FinalWin Prob.pScore
2334%87
90
1666%91
97
ORTG#PossPace
MIA logo MIA
96.89385.1
CHH
109.089100.5

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

HornetsHeatQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

HornetsHeatQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventMIACHH
Q4 - 0:00.0CHH90
0%
97
100%
Q4 - 0:06.0MIAJones Layup (27 PTS)90
0.1%
97
99.9%
Q4 - 0:15.0CHHBrown Free Throw 2 of 2 (15 PTS)88
0.1%
97
99.9%
Q4 - 0:15.0CHHBrown Free Throw 1 of 2 (14 PTS)88
0.1%
96
99.9%
Q4 - 0:17.0MIAGrant Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T12)88
0.1%
95
99.9%
Q4 - 0:17.0CHHBrown Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS)88
0.2%
95
99.8%
Q4 - 0:17.0CHHMISS Brown Free Throw 1 of 288
0.2%
94
99.8%
Q4 - 0:17.0HORNETS Rebound88
0.4%
94
99.6%
Q4 - 0:21.0MIAMISS House 11' Jump Shot88
0.3%
94
99.7%
Q4 - 0:22.0MIAHeat Rebound88
0.6%
94
99.4%
Q4 - 0:23.0MIAMISS House 26' 3PT Jump Shot88
0.3%
94
99.7%
Q4 - 0:36.0MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:4 Def:7)88
0.8%
94
99.2%
Q4 - 0:36.0CHHMISS Wesley Free Throw 2 of 288
0.7%
94
99.3%
Q4 - 0:36.0CHHMISS Wesley Free Throw 1 of 288
0.4%
94
99.6%
Q4 - 0:52.0MIAHouse 11' Jump Shot (12 PTS)88
1.0%
94
99.0%
Q4 - 1:10CHHMashburn Free Throw 2 of 2 (22 PTS)86
0.8%
94
99.2%
Q4 - 1:10CHHMISS Mashburn Free Throw 1 of 286
0.9%
93
99.1%
Q4 - 1:17MIAStrickland 20' Jump Shot (8 PTS)86
0.9%
93
99.1%
Q4 - 1:26CHHMagloire Dunk (18 PTS) (Davis 10 AST)84
0.7%
93
99.3%
Q4 - 1:40MIAGrant 19' Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Strickland 9 AST)84
1.5%
91
98.5%
Q4 - 1:53CHHMashburn Layup (21 PTS) (Davis 9 AST)82
1.1%
91
98.9%
Q4 - 2:09CHHBrown REBOUND (Off:5 Def:8)82
1.7%
89
98.3%
Q4 - 2:12MIAMISS Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot82
2.0%
89
98.0%
Q4 - 2:32CHHMashburn 27' 3PT Jump Shot (19 PTS) (Wesley 4 AST)82
3.3%
89
96.7%
Q4 - 3:00MIAMourning 5' Running Hook Shot (14 PTS)82
7.8%
86
92.2%
Q4 - 3:24CHHBrown Layup (12 PTS) (Mashburn 7 AST)80
6.1%
86
93.9%
Q4 - 3:40MIADavis STEAL (5 STL)80
10.5%
84
89.5%
Q4 - 3:51CHHMashburn Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)80
14.5%
84
85.5%
Q4 - 3:51CHHMashburn Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)80
15.1%
83
84.9%
Q4 - 3:58CHHBrown REBOUND (Off:5 Def:7)80
19.4%
82
80.6%
Q4 - 4:00CHHMISS Augmon 17' Jump Shot80
24.0%
82
76.0%
Q4 - 4:24MIAJones 25' 3PT Jump Shot (25 PTS) (Strickland 8 AST)80
19.2%
82
80.8%
Q4 - 4:45CHHMashburn 19' Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Davis 8 AST)77
10.2%
82
89.8%
Q4 - 5:00CHHDavis REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)77
13.9%
80
86.1%
Q4 - 5:04CHHMagloire REBOUND (Off:5 Def:6)77
15.6%
80
84.4%
Q4 - 5:04CHHMISS Magloire Tip Shot77
19.0%
80
81.0%
Q4 - 5:08CHHMISS Davis Layup77
19.0%
80
81.0%
Q4 - 5:16CHHBrown REBOUND (Off:4 Def:7)77
15.5%
80
84.5%
Q4 - 5:19MIAMISS House 17' Jump Shot77
17.0%
80
83.0%
Q4 - 5:33CHHMagloire REBOUND (Off:4 Def:6)77
20.6%
80
79.4%
Q4 - 5:33CHHMagloire Tip Shot (16 PTS)77
20.6%
80
79.4%
Q4 - 5:36CHHMISS Brown 20' Jump Shot77
31.4%
78
68.6%
Q4 - 6:03MIAStrickland 12' Jump Shot (6 PTS)77
26.3%
78
73.7%
Q4 - 6:28CHHAugmon 14' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Davis 7 AST)75
21.6%
78
78.4%
Q4 - 6:51CHHAugmon REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)75
26.3%
76
73.7%
Q4 - 6:53MIAMISS Carter 20' Jump Shot75
28.4%
76
71.6%
Q4 - 7:10CHHAugmon 16' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Mashburn 6 AST)75
33.5%
76
66.5%
Q4 - 7:33MIAStepania Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)75
39.1%
74
60.9%
Q4 - 7:33MIAMISS Stepania Free Throw 1 of 274
36.7%
74
63.3%
Q4 - 7:48CHHMagloire Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)74
40.0%
74
60.0%
Q4 - 7:48CHHMagloire Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)74
41.6%
73
58.4%
Q4 - 7:48CHHMagloire REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6)74
45.9%
72
54.1%
Q4 - 7:49CHHMISS Davis 18' Jump Shot74
51.4%
72
48.6%
Q4 - 8:11MIAJones 24' 3PT Jump Shot (22 PTS) (Carter 4 AST)74
45.3%
72
54.7%
Q4 - 8:17MIAGatling REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)71
33.3%
72
66.7%
Q4 - 8:21CHHMISS Mashburn 17' Jump Shot71
31.6%
72
68.4%
Q4 - 8:34CHHMashburn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)71
27.8%
72
72.2%
Q4 - 8:38MIAMISS Stepania 19' Jump Shot71
29.4%
72
70.6%
Q4 - 9:06CHHDavis 26' 3PT Jump Shot (22 PTS) (Wesley 3 AST)71
33.2%
72
66.8%
Q4 - 9:28HORNETS Rebound71
50.6%
69
49.4%
Q4 - 9:28MIAMISS House Layup71
46.2%
69
53.8%
Q4 - 9:45CHHWesley Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)71
50.6%
69
49.4%
Q4 - 9:45CHHWesley Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)71
51.9%
68
48.1%
Q4 - 10:00MIAStepania 18' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Carter 3 AST)71
56.4%
67
43.6%
Q4 - 10:23MIAStepania REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)69
49.6%
67
50.4%
Q4 - 10:24CHHMISS Wesley Free Throw 2 of 269
48.8%
67
51.2%
Q4 - 10:24CHHWesley Free Throw 1 of 2 (14 PTS)69
45.1%
67
54.9%
Q4 - 10:24CHHWesley REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)69
49.1%
66
50.9%
Q4 - 10:24CHHMISS Augmon Layup69
53.4%
66
46.6%
Q4 - 10:29MIAAugmon STEAL (2 STL)69
49.1%
66
50.9%
Q4 - 10:50CHHDavis 8' Fadeaway Jumper (19 PTS)69
55.3%
66
44.7%
Q4 - 11:14MIAGatling 12' Turnaround Jump Shot (4 PTS)69
59.3%
64
40.7%
Q4 - 11:25CHHLynch Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T17)67
54.3%
64
45.7%
Q4 - 11:26MIAHouse Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)67
48.6%
64
51.4%
Q4 - 11:26MIAHouse Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)66
47.8%
64
52.2%
Q4 - 11:26MIAStepania REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)65
43.5%
64
56.5%
Q4 - 11:30CHHMISS Davis 1' Layup65
41.8%
64
58.2%
Q4 - 11:36CHHLynch REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)65
38.0%
64
62.0%
Q4 - 11:40MIAMISS House 21' Jump Shot65
39.6%
64
60.4%
Q3 - 0:00.0MIA65
43.5%
64
56.5%
Q3 - 0:07.0CHHWesley REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)62
24.6%
64
75.4%
Q3 - 0:07.0CHHMISS Mashburn 18' Jump Shot62
27.4%
64
72.6%
Q3 - 0:31.0MIAGatling Layup (2 PTS) (House 3 AST)62
24.6%
64
75.4%
Q3 - 0:55.0MIAStepania REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)60
21.0%
64
79.0%
Q3 - 0:56.0CHHMISS Campbell Layup60
20.0%
64
80.0%
Q3 - 1:13CHHCampbell REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)60
18.2%
64
81.8%
Q3 - 1:16MIAMISS House 25' 3PT Jump Shot60
19.2%
64
80.8%
Q3 - 1:31MIACarter REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)60
21.4%
64
78.6%
Q3 - 1:34CHHMISS Wesley 18' Jump Shot60
20.4%
64
79.6%
Q3 - 1:48CHHMashburn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)60
18.2%
64
81.8%
Q3 - 1:52MIAMISS Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot60
19.1%
64
80.9%
Q3 - 1:55MIACarter REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)60
21.4%
64
78.6%
Q3 - 1:57MIAMISS Gatling 16' Jump Shot60
19.1%
64
80.9%
Q3 - 2:13CHHAugmon Traveling Turnover (P1.T15)60
21.6%
64
78.4%
Q3 - 2:17MIALynch STEAL (1 STL)60
18.3%
64
81.7%
Q3 - 2:21MIAStepania REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)60
21.6%
64
78.4%
Q3 - 2:23CHHMISS Mashburn 18' Jump Shot60
20.5%
64
79.5%
Q3 - 2:51MIAHouse Driving Layup (5 PTS)60
18.3%
64
81.7%
Q3 - 2:59CHHWesley 20' Fadeaway Jumper (13 PTS) (Mashburn 5 AST)58
15.9%
64
84.1%
Q3 - 3:01HORNETS Rebound58
22.0%
62
78.0%
Q3 - 3:01CHHMISS Mashburn Layup58
21.0%
62
79.0%
Q3 - 3:18MIAHouse 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Carter 2 AST)58
18.9%
62
81.1%
Q3 - 3:28MIAStepania REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)55
14.1%
62
85.9%
Q3 - 3:31CHHMISS Wesley 25' 3PT Jump Shot55
13.4%
62
86.6%
Q3 - 3:36CHHMashburn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)55
11.9%
62
88.1%
Q3 - 3:39MIAMISS Stepania 17' Jump Shot55
12.6%
62
87.4%
Q3 - 3:54MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:4 Def:6)55
14.1%
62
85.9%
Q3 - 3:56CHHMISS Davis 25' 3PT Jump Shot55
13.4%
62
86.6%
Q3 - 4:01CHHDavis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)55
12.2%
62
87.8%
Q3 - 4:03MIAMISS Grant 18' Jump Shot55
12.8%
62
87.2%
Q3 - 4:22CHHWesley 22' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Mashburn 4 AST)55
14.5%
62
85.5%
Q3 - 4:38MIAJones Free Throw 2 of 2 (19 PTS)55
16.4%
60
83.6%
Q3 - 4:38MIAJones Free Throw 1 of 2 (18 PTS)54
16.1%
60
83.9%
Q3 - 4:40CHHBrown Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T14)53
14.5%
60
85.5%
Q3 - 5:04MIAMourning Dunk (12 PTS) (Gill 2 AST)53
12.8%
60
87.2%
Q3 - 5:11MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:4 Def:5)51
11.1%
60
88.9%
Q3 - 5:16CHHMISS Mashburn 18' Jump Shot51
10.6%
60
89.4%
Q3 - 5:29CHHMashburn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)51
9.4%
60
90.6%
Q3 - 5:32MIAMISS Strickland 20' Jump Shot51
9.9%
60
90.1%
Q3 - 5:49MIAGill REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)51
11.1%
60
88.9%
Q3 - 5:51MIAMISS Strickland 16' Jump Shot51
9.9%
60
90.1%
Q3 - 6:10MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:4 Def:4)51
11.5%
60
88.5%
Q3 - 6:12CHHMISS Brown 15' Jump Shot51
11.0%
60
89.0%
Q3 - 6:30MIAGrant 20' Jump Shot (10 PTS)51
9.9%
60
90.1%
Q3 - 6:48CHHMashburn 25' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Davis 6 AST)49
8.6%
60
91.4%
Q3 - 7:04MIAMourning Alley Oop Layup (10 PTS) (Strickland 7 AST)49
11.6%
57
88.4%
Q3 - 7:20CHHMashburn 8' Fadeaway Jumper (9 PTS) (Davis 5 AST)47
10.3%
57
89.7%
Q3 - 7:37CHHDavis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)47
11.6%
55
88.4%
Q3 - 7:39MIAMISS Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot47
12.2%
55
87.8%
Q3 - 7:53CHHMagloire 6' Hook Shot (12 PTS)47
13.6%
55
86.4%
Q3 - 8:14MIADavis STEAL (4 STL)47
15.5%
53
84.5%
Q3 - 8:19MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)47
17.9%
53
82.1%
Q3 - 8:22CHHMISS Wesley 24' 3PT Jump Shot47
17.1%
53
82.9%
Q3 - 8:29CHHDavis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)47
15.5%
53
84.5%
Q3 - 8:31MIAMISS Gill 20' Jump Shot47
16.2%
53
83.8%
Q3 - 8:52CHHBrown Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)47
17.9%
53
82.1%
Q3 - 8:52CHHBrown Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)47
18.2%
52
81.8%
Q3 - 9:05CHHMagloire REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)47
20.0%
51
80.0%
Q3 - 9:06MIAMISS Strickland Layup47
20.7%
51
79.3%
Q3 - 9:14CHHDavis Bad Pass Turnover (P6.T13)47
22.5%
51
77.5%
Q3 - 9:36MIAJones 26' 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Strickland 6 AST)47
20.0%
51
80.0%
Q3 - 9:49CHHWesley Layup (9 PTS) (Davis 4 AST)44
15.8%
51
84.2%
Q3 - 10:04MIAJones 26' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Gill 1 AST)44
17.8%
49
82.2%
Q3 - 10:19MIAJones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)41
14.2%
49
85.8%
Q3 - 10:21CHHMISS Mashburn 10' Jump Shot41
13.6%
49
86.4%
Q3 - 10:32CHHMagloire REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)41
12.4%
49
87.6%
Q3 - 10:35MIAMISS Mourning 14' Hook Shot41
12.9%
49
87.1%
Q3 - 10:44MIAGill REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)41
14.2%
49
85.8%
Q3 - 10:46CHHBrown REBOUND (Off:4 Def:6)41
12.4%
49
87.6%
Q3 - 10:46CHHMISS Brown 4' Hook Shot41
13.6%
49
86.4%
Q3 - 10:50CHHMISS Brown 6' Jump Shot41
13.6%
49
86.4%
Q3 - 11:11MIAGill Layup (8 PTS) (Strickland 5 AST)41
12.6%
49
87.4%
Q3 - 11:17CHHDavis Bad Pass Turnover (P5.T12)39
11.2%
49
88.8%
Q3 - 11:24CHHMagloire REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)39
9.9%
49
90.1%
Q3 - 11:27MIAMISS Strickland 16' Jump Shot39
10.3%
49
89.7%
Q3 - 11:44CHHMagloire Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T11)39
11.2%
49
88.8%
Q2 - 0:00.0MIA39
9.9%
49
90.1%
Q2 - 0:06.0CHHMashburn 9' Turnaround Jump Shot (7 PTS)39
11.6%
49
88.4%
Q2 - 0:25.0CHHMagloire REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)39
13.4%
47
86.6%
Q2 - 0:27.0CHHMISS Mashburn 12' Jump Shot39
14.2%
47
85.8%
Q2 - 0:44.0CHHDavis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)39
13.4%
47
86.6%
Q2 - 0:47.0MIAMISS Jones 15' Jump Shot39
13.7%
47
86.3%
Q2 - 1:06CHHMagloire Layup (10 PTS) (Davis 3 AST)39
14.8%
47
85.2%
Q2 - 1:27MIAMourning Dunk (8 PTS) (Stepania 1 AST)39
17.3%
45
82.7%
Q2 - 1:38CHHMagloire Layup (8 PTS) (Mashburn 3 AST)37
14.8%
45
85.2%
Q2 - 1:57CHHMagloire REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)37
17.3%
43
82.7%
Q2 - 1:59MIAMISS Mourning Free Throw 2 of 237
17.4%
43
82.6%
Q2 - 1:59MIAMISS Mourning Free Throw 1 of 237
18.6%
43
81.4%
Q2 - 2:14CHHWesley Out Of Bounds Turnover (P1.T10)37
19.0%
43
81.0%
Q2 - 2:17MIADavis STEAL (3 STL)37
17.2%
43
82.8%
Q2 - 2:37MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)37
18.9%
43
81.1%
Q2 - 2:38CHHBrown REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6)37
17.3%
43
82.7%
Q2 - 2:38CHHMISS Brown Layup37
18.4%
43
81.6%
Q2 - 2:42CHHMISS Wesley 6' Jump Shot37
18.4%
43
81.6%
Q2 - 2:58MIAJones 15' Jump Shot (11 PTS)37
17.3%
43
82.7%
Q2 - 3:13CHHBrown Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)35
15.9%
43
84.1%
Q2 - 3:13CHHBrown Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)35
16.1%
42
83.9%
Q2 - 3:13CHHBrown REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)35
17.4%
41
82.6%
Q2 - 3:13MIAMISS Carter 7' Jump Shot35
18.0%
41
82.0%
Q2 - 3:27CHHMagloire Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T9)35
19.4%
41
80.6%
Q2 - 3:31CHHMagloire REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)35
17.4%
41
82.6%
Q2 - 3:32MIAMISS Stepania Layup35
18.0%
41
82.0%
Q2 - 3:48CHHMagloire Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)35
19.4%
41
80.6%
Q2 - 3:48CHHMagloire Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)35
19.8%
40
80.2%
Q2 - 4:03MIAGrant Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)35
21.3%
39
78.7%
Q2 - 4:03MIAGrant Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)34
21.1%
39
78.9%
Q2 - 4:03MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:4 Def:3)33
19.4%
39
80.6%
Q2 - 4:05MIAMISS Jones 26' 3PT Jump Shot33
18.2%
39
81.8%
Q2 - 4:20CHHDavis 26' 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Lynch 2 AST)33
19.4%
39
80.6%
Q2 - 4:44MIAJones Reverse Layup (9 PTS) (Grant 1 AST)33
23.3%
36
76.7%
Q2 - 4:53MIACarter REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)31
21.3%
36
78.7%
Q2 - 4:57CHHMISS Augmon 9' Jump Shot31
20.7%
36
79.3%
Q2 - 5:15MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)31
19.4%
36
80.6%
Q2 - 5:15MIAGrant Tip Shot (6 PTS)31
19.4%
36
80.6%
Q2 - 5:18MIAMISS Ellis 19' Jump Shot29
16.7%
36
83.3%
Q2 - 5:33CHHMagloire 4' Hook Shot (4 PTS)29
17.9%
36
82.1%
Q2 - 5:44CHHBrown REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)29
19.4%
34
80.6%
Q2 - 5:48MIALynch BLOCK (1 BLK)29
20.0%
34
80.0%
Q2 - 6:10CHHDavis 20' Jump Shot (14 PTS)29
21.7%
34
78.3%
Q2 - 6:26HORNETS Rebound29
25.7%
32
74.3%
Q2 - 6:28MIAMISS Ellis 26' 3PT Jump Shot29
24.0%
32
76.0%
Q2 - 6:49CHHBrown Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)29
25.7%
32
74.3%
Q2 - 6:49CHHBrown Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)29
25.9%
31
74.1%
Q2 - 7:11CHHLynch REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)29
27.7%
30
72.3%
Q2 - 7:14MIAMISS Gill 20' Jump Shot29
28.4%
30
71.6%
Q2 - 7:20CHHDavis Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T8)29
30.0%
30
70.0%
Q2 - 7:32MIAMourning 18' Jump Shot (6 PTS)29
27.7%
30
72.3%
Q2 - 7:52CHHBrown 15' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Lynch 1 AST)27
25.7%
30
74.3%
Q2 - 8:04CHHMagloire REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)27
27.5%
28
72.5%
Q2 - 8:07MIAMISS Carter 8' Jump Shot27
28.2%
28
71.8%
Q2 - 8:16MIAEllis REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)27
29.9%
28
70.1%
Q2 - 8:20CHHMISS Davis Free Throw 2 of 227
29.6%
28
70.4%
Q2 - 8:20CHHDavis Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)27
28.5%
28
71.5%
Q2 - 8:28CHHLynch REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)27
29.6%
27
70.4%
Q2 - 8:30MIAMISS Mourning 9' Jump Shot27
30.4%
27
69.6%
Q2 - 8:50MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)27
32.1%
27
67.9%
Q2 - 8:52CHHMISS Augmon 17' Jump Shot27
31.4%
27
68.6%
Q2 - 9:00HORNETS Rebound27
32.1%
27
67.9%
Q2 - 9:01MIAMISS House 22' Jump Shot27
30.2%
27
69.8%
Q2 - 9:15MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)27
31.9%
27
68.1%
Q2 - 9:17CHHMISS Campbell 6' Jump Shot27
31.1%
27
68.9%
Q2 - 9:30CHHDavis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)27
29.5%
27
70.5%
Q2 - 9:32MIAMISS Grant 16' Jump Shot27
30.2%
27
69.8%
Q2 - 9:41CHHCampbell Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T7)27
31.9%
27
68.1%
Q2 - 9:55MIAJones 21' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (House 2 AST)27
29.5%
27
70.5%
Q2 - 10:13MIAEllis REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)25
27.7%
27
72.3%
Q2 - 10:15CHHMISS Wesley 14' Jump Shot25
27.0%
27
73.0%
Q2 - 10:21MIAAugmon STEAL (1 STL)25
25.5%
27
74.5%
Q2 - 10:25MIAJones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)25
27.7%
27
72.3%
Q2 - 10:31CHHMISS Wesley 18' Jump Shot25
27.0%
27
73.0%
Q2 - 10:48MIAGill Layup (6 PTS) (House 1 AST)25
25.5%
27
74.5%
Q2 - 11:01MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)23
23.6%
27
76.4%
Q2 - 11:04CHHMISS Mashburn Free Throw 2 of 223
23.4%
27
76.6%
Q2 - 11:04CHHMashburn Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)23
22.1%
27
77.9%
Q2 - 11:20CHHAugmon REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)23
23.6%
26
76.4%
Q2 - 11:23MIAMISS Grant 16' Jump Shot23
24.2%
26
75.8%
Q2 - 11:42CHHMashburn Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T6)23
25.4%
26
74.6%
Q1 - 0:00.0CHH23
23.6%
26
76.4%
Q1 - 0:01.0MIADavis STEAL (2 STL)23
23.8%
26
76.2%
Q1 - 0:14.0CHHWesley Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)23
25.2%
26
74.8%
Q1 - 0:14.0CHHMISS Wesley Free Throw 1 of 223
25.5%
25
74.5%
Q1 - 0:18.0CHHCampbell REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)23
25.6%
25
74.4%
Q1 - 0:20.0MIAMISS Gill 27' 3PT Jump Shot23
26.0%
25
74.0%
Q1 - 0:37.0MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)23
27.0%
25
73.0%
Q1 - 0:40.0MIAMISS Jones 3PT Jump Shot23
26.0%
25
74.0%
Q1 - 0:50.0CHHBrown Foul Turnover (P1.T5)23
27.0%
25
73.0%
Q1 - 0:55.0CHHCampbell REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)23
25.6%
25
74.4%
Q1 - 0:58.0MIAMISS Mourning 17' Jump Shot23
26.0%
25
74.0%
Q1 - 1:18CHHMashburn Layup (4 PTS) (Wesley 2 AST)23
27.0%
25
73.0%
Q1 - 1:23CHHWesley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)23
29.4%
23
70.6%
Q1 - 1:24MIAMISS Jones Layup23
29.8%
23
70.2%
Q1 - 1:38CHHDavis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)23
30.9%
23
69.1%
Q1 - 1:38CHHDavis Layup (11 PTS)23
30.9%
23
69.1%
Q1 - 1:39CHHMISS Davis Layup23
34.6%
21
65.4%
Q1 - 1:59MIAStepania REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)23
33.4%
21
66.6%
Q1 - 1:59MIAStepania Tip Shot (2 PTS)23
33.4%
21
66.6%
Q1 - 2:01MIAMISS Strickland 9' Jump Shot21
29.8%
21
70.2%
Q1 - 2:11MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)21
31.1%
21
68.9%
Q1 - 2:15CHHMISS Campbell 6' Hook Shot21
30.5%
21
69.5%
Q1 - 2:36MIAMISS Mourning Free Throw 1 of 121
29.5%
21
70.5%
Q1 - 2:36MIAMourning Layup (4 PTS) (Carter 1 AST)21
29.3%
21
70.7%
Q1 - 2:45MIAJones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)19
27.2%
21
72.8%
Q1 - 2:46CHHMISS Davis Free Throw 2 of 219
27.0%
21
73.0%
Q1 - 2:46CHHDavis Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)19
26.1%
21
73.9%
Q1 - 2:57MIABrown STEAL (2 STL)19
27.4%
20
72.6%
Q1 - 3:07MIAJones Free Throw Technical (5 PTS)19
29.1%
20
70.9%
Q1 - 3:21CHHDavis 25' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Wesley 1 AST)18
27.3%
20
72.7%
Q1 - 3:28CHHBrown REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)18
30.8%
17
69.2%
Q1 - 3:29CHHMISS Wesley Free Throw 2 of 218
32.7%
17
67.3%
Q1 - 3:29CHHWesley Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)18
31.4%
17
68.6%
Q1 - 3:34CHHCampbell REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)18
32.8%
16
67.2%
Q1 - 3:37CHHMISS Brown 7' Jump Shot18
34.3%
16
65.7%
Q1 - 3:48CHHBrown REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)18
32.8%
16
67.2%
Q1 - 3:50MIAMISS House 3PT Jump Shot18
33.5%
16
66.5%
Q1 - 3:58MIAStepania REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)18
35.0%
16
65.0%
Q1 - 4:01CHHMISS Wesley 18' Jump Shot18
33.9%
16
66.1%
Q1 - 4:14CHHBrown REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)18
32.3%
16
67.7%
Q1 - 4:16MIAMISS Mourning 15' Jump Shot18
33.0%
16
67.0%
Q1 - 4:27CHHMagloire Foul Turnover (P1.T4)18
34.7%
16
65.3%
Q1 - 4:50MIAMourning Layup (2 PTS) (Strickland 4 AST)18
32.3%
16
67.7%
Q1 - 4:54CHHDavis Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T3)16
30.8%
16
69.2%
Q1 - 5:02MIAGrant Layup (4 PTS) (Strickland 3 AST)16
28.4%
16
71.6%
Q1 - 5:26CHHDavis 26' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Mashburn 2 AST)14
26.9%
16
73.1%
Q1 - 5:43MIAGrant Driving Layup (2 PTS)14
30.1%
13
69.9%
Q1 - 6:06CHHMagloire 6' Turnaround Hook Shot (2 PTS) (Mashburn 1 AST)12
28.3%
13
71.7%
Q1 - 6:28CHHBrown REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)12
29.9%
11
70.1%
Q1 - 6:28CHHMISS Magloire Free Throw 2 of 212
31.5%
11
68.5%
Q1 - 6:28CHHMISS Magloire Free Throw 1 of 212
30.4%
11
69.6%
Q1 - 6:41MIAGill 22' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Strickland 2 AST)12
29.9%
11
70.1%
Q1 - 7:07CHHMashburn 7' Jump Shot (2 PTS)10
28.2%
11
71.8%
Q1 - 7:12MIAMashburn STEAL (1 STL)10
29.6%
9
70.4%
Q1 - 7:14MIAStrickland REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)10
31.4%
9
68.6%
Q1 - 7:16CHHMagloire REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)10
29.6%
9
70.4%
Q1 - 7:16CHHMISS Magloire Tip Shot10
30.9%
9
69.1%
Q1 - 7:20CHHMISS Davis 9' Jump Shot10
30.9%
9
69.1%
Q1 - 7:31CHHBrown REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)10
29.6%
9
70.4%
Q1 - 7:33MIAMISS Mourning 12' Jump Shot10
30.2%
9
69.8%
Q1 - 7:54CHHBrown 6' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Davis 2 AST)10
31.4%
9
68.6%
Q1 - 8:12MIADavis STEAL (1 STL)10
32.8%
7
67.2%
Q1 - 8:28CHHDavis Double Dribble Turnover (P2.T2)10
34.7%
7
65.3%
Q1 - 8:33MIAStrickland Driving Layup (4 PTS)10
32.8%
7
67.2%
Q1 - 8:36CHHDavis Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)8
31.3%
7
68.7%
Q1 - 8:48MIAJones Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)8
29.5%
7
70.5%
Q1 - 8:48MIAJones Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)7
29.3%
7
70.7%
Q1 - 9:02CHHWesley Layup (5 PTS)6
28.1%
7
71.9%
Q1 - 9:09CHHMashburn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)6
29.2%
5
70.8%
Q1 - 9:11MIAMISS Strickland 18' Jump Shot6
29.8%
5
70.2%
Q1 - 9:30CHHWesley 26' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Davis 1 AST)6
31.3%
5
68.7%
Q1 - 9:45MIAJones 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS)6
34.2%
2
65.8%
Q1 - 9:48MIAJones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)4
32.9%
2
67.1%
Q1 - 9:52CHHMISS Magloire Layup4
32.3%
2
67.7%
Q1 - 10:11MIAStrickland Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)4
30.8%
2
69.2%
Q1 - 10:11MIAStrickland Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)3
30.5%
2
69.5%
Q1 - 10:26CHHDavis Driving Layup (2 PTS)2
29.5%
2
70.5%
Q1 - 10:32MIABrown STEAL (1 STL)2
30.8%
0
69.2%
Q1 - 10:40MIAGill REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)2
32.7%
0
67.3%
Q1 - 10:42CHHMISS Magloire 6' Jump Shot2
32.1%
0
67.9%
Q1 - 11:02MIAGill 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Strickland 1 AST)2
30.9%
0
69.1%
Q1 - 11:07MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)0
29.2%
0
70.8%
Q1 - 11:09MIAMISS Mourning 17' Jump Shot0
28.2%
0
71.8%
Q1 - 11:20MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)0
29.2%
0
70.8%
Q1 - 11:23CHHMISS Mashburn 14' Jump Shot0
28.8%
0
71.2%
Q1 - 11:34CHHBrown REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)0
27.8%
0
72.2%
Q1 - 11:36MIAMISS Grant 6' Jump Shot0
28.2%
0
71.8%
Q1 - 12:00CHHJump Ball Magloire vs. Mourning: Tip to Strickland0
29.2%
0
70.8%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIA
1.01 50.6%
CHH
1.07 53.3%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
MIA
17
22
77%
CHH
11
22
50%
Midrange
MIA
13
42
31%
CHH
15
39
38%
3PT | Effective 3PT
MIA
6
9.0
16
38%
56%
CHH
7
10.5
10
70%
105%
Free Throws
MIA
12
16
75%
CHH
24
36
67%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
MIA logo Heat
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
E. Jones2771%13.5 / 19
A. Mourning1447%7.0 / 15
B. Grant1260%6.0 / 10
E. House1246%6.0 / 13
R. Strickland840%4.0 / 10
K. Gill857%4.0 / 7
V. Stepania542%2.5 / 6
C. Gatling467%2.0 / 3
A. Carter0-0.0 / 3
L. Ellis0-0.0 / 2
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
Hornets
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
B. Davis2269%11.0 / 16
J. Mashburn2258%11.0 / 19
J. Magloire1864%9.0 / 14
D. Wesley1647%8.0 / 17
P. Brown1554%7.5 / 14
S. Augmon433%2.0 / 6
E. Campbell0-0.0 / 3
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

MIA
81
+8
-12
89
CHH
73
+15
-16
88
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA
1.01 50.6%
CHH
1.07 53.3%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
96.1
100.1
MIA 96.8 +12.2
CHH 109.0
Pace
89.7
94.4
MIA 85.1
CHH 100.5 +15.4
Avg. Poss. Time
16.7
15.2
MIA 16.9
CHH 14.3 +2.6
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
46.3%
46.6%
MIA 48.8%
CHH 51.4% +2.6%
TO %
15.5%
14.4%
MIA 12.1% +3.5%
CHH 15.6%
ORB %
26.7%
30.6%
MIA 17.1%
CHH 34.1% +17.0%
FTrt
26.8
32.0
MIA 20.0
CHH 50.7 +30.7
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
59.4%
60.8%
MIA 58.3%
CHH 69.7% +11.4%
STL %
7.4%
8.7%
MIA 9.7%
CHH 12.4% +2.7%
BLK %
8.7%
8.4%
MIA 9.8% +8.2%
CHH 1.6%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.08 and 2.08.

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
47.7%
49.2%
MIA 50.6%
CHH 53.3% +2.7%
Rim FG%
60.6%
55.4%
MIA 77.3% +27.3%
CHH 50.0%
Mid FG%
38.0%
39.2%
MIA 31.0%
CHH 38.5% +7.5%
3P %
34.7%
34.8%
MIA 37.5%
CHH 70.0% +32.5%
FT %
72.4%
74.5%
MIA 75.0% +8.3%
CHH 66.7%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
28.1%
33.5%
MIA 27.5%
CHH 31.0% +3.5%
Mid Att. %
57.8%
51.4%
MIA 52.5% +2.4%
CHH 54.9%
3P Att. %
14.1%
15.1%
MIA 20.0% +5.9%
CHH 14.1%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.
Game TotalsMIACHH
Possessions9389
Possession Minutes26.221.3
Points9097
Rebounds3649
Assists2123
Steals911
Blocks61
Turnovers (Team)12 (0)16 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)7 (1)15 (0)
Def. Rebounds (Team)29 (0)34 (0)
Field Goals36-8033-71
At-the-Rim FG17-2211-22
Midrange FG13-4215-39
2-Point FG30-6426-61
3-Point FG6-167-10
Free Throws12-1624-36
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

Access to boxscore predictions requires a premium subscription.
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
G · 6'6" 200 · 30
41.1
27
71%
4
0
2
0
1
4
0
4
5-5
100%
5-8
63%
4-9
44%
F · 6'9" 254 · 30
34.0
12
60%
11
1
1
1
1
4
4
7
2-2
100%
5-9
56%
0-0
-
C · 6'10" 261 · 32
32.8
14
47%
4
0
0
3
1
1
0
4
0-3
0%
7-13
54%
0-0
-
G · 6'3" 185 · 36
26.1
8
40%
1
9
1
0
2
1
0
1
2-2
100%
3-9
33%
0-0
-
F · 6'5" 216 · 34
20.9
8
57%
3
2
3
0
3
3
1
2
0-0
-
4-6
67%
0-1
0%
G · 6'1" 190 · 24
28.0
12
46%
0
3
0
1
1
3
0
0
2-2
100%
2-7
29%
2-5
40%
C · 7'1" 255 · 26
19.0
5
42%
7
1
0
1
2
1
1
6
1-2
50%
2-5
40%
0-0
-
G · 6'1" 190 · 27
17.4
0
0%
3
4
1
0
0
4
1
2
0-0
-
0-3
0%
0-0
-
F · 6'8" 240 · 32
13.5
0
0%
2
1
1
0
0
3
0
2
0-0
-
0-1
0%
0-1
0%
F · 6'10" · 35
7.2
4
67%
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0-0
-
2-3
67%
0-0
-
F-C · 6'10" 250 · 27
F · 6'10" 255 · 24
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
90
51%
36
21
9
6
12
0
7
29
12-16
75%
30-64
47%
6-16
38%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.