FinalWin Prob.pScore
1719%87
100
581%98
112
ORTG#PossPace
MIA logo MIA
109.99193.1
HOU logo HOU
123.19189.0

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

RocketsHeatQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

RocketsHeatQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventMIAHOU
Q4 - 0:00.0HOU100
0%
112
100%
Q4 - 0:09.0MIADavis 28' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS)100
0.1%
112
99.9%
Q4 - 0:14.0MIABlount REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)97
0%
112
100%
Q4 - 0:16.0HOUMISS Novak 28' 3PT Jump Shot97
0%
112
100%
Q4 - 0:40.0MIAAl. Johnson Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)97
0.1%
112
99.9%
Q4 - 0:40.0MIAMISS Al. Johnson Free Throw 1 of 296
0.1%
112
99.9%
Q4 - 0:54.0HOUHead Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T11)96
0.1%
112
99.9%
Q4 - 1:13HOUHead REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)96
0.1%
112
99.9%
Q4 - 1:15MIAMISS Davis 11' Jump Bank Shot96
0.1%
112
99.9%
Q4 - 1:28HOULandry Free Throw 2 of 2 (19 PTS)96
0.1%
112
99.9%
Q4 - 1:28HOULandry Free Throw 1 of 2 (18 PTS)96
0.1%
111
99.9%
Q4 - 1:43MIABlount Dunk (11 PTS) (Davis 2 AST)96
0.1%
110
99.9%
Q4 - 1:55MIADavis REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)94
0.1%
110
99.9%
Q4 - 1:56MIAMISS Marion 18' Jump Shot94
0.1%
110
99.9%
Q4 - 2:09HOULandry Driving Slam Dunk (17 PTS) (Battier 4 AST)94
0.1%
110
99.9%
Q4 - 2:28MIAMcGrady STEAL (2 STL)94
0.1%
108
99.9%
Q4 - 2:46HOUYao 17' Jump Shot (21 PTS) (Alston 11 AST)94
0.1%
108
99.9%
Q4 - 2:48HOUROCKETS Rebound94
0.1%
106
99.9%
Q4 - 2:48HOUMISS Alston Driving Layup94
0.2%
106
99.8%
Q4 - 3:06HOUBattier REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)94
0.2%
106
99.8%
Q4 - 3:06MIAMISS Marion Free Throw 2 of 294
0.2%
106
99.8%
Q4 - 3:06MIAMarion Free Throw 1 of 2 (18 PTS)94
0.2%
106
99.8%
Q4 - 3:14MIABlount REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)93
0.2%
106
99.8%
Q4 - 3:16MIAMISS Davis 26' 3PT Jump Shot93
0.1%
106
99.9%
Q4 - 3:32HOUBattier 15' Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Alston 10 AST)93
0.4%
106
99.6%
Q4 - 3:55MIADavis 25' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Wade 11 AST)93
0.5%
104
99.5%
Q4 - 4:02MIAMarion REBOUND (Off:3 Def:7)90
0.2%
104
99.8%
Q4 - 4:03HOUMISS McGrady 20' Jump Shot90
0.2%
104
99.8%
Q4 - 4:17HOUAlston REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)90
0.2%
104
99.8%
Q4 - 4:18MIAMISS Marion 24' 3PT Jump Shot90
0.2%
104
99.8%
Q4 - 4:26HOUAlston Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T10)90
0.2%
104
99.8%
Q4 - 4:30MIAAlston STEAL (2 STL)90
0.2%
104
99.8%
Q4 - 4:49HOUBattier 25' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Alston 9 AST)90
0.2%
104
99.8%
Q4 - 4:55HOULandry REBOUND (Off:4 Def:1)90
0.5%
101
99.5%
Q4 - 4:56HOUMISS Alston 25' 3PT Jump Shot90
0.6%
101
99.4%
Q4 - 5:16HOUYao REBOUND (Off:2 Def:7)90
0.7%
101
99.3%
Q4 - 5:18HOUMISS Alston 25' 3PT Jump Shot90
0.9%
101
99.1%
Q4 - 5:42MIAWright 21' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Wade 10 AST)90
0.7%
101
99.3%
Q4 - 6:09HOUHead 25' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS)88
0.7%
101
99.3%
Q4 - 6:35MIABanks 26' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Davis 1 AST)88
1.3%
98
98.7%
Q4 - 6:52HOULandry Slam Dunk (15 PTS) (McGrady 10 AST)85
0.7%
98
99.3%
Q4 - 7:02HOUROCKETS Rebound85
1.3%
96
98.7%
Q4 - 7:04HOUMISS Head Free Throw 2 of 285
1.6%
96
98.4%
Q4 - 7:04HOUHead Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)85
1.4%
96
98.6%
Q4 - 7:07MIAHead STEAL (1 STL)85
1.7%
95
98.3%
Q4 - 7:25HOULandry 16' Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Battier 3 AST)85
2.2%
95
97.8%
Q4 - 7:42MIAWade 17' Jump Shot (33 PTS) (Banks 2 AST)85
2.8%
93
97.2%
Q4 - 7:55MIAHeat Rebound83
2.2%
93
97.8%
Q4 - 7:56HOUMISS Landry 21' Jump Shot83
2.0%
93
98.0%
Q4 - 8:14HOUBattier REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)83
2.1%
93
97.9%
Q4 - 8:15MIAMISS Barron 15' Jump Shot83
2.2%
93
97.8%
Q4 - 8:36HOULandry Dunk (11 PTS) (McGrady 9 AST)83
2.6%
93
97.4%
Q4 - 8:50HOULandry REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)83
3.3%
91
96.7%
Q4 - 8:54HOUMISS McGrady 26' 3PT Jump Shot83
4.0%
91
96.0%
Q4 - 9:15MIAMarion Alley Oop Dunk (17 PTS) (Wade 9 AST)83
3.7%
91
96.3%
Q4 - 9:21HOUHead Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T9)81
2.9%
91
97.1%
Q4 - 9:37HOUYao REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)81
2.3%
91
97.7%
Q4 - 9:38MIAMISS Wade 19' Jump Shot81
2.5%
91
97.5%
Q4 - 9:46MIAMarion REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6)81
2.9%
91
97.1%
Q4 - 9:47HOUMISS Alston 25' 3PT Jump Shot81
2.7%
91
97.3%
Q4 - 10:08MIAWade 17' Jump Shot (31 PTS)81
2.6%
91
97.4%
Q4 - 10:22HOUYao Free Throw 2 of 2 (19 PTS)79
2.1%
91
97.9%
Q4 - 10:22HOUMISS Yao Free Throw 1 of 279
2.2%
90
97.8%
Q4 - 10:42MIADavis 6' Turnaround Fadeaway (6 PTS)79
2.1%
90
97.9%
Q4 - 10:59HOULandry Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)77
1.7%
90
98.3%
Q4 - 10:59HOUMISS Landry Free Throw 1 of 277
1.8%
89
98.2%
Q4 - 11:18MIAWade 15' Jump Shot (29 PTS) (Banks 1 AST)77
1.9%
89
98.1%
Q4 - 11:37HOUAlston 18' Jump Shot (16 PTS)75
1.6%
89
98.4%
Q3 - 0:00.0HOU75
1.9%
87
98.1%
Q3 - 0:00.0MIAWade Free Throw 2 of 2 (27 PTS)75
1.9%
87
98.1%
Q3 - 0:00.0MIAMISS Wade Free Throw 1 of 274
1.8%
87
98.2%
Q3 - 0:08.0HOULandry Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)74
2.2%
87
97.8%
Q3 - 0:08.0HOULandry Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)74
2.3%
86
97.7%
Q3 - 0:08.0HOULandry REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)74
2.6%
85
97.4%
Q3 - 0:09.0HOUMISS Alston 23' Jump Shot74
3.0%
85
97.0%
Q3 - 0:30.0HOUScola REBOUND (Off:2 Def:8)74
2.6%
85
97.4%
Q3 - 0:31.0MIAMISS Davis 20' Jump Shot74
2.8%
85
97.2%
Q3 - 0:48.0HOUBattier 13' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Scola 3 AST)74
3.2%
85
96.8%
Q3 - 1:12MIAMarion Free Throw 2 of 2 (15 PTS)74
4.1%
83
95.9%
Q3 - 1:12MIAMISS Marion Free Throw 1 of 273
4.0%
83
96.0%
Q3 - 1:12MIAHeat Rebound73
4.2%
83
95.8%
Q3 - 1:12HOUMISS McGrady Layup73
3.9%
83
96.1%
Q3 - 1:28MIABarron REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)73
3.4%
83
96.6%
Q3 - 1:28MIABarron Tip Shot (5 PTS)73
3.4%
83
96.6%
Q3 - 1:29MIAMarion REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)71
2.9%
83
97.1%
Q3 - 1:29MIAMISS Marion Tip Shot71
2.5%
83
97.5%
Q3 - 1:30MIAMISS Wade Driving Layup71
2.5%
83
97.5%
Q3 - 1:50HOUMcGrady Driving Layup (23 PTS) (Scola 2 AST)71
2.8%
83
97.2%
Q3 - 1:57HOUBattier REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)71
3.4%
81
96.6%
Q3 - 2:00HOUMISS McGrady 25' 3PT Jump Shot71
3.9%
81
96.1%
Q3 - 2:06HOUAlston REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)71
3.6%
81
96.4%
Q3 - 2:08MIAMISS Wright 14' Jump Shot71
3.8%
81
96.2%
Q3 - 2:20MIAWade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)71
4.4%
81
95.6%
Q3 - 2:21HOUMISS Alston 25' 3PT Jump Shot71
4.1%
81
95.9%
Q3 - 2:41HOUBattier REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)71
3.6%
81
96.4%
Q3 - 2:41MIAMISS Marion Free Throw 1 of 171
3.7%
81
96.3%
Q3 - 2:51HOUMcGrady Free Throw 2 of 2 (21 PTS)69
3.1%
81
96.9%
Q3 - 2:51HOUMISS McGrady Free Throw 1 of 269
3.2%
80
96.8%
Q3 - 3:01MIAMarion Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)69
3.3%
80
96.7%
Q3 - 3:01MIAMISS Marion Free Throw 1 of 268
3.2%
80
96.8%
Q3 - 3:06MIAWright REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)68
3.3%
80
96.7%
Q3 - 3:08MIABarron REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)68
3.3%
80
96.7%
Q3 - 3:08MIAMISS Barron Tip Shot68
2.9%
80
97.1%
Q3 - 3:09MIAMISS Wade Layup68
2.9%
80
97.1%
Q3 - 3:21HOULandry Slam Dunk (6 PTS) (McGrady 8 AST)68
3.3%
80
96.7%
Q3 - 3:41MIAWade Step Out of Bounds Turnover (P2.T8)68
3.9%
78
96.1%
Q3 - 3:52HOUScola Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)68
4.6%
78
95.4%
Q3 - 3:52HOUScola Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)68
4.9%
77
95.1%
Q3 - 4:04MIABarron Free Throw 2 of 2 (3 PTS)68
5.5%
76
94.5%
Q3 - 4:04MIABarron Free Throw 1 of 2 (2 PTS)67
5.3%
76
94.7%
Q3 - 4:11HOUScola Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T8)66
4.8%
76
95.2%
Q3 - 4:12MIAScola STEAL (2 STL)66
4.0%
76
96.0%
Q3 - 4:24HOUYao 7' Hook Shot (18 PTS)66
4.8%
76
95.2%
Q3 - 4:52MIAWade 27' 3PT Jump Shot (26 PTS)66
5.5%
74
94.5%
Q3 - 4:59MIAWade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)63
4.1%
74
95.9%
Q3 - 5:01HOUMISS McGrady 20' Jump Shot63
4.1%
74
95.9%
Q3 - 5:11HOUAlston REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)63
3.6%
74
96.4%
Q3 - 5:12MIAMISS Barron 19' Jump Shot63
3.8%
74
96.2%
Q3 - 5:25HOUMcGrady Free Throw 2 of 2 (20 PTS)63
4.3%
74
95.7%
Q3 - 5:25HOUMcGrady Free Throw 1 of 2 (19 PTS)63
4.4%
73
95.6%
Q3 - 5:25HOUMcGrady REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)63
4.9%
72
95.1%
Q3 - 5:26HOUMISS McGrady Driving Layup63
5.6%
72
94.4%
Q3 - 5:37HOUYao REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)63
4.9%
72
95.1%
Q3 - 5:38HOUMISS McGrady 19' Jump Shot63
5.5%
72
94.5%
Q3 - 5:51MIABlount Free Throw 1 of 1 (9 PTS)63
4.9%
72
95.1%
Q3 - 6:05HOUAlston Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)60
3.8%
72
96.2%
Q3 - 6:05HOUMISS Alston Free Throw 1 of 260
4.0%
71
96.0%
Q3 - 6:27MIAWade Dunk (23 PTS) (Williams 4 AST)60
3.8%
71
96.2%
Q3 - 6:31MIABlount REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)58
3.3%
71
96.7%
Q3 - 6:33MIAMISS Wright 16' Jump Shot58
2.9%
71
97.1%
Q3 - 6:54HOUMcGrady Free Throw 2 of 2 (18 PTS)58
3.2%
71
96.8%
Q3 - 6:54HOUMcGrady Free Throw 1 of 2 (17 PTS)58
3.4%
70
96.6%
Q3 - 6:58HOUYao REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)58
3.8%
69
96.2%
Q3 - 7:00MIAMISS Marion 10' Running Jump Shot58
3.9%
69
96.1%
Q3 - 7:22HOUYao Dunk (16 PTS) (McGrady 7 AST)58
4.6%
69
95.4%
Q3 - 7:24MIAMcGrady STEAL (1 STL)58
5.2%
67
94.8%
Q3 - 7:26HOUAlston Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T7)58
6.2%
67
93.8%
Q3 - 7:38HOUScola REBOUND (Off:2 Def:7)58
5.2%
67
94.8%
Q3 - 7:38HOUMISS Scola Free Throw 2 of 258
6.1%
67
93.9%
Q3 - 7:38HOUScola Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)58
5.6%
67
94.4%
Q3 - 7:54MIAMarion 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Wright 1 AST)58
6.1%
66
93.9%
Q3 - 8:15MIABlount REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)55
4.7%
66
95.3%
Q3 - 8:17HOUMISS McGrady 17' Step Back Jump Shot55
4.5%
66
95.5%
Q3 - 8:38MIAWade Free Throw 1 of 1 (21 PTS)55
4.0%
66
96.0%
Q3 - 8:44MIAMarion REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)52
3.1%
66
96.9%
Q3 - 8:45HOUMISS Scola Layup52
2.9%
66
97.1%
Q3 - 9:07MIABlount Driving Dunk (6 PTS) (Williams 2 AST)52
2.7%
66
97.3%
Q3 - 9:11MIAMarion REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)50
2.3%
66
97.7%
Q3 - 9:13HOUMISS Alston 12' Running Jump Shot50
2.2%
66
97.8%
Q3 - 9:25HOUROCKETS Rebound50
2.0%
66
98.0%
Q3 - 9:25MIAMISS Williams 24' 3PT Jump Shot50
2.1%
66
97.9%
Q3 - 9:40HOUBattier Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T6)50
2.3%
66
97.7%
Q3 - 9:53HOUScola REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)50
2.0%
66
98.0%
Q3 - 9:54MIAMISS Blount 21' Jump Shot50
2.1%
66
97.9%
Q3 - 10:11HOUScola Layup (8 PTS) (McGrady 6 AST)50
2.4%
66
97.6%
Q3 - 10:22HOUScola REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)50
2.7%
64
97.3%
Q3 - 10:26MIAMISS Wright 18' Jump Shot50
2.9%
64
97.1%
Q3 - 10:47MIAHeat Rebound50
3.2%
64
96.8%
Q3 - 10:48HOUMISS Yao Layup50
3.0%
64
97.0%
Q3 - 10:59HOUMcGrady REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)50
2.7%
64
97.3%
Q3 - 11:01MIAMISS Wade 17' Jump Shot50
2.9%
64
97.1%
Q3 - 11:19HOUYao 15' Turnaround Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Battier 2 AST)50
3.2%
64
96.8%
Q3 - 11:44MIAWade 22' Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Marion 1 AST)50
3.7%
62
96.3%
Q2 - 0:00.0HOU48
3.2%
62
96.8%
Q2 - 0:00.0HOUROCKETS Rebound48
2.8%
62
97.2%
Q2 - 0:00.0HOUMISS Scola 26' 3PT Running Jump Shot48
3.1%
62
96.9%
Q2 - 0:04.0MIAWright 22' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Wade 6 AST)48
3.1%
62
96.9%
Q2 - 0:27.0MIABlount REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)46
2.6%
62
97.4%
Q2 - 0:28.0HOUMISS Battier 25' 3PT Jump Shot46
2.5%
62
97.5%
Q2 - 0:43.0HOUMcGrady REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)46
2.4%
62
97.6%
Q2 - 0:44.0MIAMISS Blount 21' Jump Shot46
2.4%
62
97.6%
Q2 - 1:03HOUBattier 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Alston 8 AST)46
2.7%
62
97.3%
Q2 - 1:23MIAWright Alley Oop Dunk (4 PTS) (Wade 5 AST)46
3.7%
59
96.3%
Q2 - 1:27MIAWade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)44
3.1%
59
96.9%
Q2 - 1:29HOUMISS Scola Layup44
3.0%
59
97.0%
Q2 - 1:42HOUScola REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)44
2.9%
59
97.1%
Q2 - 1:42MIAMISS Marion Free Throw 2 of 244
2.9%
59
97.1%
Q2 - 1:42MIAMarion Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)44
3.2%
59
96.8%
Q2 - 1:45MIABlount REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)43
2.7%
59
97.3%
Q2 - 1:47HOUMISS Battier 10' Hook Shot43
2.7%
59
97.3%
Q2 - 2:05MIAMarion 6' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Wade 4 AST)43
2.6%
59
97.4%
Q2 - 2:15HOUAlston 14' Floating Jump Shot (13 PTS)41
2.3%
59
97.7%
Q2 - 2:32MIAWade Driving Layup (16 PTS)41
2.6%
57
97.4%
Q2 - 2:51HOUYao Layup (12 PTS)39
2.3%
57
97.7%
Q2 - 3:09MIAWade Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)39
2.8%
55
97.2%
Q2 - 3:09MIAWade Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)38
2.7%
55
97.3%
Q2 - 3:12MIAMarion REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)37
2.5%
55
97.5%
Q2 - 3:14HOUMISS Brooks 12' Running Jump Shot37
2.4%
55
97.6%
Q2 - 3:34MIAWright 16' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Wade 3 AST)37
2.2%
55
97.8%
Q2 - 3:54HOUNovak 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Battier 1 AST)35
2.0%
55
98.0%
Q2 - 4:14MIAWade Driving Layup (12 PTS)35
2.6%
52
97.4%
Q2 - 4:30HOUYao 9' Hook Shot (10 PTS) (Brooks 3 AST)33
2.3%
52
97.7%
Q2 - 4:52MIAAl. Johnson Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)33
2.6%
50
97.4%
Q2 - 4:52MIAAl. Johnson Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)32
2.5%
50
97.5%
Q2 - 5:07HOULandry 13' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Brooks 2 AST)31
2.4%
50
97.6%
Q2 - 5:27HOUYao REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)31
2.6%
48
97.4%
Q2 - 5:28MIAMISS Al. Johnson 11' Turnaround Jump Shot31
2.7%
48
97.3%
Q2 - 5:48HOUBrooks Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T5)31
3.0%
48
97.0%
Q2 - 5:58HOULandry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)31
2.6%
48
97.4%
Q2 - 6:00MIAMISS Blount 20' Jump Shot31
2.7%
48
97.3%
Q2 - 6:04MIAQuinn REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)31
3.1%
48
96.9%
Q2 - 6:06MIAYao BLOCK (1 BLK)31
2.8%
48
97.2%
Q2 - 6:29MIAAl. Johnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)31
3.1%
48
96.9%
Q2 - 6:30HOUMISS Head 25' 3PT Jump Shot31
3.0%
48
97.0%
Q2 - 6:41MIADavis 21' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Al. Johnson 1 AST)31
2.7%
48
97.3%
Q2 - 6:54MIAAl. Johnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)29
2.5%
48
97.5%
Q2 - 6:55HOUMISS Brooks 25' 3PT Jump Shot29
2.4%
48
97.6%
Q2 - 7:07HOUNovak REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)29
2.4%
48
97.6%
Q2 - 7:08MIAMISS Quinn 17' Jump Shot29
2.5%
48
97.5%
Q2 - 7:23MIAMarion REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)29
2.7%
48
97.3%
Q2 - 7:24HOUMISS Landry 20' Jump Shot29
2.6%
48
97.4%
Q2 - 7:41HOUNovak REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)29
2.4%
48
97.6%
Q2 - 7:43MIAMISS Marion 10' Running Jump Shot29
2.5%
48
97.5%
Q2 - 8:01HOUMcGrady Alley Oop Dunk (16 PTS) (Head 1 AST)29
2.8%
48
97.2%
Q2 - 8:06MIAScola STEAL (1 STL)29
3.0%
46
97.0%
Q2 - 8:17HOULandry 6' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Brooks 1 AST)29
3.4%
46
96.6%
Q2 - 8:35MIAAl. Johnson Layup (2 PTS) (Quinn 1 AST)29
3.7%
44
96.3%
Q2 - 8:43MIAQuinn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)27
3.4%
44
96.6%
Q2 - 8:44HOUMISS Scola 18' Jump Shot27
3.3%
44
96.7%
Q2 - 8:58HOUScola REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)27
3.0%
44
97.0%
Q2 - 8:59MIAMISS Marion 9' Jump Shot27
3.1%
44
96.9%
Q2 - 9:10MIADavis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)27
3.5%
44
96.5%
Q2 - 9:11MIAMISS Marion 26' 3PT Jump Shot27
3.2%
44
96.8%
Q2 - 9:19MIAQuinn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)27
3.5%
44
96.5%
Q2 - 9:21HOUMISS Scola Layup27
3.3%
44
96.7%
Q2 - 9:32HOUBrooks REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)27
3.1%
44
96.9%
Q2 - 9:34MIAMISS Davis 20' Jump Shot27
3.2%
44
96.8%
Q2 - 9:49MIABlount REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)27
3.5%
44
96.5%
Q2 - 9:49HOUMISS Scola Free Throw 2 of 227
3.4%
44
96.6%
Q2 - 9:49HOUMISS Scola Free Throw 1 of 227
3.2%
44
96.8%
Q2 - 9:55HOULandry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)27
3.1%
44
96.9%
Q2 - 9:57HOUMISS Head 24' 3PT Jump Shot27
3.3%
44
96.7%
Q2 - 10:17MIABarron Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)27
3.2%
44
96.8%
Q2 - 10:17MIAMISS Barron Free Throw 1 of 226
3.1%
44
96.9%
Q2 - 10:22MIAWade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)26
3.2%
44
96.8%
Q2 - 10:23HOUMISS McGrady 22' Jump Shot26
3.1%
44
96.9%
Q2 - 10:37MIAWade Traveling Turnover (P1.T4)26
2.9%
44
97.1%
Q2 - 10:55HOUHead 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Alston 7 AST)26
3.2%
44
96.8%
Q2 - 11:12HOUScola REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)26
3.9%
41
96.1%
Q2 - 11:13MIAMISS Quinn 22' Jump Shot26
4.0%
41
96.0%
Q2 - 11:20MIABarron REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)26
4.3%
41
95.7%
Q2 - 11:22HOUMISS Head 26' 3PT Jump Shot26
4.2%
41
95.8%
Q2 - 11:45MIAAlston STEAL (1 STL)26
3.9%
41
96.1%
Q1 - 0:00.0MIA26
4.3%
41
95.7%
Q1 - 0:00.0MIAHeat Rebound26
4.3%
41
95.7%
Q1 - 0:00.0MIAMISS Davis 25' 3PT Jump Shot26
4.0%
41
96.0%
Q1 - 0:01.0HOUAlston 28' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (McGrady 5 AST)26
4.3%
41
95.7%
Q1 - 0:06.0MIAMarion Layup (5 PTS) (Wade 2 AST)26
5.3%
38
94.7%
Q1 - 0:26.0HOUMcGrady 28' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Alston 6 AST)24
4.8%
38
95.2%
Q1 - 0:35.0HOUYao REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)24
5.8%
35
94.2%
Q1 - 0:36.0MIAMISS Marion 7' Jump Shot24
5.9%
35
94.1%
Q1 - 0:51.0MIAHeat Rebound24
6.2%
35
93.8%
Q1 - 0:53.0HOUMISS Scola 17' Jump Shot24
6.1%
35
93.9%
Q1 - 1:08MIAWilliams 26' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Wade 1 AST)24
5.8%
35
94.2%
Q1 - 1:31HOUAlston 25' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS)21
4.8%
35
95.2%
Q1 - 1:42HOUAlston REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)21
5.8%
32
94.2%
Q1 - 1:43MIAMISS Williams 21' Jump Shot21
6.0%
32
94.0%
Q1 - 1:55HOUScola Driving Layup (6 PTS) (Alston 5 AST)21
6.3%
32
93.7%
Q1 - 2:18MIADavis 21' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Barron 1 AST)21
7.0%
30
93.0%
Q1 - 2:42HOUMcGrady 22' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Alston 4 AST)19
6.3%
30
93.7%
Q1 - 3:04MIABarron Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T2)19
7.0%
28
93.0%
Q1 - 3:29HOUYao Layup (8 PTS) (McGrady 4 AST)19
7.7%
28
92.3%
Q1 - 3:44MIAWade 11' Running Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Williams 1 AST)19
8.3%
26
91.7%
Q1 - 4:17HOUScola Reverse Layup (4 PTS)17
7.6%
26
92.4%
Q1 - 4:18HOUScola REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)17
8.1%
24
91.9%
Q1 - 4:19HOUMISS McGrady 27' 3PT Jump Shot17
8.7%
24
91.3%
Q1 - 4:26HOUYao REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)17
8.2%
24
91.8%
Q1 - 4:28MIAMISS Wade 25' 3PT Jump Shot17
8.4%
24
91.6%
Q1 - 4:34MIAMarion REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)17
9.0%
24
91.0%
Q1 - 4:35MIAMISS Wright 22' Jump Shot17
8.4%
24
91.6%
Q1 - 4:53HOUMcGrady 20' Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Scola 1 AST)17
9.0%
24
91.0%
Q1 - 5:05MIAWade Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)17
9.6%
22
90.4%
Q1 - 5:05MIAWade Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)16
9.4%
22
90.6%
Q1 - 5:16HOUScola Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T4)15
8.9%
22
91.1%
Q1 - 5:29HOUScola REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)15
8.2%
22
91.8%
Q1 - 5:29MIAMISS Marion Free Throw 2 of 215
8.3%
22
91.7%
Q1 - 5:29MIAMISS Marion Free Throw 1 of 215
8.7%
22
91.3%
Q1 - 5:29MIAMarion REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)15
8.9%
22
91.1%
Q1 - 5:30MIAMISS Wright 5' Running Hook Shot15
8.4%
22
91.6%
Q1 - 5:51HOUMcGrady Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T3)15
8.9%
22
91.1%
Q1 - 6:08MIAWilliams Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T1)15
8.3%
22
91.7%
Q1 - 6:17HOUBattier Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)15
9.0%
22
91.0%
Q1 - 6:17HOUBattier Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)15
9.1%
21
90.9%
Q1 - 6:23HOUYao REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)15
9.6%
20
90.4%
Q1 - 6:24MIAMISS Williams 21' Jump Shot15
9.8%
20
90.2%
Q1 - 6:31HOUYao Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T2)15
10.4%
20
89.6%
Q1 - 6:44MIAMarion 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS)15
9.6%
20
90.4%
Q1 - 6:59HOUYao Layup (6 PTS) (McGrady 3 AST)12
8.3%
20
91.7%
Q1 - 7:11HOUScola REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)12
9.0%
18
91.0%
Q1 - 7:12MIAMISS Wade 3PT Jump Shot12
9.2%
18
90.8%
Q1 - 7:21MIAWilliams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)12
9.7%
18
90.3%
Q1 - 7:23HOUMISS McGrady Alley Oop Dunk12
9.5%
18
90.5%
Q1 - 7:34MIAWade Layup (6 PTS)12
9.0%
18
91.0%
Q1 - 7:41HOUYao 14' Turnaround Jump Shot (4 PTS)10
8.4%
18
91.6%
Q1 - 7:56MIAWilliams Driving Layup (2 PTS)10
9.0%
16
91.0%
Q1 - 8:12HOUAlston 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (McGrady 2 AST)8
8.3%
16
91.7%
Q1 - 8:25MIABlount Layup (4 PTS)8
9.5%
13
90.5%
Q1 - 8:42HOUYao 15' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Alston 3 AST)6
8.9%
13
91.1%
Q1 - 8:56MIAWade 13' Fadeaway Bank Shot (4 PTS)6
9.5%
11
90.5%
Q1 - 9:17HOUMcGrady 18' Jump Shot (7 PTS)4
8.9%
11
91.1%
Q1 - 9:24HOUAlston REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)4
9.3%
9
90.7%
Q1 - 9:25MIAMISS Wade 20' Jump Shot4
9.6%
9
90.4%
Q1 - 9:41HOUAlston Driving Layup (2 PTS)4
10.2%
9
89.8%
Q1 - 9:47HOUYao REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)4
10.7%
7
89.3%
Q1 - 9:47MIAMISS Blount Layup4
11.0%
7
89.0%
Q1 - 9:57HOUMcGrady 22' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Alston 2 AST)4
11.7%
7
88.3%
Q1 - 10:12MIAWade Driving Layup (2 PTS)4
12.2%
5
87.8%
Q1 - 10:35HOUMcGrady Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)2
11.6%
5
88.4%
Q1 - 10:46MIABlount Layup (2 PTS)2
13.1%
2
86.9%
Q1 - 10:47MIABlount REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)0
12.4%
2
87.6%
Q1 - 10:49MIAMISS Marion Layup0
11.7%
2
88.3%
Q1 - 11:00HOUScola Layup (2 PTS) (McGrady 1 AST)0
12.4%
2
87.6%
Q1 - 11:12HOUAlston REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)0
13.1%
0
86.9%
Q1 - 11:13MIAMISS Wade 18' Jump Shot0
13.3%
0
86.7%
Q1 - 11:19MIAMarion REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)0
13.9%
0
86.1%
Q1 - 11:20HOUMISS Alston Layup0
13.6%
0
86.4%
Q1 - 11:27HOUBattier REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)0
13.1%
0
86.9%
Q1 - 11:28MIAMISS Blount 14' Jump Shot0
13.3%
0
86.7%
Q1 - 11:41HOUAlston Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)0
13.9%
0
86.1%
Q1 - 12:00HOUJump Ball Yao vs. Blount: Tip to Battier0
13.1%
0
86.9%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIA
1.08 53.8%
HOU
1.19 59.6%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
MIA
18
25
72%
HOU
14
23
61%
Midrange
MIA
13
41
32%
HOU
19
32
59%
3PT | Effective 3PT
MIA
7
10.5
14
50%
75%
HOU
9
13.5
23
39%
59%
Free Throws
MIA
17
27
63%
HOU
19
27
70%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
MIA logo Heat
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
D. Wade3369%16.5 / 24
S. Marion1845%9.0 / 20
R. Davis1260%6.0 / 10
M. Blount1150%5.5 / 11
D. Wright844%4.0 / 9
J. Williams550%2.5 / 5
E. Barron542%2.5 / 6
A. Johnson563%2.5 / 4
M. Banks3150%1.5 / 1
C. Quinn0-0.0 / 2
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
HOU logo Rockets
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
T. McGrady2352%11.5 / 22
Yao2188%10.5 / 12
C. Landry1979%9.5 / 12
R. Alston1653%8.0 / 15
S. Battier1286%6.0 / 7
L. Scola1142%5.5 / 13
L. Head758%3.5 / 6
S. Novak375%1.5 / 2
A. Brooks0-0.0 / 2
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

MIA
80
+13
-11
93
HOU
80
+13
-11
93
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA
1.08 53.8%
HOU
1.19 59.6%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
100.2
106.4
MIA 109.9
HOU 123.1 +13.2
Pace
90.5
90.7
MIA 93.1 +4.2
HOU 89.0
Avg. Poss. Time
16.3
16.5
MIA 15.5 +0.7
HOU 16.2
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
48.2%
49.2%
MIA 51.9%
HOU 59.6% +7.7%
TO %
15.4%
14.4%
MIA 10.7% +0.2%
HOU 10.9%
ORB %
22.2%
29.1%
MIA 27.3%
HOU 31.3% +4.0%
FTrt
30.0
27.6
MIA 33.8
HOU 34.6 +0.8
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
58.5%
58.5%
MIA 63.2%
HOU 76.2% +13.0%
STL %
7.9%
8.0%
MIA 5.5%
HOU 7.7% +2.2%
BLK %
7.1%
7.8%
MIA 5.5% +4.0%
HOU 1.5%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
50.6%
51.2%
MIA 53.8%
HOU 59.6% +5.8%
Rim FG%
59.2%
57.9%
MIA 72.0% +11.1%
HOU 60.9%
Mid FG%
38.8%
40.6%
MIA 31.7%
HOU 59.4% +27.7%
3P %
35.8%
34.2%
MIA 50.0% +10.9%
HOU 39.1%
FT %
72.7%
72.6%
MIA 63.0%
HOU 70.4% +7.4%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
30.2%
33.9%
MIA 31.3% +1.8%
HOU 29.5%
Mid Att. %
48.1%
40.6%
MIA 51.2%
HOU 41.0% +10.2%
3P Att. %
21.7%
25.5%
MIA 17.5%
HOU 29.5% +12.0%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.
Game TotalsMIAHOU
Possessions9191
Possession Minutes23.424.6
Points100112
Rebounds3442
Assists2432
Steals57
Blocks31
Turnovers (Team)11 (0)11 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)12 (1)10 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)22 (4)32 (1)
Field Goals38-8042-78
At-the-Rim FG18-2514-23
Midrange FG13-4119-32
2-Point FG31-6633-55
3-Point FG7-149-23
Free Throws17-2719-27
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
F · 6'7" 228 · 30
42.3
18
45%
10
1
0
2
1
1
3
7
4-11
36%
4-11
36%
2-4
50%
G · 6'4" 220 · 26
39.5
33
69%
4
11
0
0
3
2
0
4
6-7
86%
12-18
67%
1-3
33%
F · 6'9" 205 · 22
34.3
8
44%
1
1
1
1
1
3
1
0
0-0
-
4-9
44%
0-0
-
C · 7'0" 250 · 32
30.0
11
50%
8
0
0
0
0
4
3
5
1-1
100%
5-11
45%
0-0
-
G · 6'1" 180 · 32
21.9
5
50%
1
4
2
0
1
1
0
1
0-0
-
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
G · 6'7" 195 · 28
22.8
12
60%
2
2
1
0
2
1
2
0
0-0
-
3-6
50%
2-4
50%
F-C · 7'0" 250 · 27
18.0
5
42%
3
1
0
0
2
3
2
1
3-4
75%
1-4
25%
0-0
-
F · 6'9" 240 · 25
13.9
5
63%
2
1
0
0
0
1
0
2
3-4
75%
1-2
50%
0-0
-
G · 6'2" 205 · 26
9.2
3
150%
0
2
1
0
1
1
0
0
0-0
-
0-0
-
1-1
100%
G · 6'2" 175 · 24
8.0
0
0%
3
1
0
0
0
0
1
2
0-0
-
0-2
0%
0-0
-
G · 6'5" 210 · 21
C · 6'9" 245 · 26
#40 · F · 6'8" 235 · 28
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
#21 · G · 6'4" 190 · 27
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
#33 · C · 6'10" 261 · 38
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
100
54%
34
24
5
3
11
0
12
22
17-27
63%
31-66
47%
7-14
50%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.