Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, March 17, 2006

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	8	Nuggets	43%	89	102
	14	Grizzlies	57%	91	116

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
DEN	114.6	89	98.5
MEM	128.9	90	82.9

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

-15

MEM

+14

-16

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.23 61.4%

MEM

1.32 65.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	MEM
Q4 - 0:00.0	MEM		102 0%	116 100%
Q4 - 0:16.0	DEN	Evans Layup (10 PTS) (Hodge 1 AST)	102 0.1%	116 99.9%
Q4 - 0:28.0	MEM	Miller Free Throw 1 of 1 (41 PTS)	100 0.1%	116 99.9%
Q4 - 0:49.0	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	100 0.1%	113 99.9%
Q4 - 0:51.0	DEN	MISS Buckner 25' 3PT Jump Shot	100 0.1%	113 99.9%
Q4 - 0:55.0	MEM	Gasol Bad Pass Turnover (P5.T16)	100 0.1%	113 99.9%
Q4 - 0:59.0	DEN	Johnson 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Buckner 2 AST)	100 0.1%	113 99.9%
Q4 - 1:10	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	97 0.1%	113 99.9%
Q4 - 1:12	MEM	MISS Miller 26' 3PT Jump Shot	97 0.1%	113 99.9%
Q4 - 1:28	MEM	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	97 0.1%	113 99.9%
Q4 - 1:31	DEN	MISS Anthony 25' 3PT Jump Shot	97 0.1%	113 99.9%
Q4 - 1:36	MEM	Gasol Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T15)	97 0.1%	113 99.9%
Q4 - 1:54	MEM	Atkins REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	97 0.1%	113 99.9%
Q4 - 1:57	DEN	MISS Johnson 25' 3PT Jump Shot	97 0.1%	113 99.9%
Q4 - 2:11	MEM	Miller Free Throw 2 of 2 (38 PTS)	97 0.1%	113 99.9%
Q4 - 2:11	MEM	Miller Free Throw 1 of 2 (37 PTS)	97 0.1%	112 99.9%
Q4 - 2:30	MEM	Atkins REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	97 0.1%	111 99.9%
Q4 - 2:32	DEN	MISS Buckner 3PT Jump Shot	97 0.1%	111 99.9%
Q4 - 2:45	MEM	Miller 25' 3PT Jump Shot (36 PTS) (Jones 5 AST)	97 0.2%	111 99.8%
Q4 - 3:06	DEN	Johnson Foul Turnover (P1.T17)	97 0.5%	108 99.5%
Q4 - 3:10	MEM	Atkins Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T14)	97 1.0%	108 99.0%
Q4 - 3:27	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:4 Def:2)	97 0.5%	108 99.5%
Q4 - 3:29	MEM	MISS Miller 25' 3PT Jump Shot	97 0.8%	108 99.2%
Q4 - 3:53	DEN	Johnson 26' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Patterson 1 AST)	97 1.1%	108 98.9%
Q4 - 4:08	MEM	Gasol Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T13)	94 0.5%	108 99.5%
Q4 - 4:19	DEN	Elson Foul Turnover (P1.T16)	94 0.4%	108 99.6%
Q4 - 4:29	DEN	Elson REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)	94 0.5%	108 99.5%
Q4 - 4:31	MEM	MISS Gasol 18' Jump Shot	94 0.5%	108 99.5%
Q4 - 4:54	DEN	Patterson Free Throw 2 of 2 (17 PTS)	94 0.3%	108 99.7%
Q4 - 4:54	DEN	Patterson Free Throw 1 of 2 (16 PTS)	93 0.3%	108 99.7%
Q4 - 4:56	DEN	Patterson REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	92 0.2%	108 99.8%
Q4 - 4:58	MEM	MISS Miller 21' Jump Shot	92 0.2%	108 99.8%
Q4 - 5:17	MEM	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	92 0.3%	108 99.7%
Q4 - 5:19	DEN	MISS Anthony 25' 3PT Jump Shot	92 0.4%	108 99.6%
Q4 - 5:32	MEM	Miller 21' Jump Shot (33 PTS) (Atkins 6 AST)	92 0.5%	108 99.5%
Q4 - 5:49	MEM	Atkins REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	92 0.6%	106 99.4%
Q4 - 5:51	DEN	MISS Johnson 25' 3PT Jump Shot	92 0.7%	106 99.3%
Q4 - 6:01	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	92 1.4%	106 98.6%
Q4 - 6:02	MEM	MISS Atkins 25' 3PT Jump Shot	92 1.2%	106 98.8%
Q4 - 6:27	MEM	Jump Ball Tsakalidis vs. Miller: Tip to Gasol	92 0.9%	106 99.1%
Q4 - 6:39	MEM	Tsakalidis Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)	92 1.3%	106 98.7%
Q4 - 6:39	MEM	Tsakalidis Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)	92 1.4%	105 98.6%
Q4 - 6:59	DEN	Elson 22' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Miller 6 AST)	92 1.7%	104 98.3%
Q4 - 7:14	MEM	Gasol Driving Layup (18 PTS)	90 1.9%	104 98.1%
Q4 - 7:34	DEN	Miller Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS)	90 2.4%	102 97.6%
Q4 - 7:34	DEN	Miller Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)	89 2.3%	102 97.7%
Q4 - 7:45	DEN	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	88 1.9%	102 98.1%
Q4 - 7:46	MEM	MISS Tsakalidis Free Throw 1 of 1	88 1.8%	102 98.2%
Q4 - 8:04	MEM	Burks REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	88 3.1%	100 96.9%
Q4 - 8:06	DEN	Tsakalidis BLOCK (1 BLK)	88 3.4%	100 96.6%
Q4 - 8:19	DEN	Evans REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	88 4.0%	100 96.0%
Q4 - 8:21	MEM	MISS Jones 19' Jump Shot	88 3.7%	100 96.3%
Q4 - 8:45	DEN	Miller Foul Turnover (P4.T14)	88 3.1%	100 96.9%
Q4 - 8:50	DEN	Evans REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	88 3.9%	100 96.0%
Q4 - 8:53	MEM	MISS Miller 25' 3PT Jump Shot	88 3.7%	100 96.3%
Q4 - 8:54	MEM	Tsakalidis REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)	88 3.1%	100 96.9%
Q4 - 8:57	MEM	MISS Burks 22' Jump Shot	88 3.7%	100 96.3%
Q4 - 9:17	DEN	Anthony Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T13)	88 3.7%	100 96.3%
Q4 - 9:35	MEM	Jones Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T12)	88 4.7%	100 95.3%
Q4 - 9:57	DEN	Anthony 22' Jump Shot (33 PTS) (Eisley 4 AST)	88 3.7%	100 96.3%
Q4 - 10:09	MEM	Battier 20' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Jones 4 AST)	86 3.5%	100 96.5%
Q4 - 10:23	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)	86 4.3%	98 95.7%
Q4 - 10:26	DEN	MISS Patterson 5' Running Jump Shot	86 4.6%	98 95.4%
Q4 - 10:35	DEN	Evans REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	86 5.4%	98 94.6%
Q4 - 10:37	MEM	MISS Jones Driving Layup	86 5.0%	98 95.0%
Q4 - 11:01	DEN	Anthony 11' Fadeaway Jumper (31 PTS)	86 4.9%	98 95.1%
Q4 - 11:25	MEM	Jones 17' Jump Shot (17 PTS)	84 4.0%	98 96.0%
Q4 - 11:44	DEN	Patterson Free Throw 1 of 1 (15 PTS)	84 4.8%	96 95.2%
Q3 - 0:00.0	MEM		81 3.2%	96 96.8%
Q3 - 0:00.0	MEM	GRIZZLIES Rebound	81 2.6%	96 97.4%
Q3 - 0:01.0	MEM	MISS Burks 38' 3PT Jump Shot	81 3.5%	96 96.5%
Q3 - 0:04.0	DEN	Anthony Dunk (29 PTS) (Eisley 2 AST)	81 3.1%	96 96.9%
Q3 - 0:19.0	MEM	Jones Traveling Turnover (P4.T11)	79 2.5%	96 97.5%
Q3 - 0:22.0	DEN	Jones STEAL (3 STL)	79 2.1%	96 97.9%
Q3 - 0:36.0	MEM	Battier Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	79 2.5%	96 97.5%
Q3 - 0:36.0	MEM	Battier Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	79 2.6%	95 97.4%
Q3 - 0:53.0	MEM	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	79 3.0%	94 97.0%
Q3 - 0:55.0	DEN	MISS Anthony 15' Jump Shot	79 3.2%	94 96.8%
Q3 - 1:12	MEM	Burks Running Layup (2 PTS)	79 4.3%	94 95.7%
Q3 - 1:32	DEN	Anthony Driving Dunk (27 PTS)	79 5.1%	92 94.9%
Q3 - 1:41	DEN	Evans REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	77 4.3%	92 95.7%
Q3 - 1:43	MEM	MISS Jones 26' 3PT Jump Shot	77 4.0%	92 96.0%
Q3 - 2:08	DEN	Johnson 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS)	77 4.0%	92 96.0%
Q3 - 2:11	DEN	Elson REBOUND (Off:3 Def:0)	74 2.8%	92 97.2%
Q3 - 2:14	DEN	MISS Eisley 21' Jump Shot	74 2.4%	92 97.6%
Q3 - 2:37	MEM	Gasol Foul Turnover (P2.T10)	74 2.8%	92 97.2%
Q3 - 2:50	DEN	Anthony Dunk (25 PTS) (Eisley 1 AST)	74 2.3%	92 97.7%
Q3 - 2:53	DEN	Johnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	72 1.9%	92 98.1%
Q3 - 2:55	MEM	MISS Miller 25' 3PT Jump Shot	72 1.8%	92 98.2%
Q3 - 3:07	DEN	Anthony Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T11)	72 1.9%	92 98.1%
Q3 - 3:10	MEM	Gasol Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T9)	72 2.2%	92 97.8%
Q3 - 3:26	DEN	Anthony 17' Jump Shot (23 PTS)	72 1.8%	92 98.2%
Q3 - 3:40	MEM	Atkins Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)	70 1.6%	92 98.4%
Q3 - 3:40	MEM	Atkins Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)	70 1.6%	91 98.4%
Q3 - 3:51	DEN	Anthony 20' Jump Shot (21 PTS)	70 1.8%	90 98.2%
Q3 - 4:08	MEM	Atkins Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)	68 1.8%	90 98.2%
Q3 - 4:08	MEM	Atkins Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)	68 1.9%	89 98.1%
Q3 - 4:10	DEN	Miller Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)	68 2.1%	88 97.9%
Q3 - 4:10	DEN	MISS Miller Free Throw 1 of 2	67 2.0%	88 98.0%
Q3 - 4:21	MEM	GRIZZLIES Rebound	67 2.1%	88 97.9%
Q3 - 4:21	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)	67 2.1%	88 97.9%
Q3 - 4:21	MEM	MISS Gasol Free Throw 1 of 2	67 2.2%	87 97.8%
Q3 - 4:36	DEN	Miller Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)	67 2.1%	87 97.9%
Q3 - 4:36	DEN	Miller Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)	66 2.0%	87 98.0%
Q3 - 4:45	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)	65 1.8%	87 98.2%
Q3 - 4:45	MEM	Gasol Tip Shot (15 PTS)	65 1.8%	87 98.2%
Q3 - 4:47	MEM	MISS Battier Layup	65 2.4%	85 97.6%
Q3 - 5:08	DEN	Anthony 19' Jump Shot (19 PTS) (Elson 2 AST)	65 2.4%	85 97.6%
Q3 - 5:29	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 1 of 1 (13 PTS)	63 2.0%	85 98.0%
Q3 - 5:29	MEM	Jones Free Throw Technical (15 PTS)	63 2.0%	84 98.0%
Q3 - 5:48	MEM	Atkins REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	63 3.2%	81 96.8%
Q3 - 5:51	MEM	MISS Atkins 20' Jump Shot	63 3.7%	81 96.3%
Q3 - 6:07	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)	63 3.6%	81 96.4%
Q3 - 6:09	DEN	MISS Anthony 22' Jump Shot	63 3.8%	81 96.2%
Q3 - 6:25	DEN	Evans REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	63 4.3%	81 95.7%
Q3 - 6:27	MEM	MISS Jones 3PT Jump Shot	63 4.1%	81 95.9%
Q3 - 6:38	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	63 3.6%	81 96.4%
Q3 - 6:40	MEM	MISS Miller 28' 3PT Jump Shot	63 4.1%	81 95.9%
Q3 - 6:59	DEN	Anthony 20' Fadeaway Jumper (17 PTS)	63 3.6%	81 96.4%
Q3 - 7:11	MEM	Jones Foul Turnover (P3.T8)	61 3.4%	81 96.6%
Q3 - 7:24	DEN	Anthony 11' Jump Shot (15 PTS)	61 2.9%	81 97.1%
Q3 - 7:40	MEM	Miller 22' Jump Shot (31 PTS) (Atkins 5 AST)	59 2.5%	81 97.5%
Q3 - 7:51	DEN	Jones STEAL (2 STL)	59 2.9%	79 97.1%
Q3 - 8:17	MEM	Gasol Dunk (10 PTS) (Battier 2 AST)	59 3.7%	79 96.3%
Q3 - 8:18	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:3 Def:0)	59 4.2%	77 95.8%
Q3 - 8:20	MEM	MISS Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot	59 4.7%	77 95.3%
Q3 - 8:32	DEN	Nuggets Turnover: Shot Clock (T#9)	59 4.2%	77 95.8%
Q3 - 8:32	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	59 4.9%	77 95.1%
Q3 - 8:32	DEN	MISS Elson 19' Jump Shot	59 4.4%	77 95.6%
Q3 - 9:00	MEM	Miller 26' 3PT Jump Shot (29 PTS) (Battier 1 AST)	59 4.9%	77 95.1%
Q3 - 9:01	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	59 6.9%	74 93.1%
Q3 - 9:04	MEM	MISS Gasol Driving Layup	59 7.6%	74 92.4%
Q3 - 9:17	DEN	Buckner Step Out of Bounds Turnover (P1.T8)	59 6.8%	74 93.2%
Q3 - 9:35	MEM	Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Atkins 4 AST)	59 7.9%	74 92.1%
Q3 - 9:52	DEN	Nuggets Turnover: Shot Clock (T#7)	59 10.2%	71 89.8%
Q3 - 9:52	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	59 11.7%	71 88.3%
Q3 - 9:52	DEN	MISS Anthony 26' 3PT Jump Shot	59 10.6%	71 89.4%
Q3 - 10:20	MEM	Miller 23' Jump Shot (26 PTS)	59 12.3%	71 87.7%
Q3 - 10:37	MEM	Atkins REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	59 13.7%	69 86.3%
Q3 - 10:39	DEN	MISS Anthony 22' Jump Shot	59 14.2%	69 85.8%
Q3 - 10:59	MEM	Gasol Driving Finger Roll (8 PTS)	59 15.6%	69 84.4%
Q3 - 11:16	DEN	Anthony 19' Jump Shot (13 PTS)	59 17.9%	67 82.1%
Q3 - 11:43	MEM	Miller 20' Jump Shot (24 PTS) (Atkins 3 AST)	57 16.1%	67 83.9%
Q2 - 0:00.0	MEM		57 17.9%	65 82.1%
Q2 - 0:00.0	DEN	Buckner 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Miller 5 AST)	57 17.9%	65 82.1%
Q2 - 0:16.0	DEN	Camby REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	54 14.7%	65 85.3%
Q2 - 0:18.0	MEM	MISS Miller 18' Jump Shot	54 14.4%	65 85.6%
Q2 - 0:34.0	DEN	Patterson Dunk (12 PTS) (Camby 3 AST)	54 13.6%	65 86.4%
Q2 - 0:37.0	DEN	Camby REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	52 11.7%	65 88.3%
Q2 - 0:39.0	MEM	MISS Jones 17' Jump Shot	52 11.4%	65 88.6%
Q2 - 1:04	DEN	Miller Layup (8 PTS)	52 11.4%	65 88.6%
Q2 - 1:13	DEN	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	50 9.6%	65 90.4%
Q2 - 1:15	MEM	MISS Miller 25' 3PT Jump Shot	50 9.4%	65 90.6%
Q2 - 1:23	DEN	Jones STEAL (1 STL)	50 9.0%	65 91.0%
Q2 - 1:40	MEM	Miller 26' 3PT Jump Shot (22 PTS)	50 9.6%	65 90.4%
Q2 - 1:55	DEN	Miller Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	50 12.7%	62 87.3%
Q2 - 1:55	DEN	Miller Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	49 12.4%	62 87.6%
Q2 - 2:04	MEM	Miller Free Throw Technical (19 PTS)	48 11.6%	62 88.4%
Q2 - 2:04	MEM	Miller Free Throw 1 of 1 (18 PTS)	48 12.9%	61 87.1%
Q2 - 2:08	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	48 16.1%	58 83.9%
Q2 - 2:10	DEN	Gasol BLOCK (1 BLK)	48 16.6%	58 83.4%
Q2 - 2:29	MEM	Tsakalidis Layup (7 PTS) (Gasol 7 AST)	48 17.7%	58 82.3%
Q2 - 2:53	DEN	Evans 7' Turnaround Jump Shot (8 PTS)	48 19.8%	56 80.2%
Q2 - 3:19	MEM	Atkins 26' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Gasol 6 AST)	46 18.6%	56 81.4%
Q2 - 3:22	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	46 22.2%	53 77.8%
Q2 - 3:24	MEM	MISS Miller 27' 3PT Jump Shot	46 23.9%	53 76.1%
Q2 - 3:28	MEM	Tsakalidis REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	46 22.2%	53 77.8%
Q2 - 3:30	DEN	MISS Camby Alley Oop Layup	46 22.9%	53 77.1%
Q2 - 3:50	MEM	Atkins 20' Jump Shot (9 PTS)	46 24.6%	53 75.4%
Q2 - 4:07	MEM	GRIZZLIES Rebound	46 27.1%	51 72.9%
Q2 - 4:07	DEN	Battier BLOCK (1 BLK)	46 27.8%	51 72.2%
Q2 - 4:23	MEM	Atkins 25' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Gasol 5 AST)	46 29.4%	51 70.6%
Q2 - 4:48	DEN	Camby Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	46 34.4%	48 65.6%
Q2 - 4:48	DEN	MISS Camby Free Throw 1 of 2	45 33.8%	48 66.2%
Q2 - 4:48	DEN	Camby REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	45 34.4%	48 65.6%
Q2 - 4:48	MEM	MISS Atkins 26' 3PT Jump Shot	45 33.6%	48 66.4%
Q2 - 4:49	MEM	Tsakalidis REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	45 31.9%	48 68.1%
Q2 - 4:53	MEM	MISS Warrick Layup	45 33.6%	48 66.4%
Q2 - 5:07	MEM	Miller Free Throw Technical (15 PTS)	45 31.9%	48 68.1%
Q2 - 5:11	DEN	Evans Driving Finger Roll (6 PTS)	45 34.4%	47 65.6%
Q2 - 5:30	MEM	Warrick Free Throw 2 of 2 (3 PTS)	43 32.1%	47 67.9%
Q2 - 5:30	MEM	Warrick Free Throw 1 of 2 (2 PTS)	43 32.8%	46 67.2%
Q2 - 5:45	DEN	Patterson Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)	43 34.4%	45 65.6%
Q2 - 5:45	DEN	Patterson Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)	42 33.6%	45 66.4%
Q2 - 5:46	DEN	Patterson REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	41 32.1%	45 67.9%
Q2 - 5:49	DEN	MISS Miller Driving Layup	41 30.3%	45 69.7%
Q2 - 5:59	MEM	Miller 20' Jump Shot (14 PTS)	41 32.1%	45 67.9%
Q2 - 6:21	DEN	Patterson Alley Oop Layup (8 PTS) (Camby 2 AST)	41 34.4%	43 65.6%
Q2 - 6:34	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	39 32.5%	43 67.5%
Q2 - 6:35	MEM	MISS Burks Layup	39 31.6%	43 68.4%
Q2 - 6:45	DEN	Evans Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	39 29.6%	43 70.4%
Q2 - 6:45	DEN	Evans Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	38 28.8%	43 71.2%
Q2 - 6:53	DEN	Patterson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	37 27.8%	43 72.2%
Q2 - 6:54	DEN	MISS Camby 19' Jump Shot	37 26.0%	43 74.0%
Q2 - 7:18	MEM	Wright Layup (4 PTS) (Jones 1 AST)	37 28.3%	43 71.7%
Q2 - 7:31	MEM	GRIZZLIES Rebound	37 30.3%	41 69.7%
Q2 - 7:31	MEM	MISS Warrick Layup	37 32.0%	41 68.0%
Q2 - 7:42	MEM	GRIZZLIES Rebound	37 30.3%	41 69.7%
Q2 - 7:42	DEN	MISS Eisley Driving Layup	37 31.0%	41 69.0%
Q2 - 7:46	DEN	Najera REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	37 32.7%	41 67.3%
Q2 - 7:50	MEM	MISS Jones 20' Jump Shot	37 32.0%	41 68.0%
Q2 - 8:12	MEM	Wright REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	37 30.2%	41 69.8%
Q2 - 8:14	DEN	MISS Patterson Driving Layup	37 31.0%	41 69.0%
Q2 - 8:35	MEM	Miller 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Burks 2 AST)	37 32.8%	41 67.2%
Q2 - 8:52	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	37 37.2%	38 62.8%
Q2 - 8:54	DEN	MISS Buckner 25' 3PT Jump Shot	37 38.0%	38 62.0%
Q2 - 9:12	MEM	Warrick Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)	37 39.8%	38 60.2%
Q2 - 9:12	MEM	MISS Warrick Free Throw 1 of 2	37 40.5%	37 59.5%
Q2 - 9:16	MEM	Wright REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	37 39.5%	37 60.5%
Q2 - 9:18	DEN	MISS Anthony 16' Jump Shot	37 40.4%	37 59.6%
Q2 - 9:30	MEM	Jones Foul Turnover (P2.T7)	37 42.3%	37 57.7%
Q2 - 9:46	DEN	Buckner Driving Layup (2 PTS) (Anthony 2 AST)	37 39.5%	37 60.5%
Q2 - 9:52	MEM	Miller Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T6)	35 37.4%	37 62.6%
Q2 - 10:07	DEN	Elson Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)	35 34.9%	37 65.1%
Q2 - 10:07	DEN	Elson Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)	34 34.1%	37 65.9%
Q2 - 10:23	MEM	Miller 22' Jump Shot (9 PTS)	33 32.9%	37 67.1%
Q2 - 10:43	DEN	Anthony 15' Fadeaway Jumper (11 PTS)	33 34.9%	35 65.1%
Q2 - 10:59	MEM	Miller 22' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Burks 1 AST)	31 32.9%	35 67.1%
Q2 - 11:15	DEN	Evans Reverse Layup (2 PTS)	31 34.9%	33 65.1%
Q2 - 11:17	DEN	Evans REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	29 32.7%	33 67.3%
Q2 - 11:20	DEN	MISS Buckner 3PT Jump Shot	29 31.2%	33 68.8%
Q2 - 11:35	MEM	Wright Reverse Layup (2 PTS) (Jones 3 AST)	29 32.7%	33 67.3%
Q1 - 0:00.0	DEN		29 34.9%	31 65.1%
Q1 - 0:00.0	MEM	Miller Dunk (5 PTS) (Jones 2 AST)	29 37.1%	31 62.9%
Q1 - 0:02.0	DEN	Wright STEAL (1 STL)	29 39.5%	29 60.5%
Q1 - 0:11.0	MEM	Atkins Foul Turnover (P1.T5)	29 41.3%	29 58.7%
Q1 - 0:30.0	DEN	Elson Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	29 39.5%	29 60.5%
Q1 - 0:30.0	DEN	Elson Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	28 38.7%	29 61.3%
Q1 - 0:37.0	DEN	Evans REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	27 36.8%	29 63.2%
Q1 - 0:40.0	MEM	MISS Jones 3PT Jump Shot	27 36.2%	29 63.8%
Q1 - 0:59.0	DEN	Miller Layup (4 PTS) (Buckner 1 AST)	27 35.1%	29 64.9%
Q1 - 1:03	MEM	Tsakalidis Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T4)	25 32.6%	29 67.4%
Q1 - 1:25	DEN	Miller 6' Jump Bank Shot (2 PTS)	25 30.9%	29 69.1%
Q1 - 1:48	MEM	Jones 14' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Gasol 4 AST)	23 28.5%	29 71.5%
Q1 - 2:05	DEN	Anthony 15' Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Miller 4 AST)	23 31.0%	27 69.0%
Q1 - 2:26	MEM	Atkins 20' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	21 28.9%	27 71.1%
Q1 - 2:32	MEM	Atkins REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	21 31.0%	25 69.0%
Q1 - 2:33	DEN	MISS Camby 19' Jump Shot	21 31.6%	25 68.4%
Q1 - 2:50	MEM	Gasol 8' Running Hook Shot (6 PTS)	21 32.9%	25 67.1%
Q1 - 3:11	DEN	Patterson Dunk (6 PTS) (Anthony 1 AST)	21 35.0%	23 65.0%
Q1 - 3:15	MEM	Miller Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T3)	19 33.2%	23 66.8%
Q1 - 3:36	DEN	Camby 19' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Miller 3 AST)	19 31.0%	23 69.0%
Q1 - 3:45	DEN	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	17 29.3%	23 70.7%
Q1 - 3:48	MEM	MISS Atkins 21' Jump Shot	17 28.7%	23 71.3%
Q1 - 4:13	DEN	Patterson 5' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Elson 1 AST)	17 27.3%	23 72.7%
Q1 - 4:27	MEM	Jones 19' Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Gasol 3 AST)	15 26.0%	23 74.0%
Q1 - 4:52	DEN	Elson Dunk (4 PTS) (Miller 2 AST)	15 27.3%	21 72.7%
Q1 - 5:15	MEM	Jones Driving Layup (7 PTS)	13 26.3%	21 73.7%
Q1 - 5:41	DEN	Anthony Layup (7 PTS) (Miller 1 AST)	13 27.7%	19 72.3%
Q1 - 5:58	MEM	Jones Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	11 26.3%	19 73.7%
Q1 - 5:58	MEM	Jones Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)	11 26.5%	18 73.5%
Q1 - 6:02	DEN	Tsakalidis STEAL (1 STL)	11 28.1%	17 71.9%
Q1 - 6:12	MEM	Atkins Reverse Layup (2 PTS)	11 29.8%	17 70.2%
Q1 - 6:16	DEN	Atkins STEAL (2 STL)	11 31.5%	15 68.5%
Q1 - 6:25	MEM	Tsakalidis Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	11 33.3%	15 66.7%
Q1 - 6:25	MEM	MISS Tsakalidis Free Throw 1 of 2	11 33.8%	14 66.2%
Q1 - 6:37	DEN	Patterson Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	11 33.2%	14 66.8%
Q1 - 6:37	DEN	Patterson Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	10 32.6%	14 67.4%
Q1 - 6:50	MEM	Gasol 6' Turnaround Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Atkins 1 AST)	9 31.6%	14 68.4%
Q1 - 7:08	MEM	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	9 33.5%	12 66.5%
Q1 - 7:11	DEN	MISS Anthony Reverse Layup	9 34.0%	12 66.0%
Q1 - 7:22	MEM	Jones 26' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Gasol 2 AST)	9 35.4%	12 64.6%
Q1 - 7:47	MEM	GRIZZLIES Rebound	9 38.7%	9 61.3%
Q1 - 7:47	DEN	MISS Patterson Driving Layup	9 39.3%	9 60.7%
Q1 - 7:51	DEN	Patterson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	9 40.7%	9 59.3%
Q1 - 7:53	MEM	MISS Jones 22' Jump Shot	9 40.1%	9 59.9%
Q1 - 7:59	MEM	Atkins REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	9 38.7%	9 61.3%
Q1 - 8:02	DEN	MISS Camby Alley Oop Layup	9 39.5%	9 60.5%
Q1 - 8:16	MEM	Miller 27' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Gasol 1 AST)	9 40.9%	9 59.1%
Q1 - 8:39	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 1 of 1 (5 PTS)	9 44.3%	6 55.7%
Q1 - 8:51	MEM	Jones Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T2)	6 40.9%	6 59.1%
Q1 - 8:55	DEN	Jones STEAL (1 STL)	6 38.8%	6 61.2%
Q1 - 9:05	MEM	Tsakalidis Reverse Layup (4 PTS) (Jones 1 AST)	6 40.8%	6 59.2%
Q1 - 9:22	MEM	Atkins REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	6 42.1%	4 57.9%
Q1 - 9:24	DEN	MISS Anthony 14' Jump Shot	6 42.9%	4 57.1%
Q1 - 9:38	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	6 44.5%	4 55.5%
Q1 - 9:38	MEM	MISS Atkins 16' Jump Shot	6 43.8%	4 56.2%
Q1 - 9:44	DEN	Atkins STEAL (1 STL)	6 42.2%	4 57.8%
Q1 - 10:03	MEM	Gasol Dunk (2 PTS)	6 44.2%	4 55.8%
Q1 - 10:04	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	6 45.9%	2 54.1%
Q1 - 10:06	MEM	MISS Battier 3PT Jump Shot	6 47.3%	2 52.7%
Q1 - 10:20	MEM	Tsakalidis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	6 45.8%	2 54.2%
Q1 - 10:21	DEN	MISS Elson Free Throw 1 of 1	6 46.1%	2 53.9%
Q1 - 10:21	DEN	Elson REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	4 44.2%	2 55.8%
Q1 - 10:23	DEN	MISS Camby 15' Jump Shot	4 42.8%	2 57.2%
Q1 - 10:39	MEM	Tsakalidis Layup (2 PTS)	4 44.3%	2 55.7%
Q1 - 10:40	MEM	Tsakalidis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	4 45.8%	0 54.2%
Q1 - 10:42	MEM	MISS Jones 15' Jump Shot	4 47.3%	0 52.7%
Q1 - 10:53	DEN	Anthony 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Camby 1 AST)	4 45.8%	0 54.2%
Q1 - 11:04	DEN	Elson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	2 43.9%	0 56.1%
Q1 - 11:06	DEN	MISS Miller 15' Jump Shot	2 42.8%	0 57.2%
Q1 - 11:24	MEM	Battier Foul Turnover (P1.T1)	2 43.9%	0 56.1%
Q1 - 11:43	DEN	Camby Driving Dunk (2 PTS)	2 42.2%	0 57.8%
Q1 - 12:00	MEM	Jump Ball Gasol vs. Camby: Tip to Patterson	0 40.4%	0 59.6%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.23 61.4%

MEM

1.32 65.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

63%

MEM

75%

Midrange

DEN

58%

MEM

56%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

6.0

31%

46%

MEM

13.5

38%

56%

Free Throws

DEN

88%

MEM

85%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
C. Anthony	33	66%	16.5 / 25
R. Patterson	17	65%	8.5 / 13
A. Miller	13	65%	6.5 / 10
F. Elson	10	83%	5.0 / 6
R. Evans	10	100%	5.0 / 5
D. Johnson	9	90%	4.5 / 5
M. Camby	5	31%	2.5 / 8
G. Buckner	5	42%	2.5 / 6
H. Eisley	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Grizzlies

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
M. Miller	41	82%	20.5 / 25
P. Gasol	18	82%	9.0 / 11
E. Jones	17	61%	8.5 / 14
C. Atkins	16	67%	8.0 / 12
J. Tsakalidis	11	92%	5.5 / 6
S. Battier	4	50%	2.0 / 4
L. Wright	4	100%	2.0 / 2
H. Warrick	3	38%	1.5 / 4
A. Burks	2	25%	1.0 / 4
D. Jones	0	-	0.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

-15

MEM

+14

-16

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.23 61.4%

MEM

1.32 65.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	105.6 105.9	DEN 114.6 MEM 128.9 +14.3
Pace	93.9 86.4	DEN 98.5 +15.6 MEM 82.9
Avg. Poss. Time	14.7 17.3	DEN 14.6 +2.8 MEM 17.4
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	48.8% 49.6%	DEN 58.0% MEM 62.0% +4.0%
TO %	15.1% 14.8%	DEN 17.5% MEM 15.6% +1.9%
ORB %	26.9% 25.8%	DEN 22.2% MEM 36.7% +14.5%
FTrt	34.7 33.9	DEN 36.2 +0.2 MEM 36.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	62.4% 57.8%	DEN 55.3% +0.5% MEM 54.8%
STL %	8.9% 8.4%	DEN 7.9% MEM 8.9% +1.0%
BLK %	8.8% 8.9%	DEN 2.0% MEM 5.4% +3.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	52.3% 51.9%	DEN 61.4% MEM 65.9% +4.5%
Rim FG%	59.2% 57.0%	DEN 63.3% MEM 75.0% +11.7%
Mid FG%	39.7% 37.2%	DEN 57.7% +2.1% MEM 55.6%
3P %	32.5% 37.4%	DEN 30.8% MEM 37.5% +6.7%
FT %	74.4% 71.1%	DEN 88.0% +2.8% MEM 85.2%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	38.8% 38.4%	DEN 43.5% +11.5% MEM 32.0%
Mid Att. %	45.1% 35.9%	DEN 37.7% MEM 36.0% +1.7%
3P Att. %	16.1% 25.8%	DEN 18.8% MEM 32.0% +13.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	DEN	MEM
Possessions	89	90
Possession Minutes	21.7	26.1
Points	102	116
Rebounds	25	32
Assists	21	23
Steals	7	8
Blocks	1	3
Turnovers (Team)	15 (2)	16 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	6 (2)	11 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	19 (2)	21 (3)
Field Goals	38-69	42-75
At-the-Rim FG	19-30	18-24
Midrange FG	15-26	15-27
2-Point FG	34-56	33-51
3-Point FG	4-13	9-24
Free Throws	22-25	23-27
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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8 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Carmelo Anthony F · 6'8" 240 · 22	41.4	33	66%	2	2	2	1	3	0	0	2	1-1	100%	16-22	73%	0-3	0%
Andre Miller G · 6'3" 200 · 30	35.6	13	65%	3	6	1	0	5	5	0	3	7-8	88%	3-6	50%	0-0	-
Ruben Patterson G · 6'5" 223 · 31	31.8	17	65%	4	1	1	0	1	3	2	2	7-7	100%	5-10	50%	0-0	-
Francisco Elson F · 7'0" 240 · 30	31.1	10	83%	4	2	0	0	1	4	3	1	4-5	80%	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Marcus Camby C · 6'11" 240 · 32	17.9	5	31%	3	3	0	0	1	2	0	3	1-2	50%	2-7	29%	0-0	-
Reggie Evans C-F · 6'8" 245 · 26	27.6	10	100%	7	0	1	0	1	5	1	6	2-2	100%	4-4	100%	0-0	-
Greg Buckner G · 6'4" 210 · 29	22.7	5	42%	0	2	0	0	1	2	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-5	20%
DerMarr Johnson F-G · 6'9" 210 · 26	15.4	9	90%	1	0	2	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	3-5	60%
Howard Eisley G · 6'2" 185 · 33	14.3	0	0%	0	4	0	0	1	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Eduardo Najera F · 6'8" 235 · 30	2.0	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Julius Hodge G · 6'7" 220 · 22	0.5	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Linas Kleiza F · 6'8" 234 · 21
Earl Boykins #11 · G · 5'5" 133 · 30	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Kenyon Martin #6 · F · 6'9" 225 · 28	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Nene Hilario #31 · C-F · 6'11" 250 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	102	61%	25	21	7	1	15	0	6	19	22-25	88%	34-56	61%	4-13	31%

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8 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Carmelo Anthony F · 6'8" 240 · 22	41.4	33	66%	2	2	2	1	3	0	0	2	1-1	100%	16-22	73%	0-3	0%
Andre Miller G · 6'3" 200 · 30	35.6	13	65%	3	6	1	0	5	5	0	3	7-8	88%	3-6	50%	0-0	-
Ruben Patterson G · 6'5" 223 · 31	31.8	17	65%	4	1	1	0	1	3	2	2	7-7	100%	5-10	50%	0-0	-
Francisco Elson F · 7'0" 240 · 30	31.1	10	83%	4	2	0	0	1	4	3	1	4-5	80%	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Marcus Camby C · 6'11" 240 · 32	17.9	5	31%	3	3	0	0	1	2	0	3	1-2	50%	2-7	29%	0-0	-
Reggie Evans C-F · 6'8" 245 · 26	27.6	10	100%	7	0	1	0	1	5	1	6	2-2	100%	4-4	100%	0-0	-
Greg Buckner G · 6'4" 210 · 29	22.7	5	42%	0	2	0	0	1	2	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-5	20%
DerMarr Johnson F-G · 6'9" 210 · 26	15.4	9	90%	1	0	2	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	3-5	60%
Howard Eisley G · 6'2" 185 · 33	14.3	0	0%	0	4	0	0	1	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Eduardo Najera F · 6'8" 235 · 30	2.0	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Julius Hodge G · 6'7" 220 · 22	0.5	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Linas Kleiza F · 6'8" 234 · 21
Earl Boykins #11 · G · 5'5" 133 · 30	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Kenyon Martin #6 · F · 6'9" 225 · 28	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Nene Hilario #31 · C-F · 6'11" 250 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	102	61%	25	21	7	1	15	0	6	19	22-25	88%	34-56	61%	4-13	31%

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14 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Eddie Jones G · 6'6" 200 · 34	37.7	17	61%	1	5	3	0	4	4	0	1	3-3	100%	4-7	57%	2-6	33%
Pau Gasol F · 7'0" 250 · 26	35.5	18	82%	4	7	0	1	5	3	3	1	2-3	67%	8-10	80%	0-0	-
Chucky Atkins G · 5'11" 185 · 32	34.0	16	67%	8	6	2	0	2	2	1	7	4-4	100%	3-6	50%	2-4	50%
Shane Battier F · 6'8" 220 · 28	25.0	4	50%	6	2	0	1	1	3	4	2	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Jake Tsakalidis C · 7'2" 290 · 27	24.0	11	92%	5	0	1	1	1	5	3	2	3-5	60%	4-4	100%	0-0	-
Mike Miller G-F · 6'8" 218 · 26	41.2	41	82%	4	0	0	0	2	1	0	4	6-6	100%	10-12	83%	5-12	42%
Antonio Burks G · 6'0" 195 · 26	14.0	2	25%	1	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-1	0%
Dahntay Jones G-F · 6'6" 225 · 25	12.5	0	0%	1	1	1	0	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Hakim Warrick F · 6'9" 219 · 24	8.2	3	38%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3-4	75%	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Lorenzen Wright F-C · 6'11" 255 · 30	7.0	4	100%	2	0	1	0	0	3	0	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Anthony Roberson G · 6'2" 180 · 23	0.5	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Lawrence Roberts F · 6'9" 240 · 23	0.5	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Brian Cardinal #35 · F · 6'8" 240 · 29	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Bobby Jackson #24 · G · 6'1" 185 · 33	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Damon Stoudamire #20 · G · 5'10" 171 · 33	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	116	66%	32	23	8	3	16	0	11	21	23-27	85%	33-51	65%	9-24	38%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE