Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, January 16, 2006

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	1	Spurs	45%	85	93
	4	Grizzlies	55%	86	83

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
SAS	110.7	84	85.8
MEM	102.5	81	79.3

Scoring Opportunities

SAS

-8

MEM

+17

-10

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.12 56.0%

MEM

0.92 46.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	MEM
Q4 - 0:00.0	SAS		93 100%	83 0%
Q4 - 0:03.0	MEM	Jones Layup (8 PTS)	93 99.9%	83 0.1%
Q4 - 0:09.0	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	93 99.9%	81 0.1%
Q4 - 0:11.0	SAS	MISS Oberto 16' Jump Shot	93 99.9%	81 0.1%
Q4 - 0:29.0	SAS	Bowen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	93 99.9%	81 0.1%
Q4 - 0:31.0	MEM	MISS Jackson 26' 3PT Jump Shot	93 99.9%	81 0.1%
Q4 - 0:41.0	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:5 Def:4)	93 99.9%	81 0.1%
Q4 - 0:42.0	SAS	MISS Finley 3PT Jump Shot	93 99.9%	81 0.1%
Q4 - 1:04	MEM	Jackson Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)	93 99.9%	81 0.1%
Q4 - 1:04	MEM	MISS Jackson Free Throw 1 of 2	93 99.9%	80 0.1%
Q4 - 1:12	SAS	Parker Free Throw 2 of 2 (28 PTS)	93 99.9%	80 0.1%
Q4 - 1:12	SAS	Parker Free Throw 1 of 2 (27 PTS)	92 99.9%	80 0.1%
Q4 - 1:17	MEM	Jones Reverse Layup (10 PTS) (Jackson 7 AST)	91 99.8%	80 0.2%
Q4 - 1:29	SAS	Parker Running Layup (26 PTS)	91 99.8%	78 0.2%
Q4 - 1:47	MEM	Jones Reverse Layup (8 PTS)	89 99.6%	78 0.4%
Q4 - 1:54	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7)	89 99.7%	76 0.3%
Q4 - 1:56	SAS	MISS Duncan 10' Turnaround Hook Shot	89 99.8%	76 0.2%
Q4 - 2:16	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:10)	89 99.8%	76 0.2%
Q4 - 2:17	MEM	MISS Jones Free Throw 2 of 2	89 99.8%	76 0.2%
Q4 - 2:17	SAS	Finley Free Throw Technical (13 PTS)	89 99.6%	76 0.4%
Q4 - 2:17	MEM	Jones Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)	88 99.6%	76 0.4%
Q4 - 2:31	SAS	Duncan Dunk (13 PTS)	88 99.6%	75 0.4%
Q4 - 2:44	SAS	Horry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	86 99.6%	75 0.4%
Q4 - 2:45	MEM	MISS Jones Free Throw 2 of 2	86 99.5%	75 0.5%
Q4 - 2:45	MEM	Jones Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)	86 99.4%	75 0.6%
Q4 - 2:45	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw Technical (15 PTS)	86 99.4%	74 0.6%
Q4 - 2:55	SAS	Parker Free Throw 1 of 1 (24 PTS)	85 98.7%	74 1.3%
Q4 - 2:57	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	82 97.3%	74 2.7%
Q4 - 3:00	MEM	MISS Gasol 4' Driving Hook Shot	82 96.8%	74 3.2%
Q4 - 3:18	SAS	Jones STEAL (2 STL)	82 95.3%	74 4.7%
Q4 - 3:38	MEM	Jackson Free Throw 1 of 1 (9 PTS)	82 95.2%	74 4.8%
Q4 - 3:49	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)	82 97.7%	71 2.3%
Q4 - 3:51	SAS	MISS Bowen 3PT Jump Shot	82 97.9%	71 2.1%
Q4 - 4:19	MEM	Jones 18' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Jackson 6 AST)	82 98.5%	71 1.5%
Q4 - 4:28	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:5 Def:3)	82 99.0%	69 1.0%
Q4 - 4:29	MEM	MISS Jackson Layup	82 99.2%	69 0.8%
Q4 - 4:36	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)	82 99.0%	69 1.0%
Q4 - 4:36	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)	81 98.9%	69 1.1%
Q4 - 4:38	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:9)	80 98.5%	69 1.5%
Q4 - 4:41	MEM	MISS Jones Reverse Layup	80 98.4%	69 1.6%
Q4 - 4:59	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)	80 97.9%	69 2.1%
Q4 - 4:59	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)	79 97.7%	69 2.3%
Q4 - 5:12	MEM	Jackson Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	78 95.4%	69 4.6%
Q4 - 5:12	MEM	MISS Jackson Free Throw 1 of 2	78 95.6%	68 4.4%
Q4 - 5:17	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	78 95.3%	68 4.7%
Q4 - 5:19	SAS	Battier BLOCK (2 BLK)	78 95.8%	68 4.2%
Q4 - 5:42	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:8)	78 96.7%	68 3.3%
Q4 - 5:45	MEM	MISS Jones 3PT Jump Shot	78 96.3%	68 3.7%
Q4 - 6:03	SAS	Battier STEAL (1 STL)	78 93.6%	68 6.4%
Q4 - 6:16	MEM	Battier Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)	78 95.4%	68 4.6%
Q4 - 6:16	MEM	Battier Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)	78 95.7%	67 4.3%
Q4 - 6:20	MEM	GRIZZLIES Rebound	78 96.4%	66 3.6%
Q4 - 6:23	MEM	MISS Jackson 3PT Jump Shot	78 97.2%	66 2.8%
Q4 - 6:27	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:4 Def:3)	78 96.4%	66 3.6%
Q4 - 6:28	MEM	MISS Battier 3PT Jump Shot	78 97.2%	66 2.8%
Q4 - 6:46	SAS	Bowen 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Ginobili 5 AST)	78 96.5%	66 3.5%
Q4 - 6:56	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:7)	75 94.0%	66 6.0%
Q4 - 6:59	SAS	MISS Horry 17' Jump Bank Shot	75 92.5%	66 7.5%
Q4 - 7:15	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	75 92.3%	66 7.7%
Q4 - 7:15	MEM	MISS Wright 18' Jump Shot	75 91.6%	66 8.4%
Q4 - 7:32	MEM	Jackson REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	75 89.9%	66 10.1%
Q4 - 7:34	MEM	MISS Battier 25' 3PT Jump Shot	75 91.7%	66 8.3%
Q4 - 7:47	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	75 89.9%	66 10.1%
Q4 - 7:50	MEM	MISS Gasol 21' Jump Shot	75 91.7%	66 8.3%
Q4 - 8:14	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	75 88.2%	66 11.8%
Q4 - 8:16	SAS	MISS Horry 3PT Jump Shot	75 89.0%	66 11.0%
Q4 - 8:32	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	75 90.7%	66 9.3%
Q4 - 8:35	MEM	MISS Miller 24' 3PT Jump Shot	75 90.0%	66 10.0%
Q4 - 8:58	SAS	Horry 6' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Ginobili 4 AST)	75 88.3%	66 11.7%
Q4 - 9:13	MEM	Warrick Foul Turnover (P3.T11)	73 83.9%	66 16.1%
Q4 - 9:36	SAS	Duncan 6' Jump Bank Shot (11 PTS)	73 80.2%	66 19.8%
Q4 - 9:59	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	71 76.4%	66 23.6%
Q4 - 10:02	MEM	MISS Roberson Running Layup	71 73.4%	66 26.6%
Q4 - 10:17	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	71 70.0%	66 30.0%
Q4 - 10:19	SAS	MISS Ginobili Driving Layup	71 71.5%	66 28.5%
Q4 - 10:38	MEM	Roberson 22' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	71 74.9%	66 25.1%
Q4 - 10:49	MEM	Warrick REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	71 78.7%	64 21.3%
Q4 - 10:51	SAS	MISS Duncan 6' Jump Shot	71 79.9%	64 20.1%
Q4 - 11:11	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	71 81.1%	64 18.9%
Q4 - 11:14	MEM	MISS Miller 8' Jump Bank Shot	71 80.0%	64 20.0%
Q4 - 11:25	MEM	Warrick REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	71 77.4%	64 22.6%
Q4 - 11:28	SAS	MISS Finley 12' Jump Shot	71 78.6%	64 21.4%
Q4 - 11:41	MEM	Warrick Foul Turnover (P2.T10)	71 81.1%	64 18.9%
Q3 - 0:00.0	SAS		71 77.4%	64 22.6%
Q3 - 0:00.0	SAS	Spurs Rebound	71 81.2%	64 18.8%
Q3 - 0:00.0	SAS	MISS Barry 3PT Jump Shot	71 78.6%	64 21.4%
Q3 - 0:10.0	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	71 79.7%	64 20.3%
Q3 - 0:11.0	MEM	MISS Warrick Free Throw 2 of 2	71 79.3%	64 20.7%
Q3 - 0:11.0	MEM	MISS Warrick Free Throw 1 of 2	71 77.2%	64 22.8%
Q3 - 0:11.0	MEM	Warrick REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	71 76.2%	64 23.8%
Q3 - 0:13.0	MEM	MISS Gasol Driving Layup	71 78.7%	64 21.3%
Q3 - 0:31.0	SAS	Finley Driving Layup (12 PTS)	71 76.3%	64 23.7%
Q3 - 0:51.0	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 2 of 2 (25 PTS)	69 72.4%	64 27.6%
Q3 - 0:51.0	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 1 of 2 (24 PTS)	69 73.4%	63 26.6%
Q3 - 0:51.0	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)	69 76.3%	62 23.7%
Q3 - 0:53.0	MEM	MISS Jackson 3PT Jump Shot	69 78.8%	62 21.2%
Q3 - 1:13	SAS	Parker Driving Layup (21 PTS)	69 74.9%	62 25.1%
Q3 - 1:28	MEM	Gasol Foul Turnover (P3.T9)	67 71.2%	62 28.8%
Q3 - 1:43	SAS	Parker Free Throw 1 of 1 (19 PTS)	67 66.9%	62 33.1%
Q3 - 1:45	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	64 57.9%	62 42.1%
Q3 - 1:47	MEM	MISS Miller 25' 3PT Jump Shot	64 56.4%	62 43.6%
Q3 - 2:08	SAS	Barry 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Finley 2 AST)	64 51.8%	62 48.2%
Q3 - 2:25	MEM	Miller 25' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Jones 2 AST)	61 43.0%	62 57.0%
Q3 - 2:47	SAS	Parker 4' Jump Shot (16 PTS)	61 51.9%	59 48.1%
Q3 - 2:54	SAS	Horry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	59 47.7%	59 52.3%
Q3 - 2:56	MEM	MISS Jackson Layup	59 46.1%	59 53.9%
Q3 - 3:12	MEM	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	59 42.9%	59 57.1%
Q3 - 3:14	SAS	MISS Duncan 17' Jump Shot	59 44.4%	59 55.6%
Q3 - 3:39	MEM	Gasol 7' Jump Shot (23 PTS)	59 47.6%	59 52.4%
Q3 - 3:52	SAS	Jones STEAL (1 STL)	59 51.8%	57 48.2%
Q3 - 4:06	MEM	Gasol Driving Layup (21 PTS)	59 56.1%	57 43.9%
Q3 - 4:26	SAS	Finley Dunk (10 PTS) (Barry 2 AST)	59 59.7%	55 40.3%
Q3 - 4:32	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	57 56.1%	55 43.9%
Q3 - 4:35	MEM	MISS Miller 15' Running Jump Shot	57 54.6%	55 45.4%
Q3 - 5:02	SAS	Finley 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Barry 1 AST)	57 51.1%	55 48.9%
Q3 - 5:16	SAS	Spurs Rebound	54 43.1%	55 56.9%
Q3 - 5:16	SAS	Battier BLOCK (1 BLK)	54 40.1%	55 59.9%
Q3 - 5:30	MEM	Battier 8' Turnaround Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Jackson 5 AST)	54 43.1%	55 56.9%
Q3 - 5:49	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)	54 46.9%	53 53.1%
Q3 - 5:49	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)	53 45.7%	53 54.3%
Q3 - 6:02	MEM	GRIZZLIES Turnover: Shot Clock (T#8)	52 43.0%	53 57.0%
Q3 - 6:02	MEM	GRIZZLIES Rebound	52 38.8%	53 61.2%
Q3 - 6:02	MEM	MISS Gasol 14' Jump Shot	52 41.7%	53 58.3%
Q3 - 6:03	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	52 38.8%	53 61.2%
Q3 - 6:05	MEM	MISS Gasol 4' Jump Shot	52 41.7%	53 58.3%
Q3 - 6:26	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)	52 38.9%	53 61.1%
Q3 - 6:26	SAS	MISS Ginobili Free Throw 1 of 2	51 38.2%	53 61.8%
Q3 - 6:42	MEM	Gasol 6' Turnaround Jump Shot (19 PTS)	51 39.1%	53 60.9%
Q3 - 7:02	SAS	Duncan 15' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Ginobili 3 AST)	51 42.3%	51 57.7%
Q3 - 7:17	MEM	Jones 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Jackson 4 AST)	49 39.1%	51 60.9%
Q3 - 7:35	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	49 46.1%	48 53.9%
Q3 - 7:35	SAS	Parker Layup (14 PTS)	49 46.1%	48 53.9%
Q3 - 7:38	SAS	MISS Parker 10' Running Jump Shot	47 39.8%	48 60.2%
Q3 - 7:55	MEM	Wright 6' Jump Shot (6 PTS)	47 42.8%	48 57.2%
Q3 - 8:10	MEM	GRIZZLIES Rebound	47 46.2%	46 53.8%
Q3 - 8:11	MEM	MISS Jackson 25' 3PT Jump Shot	47 49.2%	46 50.8%
Q3 - 8:17	SAS	Jackson STEAL (1 STL)	47 46.2%	46 53.8%
Q3 - 8:22	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	47 50.5%	46 49.5%
Q3 - 8:23	MEM	MISS Battier Layup	47 49.2%	46 50.8%
Q3 - 8:43	SAS	Nesterovic Layup (4 PTS) (Parker 4 AST)	47 46.2%	46 53.8%
Q3 - 9:01	MEM	Wright Layup (4 PTS) (Jones 1 AST)	45 42.5%	46 57.5%
Q3 - 9:24	SAS	Parker Layup (12 PTS) (Bowen 2 AST)	45 46.1%	44 53.9%
Q3 - 9:33	MEM	Gasol 3 Second Violation Turnover (P2.T7)	43 42.6%	44 57.4%
Q3 - 9:46	MEM	Jackson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	43 38.9%	44 61.1%
Q3 - 9:47	SAS	MISS Bowen 20' Jump Shot	43 40.0%	44 60.0%
Q3 - 10:02	MEM	Battier 5' Turnaround Jump Shot (7 PTS)	43 42.8%	44 57.2%
Q3 - 10:21	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	43 45.8%	42 54.2%
Q3 - 10:22	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2	43 46.3%	42 53.7%
Q3 - 10:22	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	43 48.4%	42 51.6%
Q3 - 10:32	SAS	Bowen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	42 46.2%	42 53.8%
Q3 - 10:35	MEM	MISS Jackson 25' 3PT Jump Shot	42 45.0%	42 55.0%
Q3 - 10:59	MEM	Wright REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)	42 42.3%	42 57.7%
Q3 - 11:00	SAS	MISS Ginobili Free Throw 2 of 2	42 42.8%	42 57.2%
Q3 - 11:00	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)	42 45.2%	42 54.8%
Q3 - 11:09	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	41 42.6%	42 57.4%
Q3 - 11:11	MEM	MISS Gasol 5' Jump Shot	41 41.6%	42 58.4%
Q3 - 11:36	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	41 39.2%	42 60.8%
Q3 - 11:38	SAS	MISS Bowen 3PT Jump Shot	41 40.2%	42 59.8%
Q2 - 0:00.0	SAS		41 42.7%	42 57.3%
Q2 - 0:01.0	MEM	Gasol Dunk (17 PTS) (Jackson 3 AST)	41 42.2%	42 57.8%
Q2 - 0:21.0	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	41 46.5%	40 53.5%
Q2 - 0:23.0	SAS	MISS Van Exel 25' 3PT Jump Shot	41 47.2%	40 52.8%
Q2 - 0:43.0	MEM	Gasol Dunk (15 PTS) (Miller 1 AST)	41 48.9%	40 51.1%
Q2 - 0:56.0	MEM	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	41 53.1%	38 46.9%
Q2 - 0:57.0	SAS	MISS Mohammed Free Throw 2 of 2	41 53.4%	38 46.6%
Q2 - 0:57.0	SAS	MISS Mohammed Free Throw 1 of 2	41 55.4%	38 44.6%
Q2 - 1:14	MEM	Battier Layup (5 PTS) (Gasol 1 AST)	41 54.9%	38 45.1%
Q2 - 1:15	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	41 59.5%	36 40.5%
Q2 - 1:17	MEM	MISS Jones Free Throw 1 of 1	41 60.9%	36 39.1%
Q2 - 1:38	SAS	Parker Driving Layup (10 PTS)	41 65.6%	34 34.4%
Q2 - 1:48	SAS	Mohammed REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	39 61.2%	34 38.8%
Q2 - 1:50	MEM	MISS Gasol 7' Turnaround Jump Shot	39 60.7%	34 39.3%
Q2 - 2:03	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	39 58.3%	34 41.7%
Q2 - 2:06	SAS	MISS Bowen 3PT Jump Shot	39 59.2%	34 40.8%
Q2 - 2:19	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS)	39 61.2%	34 38.8%
Q2 - 2:19	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)	39 61.9%	33 38.1%
Q2 - 2:37	SAS	Bowen 17' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Ginobili 2 AST)	39 64.4%	32 35.6%
Q2 - 2:55	MEM	Miller Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T6)	37 61.2%	32 38.8%
Q2 - 3:17	SAS	Mohammed Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	37 57.4%	32 42.6%
Q2 - 3:17	SAS	Mohammed Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	36 56.6%	32 43.4%
Q2 - 3:33	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)	35 54.8%	32 45.2%
Q2 - 3:33	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)	35 55.6%	31 44.4%
Q2 - 3:50	SAS	Van Exel Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T5)	35 57.5%	30 42.5%
Q2 - 4:10	SAS	Oberto REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	35 59.8%	30 40.2%
Q2 - 4:11	MEM	MISS Battier Free Throw 2 of 2	35 59.4%	30 40.6%
Q2 - 4:11	MEM	Battier Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	35 57.6%	30 42.4%
Q2 - 4:31	SAS	Van Exel 20' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Bowen 1 AST)	35 59.8%	29 40.2%
Q2 - 4:46	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	33 57.0%	29 43.0%
Q2 - 4:47	MEM	MISS Jackson Free Throw 2 of 2	33 56.7%	29 43.3%
Q2 - 4:47	MEM	Jackson Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	33 54.7%	29 45.3%
Q2 - 4:53	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	33 57.0%	28 43.0%
Q2 - 4:56	SAS	MISS Van Exel 25' 3PT Jump Shot	33 57.9%	28 42.1%
Q2 - 5:14	SAS	Oberto REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	33 59.6%	28 40.4%
Q2 - 5:15	MEM	MISS Jackson 21' Jump Shot	33 58.7%	28 41.3%
Q2 - 5:32	MEM	Jackson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	33 56.6%	28 43.4%
Q2 - 5:34	SAS	MISS Finley 3PT Jump Shot	33 57.6%	28 42.4%
Q2 - 5:52	MEM	Battier Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	33 59.6%	28 40.4%
Q2 - 5:52	MEM	Battier Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	33 60.2%	27 39.8%
Q2 - 6:01	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	33 61.5%	26 38.5%
Q2 - 6:04	SAS	MISS Nesterovic 17' Jump Shot	33 62.4%	26 37.6%
Q2 - 6:36	MEM	Miller 5' Running Jump Shot (8 PTS)	33 64.6%	26 35.4%
Q2 - 7:00	SAS	Van Exel 19' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	33 66.6%	24 33.4%
Q2 - 7:07	SAS	Bowen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	31 63.6%	24 36.4%
Q2 - 7:09	MEM	MISS Wright 6' Jump Shot	31 62.8%	24 37.2%
Q2 - 7:23	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	31 61.0%	24 39.0%
Q2 - 7:24	SAS	MISS Finley 20' Jump Shot	31 61.8%	24 38.2%
Q2 - 7:33	SAS	Nesterovic REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	31 63.7%	24 36.3%
Q2 - 7:36	MEM	MISS Warrick 5' Fadeaway Jumper	31 62.9%	24 37.1%
Q2 - 8:00	SAS	Van Exel Reverse Layup (2 PTS)	31 61.1%	24 38.9%
Q2 - 8:03	MEM	Warrick Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T5)	29 58.3%	24 41.7%
Q2 - 8:04	MEM	Warrick REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	29 55.4%	24 44.6%
Q2 - 8:07	SAS	MISS Nesterovic 5' Hook Shot	29 56.3%	24 43.7%
Q2 - 8:15	SAS	Nesterovic REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	29 58.3%	24 41.7%
Q2 - 8:18	MEM	MISS Warrick 4' Turnaround Jump Shot	29 57.5%	24 42.5%
Q2 - 8:38	MEM	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	29 55.5%	24 44.5%
Q2 - 8:40	SAS	MISS Nesterovic 7' Turnaround Jump Shot	29 56.4%	24 43.6%
Q2 - 8:51	MEM	Jones Free Throw 2 of 2 (3 PTS)	29 58.3%	24 41.7%
Q2 - 8:51	MEM	MISS Jones Free Throw 1 of 2	29 59.0%	23 41.0%
Q2 - 9:11	MEM	Roberson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	29 57.5%	23 42.5%
Q2 - 9:13	SAS	MISS Horry 24' 3PT Jump Shot	29 58.4%	23 41.6%
Q2 - 9:21	SAS	Van Exel REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	29 60.3%	23 39.7%
Q2 - 9:23	MEM	MISS Miller 19' Jump Shot	29 59.5%	23 40.5%
Q2 - 9:40	SAS	Duncan 5' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Van Exel 1 AST)	29 57.6%	23 42.4%
Q2 - 9:53	SAS	Horry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	27 55.4%	23 44.6%
Q2 - 9:55	SAS	MISS Finley 25' 3PT Jump Shot	27 53.4%	23 46.6%
Q2 - 10:00	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	27 55.4%	23 44.6%
Q2 - 10:02	SAS	MISS Van Exel 25' 3PT Jump Shot	27 53.2%	23 46.8%
Q2 - 10:13	MEM	Miller Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	27 55.1%	23 44.9%
Q2 - 10:13	MEM	Miller Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	27 55.6%	22 44.4%
Q2 - 10:23	MEM	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	27 57.3%	21 42.7%
Q2 - 10:26	SAS	MISS Duncan 9' Jump Bank Shot	27 58.1%	21 41.9%
Q2 - 10:43	MEM	Jones Reverse Layup (2 PTS)	27 60.0%	21 40.0%
Q2 - 10:59	MEM	Roberson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	27 62.1%	19 37.9%
Q2 - 11:02	SAS	MISS Finley 15' Fadeaway Jumper	27 62.2%	19 37.8%
Q2 - 11:18	SAS	Horry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	27 63.8%	19 36.2%
Q2 - 11:19	MEM	Warrick REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	27 61.6%	19 38.4%
Q2 - 11:19	MEM	MISS Warrick Tip Shot	27 63.1%	19 36.9%
Q2 - 11:23	MEM	MISS Gasol 5' Running Hook Shot	27 63.1%	19 36.9%
Q2 - 11:39	MEM	Roberson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	27 61.6%	19 38.4%
Q2 - 11:41	SAS	MISS Horry 21' Jump Shot	27 62.3%	19 37.7%
Q1 - 0:00.0	MEM		27 63.9%	19 36.1%
Q1 - 0:00.0	SAS	Ginobili Driving Layup (8 PTS)	27 61.6%	19 38.4%
Q1 - 0:18.0	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)	25 58.5%	19 41.5%
Q1 - 0:18.0	MEM	MISS Gasol Free Throw 1 of 2	25 59.1%	18 40.9%
Q1 - 0:32.0	SAS	Ginobili 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Parker 3 AST)	25 59.0%	18 41.0%
Q1 - 0:47.0	MEM	Gasol 8' Jump Shot (8 PTS)	22 53.8%	18 46.2%
Q1 - 1:09	SAS	Mohammed Dunk (2 PTS) (Parker 2 AST)	22 56.6%	16 43.4%
Q1 - 1:21	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	20 53.8%	16 46.2%
Q1 - 1:23	MEM	MISS Jackson Layup	20 53.2%	16 46.8%
Q1 - 1:25	MEM	Jackson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	20 52.0%	16 48.0%
Q1 - 1:27	MEM	MISS Jackson 12' Jump Shot	20 53.2%	16 46.8%
Q1 - 1:54	SAS	Finley 15' Turnaround Jump Shot (5 PTS)	20 52.0%	16 48.0%
Q1 - 2:19	MEM	Miller Layup (4 PTS) (Jones 1 AST)	18 49.4%	16 50.6%
Q1 - 2:35	SAS	Finley 27' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Parker 1 AST)	18 51.9%	14 48.1%
Q1 - 2:58	MEM	Jackson Driving Layup (4 PTS)	15 47.0%	14 53.0%
Q1 - 3:11	SAS	Parker Running Layup (8 PTS)	15 48.9%	12 51.1%
Q1 - 3:29	MEM	Gasol Slam Dunk (6 PTS) (Jackson 2 AST)	13 47.0%	12 53.0%
Q1 - 3:43	SAS	Mohammed Traveling Turnover (P1.T4)	13 49.0%	10 51.0%
Q1 - 4:04	MEM	Wright REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)	13 51.3%	10 48.7%
Q1 - 4:04	MEM	Wright Layup (2 PTS)	13 51.3%	10 48.7%
Q1 - 4:06	MEM	MISS Gasol 6' Turnaround Hook Shot	13 54.9%	8 45.1%
Q1 - 4:24	SAS	Duncan Foul Turnover (P1.T3)	13 53.0%	8 47.0%
Q1 - 4:30	SAS	Mohammed REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	13 55.7%	8 44.3%
Q1 - 4:33	MEM	MISS Gasol 7' Turnaround Jump Shot	13 54.9%	8 45.1%
Q1 - 4:58	SAS	Parker 21' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Finley 1 AST)	13 53.0%	8 47.0%
Q1 - 5:14	MEM	Miller Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T4)	11 50.6%	8 49.4%
Q1 - 5:14	MEM	GRIZZLIES Rebound	11 48.3%	8 51.7%
Q1 - 5:14	MEM	Wright REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	11 48.3%	8 51.7%
Q1 - 5:14	MEM	MISS Wright Tip Shot	11 49.9%	8 50.1%
Q1 - 5:15	MEM	MISS Gasol Driving Layup	11 49.9%	8 50.1%
Q1 - 5:36	SAS	Parker Driving Layup (4 PTS)	11 48.3%	8 51.7%
Q1 - 5:46	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	9 46.5%	8 53.5%
Q1 - 5:48	MEM	MISS Jackson Running Layup	9 45.7%	8 54.3%
Q1 - 6:03	SAS	Duncan Layup (2 PTS) (Mohammed 1 AST)	9 44.0%	8 56.0%
Q1 - 6:15	MEM	Battier Foul Turnover (P1.T3)	7 42.1%	8 57.9%
Q1 - 6:20	MEM	Jackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	7 40.0%	8 60.0%
Q1 - 6:23	SAS	Wright BLOCK (1 BLK)	7 40.7%	8 59.3%
Q1 - 6:53	MEM	Jackson Driving Layup (2 PTS)	7 42.1%	8 57.9%
Q1 - 7:09	MEM	GRIZZLIES Rebound	7 43.8%	6 56.2%
Q1 - 7:11	SAS	MISS Ginobili 26' 3PT Jump Shot	7 44.4%	6 55.6%
Q1 - 7:25	SAS	Spurs Rebound	7 45.9%	6 54.1%
Q1 - 7:25	MEM	MISS Miller 25' 3PT Jump Shot	7 45.2%	6 54.8%
Q1 - 7:47	MEM	Jump Ball Wright vs. Parker: Tip to Gasol	7 43.8%	6 56.2%
Q1 - 8:03	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	7 46.1%	6 53.9%
Q1 - 8:05	MEM	MISS Gasol 18' Jump Shot	7 45.4%	6 54.6%
Q1 - 8:31	SAS	Ginobili 5' Running Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Duncan 2 AST)	7 43.9%	6 56.1%
Q1 - 8:43	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	5 42.3%	6 57.7%
Q1 - 8:45	MEM	MISS Wright Layup	5 41.7%	6 58.3%
Q1 - 9:11	SAS	Parker Layup (2 PTS) (Duncan 1 AST)	5 39.9%	6 60.1%
Q1 - 9:22	MEM	Miller 22' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Jackson 1 AST)	3 38.6%	6 61.4%
Q1 - 9:42	SAS	Nesterovic Layup (2 PTS) (Ginobili 1 AST)	3 39.9%	4 60.1%
Q1 - 10:00	MEM	Gasol 5' Turnaround Jump Shot (4 PTS)	1 38.6%	4 61.4%
Q1 - 10:22	MEM	Wright REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	1 40.0%	2 60.0%
Q1 - 10:23	SAS	MISS Ginobili Free Throw 2 of 2	1 40.3%	2 59.7%
Q1 - 10:23	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	1 41.5%	2 58.5%
Q1 - 10:26	MEM	Gasol Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T2)	0 40.2%	2 59.8%
Q1 - 10:33	MEM	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 38.2%	2 61.8%
Q1 - 10:35	SAS	MISS Bowen 19' Jump Shot	0 38.8%	2 61.2%
Q1 - 10:47	MEM	Jones Foul Turnover (P1.T1)	0 40.3%	2 59.7%
Q1 - 10:52	MEM	Wright REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	0 38.2%	2 61.8%
Q1 - 10:55	MEM	MISS Jones Driving Layup	0 39.6%	2 60.4%
Q1 - 11:10	SAS	Spurs Turnover: Shot Clock (T#1)	0 38.5%	2 61.5%
Q1 - 11:10	SAS	Spurs Rebound	0 40.1%	2 59.9%
Q1 - 11:10	SAS	Gasol BLOCK (1 BLK)	0 39.0%	2 61.0%
Q1 - 11:43	MEM	Gasol Driving Dunk (2 PTS)	0 40.1%	2 59.9%
Q1 - 12:00	MEM	Jump Ball Gasol vs. Nesterovic: Tip to Jackson	0 42.0%	0 58.0%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.12 56.0%

MEM

0.92 46.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

SAS

88%

MEM

51%

Midrange

SAS

31%

MEM

38%

3PT | Effective 3PT

SAS

7.5

28%

42%

MEM

3.0

15%

23%

Free Throws

SAS

75%

MEM

66%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Parker	28	100%	14.0 / 14
M. Ginobili	15	75%	7.5 / 10
T. Duncan	13	54%	6.5 / 12
M. Finley	13	59%	6.5 / 11
N. Van Exel	6	50%	3.0 / 6
B. Bowen	5	31%	2.5 / 8
R. Nesterovic	4	40%	2.0 / 5
N. Mohammed	4	50%	2.0 / 4
B. Barry	3	75%	1.5 / 2
R. Horry	2	17%	1.0 / 6
F. Oberto	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Grizzlies

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
P. Gasol	25	50%	12.5 / 25
S. Battier	11	61%	5.5 / 9
M. Miller	11	50%	5.5 / 11
B. Jackson	10	29%	5.0 / 17
E. Jones	10	63%	5.0 / 8
D. Jones	8	100%	4.0 / 4
L. Wright	6	43%	3.0 / 7
A. Roberson	2	50%	1.0 / 2
H. Warrick	0	-	0.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

SAS

-8

MEM

+17

-10

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.12 56.0%

MEM

0.92 46.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	107.1 105.9	SAS 110.7 +8.2 MEM 102.5
Pace	88.8 86.4	SAS 85.8 +6.4 MEM 79.3
Avg. Poss. Time	16.9 17.3	SAS 16.8 +1.4 MEM 18.1
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	51.3% 49.6%	SAS 54.3% +11.8% MEM 42.5%
TO %	14.8% 14.8%	SAS 10.2% +1.0% MEM 11.2%
ORB %	26.1% 25.8%	SAS 11.8% MEM 29.5% +17.7%
FTrt	29.8 33.9	SAS 34.8 MEM 43.8 +9.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	57.4% 57.8%	SAS 57.1% +13.8% MEM 43.3%
STL %	7.4% 8.4%	SAS 2.4% MEM 4.9% +2.5%
BLK %	8.4% 8.9%	SAS 13.3% +5.5% MEM 7.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	53.1% 51.9%	SAS 56.0% +9.9% MEM 46.1%
Rim FG%	61.7% 57.0%	SAS 88.0% +36.7% MEM 51.3%
Mid FG%	39.0% 37.2%	SAS 30.8% MEM 38.1% +7.3%
3P %	38.5% 37.4%	SAS 27.8% +12.4% MEM 15.4%
FT %	70.2% 71.1%	SAS 75.0% +9.4% MEM 65.6%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	36.7% 38.4%	SAS 36.2% MEM 53.4% +17.2%
Mid Att. %	41.8% 35.9%	SAS 37.7% MEM 28.8% +8.9%
3P Att. %	21.5% 25.8%	SAS 26.1% +8.3% MEM 17.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	SAS	MEM
Possessions	84	81
Possession Minutes	23.5	24.5
Points	93	83
Rebounds	35	43
Assists	20	13
Steals	2	4
Blocks	8	4
Turnovers (Team)	8 (1)	10 (1)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	4 (3)	13 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	31 (1)	30 (1)
Field Goals	35-69	30-73
At-the-Rim FG	22-25	20-39
Midrange FG	8-26	8-21
2-Point FG	30-51	28-60
3-Point FG	5-18	2-13
Free Throws	18-24	21-32
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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1 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tony Parker G · 6'2" 185 · 24	35.1	28	100%	4	4	0	1	1	2	1	3	4-4	100%	12-13	92%	0-0	-
Tim Duncan F · 6'11" 250 · 30	33.1	13	54%	12	3	0	1	2	5	2	10	3-4	75%	5-10	50%	0-0	-
Manu Ginobili G · 6'6" 205 · 28	31.4	15	75%	2	5	1	2	1	5	0	2	8-11	73%	2-3	67%	1-2	50%
Bruce Bowen F · 6'7" 200 · 35	30.4	5	31%	3	2	0	0	1	3	0	3	0-0	-	1-4	25%	1-4	25%
Rasho Nesterovic C · 7'0" 255 · 30	14.5	4	40%	2	0	0	2	0	4	0	2	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Michael Finley G-F · 6'7" 225 · 33	26.8	13	59%	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	3	1-1	100%	3-6	50%	2-5	40%
Robert Horry F-C · 6'10" 240 · 35	21.5	2	17%	4	0	0	0	1	4	1	3	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-2	0%
Nick Van Exel G · 6'1" 190 · 34	17.7	6	50%	1	1	1	0	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-3	0%
Nazr Mohammed C · 6'10" 250 · 28	15.4	4	50%	2	1	0	2	1	4	0	2	2-4	50%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Brent Barry G · 6'7" 210 · 34	8.4	3	75%	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Fabricio Oberto C · 6'10" 245 · 31	4.6	0	0%	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Beno Udrih G · 6'3" 205 · 24	1.1	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Sean Marks #40 · F-C · 6'10" 250 · 30	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	93	56%	35	20	2	8	8	0	4	31	18-24	75%	30-51	59%	5-18	28%

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1 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tony Parker G · 6'2" 185 · 24	35.1	28	100%	4	4	0	1	1	2	1	3	4-4	100%	12-13	92%	0-0	-
Tim Duncan F · 6'11" 250 · 30	33.1	13	54%	12	3	0	1	2	5	2	10	3-4	75%	5-10	50%	0-0	-
Manu Ginobili G · 6'6" 205 · 28	31.4	15	75%	2	5	1	2	1	5	0	2	8-11	73%	2-3	67%	1-2	50%
Bruce Bowen F · 6'7" 200 · 35	30.4	5	31%	3	2	0	0	1	3	0	3	0-0	-	1-4	25%	1-4	25%
Rasho Nesterovic C · 7'0" 255 · 30	14.5	4	40%	2	0	0	2	0	4	0	2	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Michael Finley G-F · 6'7" 225 · 33	26.8	13	59%	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	3	1-1	100%	3-6	50%	2-5	40%
Robert Horry F-C · 6'10" 240 · 35	21.5	2	17%	4	0	0	0	1	4	1	3	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-2	0%
Nick Van Exel G · 6'1" 190 · 34	17.7	6	50%	1	1	1	0	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-3	0%
Nazr Mohammed C · 6'10" 250 · 28	15.4	4	50%	2	1	0	2	1	4	0	2	2-4	50%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Brent Barry G · 6'7" 210 · 34	8.4	3	75%	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Fabricio Oberto C · 6'10" 245 · 31	4.6	0	0%	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Beno Udrih G · 6'3" 205 · 24	1.1	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Sean Marks #40 · F-C · 6'10" 250 · 30	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	93	56%	35	20	2	8	8	0	4	31	18-24	75%	30-51	59%	5-18	28%

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4 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Pau Gasol F · 7'0" 250 · 26	42.4	25	50%	9	1	0	1	3	3	5	4	7-8	88%	9-21	43%	0-0	-
Bobby Jackson G · 6'1" 185 · 33	39.0	10	29%	5	7	1	0	0	1	2	3	4-7	57%	3-9	33%	0-5	0%
Shane Battier F · 6'8" 220 · 27	31.8	11	61%	2	0	1	2	1	3	1	1	5-6	83%	3-4	75%	0-2	0%
Lorenzen Wright C · 6'11" 255 · 30	26.6	6	43%	5	0	0	1	0	4	3	2	0-0	-	3-7	43%	0-0	-
Eddie Jones G · 6'6" 200 · 34	25.6	10	63%	7	2	2	0	1	6	0	7	1-2	50%	3-5	60%	1-2	50%
Mike Miller G-F · 6'8" 218 · 26	37.3	11	50%	5	2	0	0	2	6	0	5	2-2	100%	3-6	50%	1-4	25%
Dahntay Jones G-F · 6'6" 225 · 25	18.2	8	100%	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	2-5	40%	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Anthony Roberson G · 6'2" 180 · 23	10.2	2	50%	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Hakim Warrick F · 6'9" 219 · 24	8.9	0	0%	5	0	0	0	3	4	2	3	0-2	0%	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Brian Cardinal F · 6'8" 240 · 29
Jake Tsakalidis C · 7'2" 290 · 27
Lawrence Roberts F · 6'9" 240 · 23
Antonio Burks #1 · G · 6'0" 195 · 26	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Damon Stoudamire #20 · G · 5'10" 171 · 32	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	83	46%	43	13	4	4	10	0	13	30	21-32	66%	28-60	47%	2-13	15%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE