Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, April 14, 2008

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	14	Spurs	57%	94	101
	23	Kings	43%	92	98

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
SAS	113.5	89	90.5
SAC	111.4	88	86.6

Scoring Opportunities

SAS

-12

SAC

+12

-12

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.17 58.7%

SAC

1.09 54.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	SAC
Q4 - 0:00.0	SAC		101 100%	98 0%
Q4 - 0:07.0	SAC	Salmons REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6)	101 94.8%	98 5.2%
Q4 - 0:08.0	SAC	MISS Garcia 25' 3PT Jump Shot	101 97.4%	98 2.6%
Q4 - 0:11.0	SAS	Finley Free Throw 2 of 2 (19 PTS)	101 93.9%	98 6.1%
Q4 - 0:11.0	SAS	Finley Free Throw 1 of 2 (18 PTS)	100 93.1%	98 6.9%
Q4 - 0:14.0	SAC	Salmons Free Throw 1 of 1 (29 PTS)	99 85.8%	98 14.2%
Q4 - 0:15.0	SAS	Garcia STEAL (5 STL)	99 97.2%	95 2.8%
Q4 - 0:23.0	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	99 98.5%	95 1.5%
Q4 - 0:26.0	SAC	MISS Salmons Driving Layup	99 97.7%	95 2.3%
Q4 - 0:33.0	SAC	Salmons REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	99 95.1%	95 4.9%
Q4 - 0:34.0	SAS	MISS Parker 22' Jump Shot	99 96.4%	95 3.6%
Q4 - 0:57.0	SAC	Shel. Williams Lost Ball Turnover (P4.T13)	99 95.5%	95 4.5%
Q4 - 1:08	SAS	Parker 21' Jump Shot (32 PTS) (Duncan 3 AST)	99 90.1%	95 9.9%
Q4 - 1:27	SAS	Oberto REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	97 83.3%	95 16.7%
Q4 - 1:28	SAC	MISS Salmons 8' Jump Shot	97 80.4%	95 19.6%
Q4 - 1:46	SAS	Oberto Layup (17 PTS) (Duncan 2 AST)	97 72.3%	95 27.7%
Q4 - 1:47	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	95 62.4%	95 37.6%
Q4 - 1:48	SAS	MISS Finley 3PT Jump Shot	95 53.6%	95 46.4%
Q4 - 2:11	SAC	KINGS Turnover: Shot Clock (T#12)	95 65.1%	95 34.9%
Q4 - 2:36	SAC	Moore REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	95 48.9%	95 51.1%
Q4 - 2:37	SAS	MISS Parker 9' Jump Shot	95 54.2%	95 45.8%
Q4 - 2:57	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	95 63.2%	95 36.8%
Q4 - 2:58	SAC	MISS Shel. Williams 17' Jump Shot	95 59.1%	95 40.9%
Q4 - 3:17	SAC	Garcia REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	95 48.8%	95 51.2%
Q4 - 3:18	SAS	MISS Parker 25' 3PT Jump Shot	95 53.6%	95 46.4%
Q4 - 3:32	SAS	Thomas REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	95 61.1%	95 38.9%
Q4 - 3:33	SAC	MISS Udrih 21' Jump Shot	95 58.3%	95 41.7%
Q4 - 3:47	SAS	Parker Free Throw 2 of 2 (30 PTS)	95 51.5%	95 48.5%
Q4 - 3:47	SAS	MISS Parker Free Throw 1 of 2	94 49.4%	95 50.6%
Q4 - 4:04	SAC	Salmons Foul Turnover (P1.T11)	94 51.8%	95 48.2%
Q4 - 4:14	SAC	Salmons REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	94 41.8%	95 58.2%
Q4 - 4:15	SAS	MISS Finley 3PT Jump Shot	94 44.8%	95 55.2%
Q4 - 4:31	SAC	Douby 18' Pullup Jump Shot (7 PTS)	94 51.7%	95 48.3%
Q4 - 4:53	SAS	Finley Dunk (17 PTS) (Udoka 1 AST)	94 60.4%	93 39.6%
Q4 - 4:59	SAC	Douby Poss Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T10)	92 51.6%	93 48.4%
Q4 - 5:24	SAS	Parker Driving Layup (29 PTS)	92 43.9%	93 56.1%
Q4 - 5:26	SAC	Shel. Williams Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T9)	90 36.2%	93 63.8%
Q4 - 5:44	SAS	Parker 25' 3PT Jump Shot (27 PTS) (Finley 3 AST)	90 28.5%	93 71.5%
Q4 - 6:04	SAC	Salmons Layup (26 PTS) (Shel. Williams 3 AST)	87 20.5%	93 79.5%
Q4 - 6:17	SAS	Thomas Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T12)	87 24.9%	91 75.1%
Q4 - 6:38	SAC	Garcia Driving Dunk (15 PTS) (Douby 3 AST)	87 31.8%	91 68.2%
Q4 - 6:40	SAS	Garcia STEAL (4 STL)	87 37.7%	89 62.3%
Q4 - 6:55	SAC	Douby 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Shel. Williams 2 AST)	87 46.1%	89 53.9%
Q4 - 7:10	SAS	Shel. Williams STEAL (1 STL)	87 60.6%	86 39.4%
Q4 - 7:33	SAC	Douby 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	87 67.8%	86 32.2%
Q4 - 7:50	SAC	Salmons REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	87 72.8%	84 27.2%
Q4 - 7:52	SAS	MISS Finley 25' 3PT Jump Shot	87 74.7%	84 25.3%
Q4 - 8:08	SAC	Shel. Williams Foul Turnover (P2.T8)	87 76.8%	84 23.2%
Q4 - 8:15	SAC	KINGS Rebound	87 71.9%	84 28.1%
Q4 - 8:15	SAS	MISS Vaughn 21' Jump Shot	87 73.5%	84 26.5%
Q4 - 8:37	SAC	Garcia 20' Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Douby 2 AST)	87 76.9%	84 23.1%
Q4 - 8:56	SAS	Finley 19' Jump Shot (15 PTS)	87 81.1%	82 18.9%
Q4 - 9:09	SAC	Moore 21' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Douby 1 AST)	85 76.3%	82 23.7%
Q4 - 9:27	SAS	Spurs Turnover: Shot Clock (T#9)	85 80.2%	80 19.8%
Q4 - 9:27	SAS	Spurs Rebound	85 83.9%	80 16.1%
Q4 - 9:28	SAS	MISS Vaughn 22' Jump Shot	85 81.4%	80 18.6%
Q4 - 9:54	SAC	Shel. Williams REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	85 83.9%	80 16.1%
Q4 - 9:54	SAC	Shel. Williams Tip Shot (8 PTS)	85 83.9%	80 16.1%
Q4 - 9:56	SAC	MISS Garcia 13' Jump Shot	85 88.7%	78 11.3%
Q4 - 10:02	SAC	Shel. Williams REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	85 85.5%	78 14.5%
Q4 - 10:04	SAS	MISS Finley 27' 3PT Jump Shot	85 86.4%	78 13.6%
Q4 - 10:27	SAS	Oberto REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	85 88.4%	78 11.6%
Q4 - 10:29	SAC	MISS Shel. Williams Free Throw 2 of 2	85 88.0%	78 12.0%
Q4 - 10:29	SAC	MISS Shel. Williams Free Throw 1 of 2	85 86.5%	78 13.5%
Q4 - 10:55	SAS	Duncan 5' Running Hook Shot (19 PTS) (Vaughn 1 AST)	85 85.7%	78 14.3%
Q4 - 11:00	SAS	Spurs Rebound	83 82.9%	78 17.1%
Q4 - 11:00	SAS	Garcia BLOCK (2 BLK)	83 80.3%	78 19.7%
Q4 - 11:22	SAC	Shel. Williams 7' Jump Hook Shot (6 PTS)	83 81.6%	78 18.4%
Q4 - 11:38	SAC	Shel. Williams REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	83 84.6%	76 15.4%
Q4 - 11:39	SAS	MISS Finley 25' 3PT Jump Shot	83 85.5%	76 14.5%
Q3 - 0:00.0	SAC		83 87.3%	76 12.7%
Q3 - 0:01.0	SAC	Shel. Williams REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	83 83.9%	76 16.1%
Q3 - 0:02.0	SAS	MISS Parker 12' Jump Shot	83 84.7%	76 15.3%
Q3 - 0:13.0	SAC	Salmons Free Throw 2 of 2 (24 PTS)	83 86.5%	76 13.5%
Q3 - 0:13.0	SAC	Salmons Free Throw 1 of 2 (23 PTS)	83 86.9%	75 13.1%
Q3 - 0:32.0	SAS	Parker Free Throw 1 of 1 (24 PTS)	83 88.7%	74 11.3%
Q3 - 0:39.0	SAS	Thomas REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	80 83.9%	74 16.1%
Q3 - 0:40.0	SAC	MISS Garcia 25' 3PT Jump Shot	80 83.0%	74 17.0%
Q3 - 0:45.0	SAC	Salmons REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	80 80.9%	74 19.1%
Q3 - 0:46.0	SAC	MISS Shel. Williams Free Throw 1 of 1	80 83.5%	74 16.5%
Q3 - 1:05	SAS	Parker 4' Jump Shot (21 PTS)	80 85.6%	72 14.4%
Q3 - 1:16	SAC	Garcia Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T7)	78 83.2%	72 16.8%
Q3 - 1:23	SAC	Garcia REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	78 80.2%	72 19.8%
Q3 - 1:24	SAS	MISS Parker 21' Jump Shot	78 81.1%	72 18.9%
Q3 - 1:47	SAS	Thomas REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	78 83.2%	72 16.8%
Q3 - 1:48	SAC	MISS Salmons 10' Turnaround Jump Shot	78 82.3%	72 17.7%
Q3 - 2:04	SAS	Parker Free Throw 2 of 2 (19 PTS)	78 79.0%	72 21.0%
Q3 - 2:04	SAS	Parker Free Throw 1 of 2 (18 PTS)	77 78.3%	72 21.7%
Q3 - 2:21	SAS	Thomas REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	76 76.1%	72 23.9%
Q3 - 2:22	SAS	MISS Udoka 8' Jump Shot	76 73.4%	72 26.6%
Q3 - 2:43	SAC	Hawes 20' Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Garcia 2 AST)	76 76.1%	72 23.9%
Q3 - 3:03	SAC	KINGS Rebound	76 78.6%	70 21.4%
Q3 - 3:05	SAS	MISS Finley 22' Pullup Jump Shot	76 79.6%	70 20.4%
Q3 - 3:22	SAC	Udrih 18' Pullup Jump Shot (16 PTS)	76 81.7%	70 18.3%
Q3 - 3:43	SAS	Udoka 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Parker 11 AST)	76 84.1%	68 15.9%
Q3 - 3:59	SAC	Udrih Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)	73 78.8%	68 21.2%
Q3 - 3:59	SAC	Udrih Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)	73 79.3%	67 20.7%
Q3 - 4:08	SAC	KINGS Rebound	73 80.7%	66 19.3%
Q3 - 4:09	SAS	MISS Parker 20' Jump Shot	73 81.6%	66 18.4%
Q3 - 4:21	SAC	Garcia Free Throw 1 of 1 (11 PTS)	73 83.7%	66 16.3%
Q3 - 4:23	SAS	Garcia STEAL (3 STL)	73 87.6%	63 12.4%
Q3 - 4:40	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	73 89.6%	63 10.4%
Q3 - 4:42	SAC	MISS Salmons 3PT Jump Shot	73 89.0%	63 11.0%
Q3 - 5:00	SAC	KINGS Rebound	73 87.6%	63 12.4%
Q3 - 5:00	SAS	MISS Bowen 3PT Jump Shot	73 88.3%	63 11.7%
Q3 - 5:09	SAS	Oberto REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	73 88.9%	63 11.1%
Q3 - 5:10	SAC	MISS Udrih Layup	73 88.4%	63 11.6%
Q3 - 5:26	SAS	Parker 23' Jump Shot (17 PTS)	73 87.0%	63 13.0%
Q3 - 5:50	SAC	Hawes Layup (15 PTS) (Udrih 3 AST)	71 85.2%	63 14.8%
Q3 - 6:07	SAS	Parker 3' Finger Roll Layup (15 PTS)	71 86.3%	61 13.7%
Q3 - 6:25	SAC	Udrih Driving Layup (12 PTS)	69 84.5%	61 15.5%
Q3 - 6:38	SAS	Parker 21' Jump Shot (13 PTS)	69 86.4%	59 13.6%
Q3 - 6:48	SAC	Moore Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T6)	67 84.5%	59 15.5%
Q3 - 7:14	SAS	Finley 17' Jump Shot (13 PTS)	67 81.2%	59 18.8%
Q3 - 7:38	SAC	Garcia Driving Layup (8 PTS)	65 79.2%	59 20.8%
Q3 - 7:49	SAC	KINGS Rebound	65 81.3%	57 18.7%
Q3 - 7:50	SAS	MISS Duncan Layup	65 82.1%	57 17.9%
Q3 - 7:52	SAS	Oberto REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	65 83.8%	57 16.2%
Q3 - 7:53	SAS	MISS Bowen 3PT Jump Shot	65 82.1%	57 17.9%
Q3 - 8:10	SAS	Bowen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	65 83.6%	57 16.4%
Q3 - 8:11	SAC	MISS Udrih 19' Jump Shot	65 82.8%	57 17.2%
Q3 - 8:16	SAC	KINGS Rebound	65 81.0%	57 19.0%
Q3 - 8:16	SAC	MISS Salmons Layup	65 82.8%	57 17.2%
Q3 - 8:18	SAC	Salmons REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	65 81.0%	57 19.0%
Q3 - 8:19	SAC	MISS Salmons 6' Jump Shot	65 82.8%	57 17.2%
Q3 - 8:35	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (17 PTS)	65 81.0%	57 19.0%
Q3 - 8:35	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (16 PTS)	64 80.4%	57 19.6%
Q3 - 8:47	SAS	Oberto REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	63 79.0%	57 21.0%
Q3 - 8:47	SAC	MISS Garcia Layup	63 78.1%	57 21.9%
Q3 - 9:13	SAS	Oberto Layup (15 PTS) (Parker 10 AST)	63 75.7%	57 24.3%
Q3 - 9:19	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	61 73.0%	57 27.0%
Q3 - 9:20	SAC	MISS Udrih 25' 3PT Jump Shot	61 72.0%	57 28.0%
Q3 - 9:35	SAS	Finley 17' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Parker 9 AST)	61 69.9%	57 30.1%
Q3 - 9:50	SAC	Salmons Layup (22 PTS) (Hawes 2 AST)	59 66.8%	57 33.2%
Q3 - 10:12	SAS	Parker 7' Jump Shot (11 PTS)	59 69.7%	55 30.3%
Q3 - 10:31	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	57 67.0%	55 33.0%
Q3 - 10:32	SAC	MISS Hawes 22' Jump Shot	57 65.9%	55 34.1%
Q3 - 10:50	SAS	Bowen Foul Turnover (P1.T7)	57 63.4%	55 36.6%
Q3 - 11:12	SAC	Salmons Driving Layup (20 PTS) (Hawes 1 AST)	57 67.1%	55 32.9%
Q3 - 11:25	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (15 PTS)	57 69.9%	53 30.1%
Q3 - 11:25	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2	56 69.1%	53 30.9%
Q3 - 11:41	SAC	Salmons 15' Pullup Jump Shot (18 PTS)	56 70.1%	53 29.9%
Q2 - 0:00.0	SAC		56 72.7%	51 27.3%
Q2 - 0:00.0	SAC	KINGS Rebound	56 72.7%	51 27.3%
Q2 - 0:00.0	SAC	MISS Udrih 64' 3PT Jump Shot	56 74.7%	51 25.3%
Q2 - 0:00.0	SAS	Finley 25' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Oberto 3 AST)	56 72.7%	51 27.3%
Q2 - 0:11.0	SAC	MISS Hawes 3PT Jump Shot	53 65.8%	51 34.2%
Q2 - 0:35.0	SAS	Spurs Rebound	53 66.4%	51 33.6%
Q2 - 0:35.0	SAS	Parker Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)	53 64.3%	51 35.7%
Q2 - 0:35.0	SAS	MISS Parker Free Throw 1 of 2	52 63.5%	51 36.5%
Q2 - 0:46.0	SAS	Oberto REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	52 63.4%	51 36.6%
Q2 - 0:47.0	SAC	MISS Hawes 9' Jump Hook Shot	52 62.7%	51 37.3%
Q2 - 0:58.0	SAC	Salmons REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	52 61.2%	51 38.8%
Q2 - 0:59.0	SAS	Hawes BLOCK (2 BLK)	52 61.9%	51 38.1%
Q2 - 1:05	SAS	Oberto REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	52 63.0%	51 37.0%
Q2 - 1:06	SAS	MISS Thomas 16' Jump Shot	52 61.9%	51 38.1%
Q2 - 1:23	SAS	Spurs Rebound	52 63.0%	51 37.0%
Q2 - 1:24	SAC	MISS Garcia 8' Jump Shot	52 62.5%	51 37.5%
Q2 - 1:52	SAS	Parker 22' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Bowen 1 AST)	52 61.4%	51 38.6%
Q2 - 2:09	SAC	Moore Foul Turnover (P1.T5)	50 57.6%	51 42.4%
Q2 - 2:24	SAS	Parker Driving Layup (6 PTS)	50 54.7%	51 45.3%
Q2 - 2:29	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	48 51.3%	51 48.7%
Q2 - 2:30	SAC	MISS Salmons 25' 3PT Jump Shot	48 50.4%	51 49.6%
Q2 - 2:55	SAS	Oberto Layup (13 PTS) (Parker 8 AST)	48 48.5%	51 51.5%
Q2 - 3:14	SAS	Udoka REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	46 46.2%	51 53.8%
Q2 - 3:15	SAC	MISS Moore 8' Jump Shot	46 45.2%	51 54.8%
Q2 - 3:22	SAC	Moore REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	46 42.9%	51 57.1%
Q2 - 3:23	SAS	MISS Parker 19' Jump Shot	46 43.9%	51 56.1%
Q2 - 3:34	SAS	Spurs Rebound	46 46.2%	51 53.8%
Q2 - 3:34	SAS	Garcia BLOCK (1 BLK)	46 43.9%	51 56.1%
Q2 - 3:43	SAC	Hawes 7' Running Hook Shot (13 PTS)	46 46.1%	51 53.9%
Q2 - 3:56	SAC	Hawes REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	46 48.8%	49 51.2%
Q2 - 3:56	SAS	MISS Parker Layup	46 49.8%	49 50.2%
Q2 - 4:04	SAS	Udoka REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	46 52.4%	49 47.6%
Q2 - 4:05	SAC	MISS Hawes Layup	46 51.5%	49 48.5%
Q2 - 4:17	SAC	Salmons REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	46 49.5%	49 50.5%
Q2 - 4:21	SAS	MISS Oberto 11' Jump Shot	46 50.4%	49 49.6%
Q2 - 4:37	SAC	Garcia 25' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Udrih 2 AST)	46 52.4%	49 47.6%
Q2 - 4:55	SAS	Oberto Layup (11 PTS)	46 58.1%	46 41.9%
Q2 - 5:10	SAC	Udrih 19' Jump Shot (10 PTS)	44 55.6%	46 44.4%
Q2 - 5:16	SAC	Hawes REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	44 58.1%	44 41.9%
Q2 - 5:17	SAS	MISS Barry 25' 3PT Jump Shot	44 59.0%	44 41.0%
Q2 - 5:34	SAC	Salmons 16' Turnaround Jump Shot (16 PTS)	44 61.1%	44 38.9%
Q2 - 5:52	SAC	Garcia REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	44 63.5%	42 36.5%
Q2 - 5:54	SAS	MISS Barry 25' 3PT Jump Shot	44 64.4%	42 35.6%
Q2 - 6:18	SAC	Salmons Reverse Slam Dunk (14 PTS)	44 66.5%	42 33.5%
Q2 - 6:33	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)	44 68.4%	40 31.6%
Q2 - 6:33	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)	43 67.8%	40 32.2%
Q2 - 6:46	SAC	Salmons Free Throw 1 of 1 (12 PTS)	42 66.5%	40 33.5%
Q2 - 6:54	SAC	Garcia REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	42 70.7%	37 29.3%
Q2 - 6:56	SAS	MISS Barry 25' 3PT Jump Shot	42 71.6%	37 28.4%
Q2 - 7:20	SAC	Udrih 11' Jump Shot (8 PTS)	42 72.9%	37 27.1%
Q2 - 7:41	SAS	Oberto 18' Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Finley 2 AST)	42 74.8%	35 25.2%
Q2 - 7:51	SAS	Bowen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	40 72.9%	35 27.1%
Q2 - 7:52	SAC	MISS Hawes 17' Jump Shot	40 72.2%	35 27.8%
Q2 - 8:10	SAS	Garcia STEAL (2 STL)	40 70.2%	35 29.8%
Q2 - 8:24	SAC	Hawes 18' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Shel. Williams 1 AST)	40 72.6%	35 27.4%
Q2 - 8:39	SAC	Garcia REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	40 74.4%	33 25.6%
Q2 - 8:40	SAS	MISS Vaughn 22' Jump Shot	40 75.0%	33 25.0%
Q2 - 8:44	SAS	Spurs Rebound	40 76.5%	33 23.5%
Q2 - 8:46	SAS	MISS Thomas 17' Jump Shot	40 75.0%	33 25.0%
Q2 - 9:04	SAS	Oberto REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	40 76.1%	33 23.9%
Q2 - 9:05	SAC	MISS Garcia 16' Jump Shot	40 75.5%	33 24.5%
Q2 - 9:14	SAS	Garcia STEAL (1 STL)	40 74.1%	33 25.9%
Q2 - 9:29	SAC	Hawes 8' Jump Hook Shot (9 PTS)	40 76.2%	33 23.8%
Q2 - 9:47	SAS	Oberto 7' Turnaround Jump Shot (7 PTS)	40 77.8%	31 22.2%
Q2 - 10:09	SAC	Hawes 19' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Garcia 1 AST)	38 75.8%	31 24.2%
Q2 - 10:29	SAS	Finley 14' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Oberto 2 AST)	38 77.4%	29 22.6%
Q2 - 10:41	SAC	Shel. Williams Foul Turnover (P1.T4)	36 75.8%	29 24.2%
Q2 - 10:49	SAC	Douby REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	36 73.7%	29 26.3%
Q2 - 10:50	SAS	MISS Finley 19' Jump Shot	36 74.4%	29 25.6%
Q2 - 11:02	SAC	Salmons Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)	36 75.3%	29 24.7%
Q2 - 11:02	SAC	MISS Salmons Free Throw 1 of 2	36 75.6%	28 24.4%
Q2 - 11:19	SAS	Vaughn Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T4)	36 75.4%	28 24.6%
Q2 - 11:41	SAC	Salmons Driving Layup (8 PTS)	36 77.2%	28 22.8%
Q2 - 11:47	SAC	Jump Ball Shel. Williams vs. Udoka: Tip to Johnson	36 78.8%	26 21.2%
Q1 - 0:00.0	SAS		36 78.8%	26 21.2%
Q1 - 0:00.0	SAS	Spurs Rebound	36 80.4%	26 19.6%
Q1 - 0:00.0	SAS	MISS Udoka 27' 3PT Jump Shot	36 79.3%	26 20.7%
Q1 - 0:02.0	SAC	Shel. Williams Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	36 79.7%	26 20.3%
Q1 - 0:02.0	SAC	Shel. Williams Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	36 80.1%	25 19.9%
Q1 - 0:25.0	SAS	Parker Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	36 81.6%	24 18.4%
Q1 - 0:25.0	SAS	Parker Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	35 81.3%	24 18.7%
Q1 - 0:42.0	SAC	Moore 7' Jump Hook Shot (4 PTS) (Salmons 3 AST)	34 79.8%	24 20.2%
Q1 - 0:50.0	SAS	Parker Driving Layup (2 PTS)	34 81.6%	22 18.4%
Q1 - 1:03	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	32 79.7%	22 20.3%
Q1 - 1:04	SAC	MISS Douby 20' Jump Shot	32 79.4%	22 20.6%
Q1 - 1:29	SAS	Udoka 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Parker 7 AST)	32 78.5%	22 21.5%
Q1 - 1:40	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	29 74.8%	22 25.2%
Q1 - 1:41	SAC	Garcia REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	29 73.4%	22 26.6%
Q1 - 1:41	SAC	MISS Garcia Tip Shot	29 74.3%	22 25.7%
Q1 - 1:42	SAC	MISS Moore 23' Jump Shot	29 74.3%	22 25.7%
Q1 - 1:57	SAC	Douby REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	29 73.4%	22 26.6%
Q1 - 1:57	SAC	MISS Garcia 18' Jump Shot	29 74.3%	22 25.7%
Q1 - 2:00	SAC	Shel. Williams REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	29 73.4%	22 26.6%
Q1 - 2:02	SAC	MISS Salmons Layup	29 74.5%	22 25.5%
Q1 - 2:22	SAS	Finley 14' Fadeaway Jumper (4 PTS)	29 73.3%	22 26.7%
Q1 - 2:31	SAS	Udoka REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	27 71.3%	22 28.7%
Q1 - 2:32	SAC	MISS Douby 21' Jump Shot	27 70.8%	22 29.2%
Q1 - 2:39	SAC	Moore REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	27 69.5%	22 30.5%
Q1 - 2:40	SAC	MISS Douby 17' Jump Shot	27 70.8%	22 29.2%
Q1 - 2:58	SAS	Finley 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	27 69.5%	22 30.5%
Q1 - 3:15	SAC	Garcia Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)	25 67.2%	22 32.8%
Q1 - 3:18	SAS	Salmons STEAL (2 STL)	25 70.8%	19 29.2%
Q1 - 3:35	SAC	Udrih Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	25 72.9%	19 27.1%
Q1 - 3:35	SAC	Udrih Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	25 73.2%	18 26.8%
Q1 - 3:54	SAS	Udoka 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Parker 6 AST)	25 74.5%	17 25.5%
Q1 - 4:08	SAC	Udrih Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	22 71.1%	17 28.9%
Q1 - 4:08	SAC	Udrih Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	22 71.3%	16 28.7%
Q1 - 4:09	SAC	Udrih REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	22 72.5%	15 27.5%
Q1 - 4:10	SAC	MISS Udrih 7' Jump Shot	22 73.9%	15 26.1%
Q1 - 4:27	SAS	Duncan 4' Jump Bank Shot (12 PTS) (Parker 5 AST)	22 72.5%	15 27.5%
Q1 - 4:36	SAS	Thomas REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	20 71.1%	15 28.9%
Q1 - 4:37	SAC	MISS Hawes 9' Running Jump Shot	20 70.4%	15 29.6%
Q1 - 4:48	SAC	KINGS Rebound	20 68.8%	15 31.2%
Q1 - 4:49	SAS	MISS Udoka 19' Jump Shot	20 69.5%	15 30.5%
Q1 - 5:08	SAS	Bowen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	20 70.5%	15 29.5%
Q1 - 5:09	SAC	MISS Garcia 19' Jump Shot	20 70.0%	15 30.0%
Q1 - 5:19	SAS	Salmons STEAL (1 STL)	20 68.6%	15 31.4%
Q1 - 5:34	SAC	Udrih Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T3)	20 70.6%	15 29.4%
Q1 - 5:36	SAC	Udrih REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	20 68.6%	15 31.4%
Q1 - 5:37	SAS	Hawes BLOCK (1 BLK)	20 69.2%	15 30.8%
Q1 - 5:58	SAC	Salmons Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	20 70.6%	15 29.4%
Q1 - 5:58	SAC	Salmons Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	20 70.9%	14 29.1%
Q1 - 6:16	SAC	Hawes REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	20 71.6%	13 28.4%
Q1 - 6:17	SAS	MISS Parker 20' Jump Shot	20 72.2%	13 27.8%
Q1 - 6:41	SAC	Udrih Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	20 73.3%	13 26.7%
Q1 - 6:41	SAC	Udrih Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	20 73.6%	12 26.4%
Q1 - 6:52	SAS	Bowen 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Parker 4 AST)	20 74.8%	11 25.2%
Q1 - 7:02	SAS	MISS Finley Free Throw Technical	17 71.2%	11 28.8%
Q1 - 7:23	SAC	Salmons 16' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Udrih 1 AST)	17 71.2%	11 28.8%
Q1 - 7:37	SAS	Duncan 7' Jump Hook Shot (10 PTS)	17 72.6%	9 27.4%
Q1 - 7:48	SAS	Bowen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	15 71.3%	9 28.7%
Q1 - 7:49	SAC	MISS Moore 22' Jump Shot	15 70.7%	9 29.3%
Q1 - 8:04	SAS	Duncan Layup (8 PTS) (Oberto 1 AST)	15 69.9%	9 30.1%
Q1 - 8:23	SAC	Hawes 21' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Salmons 1 AST)	13 68.4%	9 31.6%
Q1 - 8:46	SAS	Duncan 21' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Parker 3 AST)	13 69.8%	7 30.2%
Q1 - 9:08	SAC	Salmons 15' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	11 68.4%	7 31.6%
Q1 - 9:21	SAS	Duncan Traveling Turnover (P1.T1)	11 69.6%	5 30.4%
Q1 - 9:31	SAC	Udrih Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T2)	11 71.6%	5 28.4%
Q1 - 9:40	SAC	Salmons REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	11 69.6%	5 30.4%
Q1 - 9:41	SAS	MISS Bowen 3PT Jump Shot	11 70.2%	5 29.8%
Q1 - 9:49	SAC	Hawes Free Throw 2 of 2 (3 PTS)	11 71.6%	5 28.4%
Q1 - 9:49	SAC	MISS Hawes Free Throw 1 of 2	11 72.0%	4 28.0%
Q1 - 10:05	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	11 71.1%	4 28.9%
Q1 - 10:05	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	10 70.7%	4 29.3%
Q1 - 10:13	SAC	Hawes 8' Jump Bank Hook Shot (2 PTS)	9 69.8%	4 30.2%
Q1 - 10:26	SAS	Duncan 15' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Parker 2 AST)	9 71.1%	2 28.9%
Q1 - 10:40	SAC	Moore 16' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	7 69.8%	2 30.2%
Q1 - 10:59	SAS	Oberto Layup (5 PTS) (Finley 1 AST)	7 71.1%	0 28.9%
Q1 - 11:03	SAC	Garcia Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)	5 69.4%	0 30.6%
Q1 - 11:14	SAS	Oberto Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)	5 68.0%	0 32.0%
Q1 - 11:28	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	2 64.6%	0 35.4%
Q1 - 11:29	SAC	MISS Garcia 20' Jump Shot	2 64.1%	0 35.9%
Q1 - 11:43	SAS	Bowen 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Parker 1 AST)	2 63.0%	0 37.0%
Q1 - 12:00	SAC	Jump Ball Moore vs. Duncan: Tip to Oberto	0 61.2%	0 38.8%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.17 58.7%

SAC

1.09 54.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

SAS

79%

SAC

67%

Midrange

SAS

49%

SAC

49%

3PT | Effective 3PT

SAS

9.0

32%

47%

SAC

3.0

20%

30%

Free Throws

SAS

81%

SAC

80%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Parker	32	62%	16.0 / 26
M. Finley	19	59%	9.5 / 16
T. Duncan	19	86%	9.5 / 11
F. Oberto	17	85%	8.5 / 10
I. Udoka	9	75%	4.5 / 6
B. Bowen	5	50%	2.5 / 5
K. Thomas	0	-	0.0 / 3
J. Vaughn	0	-	0.0 / 4
B. Barry	0	-	0.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Kings

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Salmons	29	66%	14.5 / 22
S. Hawes	17	57%	8.5 / 15
B. Udrih	16	57%	8.0 / 14
F. Garcia	15	47%	7.5 / 16
S. Williams	8	67%	4.0 / 6
Q. Douby	7	50%	3.5 / 7
M. Moore	6	50%	3.0 / 6

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

SAS

-12

SAC

+12

-12

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.17 58.7%

SAC

1.09 54.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	106.5 107.2	SAS 113.5 +2.1 SAC 111.4
Pace	89.5 95.0	SAS 90.5 +4.0 SAC 86.6
Avg. Poss. Time	16.5 15.0	SAS 15.9 +0.7 SAC 16.6
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	50.4% 50.3%	SAS 56.0% +4.7% SAC 51.3%
TO %	13.4% 16.0%	SAS 13.4% SAC 13.0% +0.4%
ORB %	23.4% 25.1%	SAS 16.0% SAC 27.0% +11.0%
FTrt	27.6 34.6	SAS 28.0 SAC 32.9 +4.9
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	58.5% 51.5%	SAS 59.0% +11.6% SAC 47.4%
STL %	7.1% 8.3%	SAS 6.7% SAC 9.1% +2.4%
BLK %	6.5% 6.5%	SAS 3.0% SAC 7.1% +4.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	52.8% 54.1%	SAS 58.7% +4.3% SAC 54.4%
Rim FG%	60.6% 58.2%	SAS 78.9% +12.2% SAC 66.7%
Mid FG%	40.4% 40.7%	SAS 48.6% SAC 48.9% +0.3%
3P %	36.9% 37.3%	SAS 31.6% +11.6% SAC 20.0%
FT %	76.1% 79.8%	SAS 81.0% +1.0% SAC 80.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	30.8% 36.7%	SAS 25.3% SAC 27.6% +2.3%
Mid Att. %	44.1% 42.5%	SAS 49.3% +9.9% SAC 59.2%
3P Att. %	25.1% 20.8%	SAS 25.3% +12.2% SAC 13.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	SAS	SAC
Possessions	89	88
Possession Minutes	23.6	24.4
Points	101	98
Rebounds	31	31
Assists	23	18
Steals	6	8
Blocks	2	4
Turnovers (Team)	12 (1)	12 (1)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	4 (5)	10 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	27 (2)	21 (6)
Field Goals	39-75	38-76
At-the-Rim FG	15-19	14-21
Midrange FG	18-37	22-45
2-Point FG	33-56	36-66
3-Point FG	6-19	2-10
Free Throws	17-21	20-25
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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14 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Michael Finley G · 6'7" 225 · 35	38.2	19	59%	3	3	0	0	1	3	0	3	2-3	67%	7-9	78%	1-6	17%
Tony Parker G · 6'2" 185 · 26	37.3	32	62%	3	11	2	0	1	2	0	3	7-9	78%	11-20	55%	1-2	50%
Fabricio Oberto C · 6'10" 245 · 33	35.5	17	85%	8	3	1	0	3	2	2	6	1-1	100%	8-10	80%	0-0	-
Bruce Bowen F · 6'7" 200 · 37	34.1	5	50%	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	4	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-4	25%
Tim Duncan F · 6'11" 250 · 32	25.4	19	86%	5	3	2	1	2	6	1	4	7-8	88%	6-7	86%	0-0	-
Kurt Thomas F · 6'9" 240 · 36	28.6	0	0%	5	0	1	1	1	4	1	4	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Ime Udoka G-F · 6'5" 220 · 31	19.9	9	75%	3	1	0	0	1	4	0	3	0-0	-	0-2	0%	3-4	75%
Jacque Vaughn G · 6'1" 190 · 33	10.9	0	0%	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-4	0%	0-0	-
Matt Bonner C-F · 6'10" 235 · 28	6.3	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Brent Barry G · 6'7" 210 · 36	3.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-3	0%
Damon Stoudamire G · 5'10" 171 · 35
DerMarr Johnson F-G · 6'9" 210 · 28
Bobby Jones F · 6'7" 215 · 24
Ian Mahinmi #28 · C · 6'11" 262 · 21	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Manu Ginobili #20 · G · 6'6" 205 · 31	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Robert Horry #25 · F-C · 6'10" 240 · 38	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	101	59%	31	23	6	2	12	0	4	27	17-21	81%	33-56	59%	6-19	32%

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14 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Michael Finley G · 6'7" 225 · 35	38.2	19	59%	3	3	0	0	1	3	0	3	2-3	67%	7-9	78%	1-6	17%
Tony Parker G · 6'2" 185 · 26	37.3	32	62%	3	11	2	0	1	2	0	3	7-9	78%	11-20	55%	1-2	50%
Fabricio Oberto C · 6'10" 245 · 33	35.5	17	85%	8	3	1	0	3	2	2	6	1-1	100%	8-10	80%	0-0	-
Bruce Bowen F · 6'7" 200 · 37	34.1	5	50%	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	4	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-4	25%
Tim Duncan F · 6'11" 250 · 32	25.4	19	86%	5	3	2	1	2	6	1	4	7-8	88%	6-7	86%	0-0	-
Kurt Thomas F · 6'9" 240 · 36	28.6	0	0%	5	0	1	1	1	4	1	4	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Ime Udoka G-F · 6'5" 220 · 31	19.9	9	75%	3	1	0	0	1	4	0	3	0-0	-	0-2	0%	3-4	75%
Jacque Vaughn G · 6'1" 190 · 33	10.9	0	0%	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-4	0%	0-0	-
Matt Bonner C-F · 6'10" 235 · 28	6.3	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Brent Barry G · 6'7" 210 · 36	3.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-3	0%
Damon Stoudamire G · 5'10" 171 · 35
DerMarr Johnson F-G · 6'9" 210 · 28
Bobby Jones F · 6'7" 215 · 24
Ian Mahinmi #28 · C · 6'11" 262 · 21	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Manu Ginobili #20 · G · 6'6" 205 · 31	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Robert Horry #25 · F-C · 6'10" 240 · 38	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	101	59%	31	23	6	2	12	0	4	27	17-21	81%	33-56	59%	6-19	32%

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23 Sacramento Kings

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Francisco Garcia G · 6'7" 215 · 26	45.1	15	47%	6	3	5	2	2	2	1	5	2-2	100%	5-13	38%	1-3	33%
John Salmons F · 6'6" 210 · 28	44.4	29	66%	10	3	2	0	1	4	4	6	7-8	88%	11-17	65%	0-2	0%
Mikki Moore F · 7'0" 225 · 32	34.4	6	50%	3	0	0	0	2	4	1	2	0-0	-	3-6	50%	0-0	-
Spencer Hawes C · 7'1" 245 · 20	33.4	17	57%	3	3	0	2	0	1	0	3	1-2	50%	8-13	62%	0-1	0%
Beno Udrih G · 6'3" 205 · 26	31.6	16	57%	2	3	0	0	2	2	1	1	8-8	100%	4-8	50%	0-2	0%
Shelden Williams C-F · 6'9" 250 · 24	25.9	8	67%	5	3	1	0	4	4	2	3	2-5	40%	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Quincy Douby G · 6'3" 175 · 24	18.4	7	50%	2	3	0	0	1	1	1	1	0-0	-	2-5	40%	1-2	50%
Anthony Johnson G · 6'3" 195 · 34	4.9	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Lorenzen Wright F-C · 6'11" 255 · 32	2.1	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Metta World Peace F · 6'7" 260 · 28
Kevin Martin G · 6'7" 199 · 25
Kenny Thomas C-F · 6'7" 245 · 31
Shareef Abdur-Rahim #3 · F · 6'9" 245 · 31	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Brad Miller #52 · C-F · 7'0" 261 · 32	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	98	54%	31	18	8	4	12	0	10	21	20-25	80%	36-66	55%	2-10	20%

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Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE