3 - 6:14	SAC	Douby 23' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Miller 2 AST)	52 41.5%	57 58.5%
Q3 - 6:35	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)	52 45.1%	55 54.9%
Q3 - 6:35	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2	51 44.0%	55 56.0%
Q3 - 6:47	SAC	Udrih Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T13)	51 45.4%	55 54.6%
Q3 - 7:03	SAC	Douby REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	51 41.8%	55 58.2%
Q3 - 7:04	SAS	MISS Bonner 20' Jump Shot	51 43.0%	55 57.0%
Q3 - 7:15	SAC	Thompson Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T12)	51 45.7%	55 54.3%
Q3 - 7:18	SAS	Thompson STEAL (3 STL)	51 41.8%	55 58.2%
Q3 - 7:36	SAC	Salmons 24' 3PT Jump Shot (25 PTS)	51 45.7%	55 54.3%
Q3 - 7:58	SAS	Finley Slam Dunk (12 PTS)	51 53.3%	52 46.7%
Q3 - 8:13	SAC	Salmons 25' 3PT Jump Shot (22 PTS)	49 49.8%	52 50.2%
Q3 - 8:37	SAC	Moore REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	49 57.0%	49 43.0%
Q3 - 8:38	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2	49 57.5%	49 42.5%
Q3 - 8:38	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)	49 59.6%	49 40.4%
Q3 - 8:49	SAS	Mason Jr. REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	48 57.3%	49 42.7%
Q3 - 8:50	SAC	MISS Salmons 14' Jump Shot	48 56.0%	49 44.0%
Q3 - 9:36	SAC	Moore REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	45 50.0%	47 50.0%
Q3 - 9:37	SAS	MISS Finley 19' Jump Shot	45 51.1%	47 48.9%
Q3 - 9:49	SAC	Salmons Free Throw 1 of 1 (19 PTS)	45 53.7%	47 46.3%
Q3 - 9:51	SAS	Salmons STEAL (2 STL)	45 60.9%	44 39.1%
Q3 - 10:16	SAC	Udrih Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T11)	45 64.3%	44 35.7%
Q3 - 10:24	SAC	Moore REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	45 60.9%	44 39.1%
Q3 - 10:25	SAS	MISS Hill 17' Jump Shot	45 62.0%	44 38.0%
Q3 - 10:48	SAC	Udrih 17' Jump Shot (8 PTS)	45 64.3%	44 35.7%
Q3 - 10:54	SAS	Thompson STEAL (2 STL)	45 67.5%	42 32.5%
Q3 - 11:05	SAS	Spurs Rebound	45 70.7%	42 29.3%
Q3 - 11:05	SAS	MISS Hill 8' Running Jump Shot	45 68.5%	42 31.5%
Q3 - 11:17	SAS	Hill REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	45 70.6%	42 29.4%
Q3 - 11:18	SAC	MISS Thompson 16' Jump Shot	45 69.7%	42 30.3%
Q3 - 11:35	SAS	Duncan Tip Shot (12 PTS)	45 67.5%	42 32.5%
Q3 - 11:35	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	43 64.6%	42 35.4%
Q3 - 11:37	SAS	MISS Finley Layup	43 62.2%	42 37.8%
Q2 - 0:00.0	SAC		43 64.6%	42 35.4%
Q2 - 0:00.0	SAC	KINGS Rebound	43 61.1%	42 38.9%
Q2 - 0:00.0	SAC	MISS Douby 24' 3PT Jump Shot	43 63.5%	42 36.5%
Q2 - 0:24.0	SAS	Tolliver REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	43 61.8%	42 38.2%
Q2 - 0:24.0	SAS	Tolliver Tip Shot (2 PTS)	43 61.8%	42 38.2%
Q2 - 0:25.0	SAS	MISS Finley 8' Jump Shot	41 56.1%	42 43.9%
Q2 - 0:29.0	SAS	Oberto REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	41 57.8%	42 42.2%
Q2 - 0:30.0	SAS	MISS Hill Driving Layup	41 56.1%	42 43.9%
Q2 - 0:49.0	SAC	Udrih Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	41 57.8%	42 42.2%
Q2 - 0:49.0	SAC	Udrih Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	41 58.3%	41 41.7%
Q2 - 1:04	SAS	Mason Jr. 25' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS)	41 62.0%	40 38.0%
Q2 - 1:18	SAC	Salmons Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)	38 54.8%	40 45.2%
Q2 - 1:18	SAC	Salmons Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)	38 55.3%	39 44.7%
Q2 - 1:38	SAS	Hill 21' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	38 58.9%	38 41.1%
Q2 - 2:03	SAC	Douby 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS)	36 55.5%	38 44.5%
Q2 - 2:21	SAS	Hill Layup (2 PTS) (Tolliver 1 AST)	36 61.6%	35 38.4%
Q2 - 2:25	SAC	Udrih Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T10)	34 58.6%	35 41.4%
Q2 - 2:39	SAS	Hill Double Dribble Turnover (P1.T4)	34 55.4%	35 44.6%
Q2 - 2:50	SAC	Salmons Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)	34 58.6%	35 41.4%
Q2 - 2:50	SAC	Salmons Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)	34 59.1%	34 40.9%
Q2 - 2:56	SAS	Finley Driving Layup (10 PTS)	34 61.6%	33 38.4%
Q2 - 3:15	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	32 59.1%	33 40.9%
Q2 - 3:16	SAC	MISS Udrih 13' Jump Shot	32 58.0%	33 42.0%
Q2 - 3:23	SAS	Salmons STEAL (1 STL)	32 55.5%	33 44.5%
Q2 - 3:28	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	32 59.1%	33 40.9%
Q2 - 3:29	SAC	MISS Miller 18' Jump Shot	32 58.0%	33 42.0%
Q2 - 3:49	SAS	Finley 26' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Hill 2 AST)	32 55.5%	33 44.5%
Q2 - 4:12	SAC	Hawes Foul Turnover (P2.T9)	29 50.0%	33 50.0%
Q2 - 4:23	SAS	Duncan 5' Finger Roll Layup (10 PTS)	29 46.7%	33 53.3%
Q2 - 4:43	SAC	Udrih 17' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	27 43.9%	33 56.1%
Q2 - 4:53	SAS	Vaughn Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)	27 46.7%	31 53.3%
Q2 - 5:14	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	24 41.6%	31 58.4%
Q2 - 5:15	SAC	MISS Jackson 24' 3PT Jump Shot	24 40.8%	31 59.2%
Q2 - 5:38	SAC	Hawes REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)	24 38.8%	31 61.2%
Q2 - 5:39	SAS	MISS Finley 17' Jump Shot	24 39.7%	31 60.3%
Q2 - 5:56	SAC	Salmons 16' Fadeaway Jumper (12 PTS)	24 41.6%	31 58.4%
Q2 - 6:20	SAS	Bonner 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Vaughn 3 AST)	24 44.6%	29 55.4%
Q2 - 6:36	SAC	B. Brown 22' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	21 39.4%	29 60.6%
Q2 - 6:53	SAC	Hawes REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	21 41.8%	27 58.2%
Q2 - 6:55	SAS	Hawes BLOCK (2 BLK)	21 42.8%	27 57.2%
Q2 - 7:12	SAS	Bowen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	21 45.4%	27 54.6%
Q2 - 7:13	SAC	MISS Hawes 18' Jump Shot	21 44.5%	27 55.5%
Q2 - 7:23	SAC	Thompson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	21 42.5%	27 57.5%
Q2 - 7:24	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 19' Jump Shot	21 43.4%	27 56.6%
Q2 - 7:40	SAC	Jackson Foul Turnover (P1.T8)	21 45.4%	27 54.6%
Q2 - 7:42	SAC	Jackson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	21 42.5%	27 57.5%
Q2 - 7:43	SAC	MISS Hawes 26' 3PT Jump Shot	21 44.5%	27 55.5%
Q2 - 7:55	SAC	Hawes REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	21 42.4%	27 57.6%
Q2 - 7:56	SAS	MISS Vaughn 18' Jump Shot	21 43.3%	27 56.7%
Q2 - 8:16	SAC	B. Brown 17' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Shel. Williams 1 AST)	21 45.8%	27 54.2%
Q2 - 8:37	SAS	Bowen 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Vaughn 2 AST)	21 48.6%	25 51.4%
Q2 - 8:47	SAC	B. Brown Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T7)	19 45.8%	25 54.2%
Q2 - 9:03	SAS	Mason Jr. 20' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	19 43.3%	25 56.7%
Q2 - 9:21	SAC	Thompson 6' Running Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Jackson 1 AST)	17 40.7%	25 59.3%
Q2 - 9:31	SAC	Jackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	17 43.3%	23 56.7%
Q2 - 9:32	SAS	MISS Bonner 25' 3PT Jump Shot	17 44.1%	23 55.9%
Q2 - 9:42	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	17 46.0%	23 54.0%
Q2 - 9:43	SAC	MISS Hawes 6' Jump Hook Shot	17 45.2%	23 54.8%
Q2 - 9:59	SAS	Bonner 5' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Vaughn 1 AST)	17 43.3%	23 56.7%
Q2 - 10:06	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	15 41.3%	23 58.7%
Q2 - 10:08	SAC	MISS Shel. Williams 7' Jump Shot	15 40.5%	23 59.5%
Q2 - 10:25	SAC	Shel. Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	15 38.6%	23 61.4%
Q2 - 10:27	SAS	MISS Bonner 25' 3PT Jump Shot	15 39.4%	23 60.6%
Q2 - 10:39	SAC	Shel. Williams Foul Turnover (P1.T6)	15 41.2%	23 58.8%
Q2 - 10:50	SAC	Hawes REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	15 38.6%	23 61.4%
Q2 - 10:51	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 23' Jump Shot	15 39.4%	23 60.6%
Q2 - 11:13	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	15 41.6%	23 58.4%
Q2 - 11:14	SAC	MISS Thompson 19' Jump Shot	15 40.8%	23 59.2%
Q2 - 11:29	SAC	B. Brown REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	15 39.1%	23 60.9%
Q2 - 11:31	SAC	MISS Jackson 21' Jump Shot	15 40.8%	23 59.2%
Q2 - 11:37	SAC	Hawes REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	15 39.1%	23 60.9%
Q2 - 11:39	SAS	Oberto REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	15 41.6%	23 58.4%
Q2 - 11:39	SAS	MISS Oberto Tip Shot	15 39.8%	23 60.2%
Q2 - 11:41	SAS	MISS Vaughn 4' Jump Shot	15 39.8%	23 60.2%
Q1 - 0:00.0	SAS		15 41.6%	23 58.4%
Q1 - 0:01.0	SAC	Hawes Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T5)	15 41.9%	23 58.1%
Q1 - 0:04.0	SAC	KINGS Rebound	15 40.1%	23 59.9%
Q1 - 0:04.0	SAS	Hawes BLOCK (1 BLK)	15 40.6%	23 59.4%
Q1 - 0:21.0	SAC	Miller Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T4)	15 41.8%	23 58.2%
Q1 - 0:22.0	SAS	Miller STEAL (1 STL)	15 40.0%	23 60.0%
Q1 - 0:37.0	SAC	Hawes 6' Jump Hook Shot (2 PTS) (B. Brown 1 AST)	15 41.8%	23 58.2%
Q1 - 0:53.0	SAC	Miller REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	15 44.8%	21 55.2%
Q1 - 0:54.0	SAS	MISS Vaughn Layup	15 45.4%	21 54.6%
Q1 - 1:07	SAC	Miller Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T3)	15 47.3%	21 52.7%
Q1 - 1:26	SAC	Miller REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	15 45.7%	21 54.3%
Q1 - 1:27	SAS	MISS Bonner Layup	15 46.2%	21 53.8%
Q1 - 1:41	SAC	Salmons Foul Turnover (P1.T2)	15 47.3%	21 52.7%
Q1 - 1:47	SAC	KINGS Rebound	15 45.6%	21 54.4%
Q1 - 1:48	SAC	MISS Udrih Layup	15 46.8%	21 53.2%
Q1 - 1:54	SAC	Udrih REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	15 45.6%	21 54.4%
Q1 - 1:55	SAS	MISS Duncan 18' Jump Bank Shot	15 46.1%	21 53.9%
Q1 - 2:19	SAC	Salmons 24' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Miller 1 AST)	15 47.9%	21 52.1%
Q1 - 2:31	SAC	Hawes REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	15 52.9%	18 47.1%
Q1 - 2:33	SAS	MISS Finley 24' 3PT Jump Shot	15 53.5%	18 46.5%
Q1 - 2:45	SAS	Bowen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	15 54.8%	18 45.2%
Q1 - 2:46	SAC	MISS Hawes 17' Jump Shot	15 54.2%	18 45.8%
Q1 - 2:58	SAS	Duncan Driving Layup (8 PTS)	15 52.9%	18 47.1%
Q1 - 3:20	SAC	Miller Layup (4 PTS) (Udrih 1 AST)	13 50.7%	18 49.3%
Q1 - 3:35	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	13 53.0%	16 47.0%
Q1 - 3:35	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	12 52.4%	16 47.6%
Q1 - 3:53	SAC	Moore 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Salmons 2 AST)	11 50.7%	16 49.3%
Q1 - 4:09	SAC	Moore REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	11 53.1%	14 46.9%
Q1 - 4:10	SAC	MISS Udrih 26' 3PT Jump Shot	11 54.7%	14 45.3%
Q1 - 4:19	SAC	Miller REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	11 53.1%	14 46.9%
Q1 - 4:20	SAS	MISS Duncan 8' Running Hook Shot	11 53.8%	14 46.2%
Q1 - 4:39	SAC	Salmons 7' Jump Shot (7 PTS)	11 55.4%	14 44.6%
Q1 - 4:43	SAC	Thompson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	11 57.5%	12 42.5%
Q1 - 4:45	SAC	MISS Thompson 6' Jump Shot	11 59.1%	12 40.9%
Q1 - 5:01	SAS	Mason Jr. Layup (2 PTS) (Duncan 2 AST)	11 57.2%	12 42.8%
Q1 - 5:15	SAC	Moore Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T1)	9 55.3%	12 44.7%
Q1 - 5:27	SAS	Finley 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Hill 1 AST)	9 52.9%	12 47.1%
Q1 - 5:47	SAC	Udrih 15' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	6 48.9%	12 51.1%
Q1 - 5:54	SAS	Thompson STEAL (1 STL)	6 50.8%	10 49.2%
Q1 - 6:11	SAC	Thompson Free Throw 2 of 2 (3 PTS)	6 53.4%	10 46.6%
Q1 - 6:11	SAC	MISS Thompson Free Throw 1 of 2	6 54.0%	9 46.0%
Q1 - 6:15	SAC	Udrih REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	6 53.3%	9 46.7%
Q1 - 6:17	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 15' Jump Shot	6 54.0%	9 46.0%
Q1 - 6:40	SAS	Spurs Rebound	6 55.5%	9 44.5%
Q1 - 6:40	SAC	MISS Salmons Layup	6 54.8%	9 45.2%
Q1 - 6:52	SAS	Duncan Layup (4 PTS) (Oberto 2 AST)	6 53.3%	9 46.7%
Q1 - 7:09	SAC	Miller Layup (2 PTS) (Moore 1 AST)	4 51.5%	9 48.5%
Q1 - 7:16	SAC	Thompson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	4 53.3%	7 46.7%
Q1 - 7:17	SAS	MISS Finley 7' Jump Shot	4 54.1%	7 45.9%
Q1 - 7:46	SAS	Hill REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4 55.7%	7 44.3%
Q1 - 7:48	SAC	MISS Thompson 6' Jump Hook Shot	4 55.0%	7 45.0%
Q1 - 8:04	SAS	Duncan 8' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Oberto 1 AST)	4 53.7%	7 46.3%
Q1 - 8:22	SAC	Salmons 19' Jump Shot (5 PTS)	2 51.5%	7 48.5%
Q1 - 8:37	SAC	Miller REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	2 53.6%	5 46.4%
Q1 - 8:38	SAS	MISS Hill 5' Jump Shot	2 54.3%	5 45.7%
Q1 - 9:04	SAS	Oberto REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	2 56.4%	5 43.6%
Q1 - 9:05	SAC	MISS Salmons Free Throw 2 of 2	2 56.2%	5 43.8%
Q1 - 9:05	SAC	Salmons Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	2 54.8%	5 45.2%
Q1 - 9:18	SAC	KINGS Rebound	2 56.6%	4 43.4%
Q1 - 9:19	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 25' 3PT Jump Shot	2 57.1%	4 42.9%
Q1 - 9:35	SAC	Thompson Alley Oop Layup (2 PTS) (Salmons 1 AST)	2 58.3%	4 41.7%
Q1 - 9:53	SAS	Finley 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Duncan 1 AST)	2 60.4%	2 39.6%
Q1 - 10:01	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	0 58.7%	2 41.3%
Q1 - 10:02	SAC	Miller REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	0 56.8%	2 43.2%
Q1 - 10:02	SAC	MISS Miller Tip Shot	0 58.2%	2 41.8%
Q1 - 10:05	SAC	MISS Moore Layup	0 58.2%	2 41.8%
Q1 - 10:06	SAC	Moore REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	0 56.8%	2 43.2%
Q1 - 10:08	SAC	MISS Miller 6' Jump Shot	0 58.2%	2 41.8%
Q1 - 10:23	SAC	Thompson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	0 56.8%	2 43.2%
Q1 - 10:24	SAS	MISS Finley 20' Jump Shot	0 57.4%	2 42.6%
Q1 - 10:42	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	0 58.7%	2 41.3%
Q1 - 10:43	SAC	MISS Thompson 20' Jump Shot	0 58.1%	2 41.9%
Q1 - 10:54	SAC	Thompson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 56.8%	2 43.2%
Q1 - 10:55	SAS	MISS Duncan 16' Turnaround Jump Shot	0 57.4%	2 42.6%
Q1 - 11:19	SAC	Salmons 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	0 58.9%	2 41.1%
Q1 - 11:28	SAC	Moore REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 60.5%	0 39.5%
Q1 - 11:29	SAS	MISS Duncan 14' Jump Shot	0 61.0%	0 39.0%
Q1 - 11:43	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 62.1%	0 37.9%
Q1 - 11:44	SAC	MISS Udrih 14' Jump Shot	0 61.6%	0 38.4%
Q1 - 12:00	SAC	Jump Ball Miller vs. Duncan: Tip to Udrih	0 60.5%	0 39.5%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.08 54.2%

SAC

1.02 51.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

SAS

67%

SAC

41%

Midrange

SAS

30%

SAC

48%

3PT | Effective 3PT

SAS

13.5

45%

68%

SAC

9.0

40%

60%

Free Throws

SAS

76%

SAC

84%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
M. Finley	21	58%	10.5 / 18
T. Duncan	20	53%	10.0 / 19
R. Mason Jr.	18	60%	9.0 / 15
M. Bonner	11	61%	5.5 / 9
J. Vaughn	10	63%	5.0 / 8
G. Hill	4	29%	2.0 / 7
F. Oberto	2	50%	1.0 / 2
B. Bowen	2	50%	1.0 / 2
A. Tolliver	2	100%	1.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Kings

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Salmons	31	91%	15.5 / 17
B. Udrih	16	57%	8.0 / 14
Q. Douby	12	55%	6.0 / 11
B. Miller	10	45%	5.0 / 11
J. Thompson	9	35%	4.5 / 13
B. Brown	6	60%	3.0 / 5
M. Moore	2	50%	1.0 / 2
S. Hawes	2	17%	1.0 / 6
B. Jackson	0	-	0.0 / 2
S. Williams	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

SAS

-13

SAC

+14

-17

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.08 54.2%

SAC

1.02 51.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	108.3 105.3	SAS 102.3 +2.3 SAC 100.0
Pace	88.7 94.5	SAS 81.5 SAC 95.6 +14.0
Avg. Poss. Time	16.5 15.1	SAS 17.7 SAC 15.1 +2.6
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	51.3% 49.1%	SAS 52.0% +3.4% SAC 48.6%
TO %	12.4% 15.5%	SAS 14.7% +3.2% SAC 17.9%
ORB %	22.2% 24.6%	SAS 15.4% SAC 24.3% +8.9%
FTrt	25.1 31.5	SAS 23.0 SAC 25.7 +2.7
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	57.1% 54.1%	SAS 55.9% +7.4% SAC 48.5%
STL %	6.5% 7.3%	SAS 6.8% SAC 10.2% +3.4%
BLK %	6.1% 6.5%	SAS 8.5% +2.9% SAC 5.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.08 and 2.08.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	53.4% 52.7%	SAS 54.2% +3.0% SAC 51.2%
Rim FG%	58.8% 56.6%	SAS 66.7% +25.5% SAC 41.2%
Mid FG%	42.7% 39.7%	SAS 30.0% SAC 47.6% +17.6%
3P %	38.6% 36.8%	SAS 45.0% +5.0% SAC 40.0%
FT %	76.2% 79.8%	SAS 76.5% SAC 84.2% +7.7%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	30.3% 33.9%	SAS 32.4% +9.5% SAC 23.0%
Mid Att. %	44.9% 42.2%	SAS 40.5% +16.2% SAC 56.8%
3P Att. %	24.8% 23.8%	SAS 27.0% +6.8% SAC 20.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	SAS	SAC
Possessions	88	88
Possession Minutes	25.9	22.1
Points	90	88
Rebounds	34	42
Assists	19	16
Steals	6	9
Blocks	5	3
Turnovers (Team)	13 (1)	17 (1)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	6 (1)	9 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	28 (1)	33 (2)
Field Goals	34-74	33-74
At-the-Rim FG	16-24	7-17
Midrange FG	9-30	20-42
2-Point FG	25-54	27-59
3-Point FG	9-20	6-15
Free Throws	13-17	16-19
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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18 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Roger Mason Jr. G · 6'5" 205 · 28	38.8	18	60%	2	1	2	0	1	3	0	2	3-3	100%	3-6	50%	3-8	38%
Tim Duncan F · 6'11" 250 · 33	35.5	20	53%	10	4	0	3	5	3	2	8	4-8	50%	8-15	53%	0-0	-
Michael Finley F · 6'7" 225 · 36	34.7	21	58%	3	1	1	1	1	1	0	3	2-2	100%	5-12	42%	3-5	60%
Fabricio Oberto C · 6'10" 245 · 34	26.0	2	50%	4	2	0	1	1	4	2	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
George Hill G · 6'3" 188 · 23	19.6	4	29%	2	3	0	0	2	2	0	2	0-0	-	2-6	33%	0-1	0%
Bruce Bowen F · 6'7" 200 · 37	28.8	2	50%	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Matt Bonner C-F · 6'10" 235 · 29	27.1	11	61%	7	1	2	0	0	0	1	6	0-0	-	1-4	25%	3-5	60%
Jacque Vaughn G · 6'1" 190 · 34	23.1	10	63%	2	6	0	0	3	3	0	2	4-4	100%	3-7	43%	0-0	-
Anthony Tolliver F · 6'8" 240 · 23	6.5	2	100%	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Ime Udoka G-F · 6'5" 220 · 31
Kurt Thomas F · 6'9" 240 · 36
Blake Ahearn G · 6'2" 190 · 24
Desmon Farmer G · 6'5" 220 · 27
Tony Parker #9 · G · 6'2" 185 · 27	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Ian Mahinmi #28 · C · 6'11" 262 · 22	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Manu Ginobili #20 · G · 6'6" 205 · 31	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	90	54%	34	19	6	5	13	0	6	28	13-17	76%	25-54	46%	9-20	45%

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18 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Roger Mason Jr. G · 6'5" 205 · 28	38.8	18	60%	2	1	2	0	1	3	0	2	3-3	100%	3-6	50%	3-8	38%
Tim Duncan F · 6'11" 250 · 33	35.5	20	53%	10	4	0	3	5	3	2	8	4-8	50%	8-15	53%	0-0	-
Michael Finley F · 6'7" 225 · 36	34.7	21	58%	3	1	1	1	1	1	0	3	2-2	100%	5-12	42%	3-5	60%
Fabricio Oberto C · 6'10" 245 · 34	26.0	2	50%	4	2	0	1	1	4	2	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
George Hill G · 6'3" 188 · 23	19.6	4	29%	2	3	0	0	2	2	0	2	0-0	-	2-6	33%	0-1	0%
Bruce Bowen F · 6'7" 200 · 37	28.8	2	50%	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Matt Bonner C-F · 6'10" 235 · 29	27.1	11	61%	7	1	2	0	0	0	1	6	0-0	-	1-4	25%	3-5	60%
Jacque Vaughn G · 6'1" 190 · 34	23.1	10	63%	2	6	0	0	3	3	0	2	4-4	100%	3-7	43%	0-0	-
Anthony Tolliver F · 6'8" 240 · 23	6.5	2	100%	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Ime Udoka G-F · 6'5" 220 · 31
Kurt Thomas F · 6'9" 240 · 36
Blake Ahearn G · 6'2" 190 · 24
Desmon Farmer G · 6'5" 220 · 27
Tony Parker #9 · G · 6'2" 185 · 27	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Ian Mahinmi #28 · C · 6'11" 262 · 22	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Manu Ginobili #20 · G · 6'6" 205 · 31	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	90	54%	34	19	6	5	13	0	6	28	13-17	76%	25-54	46%	9-20	45%

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26 Sacramento Kings

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
John Salmons G · 6'6" 210 · 29	42.0	31	91%	1	3	2	0	3	1	1	0	8-9	89%	7-9	78%	3-4	75%
Brad Miller C · 7'0" 261 · 33	37.6	10	45%	8	4	1	0	2	4	2	6	0-0	-	5-11	45%	0-0	-
Beno Udrih G · 6'3" 205 · 26	35.0	16	57%	5	4	3	0	5	2	0	5	6-6	100%	5-9	56%	0-2	0%
Jason Thompson F · 6'11" 250 · 22	33.7	9	35%	7	0	3	0	1	2	2	5	1-2	50%	4-13	31%	0-0	-
Mikki Moore F · 7'0" 225 · 33	20.4	2	50%	8	1	0	1	1	2	2	6	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Quincy Douby G · 6'3" 175 · 25	24.6	12	55%	2	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	1-2	50%	1-4	25%	3-6	50%
Spencer Hawes F-C · 7'1" 245 · 21	20.4	2	17%	7	0	0	2	2	3	0	7	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-2	0%
Bobby Brown · 6'2" 175 · 24	13.0	6	60%	1	2	0	0	1	1	1	0	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-0	-
Bobby Jackson G · 6'1" 185 · 36	8.9	0	0%	2	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Shelden Williams C-F · 6'9" 250 · 25	4.3	0	0%	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Donte Greene F · 6'11" 226 · 21
Kenny Thomas C-F · 6'7" 245 · 31
Kevin Martin #23 · G · 6'7" 199 · 26	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Francisco Garcia #32 · G-F · 6'7" 215 · 27	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	88	51%	42	16	9	3	17	0	9	33	16-19	84%	27-59	46%	6-15	40%

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Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE