Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, January 18, 2008

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	20	Hawks	32%	91	78
	14	Raptors	68%	97	89

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
ATL	92.9	84	84.4
TOR	107.2	83	82.7

Scoring Opportunities

ATL

+13

-13

TOR

-7

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

0.93 46.4%

TOR

1.07 53.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	ATL	TOR
Q4 - 0:00.0	ATL		78 0%	89 100%
Q4 - 0:20.0	TOR	Bosh 19' Turnaround Fadeaway (35 PTS) (Calderon 9 AST)	78 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 0:44.0	ATL	Calderon STEAL (1 STL)	78 0.1%	87 99.9%
Q4 - 0:50.0	TOR	Calderon 19' Jump Shot (13 PTS)	78 0.3%	87 99.7%
Q4 - 1:09	ATL	Smith 7' Jump Hook Shot (24 PTS) (Johnson 7 AST)	78 0.7%	85 99.3%
Q4 - 1:23	TOR	Calderon Driving Layup (11 PTS)	76 0.6%	85 99.4%
Q4 - 1:42	TOR	Bosh REBOUND (Off:1 Def:8)	76 1.4%	83 98.6%
Q4 - 1:43	ATL	MISS Johnson 26' 3PT Jump Shot	76 1.7%	83 98.3%
Q4 - 1:49	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:2 Def:7)	76 2.6%	83 97.4%
Q4 - 1:50	TOR	MISS Delfino 3PT Jump Shot	76 2.3%	83 97.7%
Q4 - 2:14	ATL	Johnson 26' 3PT Jump Shot (25 PTS) (Horford 4 AST)	76 1.6%	83 98.4%
Q4 - 2:38	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6)	73 0.8%	83 99.2%
Q4 - 2:39	TOR	MISS Delfino 3PT Jump Shot	73 0.6%	83 99.4%
Q4 - 3:04	TOR	Calderon REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	73 0.6%	83 99.4%
Q4 - 3:05	ATL	MISS Smith Layup	73 0.7%	83 99.3%
Q4 - 3:08	ATL	Childress REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	73 1.1%	83 98.9%
Q4 - 3:10	TOR	MISS Parker Tip Shot	73 0.9%	83 99.1%
Q4 - 3:12	TOR	Parker REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	73 0.6%	83 99.4%
Q4 - 3:13	TOR	MISS Delfino Driving Layup	73 0.9%	83 99.1%
Q4 - 3:19	ATL	Parker STEAL (1 STL)	73 0.6%	83 99.4%
Q4 - 3:30	TOR	Bosh Free Throw 1 of 1 (33 PTS)	73 1.1%	83 98.9%
Q4 - 3:37	TOR	Parker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	73 3.6%	80 96.4%
Q4 - 3:39	ATL	Moon BLOCK (3 BLK)	73 4.0%	80 96.0%
Q4 - 4:07	TOR	Moon Running Dunk (9 PTS) (Calderon 8 AST)	73 4.9%	80 95.1%
Q4 - 4:29	TOR	Delfino REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	73 6.7%	78 93.3%
Q4 - 4:30	ATL	MISS Johnson Driving Layup	73 7.5%	78 92.5%
Q4 - 4:53	TOR	Parker 3PT Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Delfino 1 AST)	73 9.6%	78 90.4%
Q4 - 5:20	ATL	Lue 22' Jump Shot (5 PTS)	73 19.3%	75 80.7%
Q4 - 5:41	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:2 Def:7)	71 14.7%	75 85.3%
Q4 - 5:43	TOR	MISS Bosh 14' Turnaround Jump Shot	71 13.4%	75 86.6%
Q4 - 6:03	TOR	Bosh REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	71 11.8%	75 88.2%
Q4 - 6:04	ATL	MISS Smith 22' Jump Shot	71 12.9%	75 87.1%
Q4 - 6:27	TOR	Bosh Free Throw 2 of 2 (30 PTS)	71 15.8%	75 84.2%
Q4 - 6:27	TOR	Bosh Free Throw 1 of 2 (29 PTS)	71 16.5%	74 83.5%
Q4 - 6:41	ATL	Johnson 25' 3PT Jump Shot (22 PTS) (Lue 3 AST)	71 19.6%	73 80.4%
Q4 - 6:58	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	68 12.1%	73 87.9%
Q4 - 7:00	TOR	MISS Moon 7' Hook Shot	68 11.0%	73 89.0%
Q4 - 7:17	TOR	Parker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	68 10.1%	73 89.9%
Q4 - 7:18	ATL	MISS Lue 26' 3PT Jump Shot	68 11.0%	73 89.0%
Q4 - 7:39	TOR	Bosh Free Throw 2 of 2 (28 PTS)	68 13.3%	73 86.7%
Q4 - 7:39	TOR	Bosh Free Throw 1 of 2 (27 PTS)	68 13.8%	72 86.2%
Q4 - 7:55	ATL	Moon STEAL (5 STL)	68 16.3%	71 83.7%
Q4 - 8:00	TOR	Jump Ball Delfino vs. Lue: Tip to Johnson	68 21.1%	71 78.9%
Q4 - 8:20	ATL	Johnson 18' Running Jump Shot (19 PTS) (Lue 2 AST)	68 17.5%	71 82.5%
Q4 - 8:26	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	66 14.2%	71 85.8%
Q4 - 8:28	ATL	MISS Smith Driving Layup	66 12.1%	71 87.9%
Q4 - 8:37	TOR	Bosh Free Throw 2 of 2 (26 PTS)	66 14.2%	71 85.8%
Q4 - 8:37	TOR	Bosh Free Throw 1 of 2 (25 PTS)	66 14.7%	70 85.3%
Q4 - 9:01	ATL	Lue 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Smith 7 AST)	66 18.0%	69 82.0%
Q4 - 9:31	TOR	Bosh 11' Turnaround Hook Shot (24 PTS) (Parker 2 AST)	63 12.0%	69 88.0%
Q4 - 9:48	TOR	Bosh REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	63 14.7%	67 85.3%
Q4 - 9:49	ATL	MISS Lue 25' 3PT Jump Shot	63 15.7%	67 84.3%
Q4 - 10:04	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	63 18.8%	67 81.2%
Q4 - 10:05	TOR	MISS Dixon 20' Jump Shot	63 17.7%	67 82.3%
Q4 - 10:18	ATL	Bosh STEAL (1 STL)	63 15.3%	67 84.7%
Q4 - 10:35	TOR	RAPTORS Turnover: Shot Clock (T#10)	63 18.7%	67 81.3%
Q4 - 10:35	TOR	RAPTORS Rebound	63 15.3%	67 84.7%
Q4 - 10:35	TOR	MISS Delfino Driving Layup	63 17.6%	67 82.4%
Q4 - 11:02	ATL	Johnson 25' 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS)	63 16.0%	67 84.0%
Q4 - 11:27	ATL	Lue REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	60 11.1%	67 88.9%
Q4 - 11:29	ATL	Bosh BLOCK (1 BLK)	60 9.6%	67 90.4%
Q4 - 11:35	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)	60 11.1%	67 88.9%
Q4 - 11:35	TOR	MISS Parker 22' Jump Shot	60 10.4%	67 89.6%
Q3 - 0:00.0	ATL		60 9.0%	67 91.0%
Q3 - 0:00.0	ATL	Hawks Rebound	60 11.1%	67 88.9%
Q3 - 0:00.0	ATL	MISS Johnson 33' 3PT Running Jump Shot	60 9.6%	67 90.4%
Q3 - 0:03.0	TOR	Parker 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Calderon 7 AST)	60 11.7%	67 88.3%
Q3 - 0:23.0	TOR	RAPTORS Rebound	60 16.6%	64 83.4%
Q3 - 0:23.0	ATL	MISS Williams 22' Jump Shot	60 17.5%	64 82.5%
Q3 - 0:44.0	TOR	Parker 25' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Calderon 6 AST)	60 19.6%	64 80.4%
Q3 - 0:49.0	TOR	Calderon REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	60 26.9%	61 73.1%
Q3 - 0:51.0	ATL	Moon BLOCK (2 BLK)	60 28.2%	61 71.8%
Q3 - 1:19	TOR	Moon Running Layup (7 PTS) (Bosh 3 AST)	60 31.0%	61 69.0%
Q3 - 1:39	ATL	Williams 17' Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Johnson 6 AST)	60 35.2%	59 64.8%
Q3 - 1:45	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	58 31.0%	59 69.0%
Q3 - 1:47	TOR	MISS Graham 8' Turnaround Jump Shot	58 29.7%	59 70.3%
Q3 - 2:04	ATL	Childress Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T9)	58 26.4%	59 73.6%
Q3 - 2:24	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	58 30.6%	59 69.4%
Q3 - 2:25	TOR	MISS Moon 24' 3PT Jump Shot	58 29.3%	59 70.7%
Q3 - 2:44	ATL	Williams 21' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Lue 1 AST)	58 26.5%	59 73.5%
Q3 - 2:59	TOR	Graham Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T9)	56 23.3%	59 76.7%
Q3 - 3:11	TOR	Moon REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	56 20.3%	59 79.7%
Q3 - 3:11	ATL	MISS Williams 18' Jump Shot	56 21.3%	59 78.7%
Q3 - 3:31	TOR	Calderon 25' 3PT Jump Bank Shot (9 PTS) (Bosh 2 AST)	56 23.5%	59 76.5%
Q3 - 3:38	TOR	RAPTORS Rebound	56 30.4%	56 69.6%
Q3 - 3:40	TOR	MISS Parker 19' Jump Shot	56 33.3%	56 66.7%
Q3 - 3:56	ATL	Smith Traveling Turnover (P4.T8)	56 30.4%	56 69.6%
Q3 - 4:01	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	56 34.1%	56 65.9%
Q3 - 4:03	TOR	MISS Bosh Driving Layup	56 32.7%	56 67.3%
Q3 - 4:17	TOR	RAPTORS Rebound	56 29.8%	56 70.2%
Q3 - 4:17	ATL	MISS Johnson 18' Fadeaway Jumper	56 31.1%	56 68.9%
Q3 - 4:41	TOR	Parker 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Moon 1 AST)	56 34.2%	56 65.8%
Q3 - 5:01	TOR	Bosh REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	56 41.3%	53 58.7%
Q3 - 5:02	ATL	MISS Horford 10' Driving Hook Shot	56 42.6%	53 57.4%
Q3 - 5:20	TOR	Moon Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	56 45.7%	53 54.3%
Q3 - 5:20	TOR	MISS Moon Free Throw 1 of 2	56 46.9%	52 53.1%
Q3 - 5:24	TOR	Calderon REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	56 45.4%	52 54.6%
Q3 - 5:25	ATL	MISS Horford 9' Jump Hook Shot	56 46.8%	52 53.2%
Q3 - 5:44	TOR	Graham Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	56 49.9%	52 50.1%
Q3 - 5:44	TOR	Graham Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	56 50.5%	51 49.5%
Q3 - 6:08	ATL	Johnson Running Layup (14 PTS) (Smith 6 AST)	56 52.4%	50 47.6%
Q3 - 6:23	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	54 48.7%	50 51.3%
Q3 - 6:24	TOR	MISS Calderon 25' 3PT Jump Shot	54 47.4%	50 52.6%
Q3 - 6:48	ATL	Smith 21' Jump Shot (22 PTS) (Johnson 5 AST)	54 44.5%	50 55.5%
Q3 - 6:58	TOR	Bosh Layup (22 PTS)	52 40.9%	50 59.1%
Q3 - 7:00	TOR	Bosh REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	52 44.5%	48 55.5%
Q3 - 7:02	TOR	MISS Calderon Layup	52 46.5%	48 53.5%
Q3 - 7:05	TOR	Calderon REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	52 43.5%	48 56.5%
Q3 - 7:06	TOR	MISS Bargnani 21' Jump Shot	52 46.5%	48 53.5%
Q3 - 7:17	TOR	Bosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	52 43.5%	48 56.5%
Q3 - 7:19	ATL	MISS Williams Driving Layup	52 44.8%	48 55.2%
Q3 - 7:45	TOR	Bosh 20' Jump Shot (20 PTS)	52 47.9%	48 52.1%
Q3 - 8:10	ATL	Johnson 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Smith 5 AST)	52 50.6%	46 49.4%
Q3 - 8:38	TOR	Bosh Driving Layup (18 PTS)	49 43.6%	46 56.4%
Q3 - 8:54	ATL	Horford Layup (8 PTS) (Smith 4 AST)	49 46.9%	44 53.1%
Q3 - 9:00	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	47 43.6%	44 56.4%
Q3 - 9:01	TOR	MISS Parker 3PT Jump Shot	47 41.1%	44 58.9%
Q3 - 9:20	ATL	Williams Dunk (9 PTS) (Smith 3 AST)	47 38.7%	44 61.3%
Q3 - 9:37	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	45 35.4%	44 64.6%
Q3 - 9:37	TOR	MISS Moon 16' Jump Shot	45 34.4%	44 65.6%
Q3 - 9:44	ATL	Moon STEAL (4 STL)	45 32.0%	44 68.0%
Q3 - 9:49	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	45 35.4%	44 64.6%
Q3 - 9:50	TOR	MISS Calderon 20' Jump Shot	45 34.4%	44 65.6%
Q3 - 10:08	ATL	Williams Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)	45 31.4%	44 68.6%
Q3 - 10:08	ATL	Williams Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)	44 30.9%	44 69.1%
Q3 - 10:08	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)	43 28.8%	44 71.2%
Q3 - 10:09	ATL	MISS Williams 8' Running Jump Shot	43 26.6%	44 73.4%
Q3 - 10:16	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	43 28.8%	44 71.2%
Q3 - 10:17	TOR	MISS Bosh 8' Jump Hook Shot	43 27.8%	44 72.2%
Q3 - 10:39	TOR	Bargnani REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	43 25.7%	44 74.3%
Q3 - 10:40	ATL	MISS Horford Free Throw 1 of 1	43 26.1%	44 73.9%
Q3 - 10:53	TOR	RAPTORS Turnover: Shot Clock (T#8)	41 23.3%	44 76.7%
Q3 - 11:20	ATL	Horford Running Layup (4 PTS) (Smith 2 AST)	41 20.6%	44 79.4%
Q3 - 11:26	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	39 18.6%	44 81.4%
Q3 - 11:27	TOR	MISS Bargnani 22' Jump Shot	39 17.9%	44 82.1%
Q3 - 11:46	ATL	Moon STEAL (3 STL)	39 16.5%	44 83.5%
Q2 - 0:00.0	TOR		39 18.6%	44 81.4%
Q2 - 0:00.0	TOR	Moon REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	39 16.5%	44 83.5%
Q2 - 0:01.0	ATL	MISS Law 13' Running Jump Shot	39 17.7%	44 82.3%
Q2 - 0:04.0	TOR	Bosh Foul Turnover (P1.T7)	39 18.6%	44 81.4%
Q2 - 0:21.0	ATL	Johnson Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)	39 17.2%	44 82.8%
Q2 - 0:21.0	ATL	MISS Johnson Free Throw 1 of 2	38 16.8%	44 83.2%
Q2 - 0:34.0	TOR	Bosh Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)	38 16.6%	44 83.4%
Q2 - 0:34.0	TOR	Bosh Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)	38 16.9%	43 83.1%
Q2 - 0:41.0	TOR	Calderon Free Throw Flagrant 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	38 19.1%	42 80.9%
Q2 - 0:41.0	TOR	Calderon Free Throw Flagrant 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	38 19.4%	41 80.6%
Q2 - 0:41.0	ATL	Johnson Foul Turnover (P1.T5)	38 23.6%	40 76.4%
Q2 - 0:56.0	TOR	Bosh Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)	38 25.4%	40 74.6%
Q2 - 0:56.0	TOR	MISS Bosh Free Throw 1 of 2	38 25.8%	39 74.2%
Q2 - 1:19	ATL	Horford Driving Dunk (2 PTS)	38 26.5%	39 73.5%
Q2 - 1:23	TOR	Humphries Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T6)	36 22.9%	39 77.1%
Q2 - 1:47	TOR	Bosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	36 21.7%	39 78.3%
Q2 - 1:48	ATL	MISS Johnson Reverse Layup	36 22.1%	39 77.9%
Q2 - 2:11	TOR	Bosh Driving Dunk (13 PTS) (Parker 1 AST)	36 23.5%	39 76.5%
Q2 - 2:29	ATL	Williams Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	36 26.0%	37 74.0%
Q2 - 2:29	ATL	MISS Williams Free Throw 1 of 2	35 25.6%	37 74.4%
Q2 - 2:31	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	35 25.8%	37 74.2%
Q2 - 2:32	TOR	MISS Humphries 14' Jump Hook Shot	35 25.1%	37 74.9%
Q2 - 2:37	TOR	Parker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	35 23.6%	37 76.4%
Q2 - 2:38	TOR	MISS Delfino 25' 3PT Jump Shot	35 25.1%	37 74.9%
Q2 - 3:00	ATL	Johnson Driving Layup (8 PTS) (Johnson 1 AST)	35 23.7%	37 76.3%
Q2 - 3:15	TOR	Humphries Layup (4 PTS) (Calderon 5 AST)	33 21.5%	37 78.5%
Q2 - 3:30	TOR	Humphries REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	33 23.4%	35 76.6%
Q2 - 3:31	ATL	MISS Johnson 25' 3PT Jump Shot	33 24.1%	35 75.9%
Q2 - 3:44	TOR	Delfino Foul Turnover (P1.T5)	33 25.9%	35 74.1%
Q2 - 4:01	TOR	Bosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	33 23.4%	35 76.6%
Q2 - 4:02	ATL	MISS Johnson Running Reverse Layup	33 24.0%	35 76.0%
Q2 - 4:26	TOR	RAPTORS Turnover: Shot Clock (T#4)	33 25.5%	35 74.5%
Q2 - 4:53	ATL	Smith 20' Jump Shot (20 PTS)	33 23.4%	35 76.6%
Q2 - 5:09	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	31 21.5%	35 78.5%
Q2 - 5:10	TOR	MISS Delfino 3PT Jump Shot	31 20.9%	35 79.1%
Q2 - 5:17	TOR	Delfino REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	31 19.5%	35 80.5%
Q2 - 5:18	ATL	MISS Horford 17' Jump Shot	31 20.1%	35 79.9%
Q2 - 5:34	TOR	Kapono 16' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Dixon 2 AST)	31 21.5%	35 78.5%
Q2 - 5:46	ATL	Williams Layup (4 PTS) (Horford 3 AST)	31 23.3%	33 76.7%
Q2 - 6:11	TOR	Dixon Driving Layup (2 PTS) (Kapono 1 AST)	29 21.7%	33 78.3%
Q2 - 6:15	ATL	Kapono STEAL (1 STL)	29 23.2%	31 76.8%
Q2 - 6:25	TOR	Dixon Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T3)	29 25.6%	31 74.4%
Q2 - 6:36	ATL	Smith Layup (18 PTS)	29 23.2%	31 76.8%
Q2 - 6:38	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	27 21.7%	31 78.3%
Q2 - 6:39	ATL	MISS Smith Driving Layup	27 20.2%	31 79.8%
Q2 - 6:53	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	27 21.7%	31 78.3%
Q2 - 6:54	TOR	MISS Humphries 8' Fadeaway Jumper	27 21.0%	31 79.0%
Q2 - 7:16	TOR	Kapono REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	27 19.9%	31 80.1%
Q2 - 7:18	ATL	MISS Childress Driving Finger Roll Layup	27 20.5%	31 79.5%
Q2 - 7:37	ATL	Childress REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	27 21.8%	31 78.2%
Q2 - 7:38	TOR	MISS Delfino 23' Jump Shot	27 21.2%	31 78.8%
Q2 - 7:51	ATL	Jones Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)	27 19.9%	31 80.1%
Q2 - 7:51	ATL	MISS Jones Free Throw 1 of 2	26 19.5%	31 80.5%
Q2 - 8:18	TOR	Humphries Driving Dunk (2 PTS)	26 20.1%	31 79.9%
Q2 - 8:36	TOR	RAPTORS Rebound	26 21.6%	29 78.4%
Q2 - 8:37	ATL	MISS Law 22' Jump Shot	26 22.2%	29 77.8%
Q2 - 8:57	ATL	Childress REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	26 23.7%	29 76.3%
Q2 - 8:57	TOR	MISS Delfino Free Throw 2 of 2	26 23.4%	29 76.6%
Q2 - 8:57	TOR	MISS Delfino Free Throw 1 of 2	26 22.2%	29 77.8%
Q2 - 8:58	TOR	Delfino REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	26 21.6%	29 78.4%
Q2 - 9:00	ATL	MISS Williams Layup	26 22.2%	29 77.8%
Q2 - 9:02	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	26 23.6%	29 76.4%
Q2 - 9:03	ATL	MISS Williams 9' Jump Shot	26 22.2%	29 77.8%
Q2 - 9:19	ATL	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	26 23.6%	29 76.4%
Q2 - 9:20	TOR	MISS Humphries 13' Jump Shot	26 23.0%	29 77.0%
Q2 - 9:29	TOR	Nesterovic REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	26 21.6%	29 78.4%
Q2 - 9:31	ATL	MISS Williams 7' Running Jump Shot	26 22.2%	29 77.8%
Q2 - 9:48	TOR	Kapono 23' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Dixon 1 AST)	26 23.6%	29 76.4%
Q2 - 10:01	ATL	Williams 22' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Law 1 AST)	26 25.3%	27 74.7%
Q2 - 10:08	ATL	Hawks Rebound	24 23.7%	27 76.3%
Q2 - 10:08	ATL	MISS Childress 21' Jump Shot	24 22.3%	27 77.7%
Q2 - 10:27	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	24 23.7%	27 76.3%
Q2 - 10:28	TOR	MISS Bosh Free Throw 2 of 2	24 23.4%	27 76.6%
Q2 - 10:28	TOR	MISS Bosh Free Throw 1 of 2	24 22.2%	27 77.8%
Q2 - 10:46	TOR	Delfino REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	24 21.7%	27 78.3%
Q2 - 10:47	ATL	MISS Johnson 24' 3PT Jump Shot	24 22.3%	27 77.7%
Q2 - 11:06	ATL	Law REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	24 23.3%	27 76.7%
Q2 - 11:07	TOR	MISS Parker 3PT Jump Shot	24 22.8%	27 77.2%
Q2 - 11:33	ATL	Wright 6' Hook Shot (2 PTS)	24 21.6%	27 78.4%
Q2 - 11:35	ATL	Wright REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	22 20.0%	27 80.0%
Q2 - 11:36	ATL	MISS Wright Layup	22 19.0%	27 81.0%
Q1 - 0:00.0	ATL		22 20.0%	27 80.0%
Q1 - 0:00.0	ATL	Hawks Rebound	22 20.0%	27 80.0%
Q1 - 0:00.0	ATL	MISS Johnson 53' 3PT Running Jump Shot	22 19.0%	27 81.0%
Q1 - 0:02.0	TOR	Calderon 20' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	22 19.9%	27 80.1%
Q1 - 0:17.0	ATL	Johnson 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Smith 1 AST)	22 21.8%	25 78.2%
Q1 - 0:27.0	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	19 18.4%	25 81.6%
Q1 - 0:28.0	TOR	MISS Calderon 24' 3PT Jump Shot	19 18.1%	25 81.9%
Q1 - 0:44.0	ATL	Smith 18' Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Johnson 3 AST)	19 17.3%	25 82.7%
Q1 - 1:09	TOR	Parker 11' Driving Bank Shot (6 PTS) (Calderon 4 AST)	17 15.8%	25 84.2%
Q1 - 1:33	TOR	Moon REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	17 17.4%	23 82.6%
Q1 - 1:34	ATL	MISS Law 19' Jump Shot	17 17.7%	23 82.3%
Q1 - 2:01	TOR	Calderon 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	17 18.7%	23 81.3%
Q1 - 2:24	TOR	Moon REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	17 20.2%	21 79.8%
Q1 - 2:26	ATL	MISS Johnson Free Throw 2 of 2	17 20.4%	21 79.6%
Q1 - 2:26	ATL	Johnson Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	17 21.5%	21 78.5%
Q1 - 2:41	TOR	Bosh 4' Jump Hook Shot (11 PTS)	16 20.1%	21 79.9%
Q1 - 2:52	TOR	Parker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	16 21.8%	19 78.2%
Q1 - 2:53	ATL	MISS Johnson 8' Running Jump Shot	16 22.2%	19 77.8%
Q1 - 3:09	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	16 23.4%	19 76.6%
Q1 - 3:10	TOR	MISS Bosh 21' Jump Shot	16 22.9%	19 77.1%
Q1 - 3:29	ATL	Horford Traveling Turnover (P1.T3)	16 21.6%	19 78.4%
Q1 - 3:51	TOR	Bosh Driving Layup (9 PTS)	16 23.4%	19 76.6%
Q1 - 4:03	TOR	Calderon REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	16 24.5%	17 75.5%
Q1 - 4:04	ATL	MISS Horford Tip Shot	16 25.2%	17 74.8%
Q1 - 4:05	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	16 26.6%	17 73.4%
Q1 - 4:06	ATL	MISS Horford Layup	16 25.2%	17 74.8%
Q1 - 4:07	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	16 26.6%	17 73.4%
Q1 - 4:08	ATL	Moon BLOCK (1 BLK)	16 25.2%	17 74.8%
Q1 - 4:10	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	16 26.6%	17 73.4%
Q1 - 4:13	ATL	MISS Johnson 3PT Jump Shot	16 25.2%	17 74.8%
Q1 - 4:29	TOR	Bargnani Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	16 26.6%	17 73.4%
Q1 - 4:29	TOR	Bargnani Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	16 26.9%	16 73.1%
Q1 - 4:41	TOR	Bosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	16 28.0%	15 72.0%
Q1 - 4:42	ATL	MISS Johnson 8' Running Jump Shot	16 28.6%	15 71.4%
Q1 - 5:01	TOR	RAPTORS Turnover: Shot Clock (T#2)	16 29.5%	15 70.5%
Q1 - 5:01	TOR	RAPTORS Rebound	16 27.7%	15 72.3%
Q1 - 5:01	TOR	MISS Calderon 23' Jump Shot	16 28.9%	15 71.1%
Q1 - 5:26	ATL	Smith Free Throw 1 of 1 (14 PTS)	16 27.7%	15 72.3%
Q1 - 5:43	TOR	Moon Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	13 24.6%	15 75.4%
Q1 - 5:43	TOR	Moon Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	13 25.0%	14 75.0%
Q1 - 5:58	TOR	Calderon REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	13 26.0%	13 74.0%
Q1 - 5:58	ATL	MISS Williams 19' Jump Shot	13 26.6%	13 73.4%
Q1 - 6:11	ATL	Hawks Rebound	13 27.5%	13 72.5%
Q1 - 6:12	TOR	MISS Calderon 24' 3PT Jump Shot	13 27.0%	13 73.0%
Q1 - 6:31	ATL	Smith Free Throw 1 of 1 (11 PTS)	13 25.9%	13 74.1%
Q1 - 6:45	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	10 23.0%	13 77.0%
Q1 - 6:46	TOR	MISS Bargnani 27' 3PT Jump Shot	10 22.5%	13 77.5%
Q1 - 7:11	ATL	Johnson Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	10 21.6%	13 78.4%
Q1 - 7:11	ATL	Johnson Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	9 21.3%	13 78.7%
Q1 - 7:25	TOR	Bosh Driving Finger Roll Layup (7 PTS) (Calderon 3 AST)	8 20.4%	13 79.6%
Q1 - 7:50	ATL	Smith Driving Dunk (8 PTS)	8 21.6%	11 78.4%
Q1 - 7:53	TOR	Calderon Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)	6 20.4%	11 79.6%
Q1 - 8:07	TOR	Bargnani REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	6 19.0%	11 81.0%
Q1 - 8:09	ATL	MISS Smith Driving Layup	6 19.4%	11 80.6%
Q1 - 8:15	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	6 20.4%	11 79.6%
Q1 - 8:16	TOR	MISS Bosh 20' Jump Shot	6 20.0%	11 80.0%
Q1 - 8:31	ATL	Smith 18' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Horford 1 AST)	6 19.1%	11 80.9%
Q1 - 8:43	TOR	Bosh Free Throw 1 of 1 (5 PTS)	4 18.0%	11 82.0%
Q1 - 8:55	TOR	Moon REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4 20.3%	8 79.7%
Q1 - 8:56	ATL	MISS Williams 20' Jump Shot	4 20.7%	8 79.3%
Q1 - 9:04	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4 21.6%	8 78.4%
Q1 - 9:06	TOR	MISS Bosh 11' Fadeaway Jumper	4 21.1%	8 78.9%
Q1 - 9:31	ATL	Smith Running Layup (4 PTS) (Johnson 2 AST)	4 20.0%	8 80.0%
Q1 - 9:46	TOR	Parker 11' Running Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Bosh 1 AST)	2 19.1%	8 80.9%
Q1 - 10:06	ATL	Smith 8' Turnaround Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Johnson 1 AST)	2 20.1%	6 79.9%
Q1 - 10:29	TOR	Bosh Dunk (2 PTS) (Calderon 2 AST)	0 19.0%	6 81.0%
Q1 - 10:51	ATL	Moon STEAL (2 STL)	0 20.0%	4 80.0%
Q1 - 11:11	TOR	Parker Dunk (2 PTS) (Calderon 1 AST)	0 21.4%	4 78.6%
Q1 - 11:15	ATL	Moon STEAL (1 STL)	0 22.7%	2 77.3%
Q1 - 11:34	TOR	Moon 22' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Bargnani 1 AST)	0 23.9%	2 76.1%
Q1 - 12:00	TOR	Jump Ball Bosh vs. Smith: Tip to Bargnani	0 25.4%	0 74.6%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

0.93 46.4%

TOR

1.07 53.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

ATL

39%

TOR

75%

Midrange

ATL

42%

TOR

39%

3PT | Effective 3PT

ATL

9.0

43%

64%

TOR

7.5

31%

47%

Free Throws

ATL

67%

TOR

77%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Hawks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Johnson	25	60%	12.5 / 21
J. Smith	24	75%	12.0 / 16
M. Williams	13	38%	6.5 / 17
A. Horford	8	36%	4.0 / 11
T. Lue	5	63%	2.5 / 4
L. Wright	2	50%	1.0 / 2
S. Jones	1	50%	0.5 / 1
A. Johnson	0	-	0.0 / 3
J. Childress	0	-	0.0 / 3
A. Law	0	-	0.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Raptors

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
C. Bosh	35	73%	17.5 / 24
A. Parker	18	75%	9.0 / 12
J. Calderon	13	59%	6.5 / 11
J. Moon	9	56%	4.5 / 8
K. Humphries	4	40%	2.0 / 5
J. Kapono	4	100%	2.0 / 2
A. Bargnani	2	25%	1.0 / 4
J. Dixon	2	50%	1.0 / 2
J. Graham	2	100%	1.0 / 1
C. Delfino	0	-	0.0 / 8

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

ATL

+13

-13

TOR

-7

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

0.93 46.4%

TOR

1.07 53.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	106.6 109.7	ATL 92.9 +14.4 TOR 107.2
Pace	91.4 90.7	ATL 84.4 +1.7 TOR 82.7
Avg. Poss. Time	15.6 15.9	ATL 17.1 +0.4 TOR 17.4
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	48.3% 51.1%	ATL 45.3% TOR 51.5% +6.2%
TO %	15.5% 12.3%	ATL 13.7% TOR 12.3% +1.4%
ORB %	29.8% 23.5%	ATL 23.1% +11.0% TOR 12.1%
FTrt	34.0 24.7	ATL 20.0 TOR 38.8 +18.8
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	60.6% 62.0%	ATL 77.4% +11.8% TOR 65.6%
STL %	7.9% 7.6%	ATL 4.8% TOR 10.8% +6.0%
BLK %	8.4% 6.9%	ATL 11.8% +5.2% TOR 6.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.16 and 2.16.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	52.0% 53.7%	ATL 46.4% TOR 53.6% +7.2%
Rim FG%	58.6% 58.5%	ATL 39.3% TOR 75.0% +35.7%
Mid FG%	38.5% 43.3%	ATL 42.4% +3.7% TOR 38.7%
3P %	35.6% 39.2%	ATL 42.9% +11.6% TOR 31.3%
FT %	77.2% 81.2%	ATL 66.7% TOR 76.9% +10.2%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	36.9% 28.9%	ATL 37.3% +7.5% TOR 29.9%
Mid Att. %	46.7% 49.4%	ATL 44.0% +2.3% TOR 46.3%
3P Att. %	16.5% 21.7%	ATL 18.7% TOR 23.9% +5.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	ATL	TOR
Possessions	84	83
Possession Minutes	23.9	24.1
Points	78	89
Rebounds	38	34
Assists	24	21
Steals	4	9
Blocks	6	4
Turnovers (Team)	13 (0)	7 (4)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	9 (4)	4 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	29 (1)	30 (3)
Field Goals	31-75	32-67
At-the-Rim FG	11-28	15-20
Midrange FG	14-33	12-31
2-Point FG	25-61	27-51
3-Point FG	6-14	5-16
Free Throws	10-15	20-26
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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20 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Joe Johnson G · 6'7" 240 · 27	42.3	25	60%	4	7	0	0	1	3	0	4	4-6	67%	3-7	43%	5-11	45%
Marvin Williams F · 6'9" 237 · 22	42.1	13	38%	9	1	0	1	1	3	3	6	3-4	75%	5-15	33%	0-0	-
Josh Smith F · 6'9" 225 · 22	38.5	24	75%	9	7	2	2	4	3	2	7	2-2	100%	11-16	69%	0-0	-
Al Horford C · 6'10" 245 · 22	38.3	8	36%	9	4	0	2	2	3	2	7	0-1	0%	4-11	36%	0-0	-
Anthony Johnson G · 6'3" 195 · 33	15.5	0	0%	0	1	1	0	1	3	0	0	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Josh Childress F-G · 6'8" 210 · 25	21.6	0	0%	3	0	0	1	2	0	0	3	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Acie Law G · 6'3" 202 · 23	17.6	0	0%	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Tyronn Lue G · 6'0" 175 · 31	12.5	5	63%	1	3	1	0	1	2	1	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-3	33%
Lorenzen Wright F-C · 6'11" 255 · 32	6.6	2	50%	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Solomon Jones F · 6'10" 235 · 24	4.8	1	50%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Mario West G · 6'5" 210 · 24	0.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Shelden Williams C-F · 6'9" 250 · 24
Salim Stoudamire #20 · G · 6'1" 175 · 25	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Zaza Pachulia #27 · C · 6'11" 270 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Speedy Claxton #12 · G · 5'11" 170 · 30	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	78	46%	38	24	4	6	13	0	9	29	10-15	67%	25-61	41%	6-14	43%

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20 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Joe Johnson G · 6'7" 240 · 27	42.3	25	60%	4	7	0	0	1	3	0	4	4-6	67%	3-7	43%	5-11	45%
Marvin Williams F · 6'9" 237 · 22	42.1	13	38%	9	1	0	1	1	3	3	6	3-4	75%	5-15	33%	0-0	-
Josh Smith F · 6'9" 225 · 22	38.5	24	75%	9	7	2	2	4	3	2	7	2-2	100%	11-16	69%	0-0	-
Al Horford C · 6'10" 245 · 22	38.3	8	36%	9	4	0	2	2	3	2	7	0-1	0%	4-11	36%	0-0	-
Anthony Johnson G · 6'3" 195 · 33	15.5	0	0%	0	1	1	0	1	3	0	0	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Josh Childress F-G · 6'8" 210 · 25	21.6	0	0%	3	0	0	1	2	0	0	3	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Acie Law G · 6'3" 202 · 23	17.6	0	0%	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Tyronn Lue G · 6'0" 175 · 31	12.5	5	63%	1	3	1	0	1	2	1	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-3	33%
Lorenzen Wright F-C · 6'11" 255 · 32	6.6	2	50%	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Solomon Jones F · 6'10" 235 · 24	4.8	1	50%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Mario West G · 6'5" 210 · 24	0.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Shelden Williams C-F · 6'9" 250 · 24
Salim Stoudamire #20 · G · 6'1" 175 · 25	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Zaza Pachulia #27 · C · 6'11" 270 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Speedy Claxton #12 · G · 5'11" 170 · 30	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	78	46%	38	24	4	6	13	0	9	29	10-15	67%	25-61	41%	6-14	43%

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14 Toronto Raptors

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Chris Bosh F · 6'11" 235 · 24	42.5	35	73%	9	3	1	1	1	2	1	8	11-14	79%	12-18	67%	0-0	-
Anthony Parker G · 6'6" 210 · 33	42.0	18	75%	5	2	1	0	0	2	2	3	0-0	-	3-6	50%	4-6	67%
Jose Calderon G · 6'3" 200 · 26	39.7	13	59%	6	9	1	0	1	2	1	5	2-2	100%	4-7	57%	1-4	25%
Jamario Moon F · 6'8" 205 · 28	38.5	9	56%	5	2	5	3	0	3	0	5	3-4	75%	3-5	60%	0-1	0%
Andrea Bargnani C · 7'0" 245 · 22	14.4	2	25%	2	1	0	0	0	4	0	2	2-2	100%	0-2	0%	0-1	0%
Carlos Delfino G-F · 6'6" 230 · 25	21.9	0	0%	4	1	0	0	2	3	0	4	0-2	0%	0-3	0%	0-4	0%
Rasho Nesterovic C · 7'0" 255 · 32	10.9	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Kris Humphries F · 6'9" 235 · 23	9.9	4	40%	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Juan Dixon G · 6'3" 165 · 29	8.3	2	50%	0	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Jason Kapono F · 6'8" 215 · 27	6.3	4	100%	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Joey Graham F · 6'7" 230 · 26	5.5	2	100%	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Maceo Baston F · 6'10" 230 · 32
T.J. Ford #11 · G · 6'0" 165 · 25	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Jorge Garbajosa #15 · F · 6'9" 245 · 30	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Darrick Martin #2 · G · 5'11" 170 · 37	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	89	54%	34	21	9	4	7	0	4	30	20-26	77%	27-51	53%	5-16	31%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE