FinalWin Prob.pScore
246%93
101
454%94
94
ORTG#PossPace
SAS logo SAS
108.69389.0
MIA logo MIA
98.99599.4

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

HeatSpursQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

HeatSpursQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventSASMIA
Q4 - 0:00.0MIA101
100%
94
0%
Q4 - 0:04.0MIAMISS Wade 24' 3PT Jump Shot100
99.9%
94
0.1%
Q4 - 0:07.0SASBowen Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)100
99.8%
94
0.2%
Q4 - 0:07.0SASMISS Bowen Free Throw 1 of 299
99.7%
94
0.3%
Q4 - 0:13.0MIAWade 24' 3PT Jump Shot (36 PTS)99
99.6%
94
0.4%
Q4 - 0:22.0SASFinley Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)99
99.8%
91
0.2%
Q4 - 0:22.0SASFinley Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)98
99.8%
91
0.2%
Q4 - 0:31.0MIAO'Neal Free Throw 2 of 2 (23 PTS)97
99.5%
91
0.5%
Q4 - 0:31.0MIAMISS O'Neal Free Throw 1 of 297
99.6%
90
0.4%
Q4 - 0:38.0SASParker 21' Jump Shot (38 PTS)97
99.0%
90
1.0%
Q4 - 0:56.0SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:9)95
96.8%
90
3.2%
Q4 - 0:58.0MIAMISS Payton 3PT Jump Shot95
96.0%
90
4.0%
Q4 - 1:09SASBarry 25' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Parker 5 AST)95
92.4%
90
7.6%
Q4 - 1:18SASBarry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)92
79.0%
90
21.0%
Q4 - 1:20MIAMISS Wade Driving Layup92
75.4%
90
24.6%
Q4 - 1:26MIAWalker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)92
65.8%
90
34.2%
Q4 - 1:27SASMISS Duncan Layup92
69.8%
90
30.2%
Q4 - 1:42MIAWade 6' Jump Shot (33 PTS)92
76.3%
90
23.7%
Q4 - 1:55SASNesterovic 5' Hook Shot (6 PTS) (Bowen 2 AST)92
83.0%
88
17.0%
Q4 - 2:12MIAWade Tip Shot (31 PTS)90
76.8%
88
23.2%
Q4 - 2:14MIAWade REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)90
81.1%
86
18.9%
Q4 - 2:16MIAMISS Wade 7' Jump Shot90
87.4%
86
12.6%
Q4 - 2:29MIAO'Neal REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)90
80.9%
86
19.1%
Q4 - 2:30SASMISS Bowen 25' 3PT Jump Shot90
84.1%
86
15.9%
Q4 - 2:37MIAWilliams Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T15)90
89.5%
86
10.5%
Q4 - 2:52SASParker 20' Jump Shot (36 PTS)90
78.9%
86
21.1%
Q4 - 3:08SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:8)88
74.2%
86
25.8%
Q4 - 3:10MIAMISS Wade 20' Jump Shot88
70.6%
86
29.4%
Q4 - 3:23SASBowen Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)88
61.0%
86
39.0%
Q4 - 3:23SASBowen Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)87
57.6%
86
42.4%
Q4 - 3:24SASBowen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)86
55.4%
86
44.6%
Q4 - 3:25SASMISS Bowen Driving Layup86
44.4%
86
55.6%
Q4 - 3:43SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:7)86
52.0%
86
48.0%
Q4 - 3:45MIAMISS Payton 20' Jump Shot86
49.0%
86
51.0%
Q4 - 4:09SASParker Free Throw 2 of 2 (34 PTS)86
42.2%
86
57.8%
Q4 - 4:09SASMISS Parker Free Throw 1 of 285
39.6%
86
60.4%
Q4 - 4:18SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)85
42.7%
86
57.3%
Q4 - 4:19MIAMISS O'Neal Free Throw 1 of 185
41.4%
86
58.6%
Q4 - 4:41SASParker 18' Jump Shot (33 PTS)85
51.6%
84
48.4%
Q4 - 4:56SASNesterovic REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)83
42.6%
84
57.4%
Q4 - 4:58MIAMISS Wade Driving Layup83
39.6%
84
60.4%
Q4 - 5:16SASBarry 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Parker 4 AST)83
34.6%
84
65.4%
Q4 - 5:34MIAWade 20' Jump Shot (29 PTS) (Walker 1 AST)80
21.5%
84
78.5%
Q4 - 5:52SASBowen 20' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Barry 1 AST)80
27.4%
82
72.6%
Q4 - 5:57SASSpurs Rebound78
21.5%
82
78.5%
Q4 - 5:58SASO'Neal BLOCK (3 BLK)78
17.6%
82
82.4%
Q4 - 6:11MIAO'Neal 5' Jump Shot (20 PTS)78
23.6%
82
76.4%
Q4 - 6:23MIAWilliams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)78
28.5%
80
71.5%
Q4 - 6:25SASMISS Nesterovic 22' Jump Shot78
30.7%
80
69.3%
Q4 - 6:49MIAWalker Driving Layup (12 PTS) (O'Neal 1 AST)78
36.0%
80
64.0%
Q4 - 7:08MIAPosey REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7)78
43.0%
78
57.0%
Q4 - 7:10SASMISS Van Exel 24' 3PT Jump Shot78
45.3%
78
54.7%
Q4 - 7:27SASNesterovic REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)78
50.7%
78
49.3%
Q4 - 7:29MIAMISS Walker 25' 3PT Jump Shot78
48.3%
78
51.7%
Q4 - 7:36MIAO'Neal REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)78
42.9%
78
57.1%
Q4 - 7:38SASMISS Finley 14' Fadeaway Jumper78
45.3%
78
54.7%
Q4 - 7:54MIAO'Neal 4' Jump Shot (18 PTS)78
50.7%
78
49.3%
Q4 - 8:09MIAPosey REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)78
56.1%
76
43.9%
Q4 - 8:10SASMISS Finley 25' 3PT Jump Shot78
58.1%
76
41.9%
Q4 - 8:28SASVan Exel REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)78
62.4%
76
37.6%
Q4 - 8:29MIAMISS O'Neal 13' Jump Shot78
60.6%
76
39.4%
Q4 - 8:42MIAO'Neal REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)78
56.2%
76
43.8%
Q4 - 8:45MIAMISS Williams Driving Layup78
60.6%
76
39.4%
Q4 - 9:01SASNesterovic 9' Hook Shot (4 PTS)78
55.4%
76
44.6%
Q4 - 9:24MIAO'Neal 8' Hook Shot (16 PTS)76
49.8%
76
50.2%
Q4 - 9:40MIAHEAT Rebound76
55.5%
74
44.5%
Q4 - 9:42SASMISS Finley 24' 3PT Jump Shot76
57.4%
74
42.6%
Q4 - 9:54MIAWilliams Free Throw 1 of 1 (18 PTS)76
61.6%
74
38.4%
Q4 - 10:04SASDuncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)76
70.4%
71
29.6%
Q4 - 10:04SASDuncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)75
69.1%
71
30.9%
Q4 - 10:04SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)74
65.9%
71
34.1%
Q4 - 10:05SASMISS Marks 22' Jump Shot74
62.0%
71
38.0%
Q4 - 10:26MIAWalker 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Posey 1 AST)74
66.0%
71
34.0%
Q4 - 10:36SASWade STEAL (3 STL)74
75.0%
68
25.0%
Q4 - 11:01MIAWalker 8' Hook Shot (7 PTS)74
77.9%
68
22.1%
Q4 - 11:17MIAPosey REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)74
81.3%
66
18.7%
Q4 - 11:18SASSpurs Rebound74
84.5%
66
15.5%
Q4 - 11:18SASMISS Duncan Free Throw 2 of 274
81.8%
66
18.2%
Q4 - 11:18SASMISS Duncan Free Throw 1 of 274
83.6%
66
16.4%
Q4 - 11:38SASMarks REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)74
84.6%
66
15.4%
Q4 - 11:40MIAMISS Mourning 7' Hook Shot74
83.6%
66
16.4%
Q3 - 0:00.0SAS74
81.4%
66
18.6%
Q3 - 0:00.0MIAWade 19' Jump Shot (27 PTS)74
84.6%
66
15.4%
Q3 - 0:25.0SASMarks Free Throw 2 of 2 (3 PTS)74
85.9%
64
14.1%
Q3 - 0:25.0SASMISS Marks Free Throw 1 of 273
85.3%
64
14.7%
Q3 - 0:25.0SASSpurs Rebound73
85.9%
64
14.1%
Q3 - 0:25.0MIAMISS Wade Reverse Layup73
85.1%
64
14.9%
Q3 - 0:45.0SASParker Free Throw 2 of 2 (31 PTS)73
83.3%
64
16.7%
Q3 - 0:45.0SASParker Free Throw 1 of 2 (30 PTS)72
82.4%
64
17.6%
Q3 - 1:01MIAMourning Layup (2 PTS) (Wade 1 AST)71
78.9%
64
21.1%
Q3 - 1:22SASParker 22' Jump Shot (29 PTS)71
81.9%
62
18.1%
Q3 - 1:42MIAWade Driving Layup (25 PTS)69
79.0%
62
21.0%
Q3 - 1:50MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)69
82.0%
60
18.0%
Q3 - 1:52SASMISS Barry 25' 3PT Jump Shot69
82.9%
60
17.1%
Q3 - 2:10SASBarry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)69
83.3%
60
16.7%
Q3 - 2:12MIAMISS Williams Free Throw 1 of 169
82.9%
60
17.1%
Q3 - 2:27SASParker 24' 3PT Jump Shot (27 PTS) (Bowen 1 AST)69
85.6%
58
14.4%
Q3 - 2:46SASBarry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)66
80.6%
58
19.4%
Q3 - 2:48MIAMISS Walker 24' 3PT Jump Shot66
79.7%
58
20.3%
Q3 - 2:57MIAWilliams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)66
77.3%
58
22.7%
Q3 - 2:59SASMISS Oberto 8' Jump Shot66
78.4%
58
21.6%
Q3 - 3:01SASOberto REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)66
79.7%
58
20.3%
Q3 - 3:03SASMourning BLOCK (1 BLK)66
77.5%
58
22.5%
Q3 - 3:27MIAWade 6' Turnaround Jump Shot (23 PTS) (Williams 3 AST)66
79.7%
58
20.3%
Q3 - 3:40SASMarks 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Parker 3 AST)66
82.3%
56
17.7%
Q3 - 3:55MIAWade Free Throw 2 of 2 (21 PTS)64
79.7%
56
20.3%
Q3 - 3:55MIAWade Free Throw 1 of 2 (20 PTS)64
80.3%
55
19.7%
Q3 - 4:11SASParker Free Throw 2 of 2 (24 PTS)64
81.0%
54
19.0%
Q3 - 4:11SASParker Free Throw 1 of 2 (23 PTS)63
80.3%
54
19.7%
Q3 - 4:14SASParker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)62
78.7%
54
21.3%
Q3 - 4:16MIAMISS Walker 24' 3PT Jump Shot62
77.7%
54
22.3%
Q3 - 4:37MIAO'Neal REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)62
75.3%
54
24.7%
Q3 - 4:38SASMISS Bowen 24' 3PT Jump Shot62
76.4%
54
23.6%
Q3 - 4:40SASParker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)62
78.8%
54
21.2%
Q3 - 4:41SASO'Neal BLOCK (2 BLK)62
76.4%
54
23.6%
Q3 - 5:03SASBowen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)62
77.7%
54
22.3%
Q3 - 5:05MIAMISS Williams 24' 3PT Jump Shot62
76.7%
54
23.3%
Q3 - 5:29SASBowen 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Parker 2 AST)62
74.5%
54
25.5%
Q3 - 5:46SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)59
68.0%
54
32.0%
Q3 - 5:48MIAMISS O'Neal Free Throw 2 of 259
67.4%
54
32.6%
Q3 - 5:48MIAMISS O'Neal Free Throw 1 of 259
65.9%
54
34.1%
Q3 - 6:02SASDuncan Foul Turnover (P2.T13)59
63.0%
54
37.0%
Q3 - 6:15SASFinley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)59
67.0%
54
33.0%
Q3 - 6:18MIAMISS Wade 8' Jump Shot59
65.8%
54
34.2%
Q3 - 6:38MIAPosey REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)59
63.1%
54
36.9%
Q3 - 6:39SASMISS Duncan Free Throw 2 of 259
63.7%
54
36.3%
Q3 - 6:39SASDuncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)59
65.8%
54
34.2%
Q3 - 6:39SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)58
63.4%
54
36.6%
Q3 - 6:41SASMISS Parker Driving Layup58
60.6%
54
39.4%
Q3 - 7:05MIAO'Neal Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)58
62.5%
54
37.5%
Q3 - 7:05MIAO'Neal Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)58
64.1%
53
35.9%
Q3 - 7:18MIAHEAT Rebound58
65.6%
52
34.4%
Q3 - 7:18SASMISS Parker 20' Jump Shot58
66.8%
52
33.2%
Q3 - 7:28SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)58
69.5%
52
30.5%
Q3 - 7:30MIAMISS Haslem 16' Jump Shot58
68.4%
52
31.6%
Q3 - 7:36MIAPosey REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)58
65.6%
52
34.4%
Q3 - 7:38SASMISS Duncan 14' Fadeaway Jumper58
66.9%
52
33.1%
Q3 - 8:00MIAO'Neal Free Throw 1 of 1 (12 PTS)58
69.6%
52
30.4%
Q3 - 8:17SASParker Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T12)58
74.8%
49
25.2%
Q3 - 8:24MIAWade Driving Layup (19 PTS)58
77.9%
49
22.1%
Q3 - 8:29SASWade STEAL (2 STL)58
80.1%
47
19.9%
Q3 - 8:46MIAWilliams Layup (13 PTS)58
82.7%
47
17.3%
Q3 - 8:59SASGinobili Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T10)58
84.5%
45
15.5%
Q3 - 9:18MIAO'Neal Slam Dunk (9 PTS) (Haslem 2 AST)58
85.6%
45
14.4%
Q3 - 9:31SASGinobili Free Throw 3 of 3 (8 PTS)58
87.3%
43
12.7%
Q3 - 9:31SASMISS Ginobili Free Throw 2 of 357
87.0%
43
13.0%
Q3 - 9:31SASGinobili Free Throw 1 of 3 (7 PTS)57
88.2%
43
11.8%
Q3 - 9:52MIAWilliams 20' Jump Shot (11 PTS)56
85.6%
43
14.4%
Q3 - 10:11SASBowen 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Ginobili 5 AST)56
86.4%
41
13.6%
Q3 - 10:25SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)54
84.9%
41
15.1%
Q3 - 10:27MIAMISS O'Neal 6' Hook Shot54
84.3%
41
15.7%
Q3 - 10:41SASGinobili 25' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS)54
82.8%
41
17.2%
Q3 - 10:49MIAO'Neal Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)51
78.6%
41
21.4%
Q3 - 10:49MIAMISS O'Neal Free Throw 1 of 251
79.6%
40
20.4%
Q3 - 11:03SASParker Driving Layup (22 PTS)51
77.7%
40
22.3%
Q3 - 11:22MIAHaslem 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS)49
75.3%
40
24.7%
Q3 - 11:33MIAHEAT Rebound49
77.7%
38
22.3%
Q3 - 11:33MIAMISS Posey Driving Layup49
79.4%
38
20.6%
Q3 - 11:49SASParker Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T9)49
77.7%
38
22.3%
Q2 - 0:00.0MIA49
80.2%
38
19.8%
Q2 - 0:01.0MIAWalker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)49
77.1%
38
22.9%
Q2 - 0:02.0SASMISS Duncan Free Throw 2 of 249
77.4%
38
22.6%
Q2 - 0:02.0SASMISS Duncan Free Throw 1 of 249
78.8%
38
21.2%
Q2 - 0:16.0MIAWade 6' Jump Shot (17 PTS)49
78.8%
38
21.2%
Q2 - 0:17.0MIAWade REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)49
81.5%
36
18.5%
Q2 - 0:19.0MIAMISS Wade 12' Jump Shot49
82.5%
36
17.5%
Q2 - 0:23.0MIAHEAT Rebound49
81.5%
36
18.5%
Q2 - 0:24.0MIAMISS Wade Reverse Layup49
82.5%
36
17.5%
Q2 - 0:40.0SASOberto Layup (4 PTS)49
81.5%
36
18.5%
Q2 - 0:41.0SASOberto REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)47
78.8%
36
21.2%
Q2 - 0:42.0SASMISS Finley 3PT Jump Shot47
77.7%
36
22.3%
Q2 - 0:59.0MIAWade Free Throw 2 of 2 (15 PTS)47
78.9%
36
21.1%
Q2 - 0:59.0MIAWade Free Throw 1 of 2 (14 PTS)47
79.3%
35
20.7%
Q2 - 1:09MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)47
81.0%
34
19.0%
Q2 - 1:10SASMISS Duncan Free Throw 2 of 247
81.1%
34
18.9%
Q2 - 1:10SASMISS Duncan Free Throw 1 of 247
82.3%
34
17.7%
Q2 - 1:23SASFinley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)47
82.0%
34
18.0%
Q2 - 1:25MIAMISS Wade 13' Jump Bank Shot47
81.7%
34
18.3%
Q2 - 1:42SASParker 22' Jump Shot (20 PTS) (Ginobili 4 AST)47
81.0%
34
19.0%
Q2 - 1:54SASFinley Free Throw Technical (3 PTS)45
77.9%
34
22.1%
Q2 - 1:54MIAWade Traveling Turnover (P5.T14)44
75.6%
34
24.4%
Q2 - 2:05SASGinobili Driving Layup (3 PTS)44
72.9%
34
27.1%
Q2 - 2:19SASSpurs Rebound42
70.3%
34
29.7%
Q2 - 2:21MIAMISS Haslem Driving Layup42
69.5%
34
30.5%
Q2 - 2:36SASParker Free Throw 2 of 2 (18 PTS)42
67.9%
34
32.1%
Q2 - 2:36SASParker Free Throw 1 of 2 (17 PTS)41
67.1%
34
32.9%
Q2 - 2:45MIAWade Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T13)40
64.8%
34
35.2%
Q2 - 2:58SASParker Free Throw 1 of 1 (16 PTS)40
62.2%
34
37.8%
Q2 - 3:10MIAWade Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T12)37
55.6%
34
44.4%
Q2 - 3:30SASParker 18' Jump Shot (13 PTS)37
52.3%
34
47.7%
Q2 - 3:47MIAWade Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS)35
49.7%
34
50.3%
Q2 - 3:47MIAWade Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)35
50.2%
33
49.8%
Q2 - 3:52MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)35
52.3%
32
47.7%
Q2 - 3:54SASMISS Bowen 14' Jump Shot35
53.3%
32
46.7%
Q2 - 4:07SASSpurs Rebound35
54.9%
32
45.1%
Q2 - 4:07SASMISS Oberto 18' Jump Shot35
53.0%
32
47.0%
Q2 - 4:29MIAPayton Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)35
55.0%
32
45.0%
Q2 - 4:29MIAMISS Payton Free Throw 1 of 235
55.6%
31
44.4%
Q2 - 4:29SASBowen Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T8)35
55.0%
31
45.0%
Q2 - 4:43MIAO'Neal Foul Turnover (P3.T11)35
57.8%
31
42.2%
Q2 - 5:10SASDuncan Dunk (11 PTS) (Van Exel 1 AST)35
54.6%
31
45.4%
Q2 - 5:17SASFinley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)33
52.1%
31
47.9%
Q2 - 5:19MIAMISS O'Neal 8' Hook Shot33
51.1%
31
48.9%
Q2 - 5:37SASVan Exel 25' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS)33
49.0%
31
51.0%
Q2 - 6:02MIAWilliams 24' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS)30
43.9%
31
56.1%
Q2 - 6:08MIAWalker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)30
48.7%
28
51.3%
Q2 - 6:10SASMISS Van Exel 25' 3PT Jump Shot30
49.8%
28
50.2%
Q2 - 6:14SASNesterovic REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)30
52.1%
28
47.9%
Q2 - 6:16MIAMISS Payton Driving Finger Roll30
51.1%
28
48.9%
Q2 - 6:23MIAWalker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)30
48.8%
28
51.2%
Q2 - 6:25SASMISS Finley 24' 3PT Jump Shot30
49.8%
28
50.2%
Q2 - 6:43MIAWilliams Driving Layup (6 PTS)30
52.1%
28
47.9%
Q2 - 7:00SASVan Exel 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Duncan 1 AST)30
54.3%
26
45.7%
Q2 - 7:18MIAWilliams Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T10)27
49.0%
26
51.0%
Q2 - 7:32SASDuncan 4' Hook Shot (9 PTS)27
46.2%
26
53.8%
Q2 - 7:50SASOberto REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)25
43.8%
26
56.2%
Q2 - 7:52MIAMISS Williams 24' 3PT Jump Shot25
42.9%
26
57.1%
Q2 - 7:59SASPayton STEAL (1 STL)25
41.0%
26
59.0%
Q2 - 8:07MIAWalker Layup (5 PTS) (Mourning 1 AST)25
43.7%
26
56.3%
Q2 - 8:08MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)25
45.9%
24
54.1%
Q2 - 8:09MIAMISS Wade Layup25
48.0%
24
52.0%
Q2 - 8:35SASOberto Layup (2 PTS) (Ginobili 3 AST)25
46.0%
24
54.0%
Q2 - 8:46SASVan Exel REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)23
43.7%
24
56.3%
Q2 - 8:48MIAMISS Mourning 19' Jump Shot23
42.8%
24
57.2%
Q2 - 9:02MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)23
40.9%
24
59.1%
Q2 - 9:04SASMISS Ginobili Free Throw 2 of 223
41.2%
24
58.8%
Q2 - 9:04SASGinobili Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)23
42.9%
24
57.1%
Q2 - 9:18MIAWalker Driving Layup (3 PTS) (Williams 2 AST)22
41.2%
24
58.8%
Q2 - 9:24SASMourning STEAL (1 STL)22
43.3%
22
56.7%
Q2 - 9:36MIAWade Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)22
46.1%
22
53.9%
Q2 - 9:36MIAMISS Wade Free Throw 1 of 222
46.6%
21
53.4%
Q2 - 9:51SASOberto Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T5)22
45.8%
21
54.2%
Q2 - 10:05SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)22
48.5%
21
51.5%
Q2 - 10:06MIAMISS Mourning 8' Hook Shot22
47.6%
21
52.4%
Q2 - 10:17MIAWalker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)22
45.7%
21
54.3%
Q2 - 10:19SASMISS Finley 19' Jump Shot22
46.6%
21
53.4%
Q2 - 10:41MIAWalker Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)22
48.5%
21
51.5%
Q2 - 10:41MIAMISS Walker Free Throw 1 of 222
49.4%
20
50.6%
Q2 - 10:51MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)22
48.2%
20
51.8%
Q2 - 10:53SASMISS Finley 17' Fadeaway Jumper22
49.0%
20
51.0%
Q2 - 11:07MIAWade 8' Jump Shot (10 PTS)22
50.4%
20
49.6%
Q2 - 11:25SASDuncan Layup (7 PTS) (Ginobili 2 AST)22
52.9%
18
47.1%
Q2 - 11:31SASOberto REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)20
50.5%
18
49.5%
Q2 - 11:33MIAMISS Wade 10' Jump Shot20
49.7%
18
50.3%
Q2 - 11:40MIAWalker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)20
48.0%
18
52.0%
Q2 - 11:42SASMISS Duncan Driving Layup20
48.8%
18
51.2%
Q1 - 0:00.0MIA20
50.5%
18
49.5%
Q1 - 0:00.0SASParker 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS)20
48.0%
18
52.0%
Q1 - 0:00.0MIAPosey Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T9)17
43.2%
18
56.8%
Q1 - 0:03.0SASParker Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)17
41.0%
18
59.0%
Q1 - 0:03.0SASMISS Parker Free Throw 1 of 216
40.4%
18
59.6%
Q1 - 0:23.0SASMarks REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)16
40.5%
18
59.5%
Q1 - 0:25.0SASMISS Oberto 14' Jump Shot16
39.3%
18
60.7%
Q1 - 0:42.0MIAWalker Traveling Turnover (P1.T8)16
40.5%
18
59.5%
Q1 - 0:43.0MIAWalker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)16
38.7%
18
61.3%
Q1 - 0:45.0MIAMISS Walker Driving Layup16
40.0%
18
60.0%
Q1 - 0:58.0SASOberto 3 Second Violation Turnover (P1.T4)16
38.7%
18
61.3%
Q1 - 1:17MIAWade 9' Jump Shot (8 PTS)16
40.6%
18
59.4%
Q1 - 1:30MIAWade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)16
43.4%
16
56.6%
Q1 - 1:31SASMISS Ginobili Free Throw 2 of 216
43.6%
16
56.4%
Q1 - 1:31SASMISS Ginobili Free Throw 1 of 216
45.3%
16
54.7%
Q1 - 1:45SASParker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)16
45.2%
16
54.8%
Q1 - 1:46MIAMISS O'Neal Free Throw 1 of 116
44.9%
16
55.1%
Q1 - 2:05SASParker Running Layup (7 PTS)16
48.0%
14
52.0%
Q1 - 2:09MIAO'Neal Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T7)14
45.5%
14
54.5%
Q1 - 2:28SASParker Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)14
43.4%
14
56.6%
Q1 - 2:28SASMISS Parker Free Throw 1 of 213
42.7%
14
57.3%
Q1 - 2:39SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)13
43.2%
14
56.8%
Q1 - 2:40MIAMISS Haslem 16' Jump Shot13
42.6%
14
57.4%
Q1 - 3:02SASDuncan Alley Oop Dunk (5 PTS) (Parker 1 AST)13
40.8%
14
59.2%
Q1 - 3:08SASNesterovic REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)11
39.0%
14
61.0%
Q1 - 3:10MIAMISS Haslem 16' Jump Shot11
38.2%
14
61.8%
Q1 - 3:24MIAO'Neal REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)11
36.6%
14
63.4%
Q1 - 3:26SASMISS Bowen 24' 3PT Jump Shot11
37.3%
14
62.7%
Q1 - 3:41SASSpurs Rebound11
39.0%
14
61.0%
Q1 - 3:42MIAMISS Posey 15' Jump Shot11
38.2%
14
61.8%
Q1 - 4:13SASFinley 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS)11
36.6%
14
63.4%
Q1 - 4:25MIAWade Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T6)9
35.0%
14
65.0%
Q1 - 4:34MIAHaslem REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)9
32.6%
14
67.4%
Q1 - 4:35MIAMISS Wade Driving Layup9
34.2%
14
65.8%
Q1 - 4:55SASMohammed Traveling Turnover (P1.T3)9
32.6%
14
67.4%
Q1 - 5:16MIAO'Neal 8' Turnaround Hook Shot (4 PTS)9
35.1%
14
64.9%
Q1 - 5:33SASWade STEAL (1 STL)9
36.9%
12
63.1%
Q1 - 5:53MIAWade Driving Layup (6 PTS) (Williams 1 AST)9
39.0%
12
61.0%
Q1 - 5:58MIAWilliams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)9
40.9%
10
59.1%
Q1 - 6:00SASMISS Bowen 16' Jump Shot9
41.5%
10
58.5%
Q1 - 6:12SASNesterovic REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)9
42.9%
10
57.1%
Q1 - 6:13MIAMISS Wade 15' Jump Shot9
42.3%
10
57.7%
Q1 - 6:29SASDuncan 6' Running Hook Shot (3 PTS)9
40.9%
10
59.1%
Q1 - 6:48MIAHaslem Traveling Turnover (P1.T5)7
39.0%
10
61.0%
Q1 - 6:49MIAHaslem REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)7
37.0%
10
63.0%
Q1 - 6:50MIAMISS O'Neal 9' Turnaround Jump Shot7
38.4%
10
61.6%
Q1 - 7:12SASParker 8' Jump Shot (4 PTS)7
37.3%
10
62.7%
Q1 - 7:19SASParker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)5
35.7%
10
64.3%
Q1 - 7:21MIAMISS O'Neal 9' Jump Shot5
35.1%
10
64.9%
Q1 - 7:40MIAO'Neal REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)5
33.8%
10
66.2%
Q1 - 7:42SASMISS Nesterovic 5' Jump Shot5
34.4%
10
65.6%
Q1 - 7:58MIAWilliams 8' Running Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Haslem 1 AST)5
35.7%
10
64.3%
Q1 - 8:03MIAHaslem REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)5
37.5%
8
62.5%
Q1 - 8:04SASMISS Parker 12' Jump Shot5
38.1%
8
61.9%
Q1 - 8:20MIAWilliams Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T4)5
39.5%
8
60.5%
Q1 - 8:25SASWilliams STEAL (1 STL)5
37.5%
8
62.5%
Q1 - 8:41MIAWade Discontinue Dribble Turnover (P1.T3)5
39.5%
8
60.5%
Q1 - 8:48SASDuncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)5
37.5%
8
62.5%
Q1 - 8:48SASMISS Duncan Free Throw 1 of 24
37.0%
8
63.0%
Q1 - 8:57MIAO'Neal 4' Jump Bank Shot (2 PTS)4
37.7%
8
62.3%
Q1 - 9:16SASParker 6' Running Jump Shot (2 PTS)4
39.0%
6
61.0%
Q1 - 9:31MIAWade 14' Jump Shot (4 PTS)2
37.7%
6
62.3%
Q1 - 9:38MIAWade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)2
39.0%
4
61.0%
Q1 - 9:40SASMISS Ginobili 15' Jump Shot2
39.7%
4
60.3%
Q1 - 9:46SASGinobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)2
41.3%
4
58.7%
Q1 - 9:48MIAMISS Wade 12' Fadeaway Jumper2
40.6%
4
59.4%
Q1 - 9:57MIAHaslem REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)2
39.0%
4
61.0%
Q1 - 9:58SASMISS Bowen 20' Jump Shot2
39.7%
4
60.3%
Q1 - 10:13MIAWilliams Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T2)2
41.1%
4
58.9%
Q1 - 10:31SASNesterovic 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Ginobili 1 AST)2
39.1%
4
60.9%
Q1 - 10:48MIAO'Neal Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T1)0
37.5%
4
62.5%
Q1 - 10:57MIAPosey REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)0
35.5%
4
64.5%
Q1 - 10:59SASMISS Duncan 9' Turnaround Jump Shot0
36.2%
4
63.8%
Q1 - 11:15MIAWilliams Driving Layup (2 PTS)0
37.5%
4
62.5%
Q1 - 11:27MIAPosey REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)0
39.3%
2
60.7%
Q1 - 11:29SASO'Neal BLOCK (1 BLK)0
39.8%
2
60.2%
Q1 - 11:46MIAWade Driving Layup (2 PTS)0
41.0%
2
59.0%
Q1 - 12:00MIAJump Ball O'Neal vs. Nesterovic: Tip to Posey0
42.9%
0
57.1%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

SAS
1.12 56.1%
MIA
1.03 51.6%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
SAS
11
20
55%
MIA
21
32
66%
Midrange
SAS
15
31
48%
MIA
14
35
40%
3PT | Effective 3PT
SAS
8
12.0
18
44%
67%
MIA
3
4.5
11
27%
41%
Free Throws
SAS
25
43
58%
MIA
15
25
60%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
SAS logo Spurs
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
T. Parker3879%19.0 / 24
T. Duncan1444%7.0 / 16
B. Bowen1042%5.0 / 12
M. Ginobili867%4.0 / 6
B. Barry788%3.5 / 4
R. Nesterovic660%3.0 / 5
N. Van Exel675%3.0 / 4
M. Finley531%2.5 / 8
F. Oberto440%2.0 / 5
S. Marks338%1.5 / 4
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
MIA logo Heat
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
D. Wade3655%18.0 / 33
S. O'Neal2364%11.5 / 18
J. Williams1882%9.0 / 11
A. Walker1260%6.0 / 10
U. Haslem217%1.0 / 6
A. Mourning225%1.0 / 4
G. Payton113%0.5 / 4
J. Posey0-0.0 / 2
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

SAS
79
+10
-14
89
MIA
80
+10
-15
90
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS
1.12 56.1%
MIA
1.03 51.6%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
107.1
108.0
SAS 108.6
MIA 98.9 +9.7
Pace
88.8
92.2
SAS 89.0
MIA 99.4 +10.4
Avg. Poss. Time
16.9
15.9
SAS 16.2
MIA 14.5 +1.7
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
51.3%
51.7%
SAS 55.1% +4.5%
MIA 50.6%
TO %
14.8%
15.0%
SAS 13.7% +0.7%
MIA 14.4%
ORB %
26.1%
26.8%
SAS 18.9% +0.5%
MIA 18.4%
FTrt
29.8
36.3
SAS 62.3 +30.2
MIA 32.1
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
57.4%
55.7%
SAS 44.1% +15.2%
MIA 28.9%
STL %
7.4%
6.9%
SAS 6.5% +0.2%
MIA 6.3%
BLK %
8.4%
8.5%
SAS 10.4% +2.6%
MIA 7.8%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
53.1%
53.9%
SAS 56.1% +4.5%
MIA 51.6%
Rim FG%
61.7%
64.2%
SAS 55.0%
MIA 65.6% +10.6%
Mid FG%
39.0%
38.9%
SAS 48.4% +8.4%
MIA 40.0%
3P %
38.5%
34.5%
SAS 44.4% +17.1%
MIA 27.3%
FT %
70.2%
70.0%
SAS 58.1%
MIA 60.0% +1.9%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
36.7%
39.3%
SAS 29.0%
MIA 41.0% +12.0%
Mid Att. %
41.8%
38.0%
SAS 44.9%
MIA 44.9% +0.1%
3P Att. %
21.5%
22.7%
SAS 26.1% +12.0%
MIA 14.1%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.67 and 2.67.
Game TotalsSASMIA
Possessions9395
Possession Minutes25.122.9
Points10194
Rebounds3837
Assists1511
Steals66
Blocks74
Turnovers (Team)14 (0)15 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)7 (3)7 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)31 (3)30 (2)
Field Goals34-6938-78
At-the-Rim FG11-2021-32
Midrange FG15-3114-35
2-Point FG26-5135-67
3-Point FG8-183-11
Free Throws25-4315-25
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

Access to boxscore predictions requires a premium subscription.
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
G · 6'2" 185 · 24
38.9
38
79%
4
5
2
0
3
1
1
3
10-13
77%
11-16
69%
2-2
100%
F · 6'11" 250 · 30
38.5
14
44%
11
1
0
0
3
4
2
9
4-12
33%
5-10
50%
0-0
-
F · 6'7" 200 · 35
32.3
10
42%
2
2
1
0
1
1
1
1
3-4
75%
2-6
33%
1-4
25%
C · 7'0" 255 · 30
26.0
6
60%
5
0
2
3
0
6
0
5
0-0
-
3-5
60%
0-0
-
G · 6'6" 205 · 28
19.9
8
67%
1
5
1
1
2
2
0
1
3-7
43%
1-2
50%
1-1
100%
G-F · 6'7" 225 · 33
28.1
5
31%
3
0
0
0
1
0
0
3
3-3
100%
1-4
25%
0-4
0%
C · 6'10" 245 · 31
18.1
4
40%
4
0
0
1
2
3
2
2
0-0
-
2-5
40%
0-0
-
G · 6'1" 190 · 34
13.1
6
75%
2
1
0
0
1
1
0
2
0-0
-
0-0
-
2-4
50%
G · 6'7" 210 · 34
12.1
7
88%
4
1
0
1
0
0
0
4
1-2
50%
0-0
-
2-3
67%
F-C · 6'10" 250 · 30
7.0
3
38%
2
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
1-2
50%
1-3
33%
0-0
-
C · 6'10" 250 · 28
6.0
0
0%
0
0
0
0
1
5
0
0
0-0
-
0-0
-
0-0
-
G · 6'3" 205 · 24
#5 · F-C · 6'10" 240 · 35
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
101
56%
38
15
6
7
14
0
7
31
25-43
58%
26-51
51%
8-18
44%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.