Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, January 14, 2006

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	5	Grizzlies	26%	82	79
	2	Spurs	74%	90	80

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
MEM	97.5	81	82.4
SAS	101.3	79	77.9

Scoring Opportunities

MEM

-13

SAS

+10

-15

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MEM

1.01 50.6%

SAS

1.04 51.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	MEM	SAS
Q4 - 0:00.0	SAS		79 0%	80 100%
Q4 - 0:00.0	SAS	Horry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	79 0.6%	80 99.4%
Q4 - 0:02.0	MEM	MISS Jackson 19' Fadeaway Jumper	79 4.1%	80 95.9%
Q4 - 0:07.0	SAS	Duncan 2' Alley Oop Layup (19 PTS) (Ginobili 7 AST)	79 26.9%	80 73.1%
Q4 - 0:08.0	MEM	Gasol 2' Slam Dunk (26 PTS) (Jackson 4 AST)	79 49.3%	78 50.7%
Q4 - 0:11.0	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	77 28.8%	78 71.2%
Q4 - 0:11.0	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:4 Def:9)	77 11.1%	78 88.9%
Q4 - 0:11.0	SAS	MISS Duncan 13' Jump Shot	77 22.0%	78 78.0%
Q4 - 0:14.0	SAS	MISS Duncan 8' Jump Shot	77 22.8%	78 77.2%
Q4 - 0:35.0	MEM	Jones Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)	77 12.7%	78 87.3%
Q4 - 0:35.0	MEM	Jones Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)	76 11.2%	78 88.8%
Q4 - 0:40.0	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	75 9.0%	78 91.0%
Q4 - 0:42.0	SAS	MISS Ginobili 9' Jump Shot	75 7.4%	78 92.6%
Q4 - 1:00	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 2 of 2 (24 PTS)	75 5.8%	78 94.2%
Q4 - 1:00	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 1 of 2 (23 PTS)	74 5.1%	78 94.9%
Q4 - 1:18	SAS	Horry 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Ginobili 6 AST)	73 4.2%	78 95.8%
Q4 - 1:35	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:3 Def:9)	73 11.9%	75 88.1%
Q4 - 1:37	MEM	MISS Gasol 3' Driving Layup	73 14.0%	75 86.0%
Q4 - 1:53	SAS	Duncan Traveling Turnover (P3.T15)	73 19.8%	75 80.2%
Q4 - 2:13	MEM	Jackson 17' Jump Shot (19 PTS)	73 12.0%	75 88.0%
Q4 - 2:34	SAS	Parker Lost Ball Turnover (P5.T14)	71 9.6%	75 90.4%
Q4 - 2:58	MEM	Jackson 15' Fadeaway Jumper (17 PTS)	71 6.2%	75 93.8%
Q4 - 3:18	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:9)	69 4.7%	75 95.3%
Q4 - 3:19	SAS	MISS Horry 25' 3PT Jump Shot	69 3.9%	75 96.1%
Q4 - 3:41	MEM	Jackson 5' Jump Shot (15 PTS)	69 4.1%	75 95.9%
Q4 - 3:54	SAS	Parker Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)	67 2.9%	75 97.1%
Q4 - 3:54	SAS	MISS Parker Free Throw 1 of 2	67 3.2%	74 96.8%
Q4 - 3:57	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:3 Def:8)	67 2.8%	74 97.2%
Q4 - 4:00	MEM	MISS Miller 6' Running Jump Shot	67 3.1%	74 96.9%
Q4 - 4:20	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)	67 4.0%	74 96.0%
Q4 - 4:22	SAS	MISS Duncan 8' Jump Shot	67 3.5%	74 96.5%
Q4 - 4:43	MEM	Jones 24' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Jackson 3 AST)	67 2.7%	74 97.3%
Q4 - 4:54	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	64 1.3%	74 98.7%
Q4 - 4:56	SAS	MISS Van Exel 10' Running Jump Shot	64 1.2%	74 98.8%
Q4 - 5:22	MEM	Jones 8' Running Jump Shot (11 PTS)	64 1.3%	74 98.7%
Q4 - 5:41	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (17 PTS)	62 0.9%	74 99.1%
Q4 - 5:41	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (16 PTS)	62 1.0%	73 99.0%
Q4 - 5:53	SAS	SPURS Rebound	62 1.3%	72 98.7%
Q4 - 5:53	MEM	Duncan BLOCK (4 BLK)	62 1.4%	72 98.6%
Q4 - 6:22	SAS	Van Exel 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	62 2.4%	72 97.6%
Q4 - 6:41	MEM	Jackson 15' Turnaround Jump Shot (13 PTS)	62 3.0%	70 97.0%
Q4 - 6:56	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:8)	60 2.4%	70 97.6%
Q4 - 6:57	SAS	MISS Duncan 15' Fadeaway Jumper	60 2.1%	70 97.9%
Q4 - 7:10	MEM	Gasol Bad Pass Turnover (P5.T13)	60 2.2%	70 97.8%
Q4 - 7:43	SAS	Ginobili 25' 3PT Jump Shot (20 PTS) (Bowen 2 AST)	60 2.9%	70 97.1%
Q4 - 8:00	SAS	Bowen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	60 4.8%	67 95.2%
Q4 - 8:02	MEM	MISS Jackson 30' 3PT Jump Shot	60 6.2%	67 93.8%
Q4 - 8:06	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	60 7.3%	67 92.7%
Q4 - 8:06	MEM	Duncan BLOCK (3 BLK)	60 6.2%	67 93.8%
Q4 - 8:28	SAS	Duncan 14' Jump Shot (15 PTS)	60 7.2%	67 92.8%
Q4 - 8:50	MEM	Miller 14' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Burks 3 AST)	60 9.1%	65 90.9%
Q4 - 9:20	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:3 Def:7)	58 7.8%	65 92.2%
Q4 - 9:20	SAS	Duncan 2' Layup (13 PTS)	58 7.8%	65 92.2%
Q4 - 9:22	SAS	MISS Duncan 2' Layup	58 11.2%	63 88.8%
Q4 - 9:32	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	58 9.6%	63 90.4%
Q4 - 9:34	MEM	MISS Miller 22' Jump Shot	58 10.3%	63 89.7%
Q4 - 9:51	MEM	Cardinal REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	58 12.0%	63 88.0%
Q4 - 9:54	SAS	MISS Ginobili 14' Jump Shot	58 11.2%	63 88.8%
Q4 - 10:17	MEM	Miller 20' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Burks 2 AST)	58 10.1%	63 89.9%
Q4 - 10:30	SAS	Horry Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T13)	56 8.3%	63 91.7%
Q4 - 10:49	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:7)	56 6.6%	63 93.4%
Q4 - 10:51	MEM	MISS Gasol 4' Jump Shot	56 7.1%	63 92.9%
Q4 - 11:16	SAS	Horry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	56 8.9%	63 91.1%
Q4 - 11:16	SAS	Horry 2' Tip Shot (6 PTS)	56 8.9%	63 91.1%
Q4 - 11:18	SAS	MISS Finley 17' Jump Shot	56 12.4%	61 87.6%
Q4 - 11:45	MEM	Miller 12' Jump Bank Shot (6 PTS)	56 10.7%	61 89.3%
Q3 - 0:00.0	SAS		54 8.9%	61 91.1%
Q3 - 0:00.0	SAS	SPURS Rebound	54 7.2%	61 92.8%
Q3 - 0:00.0	SAS	MISS Ginobili 41' 3PT Jump Shot	54 8.3%	61 91.7%
Q3 - 0:02.0	MEM	Miller 2' Driving Layup (4 PTS)	54 7.7%	61 92.3%
Q3 - 0:11.0	SAS	Mohammed Foul Turnover (P1.T12)	52 6.4%	61 93.6%
Q3 - 0:34.0	MEM	Jackson 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS)	52 5.2%	61 94.8%
Q3 - 0:52.0	SAS	Horry 5' Jump Hook Shot (4 PTS) (Parker 3 AST)	49 3.5%	61 96.5%
Q3 - 1:13	MEM	Jackson 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Gasol 5 AST)	49 4.7%	59 95.3%
Q3 - 1:23	MEM	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	46 3.2%	59 96.8%
Q3 - 1:24	SAS	MISS Finley 5' Jump Shot	46 3.0%	59 97.0%
Q3 - 1:50	MEM	Gasol 2' Driving Layup (22 PTS)	46 2.6%	59 97.4%
Q3 - 2:14	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	44 2.4%	59 97.6%
Q3 - 2:15	SAS	MISS Horry 25' 3PT Jump Shot	44 2.3%	59 97.7%
Q3 - 2:30	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	44 2.0%	59 98.0%
Q3 - 2:31	MEM	MISS Gasol 8' Turnaround Jump Shot	44 2.1%	59 97.9%
Q3 - 2:49	SAS	Finley 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Mohammed 1 AST)	44 2.4%	59 97.6%
Q3 - 3:04	SAS	Mohammed REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	44 3.8%	56 96.2%
Q3 - 3:06	SAS	MISS Bowen Free Throw 2 of 2	44 4.4%	56 95.6%
Q3 - 3:06	SAS	Bowen Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)	44 4.0%	56 96.0%
Q3 - 3:22	SAS	SPURS Rebound	44 4.4%	55 95.6%
Q3 - 3:23	MEM	Horry BLOCK (1 BLK)	44 4.7%	55 95.3%
Q3 - 3:39	MEM	Grizzlies Rebound	44 5.3%	55 94.7%
Q3 - 3:39	SAS	MISS Horry 19' Jump Shot	44 5.0%	55 95.0%
Q3 - 4:12	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	44 4.6%	55 95.4%
Q3 - 4:13	MEM	MISS Miller 24' 3PT Jump Shot	44 4.9%	55 95.1%
Q3 - 4:21	MEM	Jackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	44 5.6%	55 94.4%
Q3 - 4:23	SAS	MISS Duncan 6' Jump Shot	44 5.3%	55 94.7%
Q3 - 4:37	SAS	Bowen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	44 4.6%	55 95.4%
Q3 - 4:39	MEM	MISS Jackson 24' 3PT Jump Shot	44 4.9%	55 95.1%
Q3 - 4:57	SAS	Bowen Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	44 5.6%	55 94.4%
Q3 - 4:57	SAS	Bowen Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)	44 5.9%	54 94.1%
Q3 - 5:13	MEM	Gasol Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P4.T12)	44 6.8%	53 93.2%
Q3 - 5:39	SAS	Ginobili 25' 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Parker 2 AST)	44 8.0%	53 92.0%
Q3 - 5:52	MEM	Gasol 14' Jump Shot (20 PTS)	44 10.7%	50 89.3%
Q3 - 6:16	SAS	Parker 19' Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Bowen 1 AST)	42 9.5%	50 90.5%
Q3 - 6:41	MEM	Jackson Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	42 10.9%	48 89.1%
Q3 - 6:41	MEM	Jackson Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)	41 10.6%	48 89.4%
Q3 - 7:09	SAS	Ginobili 24' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Duncan 2 AST)	40 9.8%	48 90.2%
Q3 - 7:21	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	40 12.6%	45 87.4%
Q3 - 7:22	MEM	MISS Jackson 17' Jump Shot	40 13.2%	45 86.8%
Q3 - 7:32	MEM	Wright REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	40 14.7%	45 85.3%
Q3 - 7:33	SAS	MISS Parker 17' Jump Shot	40 14.1%	45 85.9%
Q3 - 7:49	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	40 12.6%	45 87.4%
Q3 - 7:51	MEM	MISS Gasol Free Throw 2 of 2	40 12.9%	45 87.1%
Q3 - 7:51	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 1 of 2 (18 PTS)	40 14.0%	45 86.0%
Q3 - 8:12	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	39 13.0%	45 87.0%
Q3 - 8:16	MEM	MISS Gasol 10' Turnaround Jump Shot	39 11.7%	45 88.3%
Q3 - 8:38	MEM	Wright REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	39 13.0%	45 87.0%
Q3 - 8:40	SAS	MISS Parker 21' Jump Shot	39 12.4%	45 87.6%
Q3 - 9:01	MEM	Gasol 16' Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Jackson 2 AST)	39 11.2%	45 88.8%
Q3 - 9:19	SAS	Ginobili Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T11)	37 9.9%	45 90.1%
Q3 - 9:34	SAS	Bowen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	37 8.6%	45 91.4%
Q3 - 9:35	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2	37 9.7%	45 90.3%
Q3 - 9:35	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2	37 9.0%	45 91.0%
Q3 - 9:48	MEM	Gasol 7' Fadeaway Jumper (15 PTS)	37 8.6%	45 91.4%
Q3 - 10:09	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	35 7.7%	45 92.3%
Q3 - 10:11	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2	35 7.6%	45 92.4%
Q3 - 10:11	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)	35 7.0%	45 93.0%
Q3 - 10:29	SAS	Bowen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	35 7.6%	44 92.4%
Q3 - 10:30	MEM	MISS Jones 5' Jump Shot	35 7.9%	44 92.1%
Q3 - 10:46	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)	35 8.8%	44 91.2%
Q3 - 10:48	SAS	MISS Parker 18' Jump Shot	35 8.4%	44 91.6%
Q3 - 11:05	MEM	Wright 6' Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Gasol 4 AST)	35 7.7%	44 92.3%
Q3 - 11:15	MEM	Jackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	33 6.8%	44 93.2%
Q3 - 11:17	SAS	MISS Nesterovic 8' Jump Hook Shot	33 6.5%	44 93.5%
Q3 - 11:36	MEM	Gasol Traveling Turnover (P3.T11)	33 6.0%	44 94.0%
Q3 - 11:48	SAS	Bowen Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T10)	33 6.8%	44 93.2%
Q2 - 0:00.0	MEM		33 6.0%	44 94.0%
Q2 - 0:00.0	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)	33 6.8%	44 93.2%
Q2 - 0:01.0	SAS	MISS Van Exel 3PT Jump Shot	33 6.9%	44 93.1%
Q2 - 0:18.0	MEM	Jones 3' Driving Layup (9 PTS)	33 6.5%	44 93.5%
Q2 - 0:32.0	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)	31 5.5%	44 94.5%
Q2 - 0:32.0	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)	31 5.6%	43 94.4%
Q2 - 0:37.0	SAS	Van Exel REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	31 6.4%	42 93.6%
Q2 - 0:39.0	MEM	MISS Jones 11' Jump Shot	31 6.6%	42 93.4%
Q2 - 0:53.0	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 1 of 1 (9 PTS)	31 7.0%	42 93.0%
Q2 - 1:03	MEM	Ginobili STEAL (3 STL)	31 9.7%	39 90.3%
Q2 - 1:07	SAS	Parker Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T9)	31 10.3%	39 89.7%
Q2 - 1:34	MEM	Jackson 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Gasol 3 AST)	31 9.7%	39 90.3%
Q2 - 1:47	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	28 7.2%	39 92.8%
Q2 - 1:49	MEM	MISS Jones 24' 3PT Jump Shot	28 6.9%	39 93.1%
Q2 - 2:02	MEM	Grizzlies Rebound	28 7.7%	39 92.3%
Q2 - 2:03	SAS	MISS Finley 3PT Jump Shot	28 7.4%	39 92.6%
Q2 - 2:19	SAS	SPURS Rebound	28 6.9%	39 93.1%
Q2 - 2:21	MEM	MISS Battier 25' 3PT Jump Shot	28 7.1%	39 92.9%
Q2 - 2:37	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)	28 7.6%	39 92.4%
Q2 - 2:37	MEM	MISS Gasol Free Throw 1 of 1	28 7.0%	39 93.0%
Q2 - 2:57	SAS	Horry 2' Layup (2 PTS) (Ginobili 5 AST)	26 6.0%	39 94.0%
Q2 - 3:10	SAS	Nesterovic REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	26 7.1%	37 92.9%
Q2 - 3:11	MEM	Nesterovic BLOCK (1 BLK)	26 7.3%	37 92.7%
Q2 - 3:25	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	26 8.0%	37 92.0%
Q2 - 3:27	MEM	MISS Jones 11' Jump Bank Shot	26 7.3%	37 92.7%
Q2 - 3:41	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	26 8.0%	37 92.0%
Q2 - 3:43	SAS	MISS Nesterovic 9' Jump Hook Shot	26 7.7%	37 92.3%
Q2 - 3:58	MEM	Jones 9' Fadeaway Jumper (7 PTS)	26 7.0%	37 93.0%
Q2 - 4:03	MEM	Grizzlies Rebound	24 6.5%	37 93.5%
Q2 - 4:04	MEM	MISS Jackson 3PT Jump Shot	24 6.1%	37 93.9%
Q2 - 4:29	SAS	Parker 19' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Horry 2 AST)	24 6.5%	37 93.5%
Q2 - 4:49	MEM	Gasol Foul Turnover (P2.T9)	24 7.3%	35 92.7%
Q2 - 4:56	MEM	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	24 8.1%	35 91.9%
Q2 - 4:58	SAS	MISS Finley 18' Jump Shot	24 7.8%	35 92.2%
Q2 - 5:08	MEM	Finley STEAL (1 STL)	24 7.3%	35 92.7%
Q2 - 5:27	SAS	Ginobili 1' Dunk (6 PTS)	24 8.2%	35 91.8%
Q2 - 5:30	MEM	Ginobili STEAL (2 STL)	24 9.0%	33 91.0%
Q2 - 5:44	SAS	Finley 24' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS)	24 10.1%	33 89.9%
Q2 - 6:11	SAS	SPURS Rebound	24 12.3%	30 87.7%
Q2 - 6:11	MEM	MISS Wright 18' Jump Shot	24 12.8%	30 87.2%
Q2 - 6:28	MEM	Wright REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	24 13.8%	30 86.2%
Q2 - 6:29	SAS	MISS Finley 25' 3PT Jump Shot	24 13.3%	30 86.7%
Q2 - 6:44	SAS	Nesterovic REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	24 12.3%	30 87.7%
Q2 - 6:46	MEM	MISS Jackson Driving Layup	24 12.7%	30 87.3%
Q2 - 6:51	SAS	Van Exel Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T8)	24 13.8%	30 86.2%
Q2 - 7:16	MEM	Gasol 4' Hook Shot (11 PTS)	24 12.7%	30 87.3%
Q2 - 7:29	MEM	Wright REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	22 11.6%	30 88.4%
Q2 - 7:31	SAS	MISS Finley 20' Jump Shot	22 11.3%	30 88.7%
Q2 - 7:50	SAS	Nesterovic REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	22 10.5%	30 89.5%
Q2 - 7:51	MEM	MISS Gasol Free Throw 2 of 2	22 10.6%	30 89.4%
Q2 - 7:51	MEM	MISS Gasol Free Throw 1 of 2	22 11.3%	30 88.7%
Q2 - 8:12	SAS	Bowen 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Duncan 1 AST)	22 11.7%	30 88.3%
Q2 - 8:19	SAS	Mohammed REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	22 13.9%	27 86.1%
Q2 - 8:22	MEM	MISS Miller 3PT Jump Shot	22 14.3%	27 85.7%
Q2 - 8:40	SAS	Duncan Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T7)	22 15.3%	27 84.7%
Q2 - 8:55	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	22 13.9%	27 86.1%
Q2 - 8:57	SAS	MISS Mohammed 8' Jump Shot	22 14.9%	27 85.1%
Q2 - 9:13	SAS	Jump Ball Duncan vs. Warrick: Tip to Bowen	22 13.9%	27 86.1%
Q2 - 9:13	MEM	Warrick REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	22 15.3%	27 84.7%
Q2 - 9:14	SAS	MISS Van Exel 3' Running Layup	22 14.9%	27 85.1%
Q2 - 9:18	MEM	Bowen STEAL (1 STL)	22 13.9%	27 86.1%
Q2 - 9:34	MEM	Burks REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	22 15.3%	27 84.7%
Q2 - 9:36	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	22 13.9%	27 86.1%
Q2 - 9:36	SAS	MISS Duncan 3' Layup	22 14.9%	27 85.1%
Q2 - 9:40	SAS	MISS Ginobili 4' Jump Shot	22 14.9%	27 85.1%
Q2 - 9:56	MEM	Miller Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T4)	22 13.9%	27 86.1%
Q2 - 10:12	SAS	Duncan 2' Dunk (10 PTS) (Ginobili 4 AST)	22 15.5%	27 84.5%
Q2 - 10:15	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	22 16.6%	25 83.4%
Q2 - 10:17	SAS	MISS Mohammed 5' Jump Shot	22 17.7%	25 82.3%
Q2 - 10:30	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	22 16.6%	25 83.4%
Q2 - 10:31	MEM	MISS Gasol Free Throw 2 of 2	22 16.8%	25 83.2%
Q2 - 10:31	MEM	MISS Gasol Free Throw 1 of 2	22 17.7%	25 82.3%
Q2 - 10:50	SAS	Mohammed Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	22 18.2%	25 81.8%
Q2 - 10:50	SAS	Mohammed Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	22 18.7%	24 81.3%
Q2 - 11:01	MEM	Miller 21' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Burks 1 AST)	22 19.3%	23 80.7%
Q2 - 11:19	SAS	Duncan 3' Layup (8 PTS) (Van Exel 1 AST)	20 17.9%	23 82.1%
Q2 - 11:26	SAS	Mohammed REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	20 19.4%	21 80.6%
Q2 - 11:28	MEM	MISS Warrick 5' Jump Shot	20 19.8%	21 80.2%
Q2 - 11:41	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	20 20.9%	21 79.1%
Q2 - 11:43	SAS	Mohammed REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	20 19.4%	21 80.6%
Q2 - 11:43	SAS	MISS Mohammed 3' Tip Shot	20 20.4%	21 79.6%
Q2 - 11:45	SAS	MISS Ginobili 4' Driving Layup	20 20.4%	21 79.6%
Q1 - 0:00.0	MEM		20 19.4%	21 80.6%
Q1 - 0:02.0	SAS	Parker Free Throw 1 of 1 (5 PTS)	20 20.6%	21 79.4%
Q1 - 0:24.0	MEM	Warrick Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)	20 24.3%	18 75.7%
Q1 - 0:45.0	SAS	Ginobili Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T6)	17 20.6%	18 79.4%
Q1 - 0:57.0	MEM	Miller Step Out of Bounds Turnover (P2.T3)	17 19.4%	18 80.6%
Q1 - 1:01	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	17 20.6%	18 79.4%
Q1 - 1:03	SAS	MISS Ginobili 2' Dunk	17 20.2%	18 79.8%
Q1 - 1:07	MEM	Ginobili STEAL (1 STL)	17 19.4%	18 80.6%
Q1 - 1:27	MEM	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	17 20.6%	18 79.4%
Q1 - 1:29	SAS	MISS Parker 19' Jump Shot	17 20.2%	18 79.8%
Q1 - 1:42	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	17 19.4%	18 80.6%
Q1 - 1:44	MEM	MISS Gasol 10' Jump Shot	17 19.8%	18 80.2%
Q1 - 2:08	SAS	Parker 2' Layup (2 PTS) (Ginobili 3 AST)	17 20.7%	18 79.3%
Q1 - 2:16	SAS	Mohammed REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	17 22.4%	16 77.6%
Q1 - 2:16	MEM	MISS Wright Free Throw 2 of 2	17 22.6%	16 77.4%
Q1 - 2:16	MEM	Wright Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	17 23.5%	16 76.5%
Q1 - 2:28	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	16 22.3%	16 77.7%
Q1 - 2:30	SAS	MISS Horry 13' Jump Shot	16 21.8%	16 78.2%
Q1 - 2:45	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	16 20.8%	16 79.2%
Q1 - 2:47	MEM	MISS Jackson 17' Jump Shot	16 21.3%	16 78.7%
Q1 - 3:00	SAS	Finley Free Throw Technical (6 PTS)	16 22.3%	16 77.7%
Q1 - 3:04	SAS	Parker Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T5)	16 23.7%	15 76.3%
Q1 - 3:21	MEM	Gasol 4' Jump Shot (9 PTS)	16 22.0%	15 78.0%
Q1 - 3:46	SAS	Duncan 5' Jump Hook Shot (6 PTS)	14 20.7%	15 79.3%
Q1 - 4:06	MEM	Duncan STEAL (1 STL)	14 21.5%	13 78.5%
Q1 - 4:22	SAS	Finley 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Parker 1 AST)	14 23.4%	13 76.6%
Q1 - 4:47	MEM	Gasol 3' Dunk (7 PTS)	14 26.4%	10 73.6%
Q1 - 5:12	SAS	Finley 2' Dunk (2 PTS) (Horry 1 AST)	12 24.3%	10 75.7%
Q1 - 5:28	MEM	Battier 7' Jump Hook Shot (2 PTS)	12 25.8%	8 74.2%
Q1 - 5:42	SAS	Duncan Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T4)	10 24.4%	8 75.6%
Q1 - 6:10	MEM	Jones 20' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Battier 1 AST)	10 22.4%	8 77.6%
Q1 - 6:28	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	8 21.1%	8 78.9%
Q1 - 6:30	SAS	MISS Bowen 3PT Jump Shot	8 20.7%	8 79.3%
Q1 - 6:47	MEM	Gasol 5' Driving Layup (5 PTS)	8 19.7%	8 80.3%
Q1 - 6:55	MEM	Grizzlies Rebound	6 18.5%	8 81.5%
Q1 - 6:55	MEM	Duncan BLOCK (2 BLK)	6 17.7%	8 82.3%
Q1 - 7:09	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	6 18.4%	8 81.6%
Q1 - 7:10	SAS	MISS Duncan 17' Jump Shot	6 18.0%	8 82.0%
Q1 - 7:28	MEM	Gasol 17' Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Jackson 1 AST)	6 17.2%	8 82.8%
Q1 - 7:47	SAS	Ginobili 16' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	4 16.2%	8 83.8%
Q1 - 7:52	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	4 17.2%	6 82.8%
Q1 - 7:56	MEM	Bowen BLOCK (1 BLK)	4 17.6%	6 82.4%
Q1 - 8:06	SAS	Parker Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T3)	4 18.3%	6 81.7%
Q1 - 8:14	SAS	Nesterovic REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4 17.0%	6 83.0%
Q1 - 8:16	MEM	MISS Jackson 9' Jump Shot	4 17.4%	6 82.6%
Q1 - 8:26	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4 18.3%	6 81.7%
Q1 - 8:28	SAS	MISS Ginobili 24' 3PT Jump Shot	4 17.9%	6 82.1%
Q1 - 8:40	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	4 17.0%	6 83.0%
Q1 - 8:42	MEM	MISS Jackson 24' 3PT Jump Shot	4 17.4%	6 82.6%
Q1 - 9:07	SAS	Duncan 9' Jump Bank Shot (4 PTS) (Ginobili 2 AST)	4 18.2%	6 81.8%
Q1 - 9:25	SAS	SPURS Rebound	4 19.0%	4 81.0%
Q1 - 9:26	MEM	Wright REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	4 20.6%	4 79.4%
Q1 - 9:26	MEM	Duncan BLOCK (1 BLK)	4 19.5%	4 80.5%
Q1 - 9:28	MEM	MISS Jackson 2' Reverse Layup	4 19.5%	4 80.5%
Q1 - 9:36	SAS	Nesterovic Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T2)	4 20.6%	4 79.4%
Q1 - 9:48	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4 19.0%	4 81.0%
Q1 - 9:49	MEM	MISS Gasol Free Throw 2 of 2	4 19.2%	4 80.8%
Q1 - 9:49	MEM	MISS Gasol Free Throw 1 of 2	4 20.0%	4 80.0%
Q1 - 10:05	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	4 20.4%	4 79.6%
Q1 - 10:07	MEM	MISS Wright 15' Jump Shot	4 19.4%	4 80.6%
Q1 - 10:22	SAS	Ginobili 3' Finger Roll (2 PTS)	4 20.4%	4 79.6%
Q1 - 10:39	MEM	Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Gasol 1 AST)	4 21.5%	2 78.5%
Q1 - 11:00	SAS	Duncan 4' Layup (2 PTS) (Ginobili 1 AST)	1 19.2%	2 80.8%
Q1 - 11:16	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)	1 20.3%	0 79.7%
Q1 - 11:16	MEM	MISS Gasol Free Throw 1 of 2	0 20.0%	0 80.0%
Q1 - 11:29	SAS	Parker Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)	0 20.2%	0 79.8%
Q1 - 11:34	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 19.1%	0 80.9%
Q1 - 11:35	MEM	MISS Jones 16' Jump Shot	0 19.4%	0 80.6%
Q1 - 12:00	SAS	Jump Ball Nesterovic vs. Gasol: Tip to Jones	0 20.2%	0 79.8%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MEM

1.01 50.6%

SAS

1.04 51.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MEM

48%

SAS

63%

Midrange

MEM

52%

SAS

22%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MEM

7.5

38%

58%

SAS

12.0

50%

75%

Free Throws

MEM

50%

SAS

74%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Grizzlies

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
P. Gasol	26	52%	13.0 / 25
B. Jackson	19	53%	9.5 / 18
E. Jones	16	62%	8.0 / 13
M. Miller	10	56%	5.0 / 9
L. Wright	3	30%	1.5 / 5
H. Warrick	3	75%	1.5 / 2
S. Battier	2	33%	1.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
M. Ginobili	20	67%	10.0 / 15
T. Duncan	19	50%	9.5 / 19
M. Finley	12	60%	6.0 / 10
T. Parker	10	56%	5.0 / 9
R. Horry	9	56%	4.5 / 8
B. Bowen	6	75%	3.0 / 4
N. Van Exel	2	25%	1.0 / 4
N. Mohammed	2	25%	1.0 / 4
R. Nesterovic	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

MEM

-13

SAS

+10

-15

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MEM

1.01 50.6%

SAS

1.04 51.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	105.9 107.1	MEM 97.5 +3.7 SAS 101.3
Pace	86.4 88.8	MEM 82.4 +4.6 SAS 77.9
Avg. Poss. Time	17.3 16.9	MEM 17.5 +1.0 SAS 18.5
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	49.6% 51.3%	MEM 51.5% +2.2% SAS 49.3%
TO %	14.8% 14.8%	MEM 14.6% +2.0% SAS 16.6%
ORB %	25.8% 26.1%	MEM 20.6% SAS 23.7% +3.1%
FTrt	33.9 29.8	MEM 29.9 +1.5 SAS 28.4
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	57.8% 57.4%	MEM 40.6% SAS 62.1% +21.5%
STL %	8.4% 7.4%	MEM 13.6% +4.7% SAS 8.9%
BLK %	8.9% 8.4%	MEM 5.9% SAS 13.0% +7.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	51.9% 53.1%	MEM 50.6% SAS 51.9% +1.3%
Rim FG%	57.0% 61.7%	MEM 47.8% SAS 62.5% +14.7%
Mid FG%	37.2% 39.0%	MEM 51.6% +29.4% SAS 22.2%
3P %	37.4% 38.5%	MEM 38.5% SAS 50.0% +11.5%
FT %	71.1% 70.2%	MEM 50.0% SAS 73.7% +23.7%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	38.4% 36.7%	MEM 34.3% SAS 35.8% +1.5%
Mid Att. %	35.9% 41.8%	MEM 46.3% SAS 40.3% +6.0%
3P Att. %	25.8% 21.5%	MEM 19.4% SAS 23.9% +4.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MEM	SAS
Possessions	81	79
Possession Minutes	23.6	24.4
Points	79	80
Rebounds	36	36
Assists	13	18
Steals	11	7
Blocks	3	7
Turnovers (Team)	13 (0)	15 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	7 (2)	9 (1)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	29 (2)	27 (5)
Field Goals	32-67	29-67
At-the-Rim FG	11-23	15-24
Midrange FG	16-31	6-27
2-Point FG	27-54	21-51
3-Point FG	5-13	8-16
Free Throws	10-20	14-19
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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5 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Pau Gasol F · 7'0" 250 · 26	46.1	26	52%	7	5	0	2	5	4	2	5	4-13	31%	11-20	55%	0-0	-
Bobby Jackson G · 6'1" 185 · 33	40.1	19	53%	2	4	2	0	3	2	0	2	2-2	100%	4-10	40%	3-7	43%
Shane Battier F · 6'8" 220 · 27	37.9	2	33%	6	1	3	0	0	4	3	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Eddie Jones G · 6'6" 200 · 34	36.6	16	62%	10	0	2	0	0	3	1	9	2-2	100%	4-9	44%	2-3	67%
Lorenzen Wright C · 6'11" 255 · 30	23.2	3	30%	5	0	1	0	0	1	1	4	1-2	50%	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Mike Miller G-F · 6'8" 218 · 26	32.0	10	56%	3	0	0	0	3	2	0	3	0-0	-	5-7	71%	0-2	0%
Antonio Burks G · 6'0" 195 · 26	7.9	0	0%	1	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Brian Cardinal F · 6'8" 240 · 29	7.0	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Hakim Warrick F · 6'9" 219 · 24	4.9	3	75%	1	0	2	1	2	0	0	1	1-1	100%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Dahntay Jones G-F · 6'6" 225 · 25	4.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Lawrence Roberts F · 6'9" 240 · 23
Anthony Roberson #3 · G · 6'2" 180 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Damon Stoudamire #20 · G · 5'10" 171 · 32	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	79	51%	36	13	11	3	13	0	7	29	10-20	50%	27-54	50%	5-13	38%

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5 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Pau Gasol F · 7'0" 250 · 26	46.1	26	52%	7	5	0	2	5	4	2	5	4-13	31%	11-20	55%	0-0	-
Bobby Jackson G · 6'1" 185 · 33	40.1	19	53%	2	4	2	0	3	2	0	2	2-2	100%	4-10	40%	3-7	43%
Shane Battier F · 6'8" 220 · 27	37.9	2	33%	6	1	3	0	0	4	3	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Eddie Jones G · 6'6" 200 · 34	36.6	16	62%	10	0	2	0	0	3	1	9	2-2	100%	4-9	44%	2-3	67%
Lorenzen Wright C · 6'11" 255 · 30	23.2	3	30%	5	0	1	0	0	1	1	4	1-2	50%	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Mike Miller G-F · 6'8" 218 · 26	32.0	10	56%	3	0	0	0	3	2	0	3	0-0	-	5-7	71%	0-2	0%
Antonio Burks G · 6'0" 195 · 26	7.9	0	0%	1	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Brian Cardinal F · 6'8" 240 · 29	7.0	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Hakim Warrick F · 6'9" 219 · 24	4.9	3	75%	1	0	2	1	2	0	0	1	1-1	100%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Dahntay Jones G-F · 6'6" 225 · 25	4.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Lawrence Roberts F · 6'9" 240 · 23
Anthony Roberson #3 · G · 6'2" 180 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Damon Stoudamire #20 · G · 5'10" 171 · 32	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	79	51%	36	13	11	3	13	0	7	29	10-20	50%	27-54	50%	5-13	38%

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2 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tim Duncan F · 6'11" 250 · 30	38.1	19	50%	13	2	2	4	3	2	4	9	3-6	50%	8-16	50%	0-0	-
Bruce Bowen F · 6'7" 200 · 35	34.9	6	75%	4	2	1	1	1	2	1	3	3-4	75%	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Tony Parker G · 6'2" 185 · 24	34.6	10	56%	3	3	0	0	5	3	0	3	2-3	67%	4-8	50%	0-0	-
Manu Ginobili G · 6'6" 205 · 28	34.3	20	67%	2	7	3	0	2	2	1	1	3-3	100%	4-9	44%	3-5	60%
Rasho Nesterovic C · 7'0" 255 · 30	18.3	0	0%	4	0	0	1	1	2	0	4	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Michael Finley G-F · 6'7" 225 · 33	28.2	12	60%	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	2	1-1	100%	1-5	20%	3-5	60%
Robert Horry F-C · 6'10" 240 · 35	25.5	9	56%	2	2	0	1	1	1	1	1	0-0	-	3-5	60%	1-3	33%
Nick Van Exel G · 6'1" 190 · 34	15.3	2	25%	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-1	0%
Nazr Mohammed C · 6'10" 250 · 28	10.7	2	25%	5	1	0	0	1	4	2	3	2-2	100%	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Brent Barry G · 6'7" 210 · 34
Beno Udrih G · 6'3" 205 · 24
Fabricio Oberto C · 6'10" 245 · 31
Sean Marks #40 · F-C · 6'10" 250 · 30	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	80	52%	36	18	7	7	15	0	9	27	14-19	74%	21-51	41%	8-16	50%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE