Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, March 17, 2008

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	22	Hawks	33%	94	105
	15	Wizards	67%	100	96

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
ATL	126.5	83	84.1
WAS	115.7	83	83.1

Scoring Opportunities

ATL

+11

-10

WAS

+16

-9

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

1.22 61.0%

WAS

1.05 52.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	ATL	WAS
Q4 - 0:00.0	ATL		105 100%	96 0%
Q4 - 0:11.0	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	105 99.9%	96 0.1%
Q4 - 0:12.0	WAS	MISS Pecherov 9' Jump Shot	105 99.9%	96 0.1%
Q4 - 0:14.0	WAS	Pecherov REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	105 99.9%	96 0.1%
Q4 - 0:15.0	WAS	MISS Pecherov 15' Jump Shot	105 99.9%	96 0.1%
Q4 - 0:24.0	ATL	Bibby Free Throw 2 of 2 (23 PTS)	105 99.9%	96 0.1%
Q4 - 0:24.0	ATL	Bibby Free Throw 1 of 2 (22 PTS)	104 99.9%	96 0.1%
Q4 - 0:25.0	WAS	Daniels 1' Driving Layup (8 PTS)	103 99.8%	96 0.2%
Q4 - 0:31.0	ATL	Smith Free Throw 1 of 1 (17 PTS)	103 99.8%	94 0.2%
Q4 - 0:38.0	WAS	Jamison Free Throw 2 of 2 (25 PTS)	100 98.8%	94 1.2%
Q4 - 0:38.0	WAS	Jamison Free Throw 1 of 2 (24 PTS)	100 98.9%	93 1.1%
Q4 - 0:43.0	WAS	Stevenson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	100 99.2%	92 0.8%
Q4 - 0:44.0	ATL	MISS Johnson 25' 3PT Jump Shot	100 99.3%	92 0.7%
Q4 - 1:07	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	100 99.1%	92 0.9%
Q4 - 1:08	WAS	MISS Butler 7' Jump Shot	100 98.8%	92 1.2%
Q4 - 1:13	WAS	WIZARDS Rebound	100 97.8%	92 2.2%
Q4 - 1:13	WAS	MISS Stevenson 6' Jump Shot	100 98.6%	92 1.4%
Q4 - 1:22	WAS	Jamison REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6)	100 97.2%	92 2.8%
Q4 - 1:24	WAS	MISS Jamison 16' Jump Shot	100 98.1%	92 1.9%
Q4 - 1:34	WAS	Jump Ball Haywood vs. Bibby: Tip to Daniels	100 96.5%	92 3.5%
Q4 - 1:46	ATL	Hawks Rebound	100 97.5%	92 2.5%
Q4 - 1:46	WAS	MISS Jamison 1' Layup	100 97.1%	92 2.9%
Q4 - 2:04	WAS	WIZARDS Rebound	100 94.9%	92 5.1%
Q4 - 2:04	ATL	MISS Horford 7' Jump Shot	100 95.8%	92 4.2%
Q4 - 2:24	ATL	Childress REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	100 97.3%	92 2.7%
Q4 - 2:25	WAS	MISS Butler 16' Jump Shot	100 96.7%	92 3.3%
Q4 - 2:38	ATL	Johnson 16' Jump Shot (18 PTS)	100 94.6%	92 5.4%
Q4 - 3:00	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	98 91.2%	92 8.8%
Q4 - 3:01	WAS	MISS Jamison 19' Jump Shot	98 89.7%	92 10.3%
Q4 - 3:29	ATL	Horford 1' Layup (12 PTS) (Childress 3 AST)	98 85.2%	92 14.8%
Q4 - 3:47	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:6 Def:9)	96 75.7%	92 24.3%
Q4 - 3:48	WAS	MISS Butler 25' 3PT Jump Shot	96 73.5%	92 26.5%
Q4 - 4:13	WAS	Haywood REBOUND (Off:5 Def:4)	96 68.4%	92 31.6%
Q4 - 4:14	ATL	MISS Bibby 20' Jump Shot	96 71.0%	92 29.0%
Q4 - 4:40	WAS	Stevenson Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS)	96 76.6%	92 23.4%
Q4 - 4:40	WAS	Stevenson Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)	96 78.0%	91 22.0%
Q4 - 4:56	WAS	Songaila REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	96 82.5%	90 17.5%
Q4 - 4:57	ATL	MISS Smith 9' Jump Shot	96 84.2%	90 15.8%
Q4 - 5:22	WAS	Butler Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T9)	96 83.2%	90 16.8%
Q4 - 5:26	ATL	Jamison STEAL (2 STL)	96 77.8%	90 22.2%
Q4 - 5:29	ATL	Childress REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	96 83.2%	90 16.8%
Q4 - 5:30	ATL	MISS Bibby 17' Jump Shot	96 79.6%	90 20.4%
Q4 - 5:36	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:6 Def:8)	96 83.3%	90 16.7%
Q4 - 5:37	ATL	MISS Smith 24' 3PT Jump Shot	96 79.6%	90 20.4%
Q4 - 5:59	WAS	Butler 1' Putback Layup (12 PTS)	96 83.4%	90 16.6%
Q4 - 6:01	WAS	Butler REBOUND (Off:4 Def:3)	96 83.3%	88 16.7%
Q4 - 6:02	WAS	MISS Butler 3' Layup	96 86.4%	88 13.6%
Q4 - 6:19	ATL	Bibby 25' 3PT Jump Shot (21 PTS) (Johnson 10 AST)	96 83.5%	88 16.5%
Q4 - 6:37	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:5 Def:8)	93 74.5%	88 25.5%
Q4 - 6:38	WAS	MISS Songaila 2' Layup	93 72.4%	88 27.6%
Q4 - 6:56	WAS	Jamison REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	93 67.5%	88 32.5%
Q4 - 6:57	ATL	MISS Johnson 18' Jump Shot	93 69.7%	88 30.3%
Q4 - 7:14	WAS	Stevenson 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Butler 8 AST)	93 71.1%	88 28.9%
Q4 - 7:22	WAS	Butler REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)	93 80.5%	85 19.5%
Q4 - 7:23	ATL	MISS Johnson 20' Jump Shot	93 82.0%	85 18.0%
Q4 - 7:50	WAS	Songaila 2' Layup (4 PTS) (Butler 7 AST)	93 85.1%	85 14.9%
Q4 - 8:10	ATL	Johnson 9' Jump Shot (16 PTS)	93 85.5%	83 14.5%
Q4 - 8:28	WAS	Jamison Free Throw 2 of 2 (23 PTS)	91 82.2%	83 17.8%
Q4 - 8:28	WAS	Jamison Free Throw 1 of 2 (22 PTS)	91 83.0%	82 17.0%
Q4 - 8:38	ATL	Williams 6' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Horford 6 AST)	91 85.7%	81 14.3%
Q4 - 8:59	WAS	Songaila Driving Layup (2 PTS)	89 82.4%	81 17.6%
Q4 - 9:21	ATL	Johnson 15' Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Childress 2 AST)	89 83.4%	79 16.6%
Q4 - 9:39	WAS	Young 18' Fadeaway Jumper (4 PTS)	87 80.1%	79 19.9%
Q4 - 10:09	ATL	Childress 24' 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Johnson 9 AST)	87 81.4%	77 18.6%
Q4 - 10:22	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:5 Def:7)	84 73.9%	77 26.1%
Q4 - 10:23	WAS	MISS Young 8' Jump Shot	84 72.5%	77 27.5%
Q4 - 10:40	WAS	McGuire REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	84 69.0%	77 31.0%
Q4 - 10:41	ATL	MISS Law 20' Jump Shot	84 70.6%	77 29.4%
Q4 - 10:57	WAS	Jamison Double Dribble Turnover (P3.T8)	84 74.0%	77 26.0%
Q4 - 11:15	WAS	WIZARDS Rebound	84 67.6%	77 32.4%
Q4 - 11:16	ATL	MISS Pachulia 17' Jump Shot	84 69.1%	77 30.9%
Q4 - 11:36	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	84 72.4%	77 27.6%
Q4 - 11:37	WAS	MISS Mason Jr. 25' 3PT Jump Shot	84 71.0%	77 29.0%
Q4 - 11:43	ATL	Songaila STEAL (1 STL)	84 67.7%	77 32.3%
Q3 - 0:00.0	WAS		84 72.5%	77 27.5%
Q3 - 0:00.0	WAS	WIZARDS Rebound	84 67.7%	77 32.3%
Q3 - 0:00.0	ATL	MISS Johnson 18' Jump Shot	84 69.2%	77 30.8%
Q3 - 0:13.0	ATL	Childress REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	84 70.3%	77 29.7%
Q3 - 0:14.0	WAS	MISS Songaila 11' Jump Shot	84 69.0%	77 31.0%
Q3 - 0:30.0	ATL	West Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)	84 65.9%	77 34.1%
Q3 - 0:30.0	ATL	MISS West Free Throw 1 of 2	83 64.8%	77 35.2%
Q3 - 0:44.0	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	83 65.9%	77 34.1%
Q3 - 0:45.0	WAS	MISS Jamison 15' Jump Shot	83 64.5%	77 35.5%
Q3 - 1:01	ATL	Bibby 24' 3PT Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Johnson 8 AST)	83 59.1%	77 40.9%
Q3 - 1:16	ATL	Bibby REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	80 49.7%	77 50.3%
Q3 - 1:17	WAS	MISS Jamison 25' 3PT Jump Shot	80 48.2%	77 51.8%
Q3 - 1:31	ATL	Pachulia 1' Layup (7 PTS) (Bibby 3 AST)	80 44.7%	77 55.3%
Q3 - 1:58	WAS	Mason Jr. 20' Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Stevenson 3 AST)	78 40.1%	77 59.9%
Q3 - 2:10	ATL	Horford Foul Turnover (P3.T8)	78 43.2%	75 56.8%
Q3 - 2:12	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	78 48.3%	75 51.7%
Q3 - 2:13	ATL	MISS Johnson 3' Jump Shot	78 44.8%	75 55.2%
Q3 - 2:27	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:5 Def:6)	78 48.3%	75 51.7%
Q3 - 2:27	WAS	MISS Jamison 16' Jump Shot	78 46.8%	75 53.2%
Q3 - 2:39	ATL	Childress 1' Layup (13 PTS)	78 43.3%	75 56.7%
Q3 - 2:42	ATL	Childress REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	76 39.2%	75 60.8%
Q3 - 2:43	ATL	MISS Johnson 25' 3PT Jump Shot	76 35.9%	75 64.1%
Q3 - 3:00	WAS	Jamison 22' Jump Shot (21 PTS)	76 39.2%	75 60.8%
Q3 - 3:24	ATL	Johnson 20' Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Horford 5 AST)	76 43.0%	73 57.0%
Q3 - 3:30	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:5 Def:5)	74 38.9%	73 61.1%
Q3 - 3:31	ATL	MISS Johnson 19' Jump Shot	74 35.8%	73 64.2%
Q3 - 3:51	WAS	Jamison 18' Jump Shot (19 PTS) (Daniels 3 AST)	74 38.9%	73 61.1%
Q3 - 4:00	ATL	Stevenson STEAL (2 STL)	74 43.0%	71 57.0%
Q3 - 4:10	WAS	Stevenson 25' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Butler 6 AST)	74 46.7%	71 53.3%
Q3 - 4:29	WAS	Jamison REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	74 54.7%	68 45.3%
Q3 - 4:30	ATL	MISS Childress 3' Layup	74 56.2%	68 43.8%
Q3 - 4:52	WAS	Haywood Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T7)	74 59.7%	68 40.3%
Q3 - 5:18	ATL	Childress Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T6)	74 53.9%	68 46.1%
Q3 - 5:28	ATL	Williams Free Throw Flagrant 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	74 58.4%	68 41.6%
Q3 - 5:28	ATL	MISS Williams Free Throw Flagrant 1 of 2	73 57.6%	68 42.4%
Q3 - 5:33	WAS	Jamison 1' Layup (17 PTS)	73 54.3%	68 45.7%
Q3 - 5:35	WAS	Jamison REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	73 58.0%	66 42.0%
Q3 - 5:37	WAS	MISS Stevenson 25' 3PT Jump Shot	73 61.1%	66 38.9%
Q3 - 6:03	ATL	Bibby 26' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Johnson 7 AST)	73 56.5%	66 43.5%
Q3 - 6:08	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	70 48.9%	66 51.1%
Q3 - 6:11	WAS	MISS Stevenson 24' 3PT Jump Shot	70 47.6%	66 52.4%
Q3 - 6:30	ATL	Horford 19' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Bibby 2 AST)	70 44.7%	66 55.3%
Q3 - 6:50	WAS	Butler 1' Driving Layup (10 PTS)	68 41.1%	66 58.9%
Q3 - 6:58	WAS	Jamison REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	68 44.7%	64 55.3%
Q3 - 6:58	WAS	MISS Haywood 3' Jump Shot	68 47.7%	64 52.3%
Q3 - 7:19	WAS	WIZARDS Rebound	68 43.7%	64 56.3%
Q3 - 7:19	ATL	MISS Johnson 19' Jump Shot	68 45.0%	64 55.0%
Q3 - 7:42	WAS	Stevenson 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Butler 5 AST)	68 48.1%	64 51.9%
Q3 - 8:04	ATL	Childress 24' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Horford 4 AST)	68 54.6%	61 45.4%
Q3 - 8:20	WAS	Jamison 6' Running Bank Hook Shot (15 PTS) (Butler 4 AST)	65 47.6%	61 52.4%
Q3 - 8:35	ATL	Childress 1' Dunk (8 PTS) (Williams 2 AST)	65 50.8%	59 49.2%
Q3 - 8:40	WAS	Haywood Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T6)	63 47.6%	59 52.4%
Q3 - 9:05	ATL	Childress 5' Running Jump Shot (6 PTS)	63 42.4%	59 57.6%
Q3 - 9:17	WAS	Jamison 2' Layup (13 PTS) (Daniels 2 AST)	61 39.0%	59 61.0%
Q3 - 9:44	ATL	Johnson 26' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Horford 3 AST)	61 42.5%	57 57.5%
Q3 - 9:49	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:4 Def:5)	58 35.6%	57 64.4%
Q3 - 9:50	ATL	MISS Williams 20' Jump Shot	58 33.3%	57 66.7%
Q3 - 10:11	ATL	Hawks Rebound	58 35.2%	57 64.8%
Q3 - 10:12	WAS	MISS Jamison 21' Jump Shot	58 34.1%	57 65.9%
Q3 - 10:30	ATL	Williams 19' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Horford 2 AST)	58 31.6%	57 68.4%
Q3 - 10:38	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)	56 29.0%	57 71.0%
Q3 - 10:39	ATL	MISS Williams 21' Jump Shot	56 26.8%	57 73.2%
Q3 - 11:03	WAS	Stevenson Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	56 28.5%	57 71.5%
Q3 - 11:03	WAS	Stevenson Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	56 29.1%	56 70.9%
Q3 - 11:21	ATL	Horford 10' Jump Shot (8 PTS)	56 31.3%	55 68.7%
Q3 - 11:40	WAS	Haywood Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)	54 28.6%	55 71.4%
Q3 - 11:40	WAS	Haywood Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)	54 29.4%	54 70.6%
Q3 - 11:40	WAS	Haywood REBOUND (Off:5 Def:3)	54 31.3%	53 68.7%
Q3 - 11:40	WAS	MISS Daniels 4' Jump Shot	54 33.5%	53 66.5%
Q2 - 0:00.0	ATL		54 31.3%	53 68.7%
Q2 - 0:00.0	ATL	Childress REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	54 34.6%	53 65.4%
Q2 - 0:00.0	WAS	MISS Songaila 1' Layup	54 33.6%	53 66.4%
Q2 - 0:01.0	WAS	Songaila REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	54 31.8%	53 68.2%
Q2 - 0:02.0	WAS	MISS Jamison 18' Jump Shot	54 33.2%	53 66.8%
Q2 - 0:17.0	WAS	Butler REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)	54 31.8%	53 68.2%
Q2 - 0:18.0	ATL	MISS Childress Free Throw 2 of 2	54 32.0%	53 68.0%
Q2 - 0:18.0	ATL	Childress Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)	54 34.2%	53 65.8%
Q2 - 0:32.0	WAS	Haywood 10' Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Stevenson 2 AST)	53 30.9%	53 69.1%
Q2 - 0:47.0	ATL	Horford 5' Fadeaway Jumper (6 PTS)	53 34.7%	51 65.3%
Q2 - 0:59.0	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	51 30.9%	51 69.1%
Q2 - 1:01	WAS	MISS Jamison Free Throw 1 of 1	51 30.4%	51 69.6%
Q2 - 1:15	ATL	Smith 2' Layup (14 PTS)	51 34.8%	49 65.2%
Q2 - 1:35	WAS	Mason Jr. 20' Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Butler 3 AST)	49 30.6%	49 69.4%
Q2 - 1:52	ATL	Horford 1' Slam Dunk (4 PTS) (Johnson 6 AST)	49 34.8%	47 65.2%
Q2 - 2:11	WAS	Butler Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)	47 31.0%	47 69.0%
Q2 - 2:11	WAS	Butler Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)	47 31.3%	46 68.7%
Q2 - 2:46	ATL	Johnson 9' Jump Shot (7 PTS)	47 34.0%	45 66.0%
Q2 - 3:10	WAS	Butler 1' Tip Shot (6 PTS)	45 30.9%	45 69.1%
Q2 - 3:12	WAS	Butler REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)	45 33.2%	43 66.8%
Q2 - 3:13	WAS	MISS Haywood 7' Jump Shot	45 35.3%	43 64.7%
Q2 - 3:25	WAS	Jamison REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	45 33.2%	43 66.8%
Q2 - 3:26	ATL	MISS Bibby 19' Jump Shot	45 34.1%	43 65.9%
Q2 - 3:39	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	45 36.3%	43 63.7%
Q2 - 3:41	WAS	MISS Haywood Free Throw 1 of 1	45 35.8%	43 64.2%
Q2 - 3:41	WAS	Haywood REBOUND (Off:4 Def:3)	45 38.7%	41 61.3%
Q2 - 3:41	WAS	MISS Butler 1' Layup	45 41.0%	41 59.0%
Q2 - 3:41	WAS	Butler REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	45 38.7%	41 61.3%
Q2 - 3:42	WAS	MISS Butler 1' Layup	45 41.0%	41 59.0%
Q2 - 3:49	ATL	Stevenson STEAL (1 STL)	45 38.7%	41 61.3%
Q2 - 3:59	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	45 42.0%	41 58.0%
Q2 - 4:00	WAS	MISS Jamison 1' Layup	45 41.0%	41 59.0%
Q2 - 4:14	ATL	Bibby Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)	45 38.1%	41 61.9%
Q2 - 4:14	ATL	Bibby Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)	44 37.7%	41 62.3%
Q2 - 4:31	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	43 35.5%	41 64.5%
Q2 - 4:32	WAS	MISS Jamison 25' 3PT Jump Shot	43 34.7%	41 65.3%
Q2 - 4:44	WAS	Jamison REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	43 32.9%	41 67.1%
Q2 - 4:45	ATL	MISS Johnson 25' 3PT Jump Shot	43 33.7%	41 66.3%
Q2 - 4:52	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	43 35.5%	41 64.5%
Q2 - 4:53	WAS	MISS Haywood 5' Jump Shot	43 34.7%	41 65.3%
Q2 - 4:56	WAS	Haywood REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)	43 32.9%	41 67.1%
Q2 - 4:57	WAS	MISS Young Layup	43 34.7%	41 65.3%
Q2 - 5:06	ATL	Pachulia 2' Layup (5 PTS) (Childress 1 AST)	43 32.5%	41 67.5%
Q2 - 5:22	WAS	Haywood Putback Dunk (10 PTS)	41 30.3%	41 69.7%
Q2 - 5:24	WAS	Haywood REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	41 32.5%	39 67.5%
Q2 - 5:25	WAS	MISS Jamison 7' Jump Shot	41 34.4%	39 65.6%
Q2 - 5:34	WAS	Haywood REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	41 32.5%	39 67.5%
Q2 - 5:35	ATL	MISS Johnson 5' Jump Shot	41 33.3%	39 66.7%
Q2 - 5:55	WAS	Mason Jr. 26' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Young 2 AST)	41 35.3%	39 64.7%
Q2 - 6:18	ATL	Horford Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T4)	41 39.7%	36 60.3%
Q2 - 6:28	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	41 42.9%	36 57.1%
Q2 - 6:29	WAS	MISS Young 17' Jump Shot	41 42.0%	36 58.0%
Q2 - 6:45	ATL	Bibby 25' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Johnson 5 AST)	41 39.8%	36 60.2%
Q2 - 7:00	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	38 35.1%	36 64.9%
Q2 - 7:01	WAS	MISS Mason Jr. 25' 3PT Jump Shot	38 33.8%	36 66.2%
Q2 - 7:21	ATL	Hawks Turnover: Shot Clock (T#3)	38 32.1%	36 67.9%
Q2 - 7:48	WAS	Haywood 3' Layup (8 PTS) (Young 1 AST)	38 34.7%	36 65.3%
Q2 - 7:53	ATL	Mason Jr. STEAL (1 STL)	38 36.9%	34 63.1%
Q2 - 8:07	WAS	Mason Jr. 20' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Haywood 3 AST)	38 39.3%	34 60.7%
Q2 - 8:28	ATL	Smith 6' Hook Shot (12 PTS)	38 41.4%	32 58.6%
Q2 - 8:51	WAS	Jamison 25' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Haywood 2 AST)	36 39.3%	32 60.7%
Q2 - 9:07	WAS	Jamison REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	36 43.3%	29 56.7%
Q2 - 9:08	ATL	MISS Pachulia Free Throw 2 of 2	36 43.6%	29 56.4%
Q2 - 9:08	ATL	Pachulia Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	36 45.3%	29 54.7%
Q2 - 9:09	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	35 43.6%	29 56.4%
Q2 - 9:11	ATL	Haywood BLOCK (1 BLK)	35 41.7%	29 58.3%
Q2 - 9:28	WAS	Mason Jr. 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS)	35 43.6%	29 56.4%
Q2 - 9:43	ATL	Law 13' Running Jump Shot (4 PTS)	35 48.3%	26 51.7%
Q2 - 9:52	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	33 46.1%	26 53.9%
Q2 - 9:53	WAS	MISS Songaila 19' Jump Shot	33 45.3%	26 54.7%
Q2 - 10:16	ATL	Pachulia 3' Hook Shot (2 PTS)	33 43.1%	26 56.9%
Q2 - 10:32	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	31 41.0%	26 59.0%
Q2 - 10:33	ATL	MISS Williams 1' Layup	31 39.1%	26 60.9%
Q2 - 10:54	WAS	Mason Jr. 1' Driving Layup (2 PTS)	31 41.0%	26 59.0%
Q2 - 11:13	ATL	Williams 11' Turnaround Jump Shot (2 PTS)	31 42.4%	24 57.6%
Q2 - 11:32	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	29 40.1%	24 59.9%
Q2 - 11:33	WAS	MISS Young 20' Jump Shot	29 39.4%	24 60.6%
Q2 - 11:39	WAS	WIZARDS Rebound	29 37.8%	24 62.2%
Q2 - 11:39	WAS	MISS Young 1' Layup	29 39.4%	24 60.6%
Q1 - 0:00.0	ATL		29 37.8%	24 62.2%
Q1 - 0:00.0	WAS	Young 1' Reverse Layup (2 PTS) (Daniels 1 AST)	29 40.1%	24 59.9%
Q1 - 0:04.0	ATL	Law 2' Driving Layup (2 PTS)	29 42.2%	22 57.8%
Q1 - 0:08.0	WAS	Young Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T5)	27 39.3%	22 60.7%
Q1 - 0:26.0	WAS	Young REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	27 37.6%	22 62.4%
Q1 - 0:28.0	ATL	MISS Smith 20' Jump Shot	27 38.1%	22 61.9%
Q1 - 0:42.0	WAS	Daniels Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	27 39.3%	22 60.7%
Q1 - 0:42.0	WAS	Daniels Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	27 39.7%	21 60.3%
Q1 - 1:00	ATL	Smith Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)	27 42.1%	20 57.9%
Q1 - 1:00	ATL	Smith Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)	26 41.5%	20 58.5%
Q1 - 1:23	WAS	Daniels 2' Driving Layup (4 PTS) (Blatche 1 AST)	25 39.3%	20 60.7%
Q1 - 1:27	WAS	Blatche REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	25 42.1%	18 57.9%
Q1 - 1:29	ATL	Songaila BLOCK (1 BLK)	25 42.6%	18 57.4%
Q1 - 1:33	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	25 43.9%	18 56.1%
Q1 - 1:34	WAS	MISS Blatche 1' Layup	25 43.3%	18 56.7%
Q1 - 1:46	WAS	Songaila REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	25 42.1%	18 57.9%
Q1 - 1:48	ATL	MISS Childress Free Throw 2 of 2	25 42.3%	18 57.7%
Q1 - 1:48	ATL	Childress Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	25 44.0%	18 56.0%
Q1 - 1:51	WAS	Jamison Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T4)	24 41.5%	18 58.5%
Q1 - 2:04	ATL	Smith 1' Layup (8 PTS) (Horford 1 AST)	24 39.5%	18 60.5%
Q1 - 2:07	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	22 37.2%	18 62.8%
Q1 - 2:08	ATL	MISS Horford 1' Layup	22 35.7%	18 64.3%
Q1 - 2:15	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	22 37.2%	18 62.8%
Q1 - 2:16	WAS	MISS Daniels 26' 3PT Jump Shot	22 36.5%	18 63.5%
Q1 - 2:29	WAS	Blatche REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	22 35.1%	18 64.9%
Q1 - 2:30	ATL	MISS Bibby 19' Jump Shot	22 35.7%	18 64.3%
Q1 - 2:50	WAS	Jamison Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T3)	22 37.1%	18 62.9%
Q1 - 2:53	ATL	Jamison STEAL (1 STL)	22 35.1%	18 64.9%
Q1 - 3:01	WAS	Jamison 1' Layup (6 PTS) (Haywood 1 AST)	22 36.7%	18 63.3%
Q1 - 3:26	ATL	Smith 1' Dunk (6 PTS) (Johnson 4 AST)	22 38.6%	16 61.4%
Q1 - 3:30	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	20 36.7%	16 63.3%
Q1 - 3:31	ATL	MISS Johnson 3PT Jump Shot	20 35.1%	16 64.9%
Q1 - 3:43	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	20 36.7%	16 63.3%
Q1 - 3:44	WAS	MISS Butler 20' Jump Shot	20 36.0%	16 64.0%
Q1 - 4:06	ATL	Childress Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	20 33.8%	16 66.2%
Q1 - 4:06	ATL	Childress Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	19 33.5%	16 66.5%
Q1 - 4:20	WAS	Jamison 18' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Stevenson 1 AST)	18 32.3%	16 67.7%
Q1 - 4:41	ATL	Smith 2' Layup (4 PTS) (Johnson 3 AST)	18 33.9%	14 66.1%
Q1 - 4:58	WAS	Daniels 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	16 32.3%	14 67.7%
Q1 - 5:17	WAS	Butler REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	16 33.2%	12 66.8%
Q1 - 5:18	ATL	MISS Horford 2' Layup	16 33.9%	12 66.1%
Q1 - 5:27	ATL	Johnson Free Throw Technical (5 PTS)	16 35.3%	12 64.7%
Q1 - 5:40	WAS	Haywood 1' Driving Layup (6 PTS)	15 33.5%	12 66.5%
Q1 - 5:58	WAS	Haywood REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	15 35.2%	10 64.8%
Q1 - 5:59	ATL	MISS Bibby 25' 3PT Jump Shot	15 35.8%	10 64.2%
Q1 - 6:06	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	15 36.5%	10 63.5%
Q1 - 6:07	WAS	MISS Stevenson 24' 3PT Jump Shot	15 35.9%	10 64.1%
Q1 - 6:26	ATL	Horford 1' Layup (2 PTS)	15 34.6%	10 65.4%
Q1 - 6:43	WAS	Butler Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	13 32.9%	10 67.1%
Q1 - 6:43	WAS	Butler Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	13 33.1%	9 66.9%
Q1 - 6:56	ATL	Smith 1' Alley Oop Dunk (2 PTS) (Bibby 1 AST)	13 34.6%	8 65.4%
Q1 - 6:59	ATL	Bibby REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	11 32.9%	8 67.1%
Q1 - 7:00	WAS	MISS Stevenson 25' 3PT Jump Shot	11 32.3%	8 67.7%
Q1 - 7:27	ATL	Bibby 24' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Johnson 2 AST)	11 30.5%	8 69.5%
Q1 - 7:51	WAS	Haywood 1' Dunk (4 PTS) (Butler 2 AST)	8 27.5%	8 72.5%
Q1 - 8:00	WAS	Jamison REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	8 28.9%	6 71.1%
Q1 - 8:01	ATL	MISS Johnson 24' 3PT Jump Shot	8 29.3%	6 70.7%
Q1 - 8:15	WAS	Haywood 1' Tip Shot (2 PTS)	8 30.5%	6 69.5%
Q1 - 8:17	WAS	Haywood REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	8 32.0%	4 68.0%
Q1 - 8:18	WAS	MISS Butler 10' Jump Shot	8 33.3%	4 66.7%
Q1 - 8:22	WAS	Butler REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	8 32.0%	4 68.0%
Q1 - 8:23	WAS	MISS Haywood Free Throw 2 of 2	8 33.6%	4 66.4%
Q1 - 8:23	WAS	MISS Haywood Free Throw 1 of 2	8 32.6%	4 67.4%
Q1 - 8:37	ATL	Bibby 19' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Johnson 1 AST)	8 32.0%	4 68.0%
Q1 - 8:59	WAS	Butler 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	6 30.5%	4 69.5%
Q1 - 9:17	ATL	Johnson 7' Turnaround Fadeaway (4 PTS)	6 31.6%	2 68.4%
Q1 - 9:32	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4 30.5%	2 69.5%
Q1 - 9:33	WAS	MISS Butler 24' 3PT Jump Shot	4 29.9%	2 70.1%
Q1 - 9:43	WAS	Haywood REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4 28.5%	2 71.5%
Q1 - 9:44	ATL	MISS Williams 20' Jump Shot	4 29.1%	2 70.9%
Q1 - 9:55	WAS	Stevenson Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T2)	4 30.5%	2 69.5%
Q1 - 10:16	ATL	Johnson 20' Fadeaway Jumper (2 PTS)	4 28.4%	2 71.6%
Q1 - 10:29	ATL	MISS Williams Free Throw Technical	2 27.2%	2 72.8%
Q1 - 10:48	WAS	Jamison 2' Reverse Layup (2 PTS) (Butler 1 AST)	2 27.2%	2 72.8%
Q1 - 11:06	WAS	WIZARDS Rebound	2 28.5%	0 71.5%
Q1 - 11:06	ATL	MISS Bibby 18' Jump Shot	2 28.9%	0 71.1%
Q1 - 11:18	WAS	Haywood Poss Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T1)	2 29.9%	0 70.1%
Q1 - 11:39	ATL	Bibby 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Williams 1 AST)	2 28.5%	0 71.5%
Q1 - 12:00	WAS	Jump Ball Haywood vs. Smith: Tip to Johnson	0 26.9%	0 73.1%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

1.22 61.0%

WAS

1.05 52.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

ATL

71%

WAS

61%

Midrange

ATL

46%

WAS

35%

3PT | Effective 3PT

ATL

12.0

53%

80%

WAS

9.0

35%

53%

Free Throws

ATL

71%

WAS

80%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Hawks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
M. Bibby	23	77%	11.5 / 15
J. Johnson	18	45%	9.0 / 20
J. Smith	17	77%	8.5 / 11
J. Childress	16	80%	8.0 / 10
A. Horford	12	67%	6.0 / 9
M. Williams	7	50%	3.5 / 7
Z. Pachulia	7	70%	3.5 / 5
A. Law	4	50%	2.0 / 4
M. West	1	50%	0.5 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Wizards

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Jamison	25	54%	12.5 / 23
B. Haywood	16	67%	8.0 / 12
R. Mason Jr.	14	88%	7.0 / 8
D. Stevenson	13	65%	6.5 / 10
C. Butler	12	40%	6.0 / 15
A. Daniels	8	67%	4.0 / 6
D. Songaila	4	33%	2.0 / 6
N. Young	4	29%	2.0 / 7
A. Blatche	0	-	0.0 / 1
O. Pecherov	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

ATL

+11

-10

WAS

+16

-9

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

1.22 61.0%

WAS

1.05 52.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	106.6 108.3	ATL 126.5 +10.8 WAS 115.7
Pace	91.4 90.4	ATL 84.1 +1.0 WAS 83.1
Avg. Poss. Time	15.6 16.3	ATL 17.1 +0.2 WAS 17.3
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	48.3% 48.9%	ATL 60.8% +11.4% WAS 49.4%
TO %	15.5% 13.8%	ATL 11.7% WAS 9.1% +2.6%
ORB %	29.8% 28.9%	ATL 35.5% +2.9% WAS 32.6%
FTrt	34.0 29.7	ATL 28.4 +3.7 WAS 24.7
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	60.6% 53.8%	ATL 61.0% +6.9% WAS 54.1%
STL %	7.9% 8.4%	ATL 7.2% WAS 8.4% +1.2%
BLK %	8.4% 8.2%	ATL 9.4% +6.0% WAS 3.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	52.0% 52.1%	ATL 61.0% +8.3% WAS 52.7%
Rim FG%	58.6% 59.0%	ATL 70.8% +10.2% WAS 60.6%
Mid FG%	38.5% 38.4%	ATL 45.7% +10.2% WAS 35.5%
3P %	35.6% 35.6%	ATL 53.3% +18.0% WAS 35.3%
FT %	77.2% 78.2%	ATL 71.4% WAS 80.0% +8.6%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	36.9% 33.3%	ATL 32.4% WAS 40.7% +8.3%
Mid Att. %	46.7% 42.6%	ATL 47.3% WAS 38.3% +9.0%
3P Att. %	16.5% 24.1%	ATL 20.3% WAS 21.0% +0.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	ATL	WAS
Possessions	83	83
Possession Minutes	23.7	24.0
Points	105	96
Rebounds	40	34
Assists	25	20
Steals	6	7
Blocks	6	2
Turnovers (Team)	10 (1)	9 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	11 (0)	14 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	29 (2)	20 (5)
Field Goals	41-74	37-81
At-the-Rim FG	17-24	20-33
Midrange FG	16-35	11-31
2-Point FG	33-59	31-64
3-Point FG	8-15	6-17
Free Throws	15-21	16-20
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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22 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Joe Johnson G · 6'7" 240 · 27	43.6	18	45%	4	10	0	1	0	3	1	3	1-1	100%	7-14	50%	1-6	17%
Al Horford C · 6'10" 245 · 22	38.0	12	67%	15	6	1	2	3	2	6	9	0-0	-	6-9	67%	0-0	-
Mike Bibby G · 6'2" 195 · 30	36.6	23	77%	2	3	1	0	3	1	0	2	4-4	100%	2-7	29%	5-6	83%
Josh Smith F · 6'9" 225 · 22	28.6	17	77%	8	0	2	2	0	5	1	7	3-3	100%	7-9	78%	0-1	0%
Marvin Williams F · 6'9" 237 · 22	25.9	7	50%	4	2	1	0	0	3	0	4	1-3	33%	3-7	43%	0-0	-
Josh Childress F-G · 6'8" 210 · 25	41.8	16	80%	5	4	0	1	2	2	2	3	4-6	67%	3-5	60%	2-2	100%
Zaza Pachulia C · 6'11" 270 · 24	12.5	7	70%	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1-2	50%	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Acie Law G · 6'3" 202 · 23	11.4	4	50%	0	0	1	0	2	2	0	0	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Mario West G · 6'5" 210 · 24	1.5	1	50%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jeremy Richardson G-F · 6'7" 195 · 24	0.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Salim Stoudamire G · 6'1" 175 · 25
Solomon Jones F · 6'10" 235 · 24
Speedy Claxton #12 · G · 5'11" 170 · 30	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	105	61%	40	25	6	6	10	0	11	29	15-21	71%	33-59	56%	8-15	53%

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22 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Joe Johnson G · 6'7" 240 · 27	43.6	18	45%	4	10	0	1	0	3	1	3	1-1	100%	7-14	50%	1-6	17%
Al Horford C · 6'10" 245 · 22	38.0	12	67%	15	6	1	2	3	2	6	9	0-0	-	6-9	67%	0-0	-
Mike Bibby G · 6'2" 195 · 30	36.6	23	77%	2	3	1	0	3	1	0	2	4-4	100%	2-7	29%	5-6	83%
Josh Smith F · 6'9" 225 · 22	28.6	17	77%	8	0	2	2	0	5	1	7	3-3	100%	7-9	78%	0-1	0%
Marvin Williams F · 6'9" 237 · 22	25.9	7	50%	4	2	1	0	0	3	0	4	1-3	33%	3-7	43%	0-0	-
Josh Childress F-G · 6'8" 210 · 25	41.8	16	80%	5	4	0	1	2	2	2	3	4-6	67%	3-5	60%	2-2	100%
Zaza Pachulia C · 6'11" 270 · 24	12.5	7	70%	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1-2	50%	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Acie Law G · 6'3" 202 · 23	11.4	4	50%	0	0	1	0	2	2	0	0	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Mario West G · 6'5" 210 · 24	1.5	1	50%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jeremy Richardson G-F · 6'7" 195 · 24	0.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Salim Stoudamire G · 6'1" 175 · 25
Solomon Jones F · 6'10" 235 · 24
Speedy Claxton #12 · G · 5'11" 170 · 30	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	105	61%	40	25	6	6	10	0	11	29	15-21	71%	33-59	56%	8-15	53%

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15 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Antawn Jamison F · 6'9" 235 · 32	43.3	25	54%	9	0	2	0	3	2	3	6	4-5	80%	9-18	50%	1-3	33%
DeShawn Stevenson G · 6'5" 218 · 27	34.2	13	65%	1	3	2	0	1	1	0	1	4-4	100%	0-1	0%	3-7	43%
Caron Butler F · 6'7" 228 · 28	33.8	12	40%	7	8	0	0	1	2	4	3	4-4	100%	4-11	36%	0-2	0%
Brendan Haywood C · 7'0" 263 · 28	32.3	16	67%	9	3	1	1	3	2	5	4	2-5	40%	7-10	70%	0-0	-
Antonio Daniels G · 6'4" 205 · 33	27.9	8	67%	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	2-2	100%	3-4	75%	0-1	0%
Roger Mason Jr. G · 6'5" 205 · 28	26.9	14	88%	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	0-0	-	4-4	100%	2-4	50%
Darius Songaila F · 6'9" 248 · 30	18.4	4	33%	3	0	1	1	0	1	1	2	0-0	-	2-6	33%	0-0	-
Nick Young G-F · 6'7" 210 · 23	13.4	4	29%	1	2	0	0	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	2-7	29%	0-0	-
Andray Blatche C-F · 6'11" 260 · 22	5.3	0	0%	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Dominic McGuire F · 6'9" 235 · 22	4.1	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Oleksiy Pecherov F-C · 7'0" 234 · 22	0.5	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Gilbert Arenas G · 6'4" 215 · 26
Etan Thomas #36 · C · 6'10" 260 · 30	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	96	53%	34	20	7	2	9	0	14	20	16-20	80%	31-64	48%	6-17	35%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE