| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | 16% | 87 | 91 | |
 | 8 | 84% | 100 | 108 | |
| ORTG | #Poss | Pace | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 93.8 | 97 | 102.0 |
| MIN | 109.1 | 99 | 95.1 |
Scoring Opportunities
MIA
87
+8
-10
95
MIN
85
+15
-14
100
Base
ORB
TOV
Scoring Efficiency
MIA
0.95 47.4%
MIN
1.08 54.0%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %
WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS
Win Probability
Scoring Margin
Play-by-Play
| Score / WinProb | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clock | Team | Event | MIA | MIN |
| Q4 - 0:00.0 | MIN | 91 0% | 108 100% | |
| Q4 - 0:18.0 | MIA | House 21' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Allen 1 AST) | 91 0% | 108 100% |
| Q4 - 0:32.0 | MIN | Trent 7' Turnaround Jump Shot (10 PTS) | 89 0% | 108 100% |
| Q4 - 0:54.0 | MIN | Wilks REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3) | 89 0.1% | 106 99.9% |
| Q4 - 0:56.0 | MIA | MISS Allen 19' Jump Shot | 89 0.1% | 106 99.9% |
| Q4 - 1:09 | MIN | Trent Traveling Turnover (P1.T14) | 89 0.1% | 106 99.9% |
| Q4 - 1:21 | MIA | Allen Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS) | 89 0.1% | 106 99.9% |
| Q4 - 1:21 | MIA | Allen Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS) | 88 0.1% | 106 99.9% |
| Q4 - 1:21 | MIA | Allen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5) | 87 0.1% | 106 99.9% |
| Q4 - 1:23 | MIN | MISS Woods Layup | 87 0.1% | 106 99.9% |
| Q4 - 1:24 | MIN | Woods REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0) | 87 0.1% | 106 99.9% |
| Q4 - 1:25 | MIN | MISS Jackson 8' Jump Shot | 87 0.1% | 106 99.9% |
| Q4 - 1:42 | MIA | Allen 20' Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Lampley 1 AST) | 87 0.1% | 106 99.9% |
| Q4 - 1:50 | MIN | Trent 16' Turnaround Jump Shot (8 PTS) | 85 0.1% | 106 99.9% |
| Q4 - 2:15 | MIN | Trent REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4) | 85 0.1% | 104 99.9% |
| Q4 - 2:16 | MIA | MISS Allen 8' Jump Shot | 85 0.1% | 104 99.9% |
| Q4 - 2:33 | MIA | Lampley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 85 0.1% | 104 99.9% |
| Q4 - 2:34 | MIN | MISS Gill Layup | 85 0.1% | 104 99.9% |
| Q4 - 2:37 | MIA | Gill STEAL (1 STL) | 85 0.1% | 104 99.9% |
| Q4 - 2:54 | MIN | Jackson Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T13) | 85 0.1% | 104 99.9% |
| Q4 - 3:17 | MIA | Butler Free Throw 2 of 2 (21 PTS) | 85 0.1% | 104 99.9% |
| Q4 - 3:17 | MIA | Butler Free Throw 1 of 2 (20 PTS) | 84 0.1% | 104 99.9% |
| Q4 - 3:17 | MIA | Heat Rebound | 83 0.1% | 104 99.9% |
| Q4 - 3:18 | MIA | MISS James Layup | 83 0.1% | 104 99.9% |
| Q4 - 3:23 | MIA | Butler REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5) | 83 0.1% | 104 99.9% |
| Q4 - 3:25 | MIN | MISS Gill 20' Jump Shot | 83 0.1% | 104 99.9% |
| Q4 - 3:38 | MIA | Butler 17' Jump Shot (19 PTS) (Carter 15 AST) | 83 0.1% | 104 99.9% |
| Q4 - 3:43 | MIA | Johnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 81 0.1% | 104 99.9% |
| Q4 - 3:45 | MIN | MISS Wilks 7' Jump Shot | 81 0.1% | 104 99.9% |
| Q4 - 3:56 | MIA | Butler Free Throw 1 of 1 (17 PTS) | 81 0.1% | 104 99.9% |
| Q4 - 3:56 | MIA | Butler Layup (16 PTS) (Carter 14 AST) | 80 0.1% | 104 99.9% |
| Q4 - 4:03 | MIN | Gill 7' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Woods 1 AST) | 78 0.1% | 104 99.9% |
| Q4 - 4:18 | MIN | Trent REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3) | 78 0.1% | 102 99.9% |
| Q4 - 4:20 | MIA | MISS Carter 17' Jump Shot | 78 0.1% | 102 99.9% |
| Q4 - 4:40 | MIN | Garnett Traveling Turnover (P2.T12) | 78 0.1% | 102 99.9% |
| Q4 - 5:01 | MIN | Trent REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 78 0.1% | 102 99.9% |
| Q4 - 5:03 | MIA | MISS Allen 20' Jump Shot | 78 0.1% | 102 99.9% |
| Q4 - 5:11 | MIA | Heat Rebound | 78 0.1% | 102 99.9% |
| Q4 - 5:12 | MIA | MISS Grant Layup | 78 0.1% | 102 99.9% |
| Q4 - 5:22 | MIN | Garnett 18' Jump Shot (26 PTS) | 78 0.1% | 102 99.9% |
| Q4 - 5:28 | MIN | Gill REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6) | 78 0.1% | 100 99.9% |
| Q4 - 5:31 | MIA | MISS Allen 5' Jump Shot | 78 0.1% | 100 99.9% |
| Q4 - 5:55 | MIN | Garnett 8' Turnaround Jump Shot (24 PTS) (Gill 3 AST) | 78 0.1% | 100 99.9% |
| Q4 - 6:10 | MIN | Garnett REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7) | 78 0.1% | 98 99.9% |
| Q4 - 6:12 | MIA | MISS Stepania 16' Jump Shot | 78 0.1% | 98 99.9% |
| Q4 - 6:28 | MIA | Grant REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3) | 78 0.1% | 98 99.9% |
| Q4 - 6:29 | MIN | MISS Smith Layup | 78 0.1% | 98 99.9% |
| Q4 - 6:32 | MIN | Smith REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3) | 78 0.1% | 98 99.9% |
| Q4 - 6:33 | MIN | MISS Gill 8' Jump Shot | 78 0.1% | 98 99.9% |
| Q4 - 6:55 | MIN | Gill REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5) | 78 0.1% | 98 99.9% |
| Q4 - 6:57 | MIA | MISS Butler 25' 3PT Jump Shot | 78 0.1% | 98 99.9% |
| Q4 - 7:28 | MIN | Trent 15' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Garnett 8 AST) | 78 0.1% | 98 99.9% |
| Q4 - 7:41 | MIA | Best 10' Jump Shot (6 PTS) | 78 0.2% | 96 99.8% |
| Q4 - 7:50 | MIA | Grant REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2) | 76 0.1% | 96 99.9% |
| Q4 - 7:52 | MIN | MISS Garnett 16' Jump Shot | 76 0.1% | 96 99.9% |
| Q4 - 8:04 | MIN | Gill REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4) | 76 0.1% | 96 99.9% |
| Q4 - 8:05 | MIA | MISS Best 26' 3PT Jump Shot | 76 0.2% | 96 99.8% |
| Q4 - 8:29 | MIN | Trent Driving Dunk (4 PTS) (Garnett 7 AST) | 76 0.2% | 96 99.8% |
| Q4 - 8:41 | MIA | Butler 20' Jump Shot (14 PTS) | 76 0.2% | 94 99.8% |
| Q4 - 9:00 | MIN | Wilks 17' Running Jump Shot (2 PTS) | 74 0.2% | 94 99.8% |
| Q4 - 9:08 | MIN | Wilks REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2) | 74 0.3% | 92 99.7% |
| Q4 - 9:10 | MIA | MISS House 15' Jump Shot | 74 0.3% | 92 99.7% |
| Q4 - 9:23 | MIA | Stepania REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1) | 74 0.4% | 92 99.6% |
| Q4 - 9:25 | MIN | MISS Trent 15' Jump Shot | 74 0.4% | 92 99.6% |
| Q4 - 9:40 | MIA | MISS Stepania Free Throw 1 of 1 | 74 0.3% | 92 99.7% |
| Q4 - 9:40 | MIA | Stepania Layup (7 PTS) | 74 0.3% | 92 99.7% |
| Q4 - 9:49 | MIA | Butler REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4) | 72 0.2% | 92 99.8% |
| Q4 - 9:50 | MIN | MISS Jackson 6' Jump Shot | 72 0.2% | 92 99.8% |
| Q4 - 9:54 | MIN | Garnett REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6) | 72 0.2% | 92 99.8% |
| Q4 - 9:55 | MIN | MISS Wilks 13' Jump Shot | 72 0.2% | 92 99.8% |
| Q4 - 9:56 | MIN | Wilks REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1) | 72 0.2% | 92 99.8% |
| Q4 - 9:58 | MIN | MISS Gill 5' Jump Shot | 72 0.2% | 92 99.8% |
| Q4 - 10:20 | MIA | Stepania Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS) | 72 0.2% | 92 99.8% |
| Q4 - 10:20 | MIA | Stepania Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS) | 71 0.2% | 92 99.8% |
| Q4 - 10:33 | MIN | Szczerbiak Reverse Layup (26 PTS) (Gill 2 AST) | 70 0.2% | 92 99.8% |
| Q4 - 10:38 | MIN | Hudson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7) | 70 0.2% | 90 99.8% |
| Q4 - 10:40 | MIA | MISS House 26' 3PT Jump Shot | 70 0.3% | 90 99.7% |
| Q4 - 11:06 | MIN | Szczerbiak 24' 3PT Jump Shot (24 PTS) (Gill 1 AST) | 70 0.4% | 90 99.6% |
| Q4 - 11:20 | MIN | TIMBERWOLVES Rebound | 70 0.6% | 87 99.4% |
| Q4 - 11:21 | MIA | MISS Allen 17' Jump Shot | 70 0.6% | 87 99.4% |
| Q4 - 11:30 | MIA | House REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 70 0.7% | 87 99.3% |
| Q4 - 11:31 | MIN | MISS Gill 20' Jump Shot | 70 0.7% | 87 99.3% |
| Q4 - 11:34 | MIN | Jackson REBOUND (Off:6 Def:4) | 70 0.6% | 87 99.4% |
| Q4 - 11:36 | MIN | MISS Trent 9' Jump Shot | 70 0.7% | 87 99.3% |
| Q3 - 0:00.0 | MIA | 70 0.6% | 87 99.4% | |
| Q3 - 0:00.0 | MIA | Allen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4) | 70 0.7% | 87 99.3% |
| Q3 - 0:01.0 | MIN | MISS Hudson Layup | 70 0.8% | 87 99.2% |
| Q3 - 0:18.0 | MIA | House 21' Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Best 1 AST) | 70 0.7% | 87 99.3% |
| Q3 - 0:33.0 | MIN | Szczerbiak Free Throw 2 of 2 (21 PTS) | 68 0.6% | 87 99.4% |
| Q3 - 0:33.0 | MIN | Szczerbiak Free Throw 1 of 2 (20 PTS) | 68 0.6% | 86 99.4% |
| Q3 - 0:34.0 | MIN | Szczerbiak REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3) | 68 0.7% | 85 99.3% |
| Q3 - 0:36.0 | MIN | MISS Gill 10' Jump Shot | 68 0.8% | 85 99.2% |
| Q3 - 0:49.0 | MIN | Jackson REBOUND (Off:5 Def:4) | 68 0.7% | 85 99.3% |
| Q3 - 0:51.0 | MIA | MISS Allen 11' Jump Shot | 68 0.7% | 85 99.3% |
| Q3 - 1:02 | MIN | Jackson Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS) | 68 1.0% | 85 99.0% |
| Q3 - 1:02 | MIN | Jackson Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS) | 68 1.0% | 84 99.0% |
| Q3 - 1:02 | MIN | TIMBERWOLVES Rebound | 68 1.2% | 83 98.8% |
| Q3 - 1:03 | MIA | MISS Best 24' 3PT Jump Shot | 68 1.2% | 83 98.8% |
| Q3 - 1:25 | MIN | Hudson 17' Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Szczerbiak 4 AST) | 68 1.4% | 83 98.6% |
| Q3 - 1:27 | MIN | TIMBERWOLVES Rebound | 68 1.7% | 81 98.3% |
| Q3 - 1:28 | MIN | MISS Hudson Layup | 68 2.0% | 81 98.0% |
| Q3 - 1:37 | MIN | Gill REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3) | 68 1.7% | 81 98.3% |
| Q3 - 1:39 | MIA | MISS Stepania 19' Jump Shot | 68 1.8% | 81 98.2% |
| Q3 - 2:00 | MIN | Szczerbiak 15' Turnaround Jump Shot (19 PTS) | 68 2.1% | 81 97.9% |
| Q3 - 2:14 | MIN | Garnett REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6) | 68 2.7% | 79 97.3% |
| Q3 - 2:16 | MIA | Garnett BLOCK (2 BLK) | 68 2.8% | 79 97.2% |
| Q3 - 2:28 | MIA | Allen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3) | 68 3.2% | 79 96.8% |
| Q3 - 2:30 | MIN | MISS Garnett 10' Jump Shot | 68 3.0% | 79 97.0% |
| Q3 - 2:44 | MIN | Jackson REBOUND (Off:5 Def:3) | 68 2.6% | 79 97.4% |
| Q3 - 2:45 | MIA | Jackson BLOCK (2 BLK) | 68 2.8% | 79 97.2% |
| Q3 - 2:52 | MIN | Hudson Bad Pass Turnover (P5.T11) | 68 3.2% | 79 96.8% |
| Q3 - 3:10 | MIA | Butler 7' Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Carter 13 AST) | 68 2.9% | 79 97.1% |
| Q3 - 3:14 | MIA | Carter REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 66 2.4% | 79 97.6% |
| Q3 - 3:17 | MIN | MISS Peeler 12' Jump Shot | 66 2.3% | 79 97.7% |
| Q3 - 3:23 | MIN | Hudson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6) | 66 2.0% | 79 98.0% |
| Q3 - 3:25 | MIA | MISS Allen 16' Jump Shot | 66 2.1% | 79 97.9% |
| Q3 - 3:51 | MIN | Peeler 25' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Jackson 3 AST) | 66 2.4% | 79 97.6% |
| Q3 - 4:07 | MIA | Allen Free Throw 1 of 1 (7 PTS) | 66 3.5% | 76 96.5% |
| Q3 - 4:07 | MIA | Allen Layup (6 PTS) (Carter 12 AST) | 65 2.9% | 76 97.1% |
| Q3 - 4:17 | MIA | Allen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 63 2.5% | 76 97.5% |
| Q3 - 4:19 | MIN | MISS Jackson Layup | 63 2.4% | 76 97.6% |
| Q3 - 4:19 | MIN | Jackson REBOUND (Off:5 Def:2) | 63 2.1% | 76 97.9% |
| Q3 - 4:23 | MIN | Jackson REBOUND (Off:4 Def:2) | 63 2.1% | 76 97.9% |
| Q3 - 4:23 | MIN | MISS Jackson Tip Shot | 63 2.4% | 76 97.6% |
| Q3 - 4:24 | MIN | MISS Jackson Layup | 63 2.4% | 76 97.6% |
| Q3 - 4:44 | MIA | Allen 16' Fadeaway Jumper (4 PTS) (Butler 6 AST) | 63 2.1% | 76 97.9% |
| Q3 - 5:05 | MIN | Szczerbiak Free Throw 1 of 1 (17 PTS) | 61 2.0% | 76 98.0% |
| Q3 - 5:05 | MIN | Szczerbiak Layup (16 PTS) (Garnett 6 AST) | 61 2.3% | 75 97.7% |
| Q3 - 5:32 | MIA | Butler Layup (6 PTS) (Carter 11 AST) | 61 2.7% | 73 97.3% |
| Q3 - 5:39 | MIN | Hudson Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T10) | 59 2.3% | 73 97.7% |
| Q3 - 5:48 | MIN | Smith REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3) | 59 1.9% | 73 98.1% |
| Q3 - 5:49 | MIA | MISS Ellis 7' Jump Shot | 59 2.0% | 73 98.0% |
| Q3 - 6:02 | MIN | Garnett Free Throw 2 of 2 (22 PTS) | 59 2.4% | 73 97.6% |
| Q3 - 6:02 | MIN | Garnett Free Throw 1 of 2 (21 PTS) | 59 2.5% | 72 97.5% |
| Q3 - 6:20 | MIA | Ellis 6' Turnaround Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Carter 10 AST) | 59 2.8% | 71 97.2% |
| Q3 - 6:36 | MIN | Smith Layup (9 PTS) (Garnett 5 AST) | 57 2.4% | 71 97.6% |
| Q3 - 6:50 | MIA | Butler Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS) | 57 2.8% | 69 97.2% |
| Q3 - 6:50 | MIA | Butler Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS) | 56 2.7% | 69 97.3% |
| Q3 - 7:02 | MIN | Hudson 26' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) | 55 2.6% | 69 97.4% |
| Q3 - 7:12 | MIN | Peeler REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 55 3.4% | 66 96.6% |
| Q3 - 7:14 | MIA | MISS Butler 14' Jump Shot | 55 3.6% | 66 96.4% |
| Q3 - 7:20 | MIN | Szczerbiak 22' Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Garnett 4 AST) | 55 4.0% | 66 96.0% |
| Q3 - 7:33 | MIN | Hudson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5) | 55 4.6% | 64 95.4% |
| Q3 - 7:34 | MIA | MISS Ellis 18' Jump Shot | 55 4.8% | 64 95.2% |
| Q3 - 7:44 | MIA | Butler REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5) | 55 5.4% | 64 94.6% |
| Q3 - 7:46 | MIN | MISS Garnett 21' Jump Shot | 55 5.2% | 64 94.8% |
| Q3 - 8:04 | MIA | Grant 5' Hook Shot (10 PTS) | 55 4.7% | 64 95.3% |
| Q3 - 8:06 | MIA | Grant REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1) | 53 4.1% | 64 95.9% |
| Q3 - 8:09 | MIA | MISS Butler 23' Jump Shot | 53 3.7% | 64 96.3% |
| Q3 - 8:29 | MIN | Garnett Free Throw 2 of 2 (20 PTS) | 53 4.1% | 64 95.9% |
| Q3 - 8:29 | MIN | Garnett Free Throw 1 of 2 (19 PTS) | 53 4.3% | 63 95.7% |
| Q3 - 8:47 | MIA | Ellis 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Butler 5 AST) | 53 4.7% | 62 95.3% |
| Q3 - 9:01 | MIN | Hudson Foul Turnover (P3.T9) | 50 3.6% | 62 96.4% |
| Q3 - 9:10 | MIN | Hudson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4) | 50 3.1% | 62 96.9% |
| Q3 - 9:12 | MIA | MISS Grant 20' Jump Shot | 50 3.2% | 62 96.8% |
| Q3 - 9:31 | MIN | Garnett Reverse Layup (18 PTS) | 50 3.6% | 62 96.4% |
| Q3 - 9:50 | MIA | Grant 20' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Carter 9 AST) | 50 4.1% | 60 95.9% |
| Q3 - 10:06 | MIN | Smith 20' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Szczerbiak 3 AST) | 48 3.6% | 60 96.4% |
| Q3 - 10:22 | MIA | Carter Driving Layup (6 PTS) | 48 4.1% | 58 95.9% |
| Q3 - 10:27 | MIN | Szczerbiak Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T8) | 46 3.6% | 58 96.4% |
| Q3 - 10:44 | MIA | Butler Foul Turnover (P5.T9) | 46 3.1% | 58 96.9% |
| Q3 - 10:51 | MIN | Garnett 20' Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Hudson 2 AST) | 46 3.6% | 58 96.4% |
| Q3 - 11:05 | MIN | Smith REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2) | 46 4.1% | 56 95.9% |
| Q3 - 11:08 | MIA | MISS Ellis 3PT Jump Shot | 46 4.3% | 56 95.7% |
| Q3 - 11:20 | MIA | Butler REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3) | 46 4.7% | 56 95.3% |
| Q3 - 11:22 | MIN | MISS Hudson 23' Jump Shot | 46 4.5% | 56 95.5% |
| Q3 - 11:38 | MIN | Szczerbiak REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3) | 46 4.1% | 56 95.9% |
| Q3 - 11:40 | MIA | MISS Butler 20' Jump Shot | 46 4.3% | 56 95.7% |
| Q2 - 0:00.0 | MIN | 46 4.7% | 56 95.3% | |
| Q2 - 0:02.0 | MIA | House 14' Running Jump Shot (7 PTS) | 46 4.4% | 56 95.6% |
| Q2 - 0:24.0 | MIN | Szczerbiak 13' Running Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Peeler 6 AST) | 44 3.7% | 56 96.3% |
| Q2 - 0:39.0 | MIN | Garnett REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5) | 44 4.4% | 54 95.6% |
| Q2 - 0:41.0 | MIA | MISS Allen 19' Jump Shot | 44 4.5% | 54 95.5% |
| Q2 - 0:52.0 | MIN | Garnett Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS) | 44 4.8% | 54 95.2% |
| Q2 - 0:52.0 | MIN | Garnett Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS) | 44 4.9% | 53 95.1% |
| Q2 - 1:08 | MIA | Grant 17' Turnaround Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Carter 8 AST) | 44 5.9% | 52 94.1% |
| Q2 - 1:20 | MIA | House REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 42 4.9% | 52 95.1% |
| Q2 - 1:21 | MIN | MISS Garnett 22' Jump Shot | 42 4.8% | 52 95.2% |
| Q2 - 1:38 | MIA | House 19' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Carter 7 AST) | 42 4.6% | 52 95.4% |
| Q2 - 1:49 | MIA | Grant REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1) | 40 3.9% | 52 96.1% |
| Q2 - 1:51 | MIA | MISS Butler 3PT Jump Shot | 40 3.7% | 52 96.3% |
| Q2 - 2:15 | MIN | MISS Garnett Free Throw 1 of 1 | 40 4.0% | 52 96.0% |
| Q2 - 2:15 | MIN | Garnett 17' Turnaround Jump Shot (12 PTS) | 40 4.1% | 52 95.9% |
| Q2 - 2:33 | MIA | Ellis 15' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Carter 6 AST) | 40 4.7% | 50 95.3% |
| Q2 - 2:46 | MIN | Hudson Driving Layup (12 PTS) (Szczerbiak 2 AST) | 38 4.1% | 50 95.9% |
| Q2 - 2:53 | MIN | Hudson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3) | 38 4.7% | 48 95.3% |
| Q2 - 2:55 | MIA | MISS Butler 13' Jump Shot | 38 4.8% | 48 95.2% |
| Q2 - 3:19 | MIA | Heat Rebound | 38 5.4% | 48 94.6% |
| Q2 - 3:20 | MIN | MISS Szczerbiak 25' 3PT Jump Shot | 38 5.2% | 48 94.8% |
| Q2 - 3:52 | MIA | House 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Carter 5 AST) | 38 4.7% | 48 95.3% |
| Q2 - 4:07 | MIN | Peeler 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Hudson 1 AST) | 35 3.9% | 48 96.1% |
| Q2 - 4:15 | MIN | Smith REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1) | 35 4.8% | 45 95.2% |
| Q2 - 4:17 | MIA | MISS Ellis 24' Jump Shot | 35 5.0% | 45 95.0% |
| Q2 - 4:27 | MIN | Trent 11' Turnaround Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Peeler 5 AST) | 35 5.4% | 45 94.6% |
| Q2 - 4:41 | MIA | Carter 13' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Butler 2 AST) | 35 6.0% | 43 94.0% |
| Q2 - 4:54 | MIN | Jackson Foul Turnover (P1.T7) | 33 5.4% | 43 94.6% |
| Q2 - 4:56 | MIN | Jackson REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2) | 33 4.8% | 43 95.2% |
| Q2 - 4:57 | MIN | MISS Hudson 18' Jump Shot | 33 5.2% | 43 94.8% |
| Q2 - 5:17 | MIA | Grant Layup (4 PTS) (Carter 4 AST) | 33 4.8% | 43 95.2% |
| Q2 - 5:24 | MIN | Hudson Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T6) | 31 4.4% | 43 95.6% |
| Q2 - 5:27 | MIN | Jackson REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2) | 31 3.9% | 43 96.1% |
| Q2 - 5:28 | MIN | MISS Peeler 3PT Jump Shot | 31 4.2% | 43 95.8% |
| Q2 - 5:41 | MIA | Ellis Free Throw 1 of 1 (6 PTS) | 31 3.9% | 43 96.1% |
| Q2 - 5:41 | MIA | Ellis Layup (5 PTS) (Carter 3 AST) | 30 3.5% | 43 96.5% |
| Q2 - 5:52 | MIN | Hudson Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T5) | 28 3.1% | 43 96.9% |
| Q2 - 6:14 | MIN | Szczerbiak REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 28 2.9% | 43 97.1% |
| Q2 - 6:16 | MIA | MISS Allen 18' Jump Shot | 28 3.0% | 43 97.0% |
| Q2 - 6:28 | MIN | Jackson 20' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Szczerbiak 1 AST) | 28 3.3% | 43 96.7% |
| Q2 - 6:38 | MIN | Hudson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 28 3.6% | 41 96.4% |
| Q2 - 6:40 | MIA | MISS James 25' 3PT Jump Shot | 28 3.7% | 41 96.3% |
| Q2 - 7:04 | MIN | Hudson Free Throw 1 of 1 (10 PTS) | 28 4.2% | 41 95.8% |
| Q2 - 7:04 | MIN | Hudson Driving Layup (9 PTS) | 28 4.7% | 40 95.3% |
| Q2 - 7:17 | MIA | Allen 15' Turnaround Jump Shot (2 PTS) (James 1 AST) | 28 5.1% | 38 94.9% |
| Q2 - 7:35 | MIN | Jackson 19' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Trent 1 AST) | 26 4.6% | 38 95.4% |
| Q2 - 7:49 | MIN | Jackson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2) | 26 5.1% | 36 94.9% |
| Q2 - 7:50 | MIA | MISS Best 3PT Jump Shot | 26 5.3% | 36 94.7% |
| Q2 - 8:05 | MIA | Butler REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 26 5.8% | 36 94.2% |
| Q2 - 8:07 | MIN | MISS Gill Layup | 26 5.6% | 36 94.4% |
| Q2 - 8:10 | MIN | Hudson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 26 5.1% | 36 94.9% |
| Q2 - 8:12 | MIA | Jackson BLOCK (1 BLK) | 26 5.3% | 36 94.7% |
| Q2 - 8:27 | MIA | Butler REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 26 5.8% | 36 94.2% |
| Q2 - 8:28 | MIN | MISS Trent 17' Jump Shot | 26 5.6% | 36 94.4% |
| Q2 - 8:43 | MIA | Stepania Free Throw 2 of 2 (3 PTS) | 26 5.2% | 36 94.8% |
| Q2 - 8:43 | MIA | MISS Stepania Free Throw 1 of 2 | 25 5.0% | 36 95.0% |
| Q2 - 8:56 | MIN | Garnett Alley Oop Dunk (10 PTS) (Peeler 4 AST) | 25 5.2% | 36 94.8% |
| Q2 - 9:14 | MIA | Stepania Dunk (2 PTS) (Butler 4 AST) | 25 5.7% | 34 94.3% |
| Q2 - 9:21 | MIA | Allen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 23 5.3% | 34 94.7% |
| Q2 - 9:22 | MIN | MISS Gill Layup | 23 5.1% | 34 94.9% |
| Q2 - 9:28 | MIN | Garnett REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4) | 23 4.7% | 34 95.3% |
| Q2 - 9:31 | MIA | Wilks BLOCK (1 BLK) | 23 4.9% | 34 95.1% |
| Q2 - 9:36 | MIN | Peeler Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T4) | 23 5.3% | 34 94.7% |
| Q2 - 9:41 | MIN | Jackson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1) | 23 4.7% | 34 95.3% |
| Q2 - 9:45 | MIA | MISS James 26' 3PT Jump Shot | 23 4.9% | 34 95.1% |
| Q2 - 10:12 | MIN | Jackson Layup (4 PTS) (Garnett 3 AST) | 23 5.4% | 34 94.6% |
| Q2 - 10:31 | MIN | Garnett REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3) | 23 5.8% | 32 94.2% |
| Q2 - 10:32 | MIA | MISS Stepania 17' Jump Shot | 23 6.0% | 32 94.0% |
| Q2 - 10:47 | MIA | Stepania REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0) | 23 6.5% | 32 93.5% |
| Q2 - 10:49 | MIA | MISS Butler 21' Jump Shot | 23 6.0% | 32 94.0% |
| Q2 - 11:20 | MIN | Garnett 18' Fadeaway Jumper (8 PTS) | 23 6.4% | 32 93.6% |
| Q2 - 11:42 | MIN | Gill REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 23 7.0% | 30 93.0% |
| Q2 - 11:44 | MIA | Peeler BLOCK (1 BLK) | 23 7.2% | 30 92.8% |
| Q1 - 0:00.0 | MIN | 23 7.6% | 30 92.4% | |
| Q1 - 0:02.0 | MIN | Szczerbiak REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 23 7.1% | 30 92.9% |
| Q1 - 0:04.0 | MIA | MISS Allen 19' Jump Shot | 23 7.2% | 30 92.8% |
| Q1 - 0:21.0 | MIA | James REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 23 7.6% | 30 92.4% |
| Q1 - 0:23.0 | MIN | MISS Szczerbiak 22' Jump Shot | 23 7.4% | 30 92.6% |
| Q1 - 0:37.0 | MIA | Butler Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS) | 23 7.1% | 30 92.9% |
| Q1 - 0:37.0 | MIA | Butler Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS) | 22 7.0% | 30 93.0% |
| Q1 - 0:37.0 | MIN | Gill Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T3) | 21 6.3% | 30 93.7% |
| Q1 - 0:39.0 | MIN | Gill REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 21 5.9% | 30 94.1% |
| Q1 - 0:41.0 | MIA | MISS Butler 3PT Jump Shot | 21 6.0% | 30 94.0% |
| Q1 - 0:55.0 | MIN | Jackson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0) | 21 6.3% | 30 93.7% |
| Q1 - 0:55.0 | MIN | Jackson Tip Shot (2 PTS) | 21 6.3% | 30 93.7% |
| Q1 - 0:56.0 | MIN | MISS Gill Layup | 21 7.4% | 28 92.6% |
| Q1 - 1:07 | MIN | Wilks REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 21 7.1% | 28 92.9% |
| Q1 - 1:09 | MIA | MISS Butler 13' Jump Shot | 21 7.2% | 28 92.8% |
| Q1 - 1:23 | MIA | Butler REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3) | 21 7.6% | 28 92.4% |
| Q1 - 1:25 | MIN | MISS Jackson 21' Jump Shot | 21 7.4% | 28 92.6% |
| Q1 - 1:42 | MIA | Best Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T8) | 21 7.1% | 28 92.9% |
| Q1 - 2:05 | MIN | Garnett Slam Dunk (6 PTS) (Jackson 2 AST) | 21 7.7% | 28 92.3% |
| Q1 - 2:19 | MIA | Butler 24' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Butler 1 AST) | 21 8.4% | 26 91.6% |
| Q1 - 2:30 | MIA | Grant REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1) | 18 7.0% | 26 93.0% |
| Q1 - 2:32 | MIN | MISS Hudson 20' Jump Shot | 18 6.8% | 26 93.2% |
| Q1 - 2:37 | MIA | Garnett STEAL (1 STL) | 18 6.5% | 26 93.5% |
| Q1 - 2:52 | MIN | Hudson 25' 3PT Running Jump Shot (7 PTS) | 18 7.0% | 26 93.0% |
| Q1 - 3:18 | MIA | Best 20' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Butler 3 AST) | 18 8.3% | 23 91.7% |
| Q1 - 3:32 | MIN | Garnett Alley Oop Dunk (4 PTS) (Jackson 1 AST) | 16 7.7% | 23 92.3% |
| Q1 - 3:45 | MIA | Best 12' Running Jump Shot (2 PTS) | 16 8.3% | 21 91.7% |
| Q1 - 4:02 | MIN | Smith Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS) | 14 7.6% | 21 92.4% |
| Q1 - 4:02 | MIN | Smith Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS) | 14 7.7% | 20 92.3% |
| Q1 - 4:14 | MIN | Garnett REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 14 8.2% | 19 91.8% |
| Q1 - 4:15 | MIA | MISS Ellis 6' Jump Shot | 14 8.4% | 19 91.6% |
| Q1 - 4:17 | MIA | Ellis REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2) | 14 9.0% | 19 91.0% |
| Q1 - 4:19 | MIA | MISS Butler 3PT Jump Shot | 14 8.4% | 19 91.6% |
| Q1 - 4:35 | MIN | Szczerbiak 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Peeler 3 AST) | 14 9.0% | 19 91.0% |
| Q1 - 4:53 | MIA | Butler Layup (2 PTS) (Carter 2 AST) | 14 10.4% | 16 89.6% |
| Q1 - 4:58 | MIA | Ellis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2) | 12 9.8% | 16 90.2% |
| Q1 - 4:59 | MIN | MISS Hudson 8' Jump Shot | 12 9.5% | 16 90.5% |
| Q1 - 5:05 | MIN | Garnett REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 12 8.8% | 16 91.2% |
| Q1 - 5:07 | MIA | MISS Carter 18' Jump Shot | 12 9.0% | 16 91.0% |
| Q1 - 5:20 | MIA | Ellis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1) | 12 9.5% | 16 90.5% |
| Q1 - 5:23 | MIA | MISS Carter 20' Jump Shot | 12 9.0% | 16 91.0% |
| Q1 - 5:40 | MIN | Hudson Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS) | 12 9.5% | 16 90.5% |
| Q1 - 5:40 | MIN | Hudson Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS) | 12 9.6% | 15 90.4% |
| Q1 - 5:45 | MIA | Peeler STEAL (3 STL) | 12 10.2% | 14 89.8% |
| Q1 - 5:59 | MIN | Szczerbiak Free Throw 1 of 1 (7 PTS) | 12 11.1% | 14 88.9% |
| Q1 - 5:59 | MIN | Szczerbiak Driving Layup (6 PTS) (Peeler 2 AST) | 12 12.0% | 13 88.0% |
| Q1 - 6:02 | MIA | Peeler STEAL (2 STL) | 12 12.6% | 11 87.4% |
| Q1 - 6:17 | MIA | Butler REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 12 13.6% | 11 86.4% |
| Q1 - 6:18 | MIN | MISS Smith Layup | 12 13.3% | 11 86.7% |
| Q1 - 6:30 | MIA | Grant REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0) | 12 12.6% | 11 87.4% |
| Q1 - 6:30 | MIA | Grant 10' Jump Shot (2 PTS) | 12 12.6% | 11 87.4% |
| Q1 - 6:34 | MIA | Garnett BLOCK (1 BLK) | 10 11.2% | 11 88.8% |
| Q1 - 6:47 | MIN | Szczerbiak 20' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Garnett 2 AST) | 10 11.8% | 11 88.2% |
| Q1 - 6:59 | MIA | Butler Foul Turnover (P2.T4) | 10 12.6% | 9 87.4% |
| Q1 - 7:15 | MIN | Hudson Driving Layup (2 PTS) | 10 13.2% | 9 86.8% |
| Q1 - 7:30 | MIA | Szczerbiak STEAL (1 STL) | 10 14.1% | 7 85.9% |
| Q1 - 7:36 | MIN | Szczerbiak Layup (2 PTS) (Peeler 1 AST) | 10 15.1% | 7 84.9% |
| Q1 - 7:44 | MIA | Peeler STEAL (1 STL) | 10 16.0% | 5 84.0% |
| Q1 - 7:48 | MIN | Garnett Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T2) | 10 17.2% | 5 82.8% |
| Q1 - 8:09 | MIA | Butler 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Carter 1 AST) | 10 15.7% | 5 84.3% |
| Q1 - 8:32 | MIN | Smith Layup (3 PTS) (Garnett 1 AST) | 7 13.9% | 5 86.1% |
| Q1 - 8:42 | MIN | TIMBERWOLVES Rebound | 7 14.7% | 3 85.3% |
| Q1 - 8:43 | MIA | MISS Ellis 26' 3PT Jump Shot | 7 15.0% | 3 85.0% |
| Q1 - 8:52 | MIN | Garnett 11' Turnaround Jump Shot (2 PTS) | 7 15.8% | 3 84.2% |
| Q1 - 9:07 | MIA | Butler Traveling Turnover (P1.T1) | 7 16.5% | 1 83.5% |
| Q1 - 9:17 | MIA | Ellis REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 7 17.8% | 1 82.2% |
| Q1 - 9:19 | MIN | MISS Garnett 17' Jump Shot | 7 17.4% | 1 82.6% |
| Q1 - 9:36 | MIA | Carter Running Layup (2 PTS) (Butler 2 AST) | 7 16.5% | 1 83.5% |
| Q1 - 9:40 | MIN | Peeler Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1) | 5 15.7% | 1 84.3% |
| Q1 - 9:51 | MIA | Ellis 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Butler 1 AST) | 5 14.5% | 1 85.5% |
| Q1 - 10:06 | MIN | Smith Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS) | 2 12.8% | 1 87.2% |
| Q1 - 10:06 | MIN | MISS Smith Free Throw 1 of 2 | 2 12.9% | 0 87.1% |
| Q1 - 10:07 | MIN | Smith REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0) | 2 12.7% | 0 87.3% |
| Q1 - 10:08 | MIN | MISS Smith Layup | 2 13.3% | 0 86.7% |
| Q1 - 10:28 | MIN | Peeler REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 2 12.7% | 0 87.3% |
| Q1 - 10:30 | MIA | MISS Grant 18' Jump Shot | 2 13.0% | 0 87.0% |
| Q1 - 10:43 | MIA | Butler REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 2 13.7% | 0 86.3% |
| Q1 - 10:45 | MIN | MISS Smith 17' Jump Shot | 2 13.3% | 0 86.7% |
| Q1 - 10:53 | MIN | Smith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0) | 2 12.7% | 0 87.3% |
| Q1 - 10:55 | MIN | MISS Szczerbiak 17' Jump Shot | 2 13.3% | 0 86.7% |
| Q1 - 11:07 | MIA | Butler 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS) | 2 12.7% | 0 87.3% |
| Q1 - 11:25 | MIA | Heat Rebound | 0 11.8% | 0 88.2% |
| Q1 - 11:27 | MIN | MISS Peeler 22' Jump Shot | 0 11.6% | 0 88.4% |
| Q1 - 11:41 | MIN | TIMBERWOLVES Rebound | 0 11.1% | 0 88.9% |
| Q1 - 11:42 | MIN | MISS Hudson 21' Jump Shot | 0 11.6% | 0 88.4% |
| Q1 - 12:00 | MIN | Jump Ball Garnett vs. Grant: Tip to Hudson | 0 11.1% | 0 88.9% |
SHOOTING
Scoring Efficiency
MIA
0.95 47.4%
MIN
1.08 54.0%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %
Scoring by Shot Type
At the Rim (within 5 feet)
MIA
8
17
47%
MIN
16
30
53%
Midrange
MIA
23
51
45%
MIN
20
47
43%
3PT | Effective 3PT
MIA
5
7.5
17
29%
44%
MIN
6
9.0
8
75%
113%
Free Throws
MIA
14
16
88%
MIN
18
20
90%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency Misses
Bars scaled to point value.
Total Points
| Heat| PLAYER | PTS | TS% | TSM / TSA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Butler | 21 | 62% | 10.5 / 17 | |
| L. Ellis | 13 | 54% | 6.5 / 12 | |
| M. Allen | 11 | 34% | 5.5 / 16 | |
| E. House | 11 | 79% | 5.5 / 7 | |
| B. Grant | 10 | 56% | 5.0 / 9 | |
| V. Stepania | 7 | 35% | 3.5 / 10 | |
| R. Butler | 6 | 38% | 3.0 / 8 | |
| A. Carter | 6 | 50% | 3.0 / 6 | |
| T. Best | 6 | 50% | 3.0 / 6 | |
| M. James | 0 | - | 0.0 / 4 |
TS Makes
TS Misses
Total Points
| Timberwolves| PLAYER | PTS | TS% | TSM / TSA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Garnett | 26 | 68% | 13.0 / 19 | |
| W. Szczerbiak | 26 | 81% | 13.0 / 16 | |
| T. Hudson | 17 | 57% | 8.5 / 15 | |
| M. Jackson | 10 | 45% | 5.0 / 11 | |
| G. Trent | 10 | 63% | 5.0 / 8 | |
| J. Smith | 9 | 50% | 4.5 / 9 | |
| A. Peeler | 6 | 60% | 3.0 / 5 | |
| K. Gill | 2 | 10% | 1.0 / 10 | |
| M. Wilks | 2 | 33% | 1.0 / 3 | |
| L. Woods | 0 | - | 0.0 / 1 |
TS Makes
TS Misses
MATCHUP
Scoring Opportunities
MIA
87
+8
-10
95
MIN
85
+15
-14
100
Base
ORB
TOV
Scoring Efficiency
MIA
0.95 47.4%
MIN
1.08 54.0%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %
Reg Season Avg | Game Stats | |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency & Pace | This Game | |
| Efficiency | 94.5 103.8 | MIA 93.8 +15.3 MIN 109.1 |
| Pace | 90.0 94.0 | MIA 102.0 +6.9 MIN 95.1 |
| Avg. Poss. Time | 16.2 15.2 | MIA 14.1 +1.0 MIN 15.1 |
| Four Factors | This Game | |
| EFG % | 43.9% 48.8% | MIA 45.3% MIN 52.9% +7.6% |
| TO % | 14.8% 14.1% | MIA 9.8% +3.2% MIN 13.0% |
| ORB % | 26.8% 28.3% | MIA 13.3% MIN 32.5% +19.2% |
| FTrt | 25.9 26.8 | MIA 18.8 MIN 23.5 +4.7 |
| Misc. Stats | This Game | |
| AST % | 55.8% 65.3% | MIA 75.0% +8.3% MIN 66.7% |
| STL % | 7.9% 7.1% | MIA 9.3% +3.2% MIN 6.1% |
| BLK % | 6.4% 7.9% | MIA 5.2% MIN 8.8% +3.6% |
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.
Reg Season Avg | Game Stats | |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting Efficiency | This Game | |
| TS% | 46.0% 50.6% | MIA 47.4% MIN 54.0% +6.6% |
| Rim FG% | 53.7% 60.2% | MIA 47.1% MIN 53.3% +6.2% |
| Mid FG% | 37.6% 42.2% | MIA 45.1% +2.5% MIN 42.6% |
| 3P % | 31.6% 36.8% | MIA 29.4% MIN 75.0% +45.6% |
| FT % | 76.5% 77.0% | MIA 87.5% MIN 90.0% +2.5% |
| Shot Distribution | This Game | |
| Rim Att. % | 28.9% 28.0% | MIA 20.0% MIN 35.3% +15.3% |
| Mid Att. % | 54.2% 60.2% | MIA 60.0% MIN 55.3% +4.7% |
| 3P Att. % | 16.9% 11.8% | MIA 20.0% +10.6% MIN 9.4% |
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.37 and 2.37.
| Game Totals | MIA | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Possessions | 97 | 99 |
| Possession Minutes | 22.8 | 25.0 |
| Points | 91 | 108 |
| Rebounds | 33 | 52 |
| Assists | 27 | 28 |
| Steals | 9 | 6 |
| Blocks | 4 | 6 |
| Turnovers (Team) | 10 (0) | 14 (0) |
| Fouls | ||
| Off. Rebounds (Team) | 6 (2) | 13 (2) |
| Def. Rebounds (Team) | 27 (2) | 39 (3) |
| Field Goals | 36-85 | 42-85 |
| At-the-Rim FG | 8-17 | 16-30 |
| Midrange FG | 23-51 | 20-47 |
| 2-Point FG | 31-68 | 36-77 |
| 3-Point FG | 5-17 | 6-8 |
| Free Throws | 14-16 | 18-20 |
| Fast Break Pts | ||
| 2nd Chance Pts | ||
| Points in Paint | ||
| Pts off Turnovers | ||
| Bench Points | ||
| Biggest Lead |
BOXSCORE
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Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.
Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.
Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.
Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.
Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.