Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, January 26, 2008

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	7	Hornets	27%	89	102
	3	Spurs	73%	97	78

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
NOH	117.2	87	85.2
SAS	90.7	86	87.9

Scoring Opportunities

NOH

+13

-10

SAS

+11

-11

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

NOH

1.13 56.7%

SAS

0.90 44.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	NOH	SAS
Q4 - 0:00.0	NOH		102 100%	78 0%
Q4 - 0:24.0	SAS	Udoka 15' Fadeaway Jumper (13 PTS) (Richardson 1 AST)	102 99.9%	78 0.1%
Q4 - 0:37.0	NOH	Ely 1' Dunk (2 PTS) (Pargo 2 AST)	102 99.9%	76 0.1%
Q4 - 0:48.0	NOH	Wright REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	100 99.9%	76 0.1%
Q4 - 0:49.0	SAS	MISS Richardson 25' 3PT Jump Shot	100 99.9%	76 0.1%
Q4 - 1:01	SAS	Vaughn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	100 99.9%	76 0.1%
Q4 - 1:03	NOH	MISS Wright 16' Jump Shot	100 99.9%	76 0.1%
Q4 - 1:15	SAS	Richardson 17' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Vaughn 3 AST)	100 99.9%	76 0.1%
Q4 - 1:26	SAS	Elson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	100 99.9%	74 0.1%
Q4 - 1:30	NOH	MISS Ely 6' Running Jump Shot	100 99.9%	74 0.1%
Q4 - 1:54	SAS	Vaughn Foul Turnover (P2.T11)	100 99.9%	74 0.1%
Q4 - 2:01	NOH	Armstrong Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	100 99.9%	74 0.1%
Q4 - 2:01	NOH	Armstrong Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	99 99.9%	74 0.1%
Q4 - 2:01	NOH	Armstrong REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	98 99.9%	74 0.1%
Q4 - 2:03	NOH	MISS Pargo 24' 3PT Jump Shot	98 99.9%	74 0.1%
Q4 - 2:22	SAS	Udoka 1' Reverse Layup (11 PTS)	98 99.9%	74 0.1%
Q4 - 2:36	SAS	Udoka REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)	98 99.9%	72 0.1%
Q4 - 2:38	NOH	MISS Butler 17' Jump Shot	98 99.9%	72 0.1%
Q4 - 2:48	NOH	Wright REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	98 99.9%	72 0.1%
Q4 - 2:50	SAS	MISS Elson 8' Jump Shot	98 99.9%	72 0.1%
Q4 - 2:53	SAS	Elson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	98 99.9%	72 0.1%
Q4 - 2:56	SAS	MISS Vaughn 20' Jump Shot	98 99.9%	72 0.1%
Q4 - 3:08	NOH	Hornets Turnover: Shot Clock (T#13)	98 99.9%	72 0.1%
Q4 - 3:08	NOH	Hornets Rebound	98 99.9%	72 0.1%
Q4 - 3:08	NOH	MISS Paul 28' 3PT Jump Bank Shot	98 99.9%	72 0.1%
Q4 - 3:32	NOH	Paul REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	98 99.9%	72 0.1%
Q4 - 3:33	SAS	MISS Bonner 24' 3PT Jump Shot	98 99.9%	72 0.1%
Q4 - 3:55	NOH	Stojakovic 24' 3PT Jump Shot (22 PTS) (Pargo 1 AST)	98 99.9%	72 0.1%
Q4 - 4:11	SAS	Elson 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Vaughn 2 AST)	95 99.9%	72 0.1%
Q4 - 4:34	NOH	Paul 17' Jump Shot (17 PTS)	95 99.9%	70 0.1%
Q4 - 5:01	NOH	Chandler REBOUND (Off:3 Def:9)	93 99.9%	70 0.1%
Q4 - 5:02	SAS	MISS Parker 19' Jump Shot	93 99.9%	70 0.1%
Q4 - 5:15	NOH	Paul 19' Jump Shot (15 PTS)	93 99.9%	70 0.1%
Q4 - 5:47	SAS	Parker 22' Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Udoka 1 AST)	91 99.8%	70 0.2%
Q4 - 6:09	NOH	Pargo 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Stojakovic 1 AST)	91 99.7%	68 0.3%
Q4 - 6:25	NOH	Chandler REBOUND (Off:3 Def:8)	88 99.5%	68 0.5%
Q4 - 6:26	SAS	MISS Finley 24' 3PT Jump Shot	88 99.5%	68 0.5%
Q4 - 6:39	SAS	Udoka REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)	88 99.4%	68 0.6%
Q4 - 6:40	NOH	MISS West Free Throw 1 of 1	88 99.4%	68 0.6%
Q4 - 6:53	SAS	Udoka 1' Layup (9 PTS)	86 99.2%	68 0.8%
Q4 - 6:58	SAS	Udoka REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)	86 99.4%	66 0.6%
Q4 - 7:00	SAS	MISS Richardson 24' 3PT Jump Shot	86 99.5%	66 0.5%
Q4 - 7:33	NOH	Bowen 1' Layup (4 PTS) (Paul 11 AST)	86 98.9%	66 1.1%
Q4 - 7:37	NOH	West REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7)	84 98.6%	66 1.4%
Q4 - 7:38	SAS	MISS Udoka 3PT Jump Shot	84 98.5%	66 1.5%
Q4 - 7:50	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	84 98.1%	66 1.9%
Q4 - 7:51	NOH	MISS Paul 24' 3PT Jump Shot	84 98.3%	66 1.7%
Q4 - 8:10	NOH	Chandler REBOUND (Off:3 Def:7)	84 97.9%	66 2.1%
Q4 - 8:11	SAS	MISS Duncan 7' Jump Shot	84 97.7%	66 2.3%
Q4 - 8:25	NOH	West 5' Jump Shot (30 PTS)	84 97.3%	66 2.7%
Q4 - 8:44	SAS	Ginobili Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T10)	82 96.6%	66 3.4%
Q4 - 9:01	NOH	Paul 14' Fadeaway Jumper (13 PTS)	82 94.3%	66 5.7%
Q4 - 9:12	SAS	Udoka Step Out of Bounds Turnover (P2.T9)	80 93.0%	66 7.0%
Q4 - 9:12	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	80 91.1%	66 8.9%
Q4 - 9:13	SAS	MISS Duncan 6' Jump Shot	80 92.5%	66 7.5%
Q4 - 9:37	NOH	Chandler 1' Alley Oop Dunk (8 PTS) (Paul 10 AST)	80 91.2%	66 8.8%
Q4 - 9:47	NOH	Pargo REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	78 89.3%	66 10.7%
Q4 - 9:48	SAS	MISS Finley 20' Jump Shot	78 88.5%	66 11.5%
Q4 - 10:03	NOH	West 12' Fadeaway Jumper (28 PTS)	78 84.4%	66 15.6%
Q4 - 10:16	NOH	Stojakovic REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	76 81.5%	66 18.5%
Q4 - 10:18	SAS	MISS Horry 3PT Jump Shot	76 80.4%	66 19.6%
Q4 - 10:34	NOH	West 19' Jump Shot (26 PTS) (Paul 9 AST)	76 77.6%	66 22.4%
Q4 - 10:43	SAS	Ginobili Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T8)	74 73.8%	66 26.2%
Q4 - 10:55	NOH	Paul 20' Jump Shot (11 PTS)	74 68.8%	66 31.2%
Q4 - 11:11	NOH	Chandler REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6)	72 62.5%	66 37.5%
Q4 - 11:12	SAS	MISS Horry 25' 3PT Jump Shot	72 60.8%	66 39.2%
Q4 - 11:19	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	72 57.1%	66 42.9%
Q4 - 11:22	NOH	MISS Stojakovic 21' Jump Shot	72 58.7%	66 41.3%
Q4 - 11:40	SAS	Udoka 13' Pullup Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Vaughn 1 AST)	72 62.6%	66 37.4%
Q3 - 0:00.0	SAS		72 67.3%	64 32.7%
Q3 - 0:00.0	SAS	SPURS Rebound	72 67.3%	64 32.7%
Q3 - 0:00.0	SAS	MISS Ginobili 65' 3PT Hook Bank Shot	72 70.7%	64 29.3%
Q3 - 0:00.0	NOH	Pargo 24' 3PT Running Bank Shot (5 PTS)	72 67.3%	64 32.7%
Q3 - 0:05.0	NOH	Hornets Rebound	69 55.1%	64 44.9%
Q3 - 0:05.0	SAS	MISS Vaughn 11' Running Hook Shot	69 53.5%	64 46.5%
Q3 - 0:31.0	NOH	Paul 10' Turnaround Jump Shot (9 PTS)	69 50.1%	64 49.9%
Q3 - 0:40.0	SAS	Udoka 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Ginobili 2 AST)	67 45.0%	64 55.0%
Q3 - 1:02	NOH	West Free Throw 2 of 2 (24 PTS)	67 53.0%	61 47.0%
Q3 - 1:02	NOH	West Free Throw 1 of 2 (23 PTS)	66 52.3%	61 47.7%
Q3 - 1:10	SAS	Horry Putback Slam Dunk (2 PTS)	65 48.3%	61 51.7%
Q3 - 1:22	SAS	Horry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	65 53.1%	59 46.9%
Q3 - 1:25	SAS	MISS Duncan 9' Jump Bank Shot	65 56.6%	59 43.4%
Q3 - 1:40	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	65 53.2%	59 46.8%
Q3 - 1:42	NOH	MISS Pargo 3PT Jump Shot	65 54.7%	59 45.3%
Q3 - 1:55	NOH	West REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)	65 58.2%	59 41.8%
Q3 - 1:56	SAS	MISS Duncan 18' Jump Shot	65 56.7%	59 43.3%
Q3 - 2:14	NOH	West 14' Step Back Jump Shot (22 PTS)	65 50.9%	59 49.1%
Q3 - 2:36	SAS	Vaughn Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T7)	63 46.7%	59 53.3%
Q3 - 2:41	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	63 41.7%	59 58.3%
Q3 - 2:42	NOH	MISS Paul 6' Jump Shot	63 43.2%	59 56.8%
Q3 - 2:55	NOH	West REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	63 46.8%	59 53.2%
Q3 - 2:56	SAS	MISS Bowen 24' 3PT Jump Shot	63 45.2%	59 54.8%
Q3 - 3:12	NOH	Parker STEAL (1 STL)	63 41.2%	59 58.8%
Q3 - 3:36	NOH	West REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	63 45.8%	59 54.2%
Q3 - 3:36	SAS	MISS Duncan Layup	63 44.4%	59 55.6%
Q3 - 3:37	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	63 41.2%	59 58.8%
Q3 - 3:40	SAS	MISS Parker 24' 3PT Jump Bank Shot	63 44.4%	59 55.6%
Q3 - 3:59	NOH	Stojakovic 25' 3PT Jump Shot (19 PTS) (Peterson 2 AST)	63 41.2%	59 58.8%
Q3 - 4:26	NOH	West REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	60 32.4%	59 67.6%
Q3 - 4:27	SAS	MISS Parker 20' Jump Shot	60 31.0%	59 69.0%
Q3 - 4:42	NOH	West 16' Jump Shot (20 PTS) (Paul 8 AST)	60 28.2%	59 71.8%
Q3 - 5:03	NOH	Chandler REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)	58 25.1%	59 74.9%
Q3 - 5:05	SAS	MISS Ginobili 21' Jump Shot	58 24.1%	59 75.9%
Q3 - 5:16	SAS	Bowen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	58 21.9%	59 78.1%
Q3 - 5:19	NOH	MISS Paul 17' Fadeaway Jumper	58 22.8%	59 77.2%
Q3 - 5:50	SAS	Ginobili 8' Running Jump Shot (11 PTS)	58 25.1%	59 74.9%
Q3 - 6:02	NOH	Paul Foul Turnover (P3.T11)	58 27.6%	57 72.4%
Q3 - 6:05	SAS	Parker 16' Jump Shot (15 PTS)	58 31.1%	57 68.9%
Q3 - 6:29	NOH	Chandler 1' Alley Oop Dunk (6 PTS) (Paul 7 AST)	58 34.5%	55 65.5%
Q3 - 6:42	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 1 (17 PTS)	56 31.2%	55 68.8%
Q3 - 6:53	NOH	Stojakovic 18' Floating Jump Shot (16 PTS)	56 38.2%	52 61.8%
Q3 - 7:12	SAS	Ginobili Reverse Layup (9 PTS)	54 34.2%	52 65.8%
Q3 - 7:35	NOH	West 17' Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Paul 6 AST)	54 37.3%	50 62.7%
Q3 - 7:39	NOH	Hornets Rebound	52 34.2%	50 65.8%
Q3 - 7:39	NOH	Duncan BLOCK (1 BLK)	52 31.5%	50 68.5%
Q3 - 7:55	SAS	Duncan 1' Layup (14 PTS) (Parker 6 AST)	52 34.2%	50 65.8%
Q3 - 8:05	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	52 36.8%	48 63.2%
Q3 - 8:06	NOH	MISS Stojakovic 25' 3PT Jump Shot	52 38.0%	48 62.0%
Q3 - 8:33	SAS	Parker 20' Step Back Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Bowen 1 AST)	52 40.9%	48 59.1%
Q3 - 8:46	NOH	Paul Foul Turnover (P2.T10)	52 44.1%	46 55.9%
Q3 - 8:53	SAS	Parker Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)	52 48.4%	46 51.6%
Q3 - 8:53	SAS	MISS Parker Free Throw 1 of 2	52 49.2%	45 50.8%
Q3 - 9:16	NOH	Stojakovic 24' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Peterson 1 AST)	52 46.4%	45 53.6%
Q3 - 9:41	SAS	Parker 1' Running Layup (10 PTS)	49 39.4%	45 60.6%
Q3 - 10:02	NOH	Stojakovic 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Paul 5 AST)	49 41.3%	43 58.7%
Q3 - 10:11	NOH	Stojakovic REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	46 35.1%	43 64.9%
Q3 - 10:12	SAS	MISS Bowen 14' Jump Shot	46 34.0%	43 66.0%
Q3 - 10:24	NOH	Bowen STEAL (1 STL)	46 31.6%	43 68.4%
Q3 - 10:43	NOH	Stojakovic REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	46 35.1%	43 64.9%
Q3 - 10:45	SAS	MISS Duncan 17' Jump Bank Shot	46 34.0%	43 66.0%
Q3 - 11:05	NOH	West 1' Slam Dunk (16 PTS)	46 30.9%	43 69.1%
Q3 - 11:20	NOH	Stojakovic REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	44 28.2%	43 71.8%
Q3 - 11:21	SAS	MISS Bowen 3PT Jump Shot	44 27.3%	43 72.7%
Q3 - 11:39	NOH	West Layup (14 PTS) (Paul 4 AST)	44 25.3%	43 74.7%
Q2 - 0:00.0	NOH		42 23.0%	43 77.0%
Q2 - 0:00.0	NOH	Paul REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	42 23.0%	43 77.0%
Q2 - 0:01.0	SAS	MISS Parker 1' Layup	42 22.0%	43 78.0%
Q2 - 0:19.0	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	42 20.9%	43 79.1%
Q2 - 0:20.0	NOH	MISS Paul 25' 3PT Jump Shot	42 21.4%	43 78.6%
Q2 - 0:36.0	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)	42 22.5%	43 77.5%
Q2 - 0:36.0	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)	42 23.3%	42 76.7%
Q2 - 0:39.0	SAS	SPURS Rebound	42 25.7%	41 74.3%
Q2 - 0:39.0	SAS	MISS Ginobili Layup	42 26.9%	41 73.1%
Q2 - 0:51.0	NOH	Paul Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)	42 25.6%	41 74.4%
Q2 - 0:51.0	NOH	MISS Paul Free Throw 1 of 2	41 25.3%	41 74.7%
Q2 - 0:54.0	NOH	Peterson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	41 24.9%	41 75.1%
Q2 - 0:55.0	SAS	MISS Finley 25' 3PT Jump Shot	41 24.4%	41 75.6%
Q2 - 1:06	NOH	Duncan STEAL (1 STL)	41 23.5%	41 76.5%
Q2 - 1:13	NOH	Hornets Rebound	41 24.7%	41 75.3%
Q2 - 1:13	NOH	MISS Peterson 24' 3PT Jump Shot	41 23.8%	41 76.2%
Q2 - 1:26	NOH	Chandler REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)	41 24.7%	41 75.3%
Q2 - 1:27	SAS	MISS Ginobili 14' Jump Shot	41 24.3%	41 75.7%
Q2 - 1:38	SAS	Udoka REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	41 23.5%	41 76.5%
Q2 - 1:40	NOH	Ginobili BLOCK (1 BLK)	41 23.8%	41 76.2%
Q2 - 1:56	SAS	Ginobili 1' Driving Layup (7 PTS)	41 24.7%	41 75.3%
Q2 - 2:15	NOH	Peterson 25' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Paul 3 AST)	41 27.6%	39 72.4%
Q2 - 2:21	NOH	Bowen REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	38 22.7%	39 77.3%
Q2 - 2:22	SAS	MISS Parker 1' Layup	38 22.1%	39 77.9%
Q2 - 2:41	NOH	West 9' Jump Shot (12 PTS)	38 20.8%	39 79.2%
Q2 - 2:55	SAS	Finley 18' Step Back Jump Shot (4 PTS)	36 18.6%	39 81.4%
Q2 - 3:22	NOH	Paul 19' Jump Shot (6 PTS)	36 20.4%	37 79.6%
Q2 - 3:51	SAS	Oberto 16' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Parker 5 AST)	34 18.7%	37 81.3%
Q2 - 4:19	NOH	Peterson 18' Jump Bank Shot (4 PTS)	34 20.3%	35 79.7%
Q2 - 4:45	NOH	Chandler REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)	32 18.5%	35 81.5%
Q2 - 4:46	SAS	MISS Parker 18' Jump Shot	32 17.9%	35 82.1%
Q2 - 5:00	NOH	Chandler Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T7)	32 16.8%	35 83.2%
Q2 - 5:21	NOH	Hornets Rebound	32 18.4%	35 81.6%
Q2 - 5:21	SAS	MISS Finley 24' 3PT Jump Shot	32 17.9%	35 82.1%
Q2 - 5:28	SAS	Oberto REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	32 16.7%	35 83.3%
Q2 - 5:30	NOH	MISS Butler 24' 3PT Jump Shot	32 17.2%	35 82.8%
Q2 - 5:43	SAS	Finley 13' Fadeaway Jumper (2 PTS)	32 18.4%	35 81.6%
Q2 - 5:59	NOH	Bowen Putback Slam Dunk (2 PTS)	32 20.1%	33 79.9%
Q2 - 6:00	NOH	Bowen REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	30 18.4%	33 81.6%
Q2 - 6:03	NOH	Horry BLOCK (2 BLK)	30 17.2%	33 82.8%
Q2 - 6:07	NOH	Chandler REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)	30 18.5%	33 81.5%
Q2 - 6:08	SAS	MISS Bowen 9' Jump Shot	30 17.9%	33 82.1%
Q2 - 6:28	NOH	Pargo Palming Turnover (P1.T6)	30 16.6%	33 83.4%
Q2 - 6:40	NOH	Chandler REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)	30 18.5%	33 81.5%
Q2 - 6:41	NOH	MISS Pargo 24' 3PT Jump Shot	30 17.2%	33 82.8%
Q2 - 6:45	NOH	Chandler REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	30 18.5%	33 81.5%
Q2 - 6:46	NOH	MISS Ely 18' Jump Shot	30 17.2%	33 82.8%
Q2 - 6:57	NOH	Bowen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	30 18.5%	33 81.5%
Q2 - 6:58	NOH	MISS Pargo 20' Jump Shot	30 17.2%	33 82.8%
Q2 - 7:16	SAS	Oberto 6' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Parker 4 AST)	30 18.5%	33 81.5%
Q2 - 7:32	SAS	Oberto REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	30 20.1%	31 79.9%
Q2 - 7:34	NOH	MISS Chandler 7' Jump Bank Shot	30 20.6%	31 79.4%
Q2 - 7:50	NOH	Ely REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	30 21.9%	31 78.1%
Q2 - 7:52	SAS	MISS Ginobili 24' 3PT Jump Shot	30 21.3%	31 78.7%
Q2 - 7:59	NOH	Udoka STEAL (1 STL)	30 20.0%	31 80.0%
Q2 - 8:07	SAS	Oberto Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T6)	30 21.9%	31 78.1%
Q2 - 8:23	SAS	Udoka REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	30 19.9%	31 80.1%
Q2 - 8:25	SAS	MISS Udoka 1' Tip Shot	30 21.3%	31 78.7%
Q2 - 8:29	SAS	Udoka REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	30 19.9%	31 80.1%
Q2 - 8:30	SAS	MISS Horry 3' Layup	30 21.3%	31 78.7%
Q2 - 8:33	SAS	Oberto REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	30 19.9%	31 80.1%
Q2 - 8:37	NOH	MISS Chandler 1' Alley Oop Layup	30 20.5%	31 79.5%
Q2 - 8:47	SAS	Udoka Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T5)	30 21.9%	31 78.1%
Q2 - 9:02	NOH	Chandler 3 Second Violation Turnover (P1.T4)	30 19.8%	31 80.2%
Q2 - 9:20	NOH	Chandler REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	30 21.6%	31 78.4%
Q2 - 9:21	SAS	MISS Horry 1' Layup	30 21.1%	31 78.9%
Q2 - 9:51	NOH	Pargo 15' Fadeaway Jumper (2 PTS)	30 19.8%	31 80.2%
Q2 - 10:06	SAS	Udoka 16' Pullup Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Horry 1 AST)	28 18.6%	31 81.4%
Q2 - 10:22	SAS	Vaughn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	28 19.9%	29 80.1%
Q2 - 10:24	NOH	Horry BLOCK (1 BLK)	28 20.4%	29 79.6%
Q2 - 10:43	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	28 21.7%	29 78.3%
Q2 - 10:43	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)	28 22.0%	28 78.0%
Q2 - 10:56	NOH	Hornets Turnover: Shot Clock (T#3)	28 23.2%	27 76.8%
Q2 - 10:56	NOH	Hornets Rebound	28 25.3%	27 74.7%
Q2 - 10:56	NOH	MISS Butler 24' 3PT Jump Bank Shot	28 23.9%	27 76.1%
Q2 - 11:20	NOH	Ely REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	28 24.7%	27 75.3%
Q2 - 11:21	SAS	MISS Udoka 24' 3PT Jump Shot	28 24.1%	27 75.9%
Q2 - 11:34	NOH	Hornets Turnover: Shot Clock (T#2)	28 22.9%	27 77.1%
Q2 - 11:35	NOH	Hornets Rebound	28 24.7%	27 75.3%
Q2 - 11:36	NOH	MISS Pargo 26' 3PT Jump Shot	28 23.5%	27 76.5%
Q1 - 0:00.0	SAS		28 24.7%	27 75.3%
Q1 - 0:00.0	SAS	SPURS Rebound	28 23.0%	27 77.0%
Q1 - 0:00.0	SAS	MISS Udoka 52' 3PT Jump Shot	28 24.2%	27 75.8%
Q1 - 0:00.0	SAS	Udoka REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	28 23.0%	27 77.0%
Q1 - 0:02.0	NOH	MISS West 8' Turnaround Jump Shot	28 23.3%	27 76.7%
Q1 - 0:27.0	NOH	Armstrong REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	28 24.3%	27 75.7%
Q1 - 0:28.0	SAS	MISS Vaughn 1' Layup	28 23.8%	27 76.2%
Q1 - 0:38.0	SAS	Vaughn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	28 22.9%	27 77.1%
Q1 - 0:39.0	NOH	MISS Butler 25' 3PT Jump Shot	28 23.3%	27 76.7%
Q1 - 0:58.0	NOH	West REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	28 24.3%	27 75.7%
Q1 - 0:59.0	SAS	MISS Ginobili 19' Jump Shot	28 23.8%	27 76.2%
Q1 - 1:21	NOH	West 14' Jump Bank Shot (10 PTS)	28 22.9%	27 77.1%
Q1 - 1:34	NOH	Stojakovic REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	26 20.9%	27 79.1%
Q1 - 1:35	SAS	MISS Ginobili 20' Jump Shot	26 20.6%	27 79.4%
Q1 - 1:56	NOH	Stojakovic 1' Layup (8 PTS)	26 19.8%	27 80.2%
Q1 - 2:00	SAS	Ginobili Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T4)	24 18.0%	27 82.0%
Q1 - 2:06	NOH	Armstrong Step Out of Bounds Turnover (P1.T1)	24 16.8%	27 83.2%
Q1 - 2:06	NOH	Armstrong REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	24 18.1%	27 81.9%
Q1 - 2:07	SAS	MISS Ginobili 25' 3PT Jump Shot	24 17.7%	27 82.3%
Q1 - 2:20	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	24 16.8%	27 83.2%
Q1 - 2:23	NOH	MISS Armstrong 6' Jump Shot	24 17.2%	27 82.8%
Q1 - 2:41	SAS	Ginobili 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Duncan 1 AST)	24 18.1%	27 81.9%
Q1 - 2:55	SAS	SPURS Rebound	24 21.2%	24 78.8%
Q1 - 2:56	NOH	MISS Stojakovic 17' Jump Shot	24 21.6%	24 78.4%
Q1 - 3:12	SAS	Parker 1' Driving Layup (8 PTS)	24 22.5%	24 77.5%
Q1 - 3:28	NOH	Paul Driving Layup (4 PTS)	24 24.0%	22 76.0%
Q1 - 3:36	NOH	Paul REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	22 22.5%	22 77.5%
Q1 - 3:37	SAS	MISS Bowen 3PT Jump Shot	22 22.0%	22 78.0%
Q1 - 3:45	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	22 20.8%	22 79.2%
Q1 - 3:46	NOH	MISS Paul 2' Layup	22 21.3%	22 78.7%
Q1 - 3:58	SAS	Parker 1' Layup (6 PTS)	22 22.5%	22 77.5%
Q1 - 4:01	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	22 23.4%	20 76.6%
Q1 - 4:04	NOH	MISS Stojakovic 24' 3PT Jump Bank Shot	22 24.0%	20 76.0%
Q1 - 4:28	SAS	Duncan 9' Jump Bank Shot (10 PTS) (Ginobili 1 AST)	22 25.5%	20 74.5%
Q1 - 4:52	NOH	Stojakovic 19' Jump Shot (6 PTS)	22 26.8%	18 73.2%
Q1 - 5:05	NOH	Hornets Rebound	20 24.7%	18 75.3%
Q1 - 5:05	NOH	MISS West 9' Jump Shot	20 23.5%	18 76.5%
Q1 - 5:15	NOH	Armstrong REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	20 24.7%	18 75.3%
Q1 - 5:16	SAS	MISS Parker 1' Layup	20 24.2%	18 75.8%
Q1 - 5:20	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	20 23.0%	18 77.0%
Q1 - 5:21	NOH	MISS Stojakovic 1' Layup	20 23.5%	18 76.5%
Q1 - 5:25	NOH	Paul REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	20 24.7%	18 75.3%
Q1 - 5:28	NOH	MISS Paul 10' Pullup Jump Shot	20 23.5%	18 76.5%
Q1 - 5:36	SAS	Parker 2' Driving Layup (4 PTS)	20 24.7%	18 75.3%
Q1 - 5:51	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	20 26.2%	16 73.8%
Q1 - 5:53	NOH	MISS West 9' Jump Bank Shot	20 26.7%	16 73.3%
Q1 - 6:12	SAS	Oberto 5' Alley Oop Layup (6 PTS) (Parker 3 AST)	20 27.4%	16 72.6%
Q1 - 6:23	NOH	West 16' Step Back Jump Shot (8 PTS)	20 29.0%	14 71.0%
Q1 - 6:39	SAS	Parker Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T3)	18 27.4%	14 72.6%
Q1 - 6:52	NOH	Paul 9' Floating Jump Shot (2 PTS)	18 25.8%	14 74.2%
Q1 - 7:02	SAS	Parker 6' Turnaround Jump Shot (2 PTS)	16 23.8%	14 76.2%
Q1 - 7:15	NOH	Stojakovic 19' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	16 25.1%	12 74.9%
Q1 - 7:33	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)	14 23.8%	12 76.2%
Q1 - 7:33	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)	14 24.2%	11 75.8%
Q1 - 7:48	NOH	West 20' Jump Shot (6 PTS)	14 25.1%	10 74.9%
Q1 - 8:01	NOH	West REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	12 23.6%	10 76.4%
Q1 - 8:03	SAS	MISS Parker 18' Jump Shot	12 23.2%	10 76.8%
Q1 - 8:23	NOH	West 18' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Paul 2 AST)	12 22.1%	10 77.9%
Q1 - 8:41	SAS	Duncan Dunk (6 PTS) (Parker 2 AST)	10 21.0%	10 79.0%
Q1 - 8:58	NOH	West 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Paul 1 AST)	10 22.1%	8 77.9%
Q1 - 9:11	SAS	Duncan Layup (4 PTS) (Parker 1 AST)	8 20.9%	8 79.1%
Q1 - 9:28	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	8 21.9%	6 78.1%
Q1 - 9:30	NOH	MISS West 9' Jump Bank Shot	8 22.4%	6 77.6%
Q1 - 9:45	SAS	Oberto 12' Jump Bank Shot (4 PTS) (Finley 1 AST)	8 23.6%	6 76.4%
Q1 - 9:57	NOH	Peterson Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	8 24.6%	4 75.4%
Q1 - 9:57	NOH	Peterson Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	7 24.3%	4 75.7%
Q1 - 10:01	SAS	Oberto Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T2)	6 23.3%	4 76.7%
Q1 - 10:08	SAS	Oberto REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	6 21.8%	4 78.2%
Q1 - 10:08	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2	6 23.1%	4 76.9%
Q1 - 10:08	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2	6 22.4%	4 77.6%
Q1 - 10:15	NOH	Stojakovic 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (West 1 AST)	6 21.8%	4 78.2%
Q1 - 10:29	SAS	Oberto Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	4 20.7%	4 79.3%
Q1 - 10:29	SAS	Oberto Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	4 21.2%	3 78.8%
Q1 - 10:44	NOH	Chandler 8' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	4 21.8%	2 78.2%
Q1 - 11:05	SAS	Duncan 6' Driving Jump Shot (2 PTS)	2 20.5%	2 79.5%
Q1 - 11:30	NOH	Chandler 1' Putback Dunk (2 PTS)	2 21.8%	0 78.2%
Q1 - 11:30	NOH	Chandler REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	0 20.5%	0 79.5%
Q1 - 11:30	NOH	MISS Peterson 1' Jump Shot	0 19.8%	0 80.2%
Q1 - 11:44	SAS	Duncan Foul Turnover (P1.T1)	0 20.5%	0 79.5%
Q1 - 12:00	SAS	Jump Ball Duncan vs. Chandler: Tip to Parker	0 19.4%	0 80.6%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

NOH

1.13 56.7%

SAS

0.90 44.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

NOH

58%

SAS

59%

Midrange

NOH

62%

SAS

49%

3PT | Effective 3PT

NOH

10.5

35%

53%

SAS

3.0

10%

15%

Free Throws

NOH

78%

SAS

77%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Hornets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. West	32	80%	16.0 / 20
P. Stojakovic	22	79%	11.0 / 14
C. Paul	17	50%	8.5 / 17
T. Chandler	8	57%	4.0 / 7
J. Pargo	8	44%	4.0 / 9
M. Peterson	7	70%	3.5 / 5
R. Bowen	4	100%	2.0 / 2
H. Armstrong	2	50%	1.0 / 2
M. Ely	2	25%	1.0 / 4
R. Butler	0	-	0.0 / 4
J. Wright	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Duncan	17	57%	8.5 / 15
T. Parker	17	50%	8.5 / 17
I. Udoka	13	65%	6.5 / 10
M. Ginobili	11	42%	5.5 / 13
F. Oberto	10	100%	5.0 / 5
M. Finley	4	33%	2.0 / 6
R. Horry	2	20%	1.0 / 5
J. Richardson	2	33%	1.0 / 3
F. Elson	2	50%	1.0 / 2
B. Bowen	0	-	0.0 / 5
J. Vaughn	0	-	0.0 / 3
M. Bonner	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

NOH

+13

-10

SAS

+11

-11

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

NOH

1.13 56.7%

SAS

0.90 44.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	110.8 106.5	NOH 117.2 SAS 90.7 +26.5
Pace	90.5 89.5	NOH 85.2 SAS 87.9 +2.7
Avg. Poss. Time	15.9 16.5	NOH 16.9 SAS 16.4 +0.5
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	51.2% 50.4%	NOH 58.6% +15.6% SAS 43.0%
TO %	12.4% 13.4%	NOH 13.3% SAS 11.5% +1.8%
ORB %	27.1% 23.4%	NOH 22.6% +3.6% SAS 19.0%
FTrt	25.1 27.6	NOH 11.1 SAS 16.5 +5.4
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	56.4% 58.5%	NOH 38.6% SAS 51.5% +12.9%
STL %	8.6% 7.1%	NOH 4.6% SAS 4.7% +0.1%
BLK %	6.4% 6.5%	NOH 5.1% SAS 6.6% +1.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.02 and 2.02.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	53.3% 52.8%	NOH 56.7% +11.9% SAS 44.8%
Rim FG%	58.2% 60.6%	NOH 57.9% SAS 59.1% +1.2%
Mid FG%	43.1% 40.4%	NOH 61.9% +13.3% SAS 48.6%
3P %	38.9% 36.9%	NOH 35.0% +25.0% SAS 10.0%
FT %	76.9% 76.1%	NOH 77.8% +0.9% SAS 76.9%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	29.6% 30.8%	NOH 23.5% SAS 27.8% +4.4%
Mid Att. %	46.5% 44.1%	NOH 51.9% SAS 46.8% +5.0%
3P Att. %	23.9% 25.1%	NOH 24.7% SAS 25.3% +0.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	NOH	SAS
Possessions	87	86
Possession Minutes	24.5	23.5
Points	102	78
Rebounds	41	32
Assists	17	17
Steals	4	4
Blocks	3	4
Turnovers (Team)	10 (3)	11 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	7 (6)	8 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	34 (2)	24 (1)
Field Goals	44-81	33-79
At-the-Rim FG	11-19	13-22
Midrange FG	26-42	18-37
2-Point FG	37-61	31-59
3-Point FG	7-20	2-20
Free Throws	7-9	10-13
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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7 New Orleans Hornets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
David West F · 6'9" 250 · 27	39.3	32	80%	7	1	0	1	1	2	0	7	2-3	67%	15-19	79%	0-0	-
Chris Paul G · 6'0" 175 · 23	38.2	17	50%	4	11	1	0	4	3	1	3	1-2	50%	8-13	62%	0-3	0%
Tyson Chandler C · 7'1" 240 · 25	32.8	8	57%	12	0	0	1	2	3	3	9	0-0	-	4-7	57%	0-0	-
Peja Stojakovic F · 6'10" 229 · 31	31.5	22	79%	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	0-0	-	5-8	63%	4-6	67%
Morris Peterson G · 6'7" 220 · 30	22.8	7	70%	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Jannero Pargo G · 6'1" 185 · 28	22.3	8	44%	1	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	2-6	33%
Hilton Armstrong F-C · 6'11" 235 · 23	15.2	2	50%	4	0	1	1	1	2	1	3	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Ryan Bowen F · 6'9" 218 · 32	13.3	4	100%	3	0	2	0	0	0	2	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Rasual Butler F · 6'7" 215 · 29	12.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-3	0%
Melvin Ely C-F · 6'10" 260 · 30	8.7	2	25%	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Julian Wright F · 6'8" 225 · 21	3.1	0	0%	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Marcus Vinicius F · 6'8" 225 · 24
Bobby Jackson #8 · G · 6'1" 185 · 35	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	102	57%	41	17	4	3	10	0	7	34	7-9	78%	37-61	61%	7-20	35%

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7 New Orleans Hornets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
David West F · 6'9" 250 · 27	39.3	32	80%	7	1	0	1	1	2	0	7	2-3	67%	15-19	79%	0-0	-
Chris Paul G · 6'0" 175 · 23	38.2	17	50%	4	11	1	0	4	3	1	3	1-2	50%	8-13	62%	0-3	0%
Tyson Chandler C · 7'1" 240 · 25	32.8	8	57%	12	0	0	1	2	3	3	9	0-0	-	4-7	57%	0-0	-
Peja Stojakovic F · 6'10" 229 · 31	31.5	22	79%	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	0-0	-	5-8	63%	4-6	67%
Morris Peterson G · 6'7" 220 · 30	22.8	7	70%	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Jannero Pargo G · 6'1" 185 · 28	22.3	8	44%	1	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	2-6	33%
Hilton Armstrong F-C · 6'11" 235 · 23	15.2	2	50%	4	0	1	1	1	2	1	3	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Ryan Bowen F · 6'9" 218 · 32	13.3	4	100%	3	0	2	0	0	0	2	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Rasual Butler F · 6'7" 215 · 29	12.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-3	0%
Melvin Ely C-F · 6'10" 260 · 30	8.7	2	25%	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Julian Wright F · 6'8" 225 · 21	3.1	0	0%	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Marcus Vinicius F · 6'8" 225 · 24
Bobby Jackson #8 · G · 6'1" 185 · 35	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	102	57%	41	17	4	3	10	0	7	34	7-9	78%	37-61	61%	7-20	35%

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3 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tim Duncan F · 6'11" 250 · 32	33.6	17	57%	8	1	1	1	1	1	1	7	5-7	71%	6-12	50%	0-0	-
Tony Parker G · 6'2" 185 · 26	30.6	17	50%	2	6	1	0	1	1	0	2	1-2	50%	8-15	53%	0-1	0%
Fabricio Oberto C · 6'10" 245 · 33	28.4	10	100%	4	0	0	0	2	2	1	3	2-2	100%	4-4	100%	0-0	-
Bruce Bowen F · 6'7" 200 · 37	23.9	0	0%	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-3	0%
Michael Finley G · 6'7" 225 · 35	21.1	4	33%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-3	0%
Manu Ginobili G · 6'6" 205 · 30	26.9	11	42%	3	2	0	1	3	1	1	2	2-2	100%	3-8	38%	1-4	25%
Ime Udoka G-F · 6'5" 220 · 30	24.1	13	65%	7	1	1	0	2	3	3	4	0-0	-	5-6	83%	1-4	25%
Jacque Vaughn G · 6'1" 190 · 33	17.4	0	0%	3	3	0	0	2	3	0	3	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Robert Horry F-C · 6'10" 240 · 37	17.1	2	20%	1	1	0	2	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-2	0%
Jeremy Richardson G-F · 6'7" 195 · 24	7.3	2	33%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Matt Bonner C-F · 6'10" 235 · 28	4.8	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Francisco Elson C-F · 7'0" 240 · 32	4.8	2	50%	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Ian Mahinmi #28 · C · 6'11" 262 · 21	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Brent Barry #17 · G · 6'7" 210 · 36	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	78	45%	32	17	4	4	11	0	8	24	10-13	77%	31-59	53%	2-20	10%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE