Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, January 27, 2008

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	18	Hawks	39%	92	93
	17	Trail Blazers	61%	95	94

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
ATL	114.8	81	86.0
POR	119.0	79	74.7

Scoring Opportunities

ATL

+18

-12

POR

+12

-10

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

1.07 53.4%

POR

1.16 58.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	ATL	POR
Q4 - 0:00.0	ATL		93 0%	94 100%
Q4 - 0:00.0	ATL	Hawks Rebound	93 1.4%	94 98.6%
Q4 - 0:00.0	ATL	MISS Johnson 25' 3PT Jump Shot	93 0.8%	94 99.2%
Q4 - 0:02.0	POR	Roy Free Throw 2 of 2 (24 PTS)	93 8.0%	94 92.0%
Q4 - 0:02.0	POR	MISS Roy Free Throw 1 of 2	93 24.1%	93 75.9%
Q4 - 0:09.0	ATL	Hawks Turnover: Shot Clock (T#13)	93 30.9%	93 69.1%
Q4 - 0:09.0	ATL	Hawks Rebound	93 59.6%	93 40.4%
Q4 - 0:09.0	ATL	MISS Johnson 21' Jump Shot	93 39.2%	93 60.8%
Q4 - 0:33.0	POR	Roy Driving Layup (23 PTS)	93 56.0%	93 44.0%
Q4 - 0:47.0	POR	Outlaw REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	93 68.0%	91 32.0%
Q4 - 0:48.0	ATL	MISS Johnson 8' Jump Shot	93 72.7%	91 27.3%
Q4 - 1:13	POR	Roy Driving Layup (21 PTS)	93 76.5%	91 23.5%
Q4 - 1:22	POR	Aldridge REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	93 82.8%	89 17.2%
Q4 - 1:24	ATL	Roy BLOCK (1 BLK)	93 85.1%	89 14.9%
Q4 - 1:45	POR	Aldridge Layup (16 PTS) (Roy 5 AST)	93 87.3%	89 12.7%
Q4 - 2:03	ATL	Smith Alley Oop Dunk (17 PTS) (Johnson 11 AST)	93 90.0%	87 10.0%
Q4 - 2:07	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:4 Def:8)	91 87.1%	87 12.8%
Q4 - 2:08	POR	MISS Outlaw 5' Running Jump Shot	91 84.8%	87 15.2%
Q4 - 2:27	ATL	Johnson Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P4.T12)	91 77.3%	87 22.7%
Q4 - 2:47	POR	Roy Free Throw 1 of 1 (19 PTS)	91 87.3%	87 12.7%
Q4 - 2:54	POR	Aldridge REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	91 91.6%	84 8.4%
Q4 - 2:55	ATL	MISS Johnson 3PT Jump Shot	91 92.9%	84 7.1%
Q4 - 3:16	POR	Jones 21' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Jack 3 AST)	91 95.2%	84 4.8%
Q4 - 3:20	POR	Outlaw REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	91 96.3%	82 3.7%
Q4 - 3:22	POR	MISS Outlaw 5' Jump Shot	91 97.5%	82 2.5%
Q4 - 3:42	ATL	Williams Alley Oop Layup (17 PTS) (Johnson 10 AST)	91 94.2%	82 5.8%
Q4 - 3:58	POR	Aldridge 15' Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Jack 2 AST)	89 92.2%	82 7.8%
Q4 - 4:22	ATL	Smith Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T11)	89 94.6%	80 5.4%
Q4 - 4:43	POR	Outlaw 4' Running Jump Shot (15 PTS)	89 96.3%	80 3.7%
Q4 - 5:01	ATL	Horford Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)	89 95.8%	78 4.2%
Q4 - 5:01	ATL	MISS Horford Free Throw 1 of 2	88 95.3%	78 4.7%
Q4 - 5:15	POR	Frye Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T10)	88 95.9%	78 4.1%
Q4 - 5:36	ATL	Johnson 25' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS)	88 94.4%	78 5.6%
Q4 - 5:57	POR	Roy Free Throw 1 of 1 (16 PTS)	85 89.8%	78 10.2%
Q4 - 6:16	ATL	Smith Traveling Turnover (P3.T10)	85 92.2%	75 7.8%
Q4 - 6:30	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	85 94.4%	75 5.6%
Q4 - 6:32	POR	MISS Rodriguez Driving Layup	85 93.8%	75 6.2%
Q4 - 6:47	ATL	Williams 19' Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Johnson 6 AST)	85 92.3%	75 7.7%
Q4 - 7:05	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	83 87.8%	75 12.2%
Q4 - 7:07	POR	MISS Outlaw 3PT Jump Shot	83 86.7%	75 13.3%
Q4 - 7:30	ATL	Childress Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T9)	83 84.2%	75 15.8%
Q4 - 7:54	POR	Outlaw 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Rodriguez 6 AST)	83 88.0%	75 12.0%
Q4 - 8:13	ATL	Pachulia 5' Jump Bank Shot (8 PTS) (Childress 5 AST)	83 90.8%	72 9.2%
Q4 - 8:33	POR	Outlaw 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Rodriguez 5 AST)	81 88.5%	72 11.5%
Q4 - 8:40	ATL	Johnson Foul Turnover (P3.T8)	81 92.8%	69 7.2%
Q4 - 9:05	POR	Frye 14' Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Roy 4 AST)	81 93.1%	69 6.9%
Q4 - 9:23	ATL	Johnson 18' Fadeaway Jumper (19 PTS)	81 94.5%	67 5.5%
Q4 - 9:51	POR	Frye 8' Turnaround Jump Shot (12 PTS)	79 93.2%	67 6.8%
Q4 - 10:20	ATL	Pachulia Dunk (6 PTS) (Law 2 AST)	79 93.4%	65 6.6%
Q4 - 10:32	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	77 92.0%	65 8.0%
Q4 - 10:33	POR	MISS Outlaw 21' Jump Shot	77 91.4%	65 8.6%
Q4 - 10:47	ATL	Johnson Driving Layup (17 PTS) (Williams 1 AST)	77 90.0%	65 10.0%
Q4 - 11:05	POR	Jones Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)	75 86.6%	65 13.4%
Q4 - 11:05	POR	Jones Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)	75 86.9%	64 13.1%
Q4 - 11:18	POR	Jones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	75 88.9%	63 11.1%
Q4 - 11:19	ATL	MISS Williams 15' Jump Shot	75 89.5%	63 10.5%
Q4 - 11:34	ATL	Williams Free Throw Flagrant 2 of 2 (13 PTS)	75 90.9%	63 9.1%
Q4 - 11:34	ATL	Williams Free Throw Flagrant 1 of 2 (12 PTS)	74 90.6%	63 9.4%
Q4 - 11:36	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	73 86.7%	63 13.3%
Q4 - 11:37	POR	MISS Roy 17' Jump Shot	73 85.9%	63 14.1%
Q3 - 0:00.0	ATL		73 83.9%	63 16.1%
Q3 - 0:00.0	ATL	Hawks Rebound	73 86.7%	63 13.3%
Q3 - 0:00.0	ATL	MISS Johnson 59' 3PT Jump Shot	73 84.8%	63 15.2%
Q3 - 0:02.0	POR	Frye 23' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Roy 3 AST)	73 85.0%	63 15.0%
Q3 - 0:27.0	ATL	Jones STEAL (1 STL)	73 87.6%	61 12.4%
Q3 - 0:48.0	POR	Outlaw 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Rodriguez 4 AST)	73 89.7%	61 10.3%
Q3 - 1:02	ATL	Pachulia Driving Layup (4 PTS)	73 91.7%	58 8.3%
Q3 - 1:26	POR	Frye 18' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Roy 2 AST)	71 90.2%	58 9.8%
Q3 - 1:36	POR	Frye REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	71 91.8%	56 8.2%
Q3 - 1:38	POR	MISS Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot	71 92.8%	56 7.2%
Q3 - 1:59	POR	Frye REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	71 91.8%	56 8.2%
Q3 - 1:59	ATL	MISS Childress Driving Layup	71 92.2%	56 7.8%
Q3 - 2:16	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	71 92.0%	56 8.0%
Q3 - 2:17	POR	MISS Outlaw 8' Jump Shot	71 91.5%	56 8.5%
Q3 - 2:46	ATL	Smith Driving Dunk (15 PTS) (Childress 4 AST)	71 90.5%	56 9.5%
Q3 - 2:52	ATL	Childress REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)	69 88.9%	56 11.1%
Q3 - 2:53	POR	MISS Roy 19' Fadeaway Jumper	69 88.3%	56 11.7%
Q3 - 3:17	POR	Frye REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	69 85.7%	56 14.3%
Q3 - 3:18	ATL	MISS Johnson 18' Fadeaway Jumper	69 86.4%	56 13.6%
Q3 - 3:47	POR	Roy 19' Jump Shot (13 PTS)	69 87.9%	56 12.1%
Q3 - 4:10	ATL	Smith 8' Turnaround Hook Shot (13 PTS) (Childress 3 AST)	69 88.3%	54 11.7%
Q3 - 4:27	POR	Aldridge Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)	67 86.8%	54 13.2%
Q3 - 4:27	POR	Aldridge Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)	67 87.2%	53 12.8%
Q3 - 4:27	POR	Aldridge REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	67 88.4%	52 11.6%
Q3 - 4:27	POR	MISS Jones 17' Jump Shot	67 89.7%	52 10.3%
Q3 - 4:49	ATL	Horford Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)	67 88.5%	52 11.5%
Q3 - 4:49	ATL	MISS Horford Free Throw 1 of 2	66 87.9%	52 12.1%
Q3 - 5:02	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	66 87.6%	52 12.4%
Q3 - 5:03	POR	MISS Frye 20' Jump Shot	66 87.0%	52 13.0%
Q3 - 5:19	ATL	Smith Driving Layup (11 PTS) (Johnson 9 AST)	66 85.5%	52 14.5%
Q3 - 5:30	POR	Aldridge 15' Jump Shot (10 PTS)	64 83.6%	52 16.4%
Q3 - 5:46	ATL	Johnson 20' Jump Shot (15 PTS)	64 85.6%	50 14.4%
Q3 - 6:04	POR	Roy Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T9)	62 82.1%	50 17.9%
Q3 - 6:13	POR	Roy REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	62 79.5%	50 20.5%
Q3 - 6:14	ATL	MISS Johnson 13' Turnaround Jump Shot	62 80.4%	50 19.6%
Q3 - 6:35	POR	Frye 7' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Blake 4 AST)	62 82.3%	50 17.7%
Q3 - 6:47	ATL	Johnson Driving Layup (9 PTS)	62 84.4%	48 15.6%
Q3 - 7:01	POR	Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Blake 3 AST)	60 81.1%	48 18.9%
Q3 - 7:25	ATL	Williams 19' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Johnson 8 AST)	60 85.1%	45 14.9%
Q3 - 7:36	ATL	Hawks Rebound	58 83.4%	45 16.6%
Q3 - 7:36	ATL	MISS Johnson 3PT Jump Shot	58 81.6%	45 18.4%
Q3 - 7:47	POR	Frye Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	58 83.4%	45 16.6%
Q3 - 7:47	POR	Frye Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	58 83.8%	44 16.2%
Q3 - 8:05	POR	Blake REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	58 84.4%	43 15.6%
Q3 - 8:06	ATL	MISS Johnson 3PT Jump Shot	58 85.1%	43 14.9%
Q3 - 8:31	POR	Aldridge Dunk (8 PTS) (Roy 1 AST)	58 86.6%	43 13.4%
Q3 - 8:52	ATL	Williams Alley Oop Dunk (9 PTS) (Johnson 7 AST)	58 88.1%	41 11.9%
Q3 - 9:00	POR	Blake Backcourt Turnover (P3.T8)	56 86.6%	41 13.4%
Q3 - 9:12	ATL	Webster STEAL (3 STL)	56 83.4%	41 16.6%
Q3 - 9:16	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:4 Def:7)	56 85.4%	41 14.6%
Q3 - 9:17	ATL	MISS Smith 22' Jump Shot	56 84.0%	41 16.0%
Q3 - 9:40	POR	Roy Driving Layup (11 PTS)	56 85.4%	41 14.6%
Q3 - 9:51	POR	Aldridge REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	56 87.1%	39 12.9%
Q3 - 9:52	ATL	MISS Smith 19' Jump Shot	56 87.6%	39 12.4%
Q3 - 10:17	POR	Aldridge 10' Turnaround Jump Shot (6 PTS)	56 87.8%	39 12.2%
Q3 - 10:35	POR	Webster REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	56 89.1%	37 10.9%
Q3 - 10:37	POR	MISS Aldridge 10' Jump Shot	56 90.2%	37 9.8%
Q3 - 10:58	ATL	Horford 16' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Johnson 5 AST)	56 89.2%	37 10.8%
Q3 - 11:12	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:3 Def:7)	54 86.9%	37 13.1%
Q3 - 11:13	ATL	MISS Johnson 21' Jump Shot	54 85.7%	37 14.3%
Q3 - 11:19	POR	Aldridge Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T7)	54 86.9%	37 13.1%
Q3 - 11:38	ATL	Smith 22' Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Johnson 4 AST)	54 85.2%	37 14.8%
Q2 - 0:00.0	ATL		52 83.5%	37 16.5%
Q2 - 0:00.0	ATL	Hawks Rebound	52 83.5%	37 16.5%
Q2 - 0:00.0	ATL	MISS Johnson 71' 3PT Jump Shot	52 82.1%	37 17.9%
Q2 - 0:02.0	POR	Roy Free Throw 1 of 1 (9 PTS)	52 81.8%	37 18.2%
Q2 - 0:17.0	ATL	Johnson Free Throw 1 of 1 (13 PTS)	52 86.0%	34 14.0%
Q2 - 0:20.0	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	49 81.9%	34 18.1%
Q2 - 0:22.0	POR	MISS Webster Layup	49 81.5%	34 18.5%
Q2 - 0:26.0	ATL	Webster STEAL (2 STL)	49 80.5%	34 19.5%
Q2 - 0:44.0	POR	Aldridge Double Dribble Turnover (P1.T6)	49 82.0%	34 18.0%
Q2 - 0:56.0	POR	Roy REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	49 80.6%	34 19.4%
Q2 - 0:57.0	POR	MISS Webster 24' 3PT Jump Shot	49 81.6%	34 18.4%
Q2 - 1:21	ATL	Smith Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T4)	49 79.8%	34 20.2%
Q2 - 1:43	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:2 Def:7)	49 80.9%	34 19.1%
Q2 - 1:45	POR	MISS Roy 24' 3PT Jump Shot	49 80.6%	34 19.4%
Q2 - 2:11	ATL	Johnson 24' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Johnson 3 AST)	49 78.3%	34 21.7%
Q2 - 2:29	POR	Webster 22' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Blake 2 AST)	46 73.7%	34 26.3%
Q2 - 2:36	POR	Blake REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	46 76.2%	32 23.8%
Q2 - 2:37	ATL	MISS Childress Layup	46 76.9%	32 23.1%
Q2 - 2:38	ATL	Childress REBOUND (Off:3 Def:0)	46 78.2%	32 21.8%
Q2 - 2:39	ATL	Childress REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	46 78.2%	32 21.8%
Q2 - 2:39	ATL	MISS Childress Tip Shot	46 76.9%	32 23.1%
Q2 - 2:41	ATL	MISS Smith 14' Jump Shot	46 76.9%	32 23.1%
Q2 - 2:54	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	46 78.2%	32 21.8%
Q2 - 2:55	POR	MISS Blake 25' 3PT Jump Shot	46 77.7%	32 22.3%
Q2 - 3:14	ATL	Johnson 6' Running Jump Shot (10 PTS)	46 74.4%	32 25.6%
Q2 - 3:16	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	44 72.4%	32 27.6%
Q2 - 3:19	ATL	MISS Childress 21' Jump Shot	44 70.5%	32 29.5%
Q2 - 3:35	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	44 72.4%	32 27.6%
Q2 - 3:36	ATL	MISS Childress Driving Layup	44 70.5%	32 29.5%
Q2 - 3:45	POR	Roy 5' Jump Hook Shot (6 PTS)	44 72.4%	32 27.6%
Q2 - 4:02	POR	Przybilla REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	44 73.2%	30 26.8%
Q2 - 4:03	POR	MISS Aldridge 11' Turnaround Jump Shot	44 74.7%	30 25.3%
Q2 - 4:15	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	44 73.3%	30 26.7%
Q2 - 4:15	ATL	Smith Putback Dunk (7 PTS)	44 73.3%	30 26.7%
Q2 - 4:17	ATL	MISS Johnson Layup	42 69.3%	30 30.7%
Q2 - 4:21	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	42 70.9%	30 29.1%
Q2 - 4:22	POR	MISS Blake 24' 3PT Jump Shot	42 70.2%	30 29.8%
Q2 - 4:39	POR	Przybilla REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	42 68.6%	30 31.4%
Q2 - 4:40	ATL	MISS Horford 6' Jump Shot	42 69.3%	30 30.7%
Q2 - 4:54	POR	Blake Traveling Turnover (P2.T5)	42 71.0%	30 29.0%
Q2 - 4:56	POR	TRAIL BLAZERS Rebound	42 68.6%	30 31.4%
Q2 - 4:57	POR	MISS Jones 24' 3PT Jump Shot	42 70.3%	30 29.7%
Q2 - 5:04	POR	Aldridge REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	42 67.7%	30 32.3%
Q2 - 5:05	ATL	MISS Johnson 3PT Jump Shot	42 68.5%	30 31.5%
Q2 - 5:25	POR	Roy Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	42 70.4%	30 29.6%
Q2 - 5:25	POR	Roy Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	42 70.8%	29 29.2%
Q2 - 5:29	POR	Aldridge REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	42 72.5%	28 27.5%
Q2 - 5:31	ATL	MISS Johnson 19' Jump Shot	42 73.2%	28 26.8%
Q2 - 5:36	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	42 74.9%	28 25.1%
Q2 - 5:37	POR	MISS Jack Driving Layup	42 74.2%	28 25.8%
Q2 - 6:03	ATL	Johnson 4' Running Jump Shot (4 PTS)	42 71.4%	28 28.6%
Q2 - 6:24	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	40 69.7%	28 30.3%
Q2 - 6:25	POR	MISS Rodriguez 3PT Jump Shot	40 68.8%	28 31.2%
Q2 - 6:43	ATL	Williams Driving Dunk (7 PTS) (Johnson 2 AST)	40 66.8%	28 33.2%
Q2 - 6:49	POR	Jones Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T4)	38 64.9%	28 35.1%
Q2 - 6:52	POR	Jones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	38 61.8%	28 38.2%
Q2 - 6:54	POR	MISS Rodriguez 25' 3PT Jump Shot	38 63.9%	28 36.1%
Q2 - 7:10	POR	Jack REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	38 60.9%	28 39.1%
Q2 - 7:12	ATL	MISS Johnson Driving Layup	38 61.7%	28 38.3%
Q2 - 7:18	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	38 63.6%	28 36.4%
Q2 - 7:19	POR	MISS Outlaw 12' Fadeaway Jumper	38 62.8%	28 37.2%
Q2 - 7:31	POR	Rodriguez REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	38 60.9%	28 39.1%
Q2 - 7:33	ATL	MISS Law 3PT Jump Shot	38 61.8%	28 38.2%
Q2 - 7:42	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	38 63.6%	28 36.4%
Q2 - 7:43	POR	MISS Jones 21' Jump Shot	38 62.8%	28 37.2%
Q2 - 8:06	ATL	Childress Driving Layup (5 PTS) (Law 1 AST)	38 60.2%	28 39.8%
Q2 - 8:24	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	36 58.1%	28 41.9%
Q2 - 8:25	POR	MISS Jack 24' 3PT Jump Shot	36 57.2%	28 42.8%
Q2 - 8:55	ATL	Law Layup (4 PTS) (Pachulia 1 AST)	36 55.2%	28 44.8%
Q2 - 9:09	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	34 52.3%	28 47.7%
Q2 - 9:12	ATL	MISS Johnson 18' Fadeaway Jumper	34 50.4%	28 49.6%
Q2 - 9:36	POR	Outlaw Driving Dunk (4 PTS)	34 52.4%	28 47.6%
Q2 - 9:57	ATL	Law 9' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Johnson 1 AST)	34 54.6%	26 45.4%
Q2 - 10:21	POR	Jones 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Jack 1 AST)	32 52.1%	26 47.9%
Q2 - 10:35	ATL	Pachulia Foul Turnover (P1.T3)	32 56.7%	23 43.3%
Q2 - 11:03	POR	Outlaw Slam Dunk (2 PTS) (Rodriguez 3 AST)	32 58.3%	23 41.7%
Q2 - 11:12	POR	Frye REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	32 60.7%	21 39.3%
Q2 - 11:14	ATL	MISS Pachulia Free Throw 2 of 2	32 61.0%	21 39.0%
Q2 - 11:14	ATL	MISS Pachulia Free Throw 1 of 2	32 62.5%	21 37.5%
Q2 - 11:28	POR	Frye 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Rodriguez 2 AST)	32 63.0%	21 37.0%
Q2 - 11:38	ATL	Childress Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)	32 65.3%	19 34.7%
Q2 - 11:38	ATL	Childress REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	29 60.8%	19 39.2%
Q2 - 11:39	ATL	MISS Williams 22' Jump Shot	29 59.1%	19 40.9%
Q1 - 0:00.0	ATL		29 60.8%	19 39.2%
Q1 - 0:00.0	ATL	Hawks Rebound	29 60.8%	19 39.2%
Q1 - 0:00.0	ATL	MISS Lue 40' 3PT Jump Shot	29 59.2%	19 40.8%
Q1 - 0:03.0	POR	Rodriguez Driving Layup (4 PTS)	29 59.7%	19 40.3%
Q1 - 0:28.0	ATL	Pachulia 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Lue 1 AST)	29 62.6%	17 37.4%
Q1 - 0:37.0	POR	Jack 7' Running Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Rodriguez 1 AST)	27 59.8%	17 40.2%
Q1 - 0:43.0	POR	Outlaw REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	27 62.6%	15 37.4%
Q1 - 0:44.0	ATL	MISS Lue 20' Jump Shot	27 63.1%	15 36.9%
Q1 - 0:52.0	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	27 64.3%	15 35.7%
Q1 - 0:53.0	POR	MISS Outlaw 22' Jump Shot	27 63.8%	15 36.2%
Q1 - 1:09	ATL	Lue 22' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	27 62.4%	15 37.6%
Q1 - 1:34	POR	Rodriguez Driving Layup (2 PTS)	25 59.7%	15 40.3%
Q1 - 1:52	ATL	Williams Free Throw 1 of 1 (5 PTS)	25 62.4%	13 37.6%
Q1 - 1:54	POR	Jack Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T3)	22 57.4%	13 42.6%
Q1 - 2:03	POR	TRAIL BLAZERS Rebound	22 55.3%	13 44.7%
Q1 - 2:05	POR	MISS Outlaw 21' Jump Shot	22 56.8%	13 43.2%
Q1 - 2:15	POR	Frye REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	22 55.3%	13 44.7%
Q1 - 2:16	ATL	MISS Horford Driving Layup	22 55.9%	13 44.1%
Q1 - 2:40	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	22 57.4%	13 42.6%
Q1 - 2:41	POR	MISS Frye 14' Jump Shot	22 56.8%	13 43.2%
Q1 - 2:58	ATL	Smith Discontinue Dribble Turnover (P1.T2)	22 55.3%	13 44.7%
Q1 - 3:17	POR	Roy Driving Layup (2 PTS)	22 56.6%	13 43.4%
Q1 - 3:34	ATL	Johnson 18' Jump Shot (8 PTS)	22 58.6%	11 41.4%
Q1 - 3:50	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	20 56.7%	11 43.3%
Q1 - 3:54	POR	MISS Roy 17' Jump Shot	20 55.9%	11 44.1%
Q1 - 4:09	ATL	Horford Alley Oop Layup (5 PTS) (Johnson 6 AST)	20 53.4%	11 46.6%
Q1 - 4:26	ATL	Hawks Rebound	18 51.7%	11 48.3%
Q1 - 4:26	POR	MISS Aldridge 5' Hook Shot	18 50.9%	11 49.1%
Q1 - 4:29	POR	Aldridge REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	18 49.0%	11 51.0%
Q1 - 4:31	POR	MISS Webster 17' Fadeaway Jumper	18 50.9%	11 49.1%
Q1 - 4:59	ATL	Smith Slam Dunk (5 PTS) (Johnson 5 AST)	18 49.0%	11 51.0%
Q1 - 5:04	POR	Blake 15' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	16 46.2%	11 53.8%
Q1 - 5:15	POR	Frye REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	16 48.1%	9 51.9%
Q1 - 5:16	ATL	MISS Johnson 10' Jump Shot	16 48.9%	9 51.1%
Q1 - 5:35	POR	Webster Free Throw 2 of 2 (3 PTS)	16 50.5%	9 49.5%
Q1 - 5:35	POR	MISS Webster Free Throw 1 of 2	16 51.0%	8 49.0%
Q1 - 5:51	ATL	Johnson 19' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Johnson 4 AST)	16 50.3%	8 49.7%
Q1 - 5:58	POR	Webster Driving Dunk (2 PTS) (Blake 1 AST)	14 48.5%	8 51.5%
Q1 - 6:13	POR	Przybilla REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	14 49.5%	6 50.5%
Q1 - 6:15	POR	MISS Roy 14' Jump Shot	14 50.9%	6 49.1%
Q1 - 6:30	ATL	Johnson 19' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Horford 1 AST)	14 49.5%	6 50.5%
Q1 - 6:35	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	12 47.6%	6 52.4%
Q1 - 6:38	ATL	MISS Williams 13' Jump Shot	12 46.1%	6 53.9%
Q1 - 6:46	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	12 47.6%	6 52.4%
Q1 - 6:47	ATL	MISS Horford Free Throw 2 of 2	12 45.7%	6 54.3%
Q1 - 6:47	ATL	Horford Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	12 46.9%	6 53.1%
Q1 - 6:49	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	11 45.6%	6 54.4%
Q1 - 6:50	POR	MISS Webster 21' Jump Shot	11 44.9%	6 55.1%
Q1 - 6:56	POR	Webster REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	11 43.5%	6 56.5%
Q1 - 6:58	POR	MISS Aldridge 21' Jump Shot	11 44.9%	6 55.1%
Q1 - 7:15	ATL	Johnson Layup (2 PTS)	11 42.7%	6 57.3%
Q1 - 7:18	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	9 41.0%	6 59.0%
Q1 - 7:19	ATL	MISS Johnson Layup	9 39.6%	6 60.4%
Q1 - 7:31	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	9 41.1%	6 58.9%
Q1 - 7:32	POR	MISS Webster 18' Jump Shot	9 40.4%	6 59.6%
Q1 - 8:03	ATL	Johnson 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Smith 1 AST)	9 39.0%	6 61.0%
Q1 - 8:11	POR	Blake Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T2)	7 37.4%	6 62.6%
Q1 - 8:37	ATL	Williams 21' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Johnson 3 AST)	7 35.5%	6 64.5%
Q1 - 8:47	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	5 34.0%	6 66.0%
Q1 - 8:49	POR	MISS Webster 25' 3PT Jump Shot	5 33.4%	6 66.6%
Q1 - 9:08	ATL	Smith Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)	5 31.8%	6 68.2%
Q1 - 9:21	POR	Aldridge Driving Layup (4 PTS)	2 29.0%	6 71.0%
Q1 - 9:36	ATL	Horford 17' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Johnson 1 AST)	2 30.2%	4 69.8%
Q1 - 9:58	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 29.0%	4 71.0%
Q1 - 10:00	POR	MISS Roy 20' Step Back Jump Shot	0 28.4%	4 71.6%
Q1 - 10:21	POR	Przybilla REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 27.2%	4 72.8%
Q1 - 10:22	ATL	MISS Smith 20' Jump Shot	0 27.7%	4 72.3%
Q1 - 10:34	POR	Aldridge 8' Turnaround Jump Shot (2 PTS)	0 28.9%	4 71.1%
Q1 - 10:51	ATL	Webster STEAL (1 STL)	0 30.2%	2 69.8%
Q1 - 11:05	POR	Przybilla Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	0 31.9%	2 68.1%
Q1 - 11:05	POR	Przybilla Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	0 32.5%	1 67.5%
Q1 - 11:29	POR	Aldridge REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 33.6%	0 66.4%
Q1 - 11:31	ATL	MISS Johnson 19' Jump Shot	0 34.1%	0 65.9%
Q1 - 11:46	POR	Webster Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)	0 35.2%	0 64.8%
Q1 - 12:00	POR	Jump Ball Przybilla vs. Smith: Tip to Roy	0 33.6%	0 66.4%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

1.07 53.4%

POR

1.16 58.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

ATL

69%

POR

74%

Midrange

ATL

50%

POR

43%

3PT | Effective 3PT

ATL

3.0

18%

27%

POR

7.5

31%

47%

Free Throws

ATL

64%

POR

88%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Hawks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Johnson	19	40%	9.5 / 24
M. Williams	17	94%	8.5 / 9
J. Smith	17	65%	8.5 / 13
A. Johnson	12	67%	6.0 / 9
A. Horford	9	56%	4.5 / 8
Z. Pachulia	8	80%	4.0 / 5
J. Childress	5	36%	2.5 / 7
A. Law	4	67%	2.0 / 3
T. Lue	2	33%	1.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Trail Blazers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Roy	24	71%	12.0 / 17
L. Aldridge	16	67%	8.0 / 12
T. Outlaw	15	54%	7.5 / 14
C. Frye	14	78%	7.0 / 9
J. Jones	10	63%	5.0 / 8
M. Webster	5	28%	2.5 / 9
S. Rodriguez	4	40%	2.0 / 5
S. Blake	2	33%	1.0 / 3
J. Przybilla	2	100%	1.0 / 1
J. Jack	2	33%	1.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

ATL

+18

-12

POR

+12

-10

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

1.07 53.4%

POR

1.16 58.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	106.6 107.2	ATL 114.8 POR 119.0 +4.2
Pace	91.4 88.0	ATL 86.0 +11.3 POR 74.7
Avg. Poss. Time	15.6 17.1	ATL 16.8 +2.5 POR 19.3
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	48.3% 48.9%	ATL 53.8% +0.4% POR 53.4%
TO %	15.5% 13.6%	ATL 13.4% POR 10.9% +2.5%
ORB %	29.8% 26.8%	ATL 36.4% +7.0% POR 29.4%
FTrt	34.0 28.1	ATL 17.9 POR 23.0 +5.1
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	60.6% 59.0%	ATL 70.7% +19.3% POR 51.4%
STL %	7.9% 6.2%	ATL 7.4% +2.3% POR 5.1%
BLK %	8.4% 7.0%	ATL 5.2% +3.7% POR 1.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	52.0% 51.8%	ATL 53.4% POR 58.0% +4.6%
Rim FG%	58.6% 57.4%	ATL 69.0% POR 73.9% +4.9%
Mid FG%	38.5% 41.9%	ATL 50.0% +7.1% POR 42.9%
3P %	35.6% 37.7%	ATL 18.2% POR 31.3% +13.1%
FT %	77.2% 76.7%	ATL 64.3% POR 88.2% +23.9%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	36.9% 24.9%	ATL 37.2% +6.1% POR 31.1%
Mid Att. %	46.7% 53.3%	ATL 48.7% POR 47.3% +1.4%
3P Att. %	16.5% 21.8%	ATL 14.1% POR 21.6% +7.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.31 and 2.31.

Game Totals	ATL	POR
Possessions	81	79
Possession Minutes	22.6	25.4
Points	93	94
Rebounds	36	31
Assists	29	19
Steals	6	4
Blocks	3	1
Turnovers (Team)	12 (1)	10 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	12 (6)	10 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	24 (1)	21 (0)
Field Goals	41-78	37-74
At-the-Rim FG	20-29	17-23
Midrange FG	19-38	15-35
2-Point FG	39-67	32-58
3-Point FG	2-11	5-16
Free Throws	9-14	15-17
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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18 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Joe Johnson G · 6'7" 240 · 27	44.9	19	40%	7	6	1	0	4	3	2	5	1-1	100%	9-18	50%	0-6	0%
Al Horford C · 6'10" 245 · 22	35.9	9	56%	12	1	0	0	1	2	4	8	3-6	50%	3-5	60%	0-0	-
Marvin Williams F · 6'9" 237 · 22	35.4	17	94%	5	1	0	1	1	2	2	3	3-3	100%	7-10	70%	0-0	-
Anthony Johnson G · 6'3" 195 · 33	32.3	12	67%	0	11	1	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	3-6	50%	2-3	67%
Josh Smith F · 6'9" 225 · 22	32.0	17	65%	4	1	3	2	4	3	1	3	1-1	100%	8-13	62%	0-0	-
Josh Childress F-G · 6'8" 210 · 25	25.6	5	36%	4	5	1	0	1	1	3	1	1-1	100%	2-7	29%	0-0	-
Acie Law G · 6'3" 202 · 23	15.7	4	67%	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-1	0%
Zaza Pachulia C · 6'11" 270 · 24	14.8	8	80%	4	1	0	0	1	4	0	4	0-2	0%	4-4	100%	0-0	-
Tyronn Lue G · 6'0" 175 · 31	3.1	2	33%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Mario West G · 6'5" 210 · 24	0.3	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Solomon Jones F · 6'10" 235 · 24
Salim Stoudamire G · 6'1" 175 · 25
Shelden Williams #33 · C-F · 6'9" 250 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Lorenzen Wright #42 · F-C · 6'11" 255 · 32	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Speedy Claxton #12 · G · 5'11" 170 · 30	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	93	53%	36	29	6	3	12	0	12	24	9-14	64%	39-67	58%	2-11	18%

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18 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Joe Johnson G · 6'7" 240 · 27	44.9	19	40%	7	6	1	0	4	3	2	5	1-1	100%	9-18	50%	0-6	0%
Al Horford C · 6'10" 245 · 22	35.9	9	56%	12	1	0	0	1	2	4	8	3-6	50%	3-5	60%	0-0	-
Marvin Williams F · 6'9" 237 · 22	35.4	17	94%	5	1	0	1	1	2	2	3	3-3	100%	7-10	70%	0-0	-
Anthony Johnson G · 6'3" 195 · 33	32.3	12	67%	0	11	1	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	3-6	50%	2-3	67%
Josh Smith F · 6'9" 225 · 22	32.0	17	65%	4	1	3	2	4	3	1	3	1-1	100%	8-13	62%	0-0	-
Josh Childress F-G · 6'8" 210 · 25	25.6	5	36%	4	5	1	0	1	1	3	1	1-1	100%	2-7	29%	0-0	-
Acie Law G · 6'3" 202 · 23	15.7	4	67%	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-1	0%
Zaza Pachulia C · 6'11" 270 · 24	14.8	8	80%	4	1	0	0	1	4	0	4	0-2	0%	4-4	100%	0-0	-
Tyronn Lue G · 6'0" 175 · 31	3.1	2	33%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Mario West G · 6'5" 210 · 24	0.3	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Solomon Jones F · 6'10" 235 · 24
Salim Stoudamire G · 6'1" 175 · 25
Shelden Williams #33 · C-F · 6'9" 250 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Lorenzen Wright #42 · F-C · 6'11" 255 · 32	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Speedy Claxton #12 · G · 5'11" 170 · 30	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	93	53%	36	29	6	3	12	0	12	24	9-14	64%	39-67	58%	2-11	18%

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17 Portland Trail Blazers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Brandon Roy G · 6'6" 211 · 24	40.4	24	71%	2	5	0	1	1	1	1	1	6-7	86%	9-14	64%	0-1	0%
LaMarcus Aldridge F · 6'11" 260 · 23	29.8	16	67%	8	0	0	0	2	1	2	6	2-2	100%	7-11	64%	0-0	-
Steve Blake G · 6'3" 172 · 28	24.0	2	33%	2	4	0	0	3	2	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Martell Webster F · 6'7" 230 · 21	15.7	5	28%	2	0	3	0	1	0	2	0	1-2	50%	2-6	33%	0-2	0%
Joel Przybilla C · 7'1" 245 · 28	14.1	2	100%	4	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	2-2	100%	0-0	-	0-0	-
James Jones G-F · 6'8" 218 · 27	32.3	10	63%	2	0	1	0	1	5	1	1	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	2-4	50%
Travis Outlaw F · 6'9" 207 · 23	26.6	15	54%	3	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	0-0	-	3-10	30%	3-4	75%
Channing Frye F · 6'11" 255 · 25	25.4	14	78%	6	1	0	0	1	1	1	5	2-2	100%	6-8	75%	0-0	-
Sergio Rodriguez G · 6'3" 176 · 22	16.1	4	40%	1	6	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-2	0%
Jarrett Jack G · 6'3" 200 · 24	15.5	2	33%	1	3	0	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Raef LaFrentz C-F · 6'11" 240 · 32
Taurean Green G · 6'0" 177 · 21
Greg Oden #52 · C · 7'0" 273 · 20	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Darius Miles #23 · F · 6'9" 235 · 26	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Josh McRoberts #4 · · 6'10" 240 · 21	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	94	58%	31	19	4	1	10	0	10	21	15-17	88%	32-58	55%	5-16	31%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE