Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, March 20, 2006

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	27	Hawks	12%	86	84
	1	Pistons	88%	101	91

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
ATL	96.6	87	99.4
DET	105.8	86	76.4

Scoring Opportunities

ATL

+18

-17

DET

+14

-13

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

0.95 47.7%

DET

1.05 52.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	ATL	DET
Q4 - 0:00.0	DET		84 0%	91 100%
Q4 - 0:15.0	ATL	Childress Dunk (13 PTS)	84 0.1%	91 99.9%
Q4 - 0:18.0	DET	Billups Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T13)	82 0.1%	91 99.9%
Q4 - 0:32.0	DET	Hamilton REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	82 0.1%	91 99.9%
Q4 - 0:34.0	ATL	Wallace BLOCK (3 BLK)	82 0.1%	91 99.9%
Q4 - 0:35.0	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:3 Def:8)	82 0.1%	91 99.9%
Q4 - 0:35.0	ATL	MISS Pachulia Tip Shot	82 0.1%	91 99.9%
Q4 - 0:36.0	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:2 Def:8)	82 0.1%	91 99.9%
Q4 - 0:38.0	ATL	Wallace BLOCK (2 BLK)	82 0.1%	91 99.9%
Q4 - 0:40.0	ATL	Childress REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	82 0.1%	91 99.9%
Q4 - 0:42.0	ATL	MISS Johnson 19' Jump Shot	82 0.1%	91 99.9%
Q4 - 0:53.0	ATL	Hawks Rebound	82 0.2%	91 99.8%
Q4 - 0:53.0	DET	MISS Billups 26' 3PT Jump Shot	82 0.1%	91 99.9%
Q4 - 1:10	ATL	Harrington Foul Turnover (P3.T17)	82 0.1%	91 99.9%
Q4 - 1:10	ATL	Hawks Rebound	82 0.3%	91 99.7%
Q4 - 1:12	DET	MISS Billups 16' Jump Shot	82 0.2%	91 99.8%
Q4 - 1:33	ATL	Childress Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)	82 0.2%	91 99.8%
Q4 - 1:33	ATL	Childress Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)	81 0.2%	91 99.8%
Q4 - 1:39	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)	80 0.2%	91 99.8%
Q4 - 1:41	DET	MISS Billups 25' 3PT Jump Shot	80 0.2%	91 99.8%
Q4 - 2:02	ATL	Johnson 25' 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS)	80 0.1%	91 99.9%
Q4 - 2:17	DET	Wallace Free Throw 2 of 2 (26 PTS)	77 0.1%	91 99.9%
Q4 - 2:17	DET	Wallace Free Throw 1 of 2 (25 PTS)	77 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 2:39	ATL	Harrington Dunk (23 PTS) (Pachulia 2 AST)	77 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 2:44	DET	Wallace Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T12)	75 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 3:05	ATL	Johnson 12' Jump Shot (14 PTS)	75 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 3:19	DET	Wallace 25' 3PT Jump Shot (24 PTS) (Billups 5 AST)	73 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 3:36	ATL	Smith Layup (14 PTS)	73 0.2%	86 99.8%
Q4 - 3:37	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)	71 0.1%	86 99.9%
Q4 - 3:38	ATL	MISS Smith Tip Shot	71 0.1%	86 99.9%
Q4 - 3:40	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	71 0.1%	86 99.9%
Q4 - 3:41	ATL	MISS Smith Layup	71 0.1%	86 99.9%
Q4 - 3:54	ATL	Hawks Rebound	71 0.1%	86 99.9%
Q4 - 3:55	DET	MISS Billups Layup	71 0.1%	86 99.9%
Q4 - 4:12	DET	Billups REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	71 0.1%	86 99.9%
Q4 - 4:14	ATL	MISS Smith 17' Jump Shot	71 0.1%	86 99.9%
Q4 - 4:40	DET	Billups 22' Jump Shot (14 PTS)	71 0.1%	86 99.9%
Q4 - 4:56	ATL	Ivey Layup (4 PTS)	71 0.2%	84 99.8%
Q4 - 4:59	ATL	Ivey REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	69 0.1%	84 99.9%
Q4 - 5:00	ATL	MISS Smith 25' 3PT Jump Shot	69 0.1%	84 99.9%
Q4 - 5:16	DET	Billups 27' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Wallace 4 AST)	69 0.2%	84 99.8%
Q4 - 5:27	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	69 0.4%	81 99.6%
Q4 - 5:30	DET	MISS Evans 24' 3PT Jump Shot	69 0.5%	81 99.5%
Q4 - 5:51	ATL	Smith 26' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Childress 2 AST)	69 0.4%	81 99.6%
Q4 - 6:11	DET	Billups Layup (9 PTS)	66 0.3%	81 99.7%
Q4 - 6:16	ATL	Billups STEAL (2 STL)	66 0.4%	79 99.6%
Q4 - 6:28	ATL	Childress REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	66 0.6%	79 99.4%
Q4 - 6:30	DET	MISS McDyess 18' Jump Shot	66 0.5%	79 99.5%
Q4 - 7:00	ATL	Smith Layup (9 PTS) (Ivey 2 AST)	66 0.4%	79 99.6%
Q4 - 7:05	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:1 Def:8)	64 0.4%	79 99.6%
Q4 - 7:07	DET	MISS Prince 11' Jump Shot	64 0.4%	79 99.6%
Q4 - 7:28	ATL	Pachulia Layup (11 PTS) (Smith 2 AST)	64 0.3%	79 99.7%
Q4 - 7:32	DET	Wallace Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T11)	62 0.2%	79 99.8%
Q4 - 7:36	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:4 Def:9)	62 0.2%	79 99.8%
Q4 - 7:38	DET	MISS Prince 16' Jump Shot	62 0.2%	79 99.8%
Q4 - 7:53	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	62 0.2%	79 99.8%
Q4 - 7:54	ATL	MISS Ivey 18' Jump Shot	62 0.2%	79 99.8%
Q4 - 8:06	DET	Wallace Layup (21 PTS) (Prince 3 AST)	62 0.3%	79 99.7%
Q4 - 8:24	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:3 Def:9)	62 0.4%	77 99.6%
Q4 - 8:26	ATL	Wallace BLOCK (3 BLK)	62 0.5%	77 99.5%
Q4 - 8:30	DET	Wallace Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T10)	62 0.6%	77 99.4%
Q4 - 8:34	ATL	Childress Driving Layup (9 PTS) (Pachulia 1 AST)	62 0.4%	77 99.6%
Q4 - 8:49	DET	Evans Dunk (10 PTS) (Billups 4 AST)	60 0.3%	77 99.7%
Q4 - 8:53	ATL	Billups STEAL (1 STL)	60 0.4%	75 99.6%
Q4 - 9:05	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	60 0.7%	75 99.3%
Q4 - 9:07	DET	MISS Evans 17' Jump Shot	60 0.6%	75 99.4%
Q4 - 9:26	DET	Billups REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	60 0.5%	75 99.5%
Q4 - 9:27	ATL	MISS Smith Layup	60 0.6%	75 99.4%
Q4 - 9:35	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	60 0.7%	75 99.3%
Q4 - 9:37	DET	MISS Billups 27' 3PT Jump Shot	60 0.6%	75 99.4%
Q4 - 9:42	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:3 Def:8)	60 0.5%	75 99.5%
Q4 - 9:43	DET	MISS Wallace 15' Jump Shot	60 0.6%	75 99.4%
Q4 - 10:08	DET	PISTONS Rebound	60 0.6%	75 99.4%
Q4 - 10:09	ATL	MISS Smith 7' Hook Shot	60 0.7%	75 99.3%
Q4 - 10:15	ATL	Hawks Rebound	60 0.8%	75 99.2%
Q4 - 10:16	ATL	MISS Johnson 25' 3PT Jump Shot	60 0.7%	75 99.3%
Q4 - 10:31	ATL	Batista REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	60 0.8%	75 99.2%
Q4 - 10:34	DET	MISS Evans 19' Jump Shot	60 0.8%	75 99.2%
Q4 - 10:53	DET	PISTONS Rebound	60 0.6%	75 99.4%
Q4 - 10:55	ATL	MISS Harrington 27' 3PT Jump Shot	60 0.7%	75 99.3%
Q4 - 11:02	ATL	Hawks Rebound	60 1.0%	75 99.0%
Q4 - 11:02	ATL	Wallace BLOCK (1 BLK)	60 0.8%	75 99.2%
Q4 - 11:14	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	60 1.0%	75 99.0%
Q4 - 11:16	DET	MISS Wallace 25' 3PT Jump Shot	60 0.9%	75 99.1%
Q4 - 11:23	DET	Billups REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	60 0.8%	75 99.2%
Q4 - 11:25	ATL	Wallace BLOCK (2 BLK)	60 0.8%	75 99.2%
Q4 - 11:44	DET	Billups 26' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Prince 2 AST)	60 1.0%	75 99.0%
Q3 - 0:00.0	ATL		60 1.4%	72 98.6%
Q3 - 0:00.0	ATL	Hawks Rebound	60 1.8%	72 98.2%
Q3 - 0:00.0	ATL	MISS Childress 41' 3PT Jump Shot	60 1.6%	72 98.4%
Q3 - 0:00.0	ATL	Hawks Rebound	60 1.8%	72 98.2%
Q3 - 0:02.0	DET	MISS Wallace Free Throw 2 of 2	60 1.9%	72 98.1%
Q3 - 0:02.0	DET	MISS Wallace Free Throw 1 of 2	60 1.8%	72 98.2%
Q3 - 0:10.0	ATL	Johnson 7' Running Jump Shot (12 PTS)	60 1.6%	72 98.4%
Q3 - 0:31.0	DET	McDyess Foul Turnover (P1.T9)	58 1.3%	72 98.7%
Q3 - 0:42.0	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:2 Def:8)	58 1.1%	72 98.9%
Q3 - 0:44.0	ATL	MISS Pachulia Free Throw 2 of 2	58 1.1%	72 98.9%
Q3 - 0:44.0	ATL	MISS Pachulia Free Throw 1 of 2	58 1.3%	72 98.7%
Q3 - 0:49.0	ATL	Harrington REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	58 1.3%	72 98.7%
Q3 - 0:50.0	DET	MISS Hamilton Layup	58 1.2%	72 98.8%
Q3 - 1:17	ATL	Harrington Layup (21 PTS) (Johnson 6 AST)	58 1.2%	72 98.8%
Q3 - 1:36	DET	Prince Dunk (18 PTS)	56 1.0%	72 99.0%
Q3 - 1:41	ATL	Prince STEAL (2 STL)	56 1.2%	70 98.8%
Q3 - 1:51	DET	Prince Traveling Turnover (P3.T8)	56 1.5%	70 98.5%
Q3 - 2:01	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:2 Def:7)	56 1.3%	70 98.7%
Q3 - 2:03	ATL	MISS Johnson 21' Jump Shot	56 1.4%	70 98.6%
Q3 - 2:26	DET	Hamilton Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)	56 1.6%	70 98.4%
Q3 - 2:26	DET	Hamilton Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)	56 1.6%	69 98.4%
Q3 - 2:29	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	56 1.9%	68 98.1%
Q3 - 2:31	ATL	MISS Harrington 8' Turnaround Jump Shot	56 2.0%	68 98.0%
Q3 - 2:46	DET	Hamilton 17' Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Billups 3 AST)	56 2.3%	68 97.7%
Q3 - 3:01	ATL	Johnson Driving Layup (10 PTS)	56 2.9%	66 97.1%
Q3 - 3:08	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	54 2.5%	66 97.5%
Q3 - 3:10	DET	MISS Billups 26' 3PT Jump Shot	54 2.3%	66 97.7%
Q3 - 3:27	ATL	Johnson 14' Jump Shot (8 PTS)	54 2.0%	66 98.0%
Q3 - 3:37	ATL	Childress REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	52 1.7%	66 98.3%
Q3 - 3:38	DET	MISS Hamilton Free Throw 2 of 2	52 1.7%	66 98.3%
Q3 - 3:38	DET	Hamilton Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)	52 1.5%	66 98.5%
Q3 - 3:58	ATL	Harrington 12' Jump Bank Shot (19 PTS)	52 1.7%	65 98.3%
Q3 - 4:25	DET	Prince Dunk (16 PTS) (Wallace 3 AST)	50 1.5%	65 98.5%
Q3 - 4:40	ATL	Harrington Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T13)	50 1.8%	63 98.2%
Q3 - 5:04	DET	Billups Layup (4 PTS) (Hamilton 5 AST)	50 2.3%	63 97.7%
Q3 - 5:08	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	50 2.7%	61 97.3%
Q3 - 5:09	ATL	MISS Childress Layup	50 2.8%	61 97.2%
Q3 - 5:12	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	50 3.2%	61 96.8%
Q3 - 5:15	DET	MISS Billups Reverse Layup	50 3.0%	61 97.0%
Q3 - 5:30	ATL	Smith 26' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Johnson 5 AST)	50 2.6%	61 97.4%
Q3 - 5:47	DET	Prince 9' Hook Shot (14 PTS)	47 1.9%	61 98.1%
Q3 - 6:03	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	47 2.4%	59 97.6%
Q3 - 6:05	ATL	Wallace BLOCK (1 BLK)	47 2.5%	59 97.5%
Q3 - 6:26	DET	Prince 12' Jump Shot (12 PTS)	47 2.8%	59 97.2%
Q3 - 6:30	DET	Prince REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	47 3.2%	57 96.8%
Q3 - 6:32	ATL	MISS Johnson 26' 3PT Jump Shot	47 3.4%	57 96.6%
Q3 - 6:45	ATL	Harrington REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	47 3.8%	57 96.2%
Q3 - 6:47	DET	MISS Wallace 25' 3PT Jump Shot	47 3.6%	57 96.4%
Q3 - 7:09	ATL	Harrington Free Throw 1 of 1 (17 PTS)	47 3.3%	57 96.7%
Q3 - 7:21	DET	Wallace Free Throw 2 of 2 (19 PTS)	44 2.5%	57 97.5%
Q3 - 7:21	DET	Wallace Free Throw 1 of 2 (18 PTS)	44 2.6%	56 97.4%
Q3 - 7:31	DET	Hamilton REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	44 2.9%	55 97.1%
Q3 - 7:34	DET	MISS Wallace 25' 3PT Jump Shot	44 3.2%	55 96.8%
Q3 - 8:01	ATL	Johnson 21' Jump Shot (6 PTS)	44 2.9%	55 97.1%
Q3 - 8:24	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	42 2.6%	55 97.4%
Q3 - 8:26	DET	MISS Billups 20' Jump Shot	42 2.5%	55 97.5%
Q3 - 8:53	ATL	Pachulia Layup (9 PTS) (Smith 1 AST)	42 2.2%	55 97.8%
Q3 - 8:57	ATL	Harrington REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	40 1.9%	55 98.1%
Q3 - 9:00	DET	MISS Hamilton 15' Jump Shot	40 1.8%	55 98.2%
Q3 - 9:23	ATL	Pachulia Driving Dunk (7 PTS)	40 1.7%	55 98.3%
Q3 - 9:48	DET	Hamilton Driving Layup (9 PTS)	38 1.5%	55 98.5%
Q3 - 10:14	ATL	Johnson 13' Turnaround Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Harrington 4 AST)	38 1.7%	53 98.3%
Q3 - 10:29	ATL	Ivey REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	36 1.5%	53 98.5%
Q3 - 10:32	DET	MISS Wallace 7' Hook Shot	36 1.4%	53 98.6%
Q3 - 10:48	ATL	Harrington 19' Jump Shot (14 PTS)	36 1.3%	53 98.7%
Q3 - 11:09	ATL	Harrington REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	34 1.2%	53 98.8%
Q3 - 11:11	DET	MISS Prince 26' 3PT Jump Shot	34 1.1%	53 98.9%
Q3 - 11:38	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	34 1.0%	53 99.0%
Q3 - 11:40	ATL	MISS Johnson 16' Jump Shot	34 1.0%	53 99.0%
Q2 - 0:00.0	ATL		34 1.2%	53 98.8%
Q2 - 0:01.0	DET	Billups Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	34 1.3%	53 98.7%
Q2 - 0:01.0	DET	Billups Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	34 1.3%	52 98.7%
Q2 - 0:21.0	DET	PISTONS Rebound	34 1.5%	51 98.5%
Q2 - 0:22.0	DET	MISS Wallace 26' 3PT Jump Shot	34 1.6%	51 98.4%
Q2 - 0:28.0	DET	PISTONS Rebound	34 1.5%	51 98.5%
Q2 - 0:28.0	DET	MISS Billups Layup	34 1.6%	51 98.4%
Q2 - 0:44.0	DET	McDyess REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	34 1.5%	51 98.5%
Q2 - 0:46.0	ATL	MISS Pachulia Layup	34 1.5%	51 98.5%
Q2 - 0:54.0	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	34 1.6%	51 98.4%
Q2 - 0:54.0	ATL	MISS Smith Layup	34 1.5%	51 98.5%
Q2 - 0:57.0	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	34 1.6%	51 98.4%
Q2 - 0:59.0	ATL	MISS Johnson 27' 3PT Jump Shot	34 1.5%	51 98.5%
Q2 - 1:05	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	34 1.7%	51 98.3%
Q2 - 1:06	DET	MISS Hamilton Layup	34 1.7%	51 98.3%
Q2 - 1:24	DET	McDyess REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	34 1.6%	51 98.4%
Q2 - 1:27	ATL	MISS Ivey 15' Jump Shot	34 1.6%	51 98.4%
Q2 - 1:42	ATL	Ivey REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	34 1.7%	51 98.3%
Q2 - 1:44	DET	MISS Wallace 26' 3PT Jump Shot	34 1.7%	51 98.3%
Q2 - 2:06	ATL	Pachulia Driving Layup (5 PTS)	34 1.6%	51 98.4%
Q2 - 2:19	DET	Wallace 3 Second Violation Turnover (P2.T7)	32 1.4%	51 98.6%
Q2 - 2:25	DET	McDyess REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	32 1.3%	51 98.7%
Q2 - 2:27	DET	MISS Wallace 16' Jump Shot	32 1.4%	51 98.6%
Q2 - 2:45	DET	McDyess REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	32 1.3%	51 98.7%
Q2 - 2:47	ATL	MISS Pachulia 14' Jump Shot	32 1.3%	51 98.7%
Q2 - 2:54	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	32 1.4%	51 98.6%
Q2 - 2:56	DET	MISS Delfino 27' 3PT Jump Shot	32 1.4%	51 98.6%
Q2 - 3:19	ATL	Harrington Layup (12 PTS) (Johnson 4 AST)	32 1.4%	51 98.6%
Q2 - 3:43	DET	Wallace 26' 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Delfino 1 AST)	30 1.2%	51 98.8%
Q2 - 3:59	ATL	Evans STEAL (1 STL)	30 1.5%	48 98.5%
Q2 - 4:06	ATL	Childress REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	30 1.8%	48 98.2%
Q2 - 4:08	DET	MISS McDyess Layup	30 1.7%	48 98.3%
Q2 - 4:18	DET	Evans REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	30 1.6%	48 98.4%
Q2 - 4:20	DET	MISS Billups 26' 3PT Jump Shot	30 1.7%	48 98.3%
Q2 - 4:29	ATL	Harrington Layup (10 PTS)	30 1.6%	48 98.4%
Q2 - 4:39	ATL	Harrington REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	28 1.4%	48 98.6%
Q2 - 4:41	ATL	MISS Smith 18' Jump Shot	28 1.3%	48 98.7%
Q2 - 5:04	DET	Wallace Layup (14 PTS)	28 1.5%	48 98.5%
Q2 - 5:05	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	28 1.6%	46 98.4%
Q2 - 5:06	DET	MISS Evans Layup	28 1.8%	46 98.2%
Q2 - 5:12	DET	Delfino REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	28 1.6%	46 98.4%
Q2 - 5:14	ATL	MISS Harrington 16' Jump Shot	28 1.7%	46 98.3%
Q2 - 5:35	DET	Evans 25' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (McDyess 1 AST)	28 1.8%	46 98.2%
Q2 - 5:55	DET	McDyess REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	28 2.3%	43 97.7%
Q2 - 5:57	ATL	MISS Ivey 25' 3PT Jump Shot	28 2.4%	43 97.6%
Q2 - 5:59	ATL	Ivey REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	28 2.6%	43 97.4%
Q2 - 6:01	ATL	McDyess BLOCK (1 BLK)	28 2.4%	43 97.6%
Q2 - 6:13	ATL	MISS Smith Free Throw Technical	28 2.7%	43 97.3%
Q2 - 6:24	DET	Wallace 15' Jump Shot (12 PTS)	28 2.7%	43 97.3%
Q2 - 6:45	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	28 2.9%	41 97.1%
Q2 - 6:46	ATL	MISS Childress Free Throw 2 of 2	28 2.9%	41 97.1%
Q2 - 6:46	ATL	MISS Childress Free Throw 1 of 2	28 3.2%	41 96.8%
Q2 - 6:48	DET	Hunter Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T6)	28 3.3%	41 96.7%
Q2 - 7:05	ATL	Smith 16' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Smith 2 AST)	28 3.1%	41 96.9%
Q2 - 7:15	DET	Evans Layup (5 PTS)	26 2.8%	41 97.2%
Q2 - 7:17	DET	Evans REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	26 3.1%	39 96.9%
Q2 - 7:19	DET	MISS Prince 25' 3PT Jump Shot	26 3.3%	39 96.7%
Q2 - 7:49	ATL	Smith Alley Oop Dunk (2 PTS) (Smith 1 AST)	26 3.1%	39 96.9%
Q2 - 8:04	DET	Wallace 13' Turnaround Jump Shot (10 PTS)	24 2.9%	39 97.1%
Q2 - 8:23	ATL	Smith 3 Second Violation Turnover (P3.T11)	24 3.1%	37 96.9%
Q2 - 8:47	DET	Evans 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Hunter 2 AST)	24 3.5%	37 96.5%
Q2 - 9:19	ATL	Childress Driving Layup (7 PTS) (Harrington 3 AST)	24 4.2%	34 95.8%
Q2 - 9:39	DET	Prince Layup (10 PTS) (Hunter 1 AST)	22 3.9%	34 96.1%
Q2 - 9:44	ATL	Wallace STEAL (1 STL)	22 4.2%	32 95.8%
Q2 - 10:10	DET	McDyess Layup (4 PTS) (Prince 1 AST)	22 4.8%	32 95.2%
Q2 - 10:27	DET	McDyess REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	22 5.2%	30 94.8%
Q2 - 10:30	ATL	MISS Johnson 27' 3PT Jump Shot	22 5.4%	30 94.6%
Q2 - 10:38	ATL	Childress REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	22 5.8%	30 94.2%
Q2 - 10:40	DET	MISS Wallace 21' Jump Shot	22 5.6%	30 94.4%
Q2 - 11:08	ATL	Batista Layup (2 PTS) (Childress 1 AST)	22 5.2%	30 94.8%
Q2 - 11:13	DET	Prince Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T5)	20 4.7%	30 95.3%
Q2 - 11:21	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	20 4.3%	30 95.7%
Q2 - 11:22	ATL	MISS Harrington Free Throw 2 of 2	20 4.4%	30 95.6%
Q2 - 11:22	ATL	MISS Harrington Free Throw 1 of 2	20 4.6%	30 95.4%
Q2 - 11:38	DET	Prince Offensive Foul Turnover (P1.T4)	20 4.7%	30 95.3%
Q2 - 11:45	ATL	Johnson Double Dribble Turnover (P2.T9)	20 4.3%	30 95.7%
Q1 - 0:00.0	ATL		20 4.8%	30 95.2%
Q1 - 0:00.0	ATL	Hawks Rebound	20 4.8%	30 95.2%
Q1 - 0:00.0	ATL	MISS Johnson 52' 3PT Jump Shot	20 4.5%	30 95.5%
Q1 - 0:02.0	DET	Hamilton Free Throw 1 of 1 (7 PTS)	20 4.7%	30 95.3%
Q1 - 0:09.0	ATL	Wallace STEAL (4 STL)	20 5.8%	27 94.2%
Q1 - 0:22.0	ATL	Batista REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	20 6.2%	27 93.8%
Q1 - 0:24.0	ATL	Prince BLOCK (1 BLK)	20 5.9%	27 94.1%
Q1 - 0:32.0	DET	Hamilton Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T3)	20 6.2%	27 93.8%
Q1 - 0:39.0	ATL	Wallace STEAL (3 STL)	20 5.8%	27 94.2%
Q1 - 0:42.0	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	20 6.2%	27 93.8%
Q1 - 0:44.0	DET	MISS Hamilton 26' 3PT Jump Shot	20 6.1%	27 93.9%
Q1 - 1:02	ATL	Wallace STEAL (2 STL)	20 5.8%	27 94.2%
Q1 - 1:21	DET	McDyess 17' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Hamilton 4 AST)	20 6.2%	27 93.8%
Q1 - 1:39	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	20 6.9%	25 93.1%
Q1 - 1:40	ATL	MISS Smith 27' 3PT Jump Shot	20 7.1%	25 92.9%
Q1 - 1:47	ATL	Batista REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	20 7.4%	25 92.6%
Q1 - 1:49	DET	MISS Hamilton 10' Jump Shot	20 7.3%	25 92.7%
Q1 - 2:02	ATL	Prince STEAL (1 STL)	20 6.9%	25 93.1%
Q1 - 2:15	DET	Wallace Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	20 7.4%	25 92.6%
Q1 - 2:15	DET	MISS Wallace Free Throw 1 of 2	20 7.8%	24 92.2%
Q1 - 2:23	DET	Prince REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	20 7.5%	24 92.5%
Q1 - 2:25	ATL	MISS Johnson 15' Jump Shot	20 7.7%	24 92.3%
Q1 - 2:37	DET	Wallace Tip Shot (4 PTS)	20 8.1%	24 91.9%
Q1 - 2:39	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	20 8.9%	22 91.1%
Q1 - 2:40	DET	MISS Wallace Layup	20 9.4%	22 90.6%
Q1 - 2:41	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	20 8.9%	22 91.1%
Q1 - 2:43	DET	MISS Hamilton Layup	20 9.4%	22 90.6%
Q1 - 2:55	DET	PISTONS Rebound	20 8.9%	22 91.1%
Q1 - 2:57	DET	MISS Billups 19' Jump Shot	20 9.4%	22 90.6%
Q1 - 3:12	ATL	Childress 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Harrington 2 AST)	20 8.7%	22 91.3%
Q1 - 3:34	DET	Wallace Alley Oop Dunk (2 PTS) (Hamilton 3 AST)	17 7.5%	22 92.5%
Q1 - 3:46	DET	PISTONS Rebound	17 8.0%	20 92.0%
Q1 - 3:47	DET	MISS Wallace 15' Jump Shot	17 8.6%	20 91.4%
Q1 - 3:55	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	17 8.0%	20 92.0%
Q1 - 3:58	ATL	MISS Harrington 25' 3PT Jump Shot	17 8.3%	20 91.7%
Q1 - 4:16	DET	Wallace 25' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Hamilton 2 AST)	17 8.6%	20 91.4%
Q1 - 4:27	ATL	Childress Driving Layup (2 PTS)	17 10.0%	17 90.0%
Q1 - 4:43	DET	Prince 9' Hook Shot (8 PTS)	15 9.4%	17 90.6%
Q1 - 5:11	ATL	Pachulia Foul Turnover (P3.T4)	15 9.7%	15 90.3%
Q1 - 5:24	DET	Wallace Free Throw 1 of 1 (5 PTS)	15 10.5%	15 89.5%
Q1 - 5:41	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	15 12.2%	12 87.8%
Q1 - 5:42	ATL	MISS Pachulia Free Throw 2 of 2	15 12.3%	12 87.7%
Q1 - 5:42	ATL	Pachulia Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	15 12.9%	12 87.1%
Q1 - 5:46	DET	Wallace Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T2)	14 12.3%	12 87.7%
Q1 - 6:01	ATL	Pachulia Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T3)	14 11.1%	12 88.9%
Q1 - 6:15	DET	Prince 16' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Hamilton 1 AST)	14 12.0%	12 88.0%
Q1 - 6:37	ATL	Smith Foul Turnover (P1.T2)	14 12.8%	10 87.2%
Q1 - 6:40	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	14 13.8%	10 86.2%
Q1 - 6:41	ATL	MISS Ivey 17' Jump Shot	14 13.1%	10 86.9%
Q1 - 6:48	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	14 13.8%	10 86.2%
Q1 - 6:50	ATL	MISS Harrington Tip Shot	14 13.1%	10 86.9%
Q1 - 6:51	ATL	Harrington REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	14 13.8%	10 86.2%
Q1 - 6:53	ATL	MISS Harrington Layup	14 13.1%	10 86.9%
Q1 - 7:02	DET	Prince 19' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Billups 2 AST)	14 13.2%	10 86.8%
Q1 - 7:22	ATL	Johnson 11' Running Jump Shot (2 PTS)	14 14.0%	8 86.0%
Q1 - 7:39	ATL	Hawks Rebound	12 13.3%	8 86.7%
Q1 - 7:40	DET	MISS Billups 26' 3PT Jump Shot	12 13.0%	8 87.0%
Q1 - 7:48	ATL	Wallace STEAL (1 STL)	12 12.3%	8 87.7%
Q1 - 8:02	DET	Prince Layup (2 PTS) (Wallace 2 AST)	12 12.9%	8 87.1%
Q1 - 8:25	ATL	Harrington 25' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Johnson 3 AST)	12 13.7%	6 86.3%
Q1 - 8:35	DET	Hamilton Driving Layup (4 PTS)	9 12.1%	6 87.9%
Q1 - 8:56	ATL	Pachulia 15' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Harrington 1 AST)	9 12.8%	4 87.2%
Q1 - 9:05	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	7 12.0%	4 88.0%
Q1 - 9:07	DET	MISS Prince 24' 3PT Jump Shot	7 11.7%	4 88.3%
Q1 - 9:16	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	7 11.0%	4 89.0%
Q1 - 9:18	ATL	MISS Smith Layup	7 11.3%	4 88.7%
Q1 - 9:35	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	7 12.0%	4 88.0%
Q1 - 9:36	DET	MISS Wallace Layup	7 11.7%	4 88.3%
Q1 - 9:56	ATL	Harrington 26' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Johnson 2 AST)	7 11.1%	4 88.9%
Q1 - 10:11	DET	Wallace 9' Hook Shot (2 PTS) (Billups 1 AST)	4 9.7%	4 90.3%
Q1 - 10:29	ATL	Harrington 17' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Ivey 1 AST)	4 10.3%	2 89.7%
Q1 - 10:43	DET	Hamilton Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)	2 9.7%	2 90.3%
Q1 - 10:57	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	2 9.0%	2 91.0%
Q1 - 11:00	ATL	MISS Johnson 15' Jump Shot	2 9.2%	2 90.8%
Q1 - 11:07	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	2 9.6%	2 90.4%
Q1 - 11:09	DET	MISS Wallace Layup	2 9.4%	2 90.6%
Q1 - 11:31	ATL	Ivey 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Johnson 1 AST)	2 9.0%	2 91.0%
Q1 - 11:54	DET	Hamilton Dunk (2 PTS) (Wallace 1 AST)	0 8.4%	2 91.6%
Q1 - 12:00	DET	Jump Ball Wallace vs. Smith: Tip to Wallace	0 9.0%	0 91.0%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

0.95 47.7%

DET

1.05 52.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

ATL

54%

DET

62%

Midrange

ATL

43%

DET

42%

3PT | Effective 3PT

ATL

9.0

35%

53%

DET

10.5

29%

44%

Free Throws

ATL

33%

DET

75%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Hawks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Harrington	23	57%	11.5 / 20
J. Johnson	17	47%	8.5 / 18
J. Smith	14	44%	7.0 / 16
J. Childress	13	65%	6.5 / 10
Z. Pachulia	11	46%	5.5 / 12
R. Ivey	4	25%	2.0 / 8
E. Batista	2	100%	1.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Pistons

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
R. Wallace	26	65%	13.0 / 20
T. Prince	18	64%	9.0 / 14
C. Billups	14	39%	7.0 / 18
R. Hamilton	14	54%	7.0 / 13
M. Evans	10	63%	5.0 / 8
B. Wallace	5	31%	2.5 / 8
A. McDyess	4	50%	2.0 / 4
C. Delfino	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

ATL

+18

-17

DET

+14

-13

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

0.95 47.7%

DET

1.05 52.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	106.6 110.1	ATL 96.6 +9.3 DET 105.8
Pace	90.3 87.4	ATL 99.4 +23.0 DET 76.4
Avg. Poss. Time	15.8 17.3	ATL 14.5 +4.4 DET 18.8
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	48.6% 49.7%	ATL 50.0% DET 50.0%
TO %	16.5% 12.2%	ATL 16.6% DET 13.1% +3.5%
ORB %	31.5% 28.9%	ATL 34.1% +6.3% DET 27.8%
FTrt	34.0 29.7	ATL 15.0 DET 20.3 +5.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	55.2% 66.1%	ATL 54.1% DET 61.1% +7.0%
STL %	7.8% 8.0%	ATL 9.2% DET 11.6% +2.4%
BLK %	7.5% 9.0%	ATL 7.3% DET 12.7% +5.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.33 and 2.33.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	51.8% 52.1%	ATL 47.7% DET 52.3% +4.6%
Rim FG%	55.8% 59.0%	ATL 54.3% DET 62.1% +7.8%
Mid FG%	39.3% 41.0%	ATL 42.9% +0.6% DET 42.3%
3P %	36.7% 38.4%	ATL 35.3% +6.1% DET 29.2%
FT %	75.0% 72.7%	ATL 33.3% DET 75.0% +41.7%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	39.3% 28.3%	ATL 43.8% +7.0% DET 36.7%
Mid Att. %	43.0% 49.6%	ATL 35.0% DET 32.9% +2.1%
3P Att. %	17.8% 22.1%	ATL 21.3% DET 30.4% +9.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	ATL	DET
Possessions	87	86
Possession Minutes	21.0	27.0
Points	84	91
Rebounds	40	37
Assists	20	22
Steals	8	10
Blocks	4	8
Turnovers (Team)	17 (0)	13 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	14 (4)	10 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	26 (5)	27 (2)
Field Goals	37-80	36-79
At-the-Rim FG	19-35	18-29
Midrange FG	12-28	11-26
2-Point FG	31-63	29-55
3-Point FG	6-17	7-24
Free Throws	4-12	12-16
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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27 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Josh Smith F · 6'9" 225 · 20	44.3	14	44%	7	2	0	1	4	4	3	4	0-1	0%	4-12	33%	2-4	50%
Joe Johnson G · 6'7" 240 · 25	42.4	17	47%	4	6	1	0	2	3	2	2	0-0	-	7-12	58%	1-6	17%
Al Harrington F · 6'9" 245 · 26	41.3	23	57%	6	4	1	1	3	4	2	4	1-3	33%	8-15	53%	2-4	50%
Zaza Pachulia C · 6'11" 270 · 22	35.1	11	46%	11	2	1	1	4	3	3	8	1-4	25%	5-10	50%	0-0	-
Royal Ivey G · 6'4" 200 · 24	21.9	4	25%	4	2	1	0	0	4	2	2	0-0	-	2-7	29%	0-1	0%
Josh Childress F-G · 6'8" 210 · 23	38.3	13	65%	5	2	3	0	3	3	1	4	2-4	50%	4-6	67%	1-2	50%
Esteban Batista F-C · 6'10" 268 · 23	7.0	2	100%	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Donta Smith G · 6'7" 215 · 22	6.8	0	0%	0	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
John Edwards C · 7'0" 275 · 25	2.9	0	0%	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Marvin Williams F · 6'9" 237 · 20
Salim Stoudamire G · 6'1" 175 · 23
James Lang C · 6'10" 305 · 22
Tyronn Lue #10 · G · 6'0" 175 · 29	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	84	48%	40	20	8	4	17	0	14	26	4-12	33%	31-63	49%	6-17	35%

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27 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Josh Smith F · 6'9" 225 · 20	44.3	14	44%	7	2	0	1	4	4	3	4	0-1	0%	4-12	33%	2-4	50%
Joe Johnson G · 6'7" 240 · 25	42.4	17	47%	4	6	1	0	2	3	2	2	0-0	-	7-12	58%	1-6	17%
Al Harrington F · 6'9" 245 · 26	41.3	23	57%	6	4	1	1	3	4	2	4	1-3	33%	8-15	53%	2-4	50%
Zaza Pachulia C · 6'11" 270 · 22	35.1	11	46%	11	2	1	1	4	3	3	8	1-4	25%	5-10	50%	0-0	-
Royal Ivey G · 6'4" 200 · 24	21.9	4	25%	4	2	1	0	0	4	2	2	0-0	-	2-7	29%	0-1	0%
Josh Childress F-G · 6'8" 210 · 23	38.3	13	65%	5	2	3	0	3	3	1	4	2-4	50%	4-6	67%	1-2	50%
Esteban Batista F-C · 6'10" 268 · 23	7.0	2	100%	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Donta Smith G · 6'7" 215 · 22	6.8	0	0%	0	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
John Edwards C · 7'0" 275 · 25	2.9	0	0%	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Marvin Williams F · 6'9" 237 · 20
Salim Stoudamire G · 6'1" 175 · 23
James Lang C · 6'10" 305 · 22
Tyronn Lue #10 · G · 6'0" 175 · 29	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	84	48%	40	20	8	4	17	0	14	26	4-12	33%	31-63	49%	6-17	35%

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1 Detroit Pistons

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Rasheed Wallace F · 6'11" 230 · 32	38.9	26	65%	8	4	1	3	3	1	2	6	5-5	100%	6-10	60%	3-8	38%
Chauncey Billups G · 6'3" 210 · 29	38.1	14	39%	3	5	2	0	1	0	0	3	2-2	100%	3-9	33%	2-8	25%
Tayshaun Prince F · 6'9" 212 · 26	36.9	18	64%	2	3	2	1	3	1	0	2	0-0	-	9-11	82%	0-3	0%
Richard Hamilton G · 6'7" 193 · 28	33.1	14	54%	2	5	0	0	2	3	1	1	4-5	80%	5-10	50%	0-1	0%
Ben Wallace C · 6'9" 240 · 32	30.9	5	31%	13	1	4	3	2	2	4	9	1-4	25%	2-6	33%	0-0	-
Antonio McDyess F-C · 6'9" 245 · 32	24.4	4	50%	6	1	0	1	1	5	1	5	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Maurice Evans G-F · 6'5" 220 · 27	20.6	10	63%	2	0	1	0	0	1	2	0	0-0	-	2-5	40%	2-3	67%
Lindsey Hunter G · 6'2" 195 · 35	9.9	0	0%	0	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Carlos Delfino G-F · 6'6" 230 · 24	6.8	0	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Dale Davis C-F · 6'11" 252 · 37	0.5	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Tony Delk G · 6'2" 189 · 32
Jason Maxiell F · 6'7" 260 · 23
Kelvin Cato #13 · C · 6'11" 275 · 32	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Amir Johnson #25 · C-F · 6'9" 240 · 19	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Alex Acker #6 · G · 6'5" 185 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	91	52%	37	22	10	8	13	0	10	27	12-16	75%	29-55	53%	7-24	29%

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Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE