FinalWin Prob.pScore
1820%83
79
480%93
89
ORTG#PossPace
MIA logo MIA
89.88878.7
SAS logo SAS
100.089100.9

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

SpursHeatQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

SpursHeatQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventMIASAS
Q4 - 0:00.0SAS79
0%
89
100%
Q4 - 0:23.0MIAJackson Free Throw 2 of 2 (17 PTS)79
0.1%
89
99.9%
Q4 - 0:23.0MIAJackson Free Throw 1 of 2 (16 PTS)78
0.1%
89
99.9%
Q4 - 0:34.0SASParks REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)77
0.1%
89
99.9%
Q4 - 0:34.0SASParks 1' Tip Shot (2 PTS)77
0.1%
89
99.9%
Q4 - 0:35.0SASMISS Bowen 4' Running Jump Shot77
0.1%
87
99.9%
Q4 - 0:58.0MIAHouse Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS)77
0.1%
87
99.9%
Q4 - 0:58.0MIAHouse Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)76
0.1%
87
99.9%
Q4 - 1:16SASParks Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T13)75
0.1%
87
99.9%
Q4 - 1:26MIAHouse 17' Jump Shot (11 PTS)75
0.1%
87
99.9%
Q4 - 1:39SASSPURS Turnover: Shot Clock (T#12)73
0.1%
87
99.9%
Q4 - 2:03MIAHouse Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T18)73
0.1%
87
99.9%
Q4 - 2:21SASDuncan 16' Jump Shot (23 PTS) (Parker 8 AST)73
0.1%
87
99.9%
Q4 - 2:39MIAJackson Free Throw 2 of 2 (15 PTS)73
0.1%
85
99.9%
Q4 - 2:39MIAJackson Free Throw 1 of 2 (14 PTS)72
0.1%
85
99.9%
Q4 - 2:41MIAHeat Rebound71
0.1%
85
99.9%
Q4 - 2:42MIAMISS Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot71
0.1%
85
99.9%
Q4 - 2:56SASParker 1' Layup (14 PTS)71
0.1%
85
99.9%
Q4 - 3:00MIAParker STEAL (3 STL)71
0.2%
83
99.8%
Q4 - 3:17MIAJackson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)71
0.3%
83
99.7%
Q4 - 3:18MIAMISS Mourning Free Throw 2 of 271
0.2%
83
99.8%
Q4 - 3:18MIAMourning Free Throw 1 of 2 (16 PTS)71
0.2%
83
99.8%
Q4 - 3:18MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:4 Def:7)70
0.2%
83
99.8%
Q4 - 3:20MIAMISS Mourning 8' Jump Hook Shot70
0.1%
83
99.9%
Q4 - 3:40SASBowen 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Parker 7 AST)70
0.4%
83
99.6%
Q4 - 3:52SASRobinson REBOUND (Off:5 Def:5)70
0.8%
80
99.2%
Q4 - 3:54SASMISS Bowen 9' Jump Shot70
1.0%
80
99.0%
Q4 - 4:10MIAMourning 1' Dunk (15 PTS) (Gatling 1 AST)70
0.8%
80
99.2%
Q4 - 4:26MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:3 Def:7)68
0.5%
80
99.5%
Q4 - 4:27SASMISS Duncan Free Throw 2 of 268
0.5%
80
99.5%
Q4 - 4:27SASDuncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (21 PTS)68
0.4%
80
99.6%
Q4 - 4:53MIAGrant 12' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Jones 2 AST)68
0.5%
79
99.5%
Q4 - 5:17SASParker 1' Layup (12 PTS)66
0.6%
79
99.4%
Q4 - 5:35SASBowen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)66
0.8%
77
99.2%
Q4 - 5:38MIAMISS Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot66
0.8%
77
99.2%
Q4 - 5:43MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6)66
1.1%
77
98.9%
Q4 - 5:45SASRobinson REBOUND (Off:4 Def:5)66
0.8%
77
99.2%
Q4 - 5:45SASMISS Robinson 2' Tip Shot66
1.0%
77
99.0%
Q4 - 5:47SASMISS Parker 1' Layup66
1.0%
77
99.0%
Q4 - 6:05MIAJackson 7' Jump Shot (13 PTS)66
1.0%
77
99.0%
Q4 - 6:20MIAJones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)64
0.8%
77
99.2%
Q4 - 6:23SASMISS Bowen 3PT Jump Shot64
0.7%
77
99.3%
Q4 - 6:41SASRobinson REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)64
0.5%
77
99.5%
Q4 - 6:44MIAMISS Mourning 7' Jump Hook Shot64
0.6%
77
99.4%
Q4 - 6:58SASRose REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)64
0.8%
77
99.2%
Q4 - 6:58SASRose 2' Reverse Layup (6 PTS)64
0.8%
77
99.2%
Q4 - 7:01SASMISS Rose 11' Jump Shot64
1.7%
75
98.3%
Q4 - 7:17SASBowen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)64
1.3%
75
98.7%
Q4 - 7:19MIAMISS Stepania 16' Jump Shot64
1.5%
75
98.5%
Q4 - 7:39SASParker Traveling Turnover (P3.T11)64
1.8%
75
98.2%
Q4 - 7:56SASSPURS Rebound64
1.3%
75
98.7%
Q4 - 7:56MIAMISS Strickland 16' Jump Shot64
1.4%
75
98.6%
Q4 - 8:22SASBowen Lost Ball Turnover (P4.T10)64
2.2%
75
97.8%
Q4 - 8:38SASRose REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)64
1.7%
75
98.3%
Q4 - 8:40MIAMISS Gatling 15' Jump Shot64
1.8%
75
98.2%
Q4 - 8:48MIAStepania REBOUND (Off:4 Def:3)64
2.2%
75
97.8%
Q4 - 8:48MIAMISS Strickland 16' Jump Shot64
1.8%
75
98.2%
Q4 - 9:03SASSmith 5' Jump Shot (12 PTS)64
2.5%
75
97.5%
Q4 - 9:22MIAJones 1' Dunk (8 PTS) (House 3 AST)64
3.1%
73
96.9%
Q4 - 9:26SASSmith Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T9)62
2.5%
73
97.5%
Q4 - 9:30MIAJones Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)62
1.9%
73
98.1%
Q4 - 9:30MIAJones Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)61
1.9%
73
98.1%
Q4 - 9:34MIAJackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)60
1.5%
73
98.5%
Q4 - 9:36SASMISS Duncan 5' Jump Shot60
1.4%
73
98.6%
Q4 - 9:52SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:11)60
1.2%
73
98.8%
Q4 - 9:54MIAMISS Jones 13' Jump Shot60
1.3%
73
98.7%
Q4 - 10:15SASSmith 20' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Daniels 2 AST)60
1.8%
73
98.2%
Q4 - 10:19SASRose REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)60
2.2%
71
97.8%
Q4 - 10:21SASMISS Rose 13' Jump Shot60
2.6%
71
97.4%
Q4 - 10:39MIAGrant 17' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Strickland 5 AST)60
2.2%
71
97.8%
Q4 - 10:57MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)58
1.8%
71
98.2%
Q4 - 11:01SASMISS Rose 2' Dunk58
1.9%
71
98.1%
Q4 - 11:09MIAStrickland Foul Turnover (P2.T16)58
1.7%
71
98.3%
Q4 - 11:15MIAJackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)58
2.1%
71
97.9%
Q4 - 11:16SASMISS Daniels 2' Layup58
1.9%
71
98.1%
Q4 - 11:36SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:10)58
1.6%
71
98.4%
Q4 - 11:39MIAMISS Grant 1' Layup58
1.8%
71
98.2%
Q3 - 0:00.0SAS58
2.0%
71
98.0%
Q3 - 0:00.0SASSPURS Rebound58
1.6%
71
98.4%
Q3 - 0:00.0SASMISS Daniels 24' 3PT Jump Shot58
1.9%
71
98.1%
Q3 - 0:02.0SASSmith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)58
1.9%
71
98.1%
Q3 - 0:06.0MIAMISS House 25' 3PT Jump Shot58
2.0%
71
98.0%
Q3 - 0:27.0SASDaniels 11' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Smith 1 AST)58
2.3%
71
97.7%
Q3 - 0:38.0MIAMourning Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS)58
2.8%
69
97.2%
Q3 - 0:38.0MIAMourning Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)57
2.6%
69
97.4%
Q3 - 0:38.0MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)56
2.3%
69
97.7%
Q3 - 0:39.0MIAMISS Carter 1' Layup56
2.0%
69
98.0%
Q3 - 0:52.0SASDuncan 2' Layup (20 PTS) (Daniels 1 AST)56
2.3%
69
97.7%
Q3 - 1:06MIAHouse Out Of Bounds Turnover (P1.T15)56
3.0%
67
97.0%
Q3 - 1:24SASDaniels Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)56
3.7%
67
96.3%
Q3 - 1:24SASDaniels Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)56
3.8%
66
96.2%
Q3 - 1:24SASDuncan Free Throw Technical (18 PTS)56
4.4%
65
95.6%
Q3 - 1:35MIAJackson 10' Jump Shot (11 PTS)56
5.3%
64
94.7%
Q3 - 1:53SASParker 1' Dunk (10 PTS)54
4.4%
64
95.6%
Q3 - 1:58MIAParker STEAL (2 STL)54
5.3%
62
94.7%
Q3 - 2:06SASParker Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)54
6.7%
62
93.3%
Q3 - 2:06SASMISS Parker Free Throw 1 of 254
6.9%
61
93.1%
Q3 - 2:07SASParker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)54
6.6%
61
93.4%
Q3 - 2:09MIAMISS Jackson 16' Jump Shot54
6.9%
61
93.1%
Q3 - 2:32SASParker 22' Jump Shot (7 PTS)54
7.9%
61
92.1%
Q3 - 3:02MIAJackson 1' Driving Layup (9 PTS)54
9.6%
59
90.4%
Q3 - 3:21SASDuncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (17 PTS)52
8.2%
59
91.8%
Q3 - 3:21SASDuncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (16 PTS)52
8.4%
58
91.6%
Q3 - 3:28MIAParker STEAL (1 STL)52
9.6%
57
90.4%
Q3 - 3:29MIAJones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)52
11.3%
57
88.7%
Q3 - 3:31MIAMISS Jackson 26' 3PT Jump Shot52
10.1%
57
89.9%
Q3 - 3:46SASMISS Duncan Free Throw 1 of 152
11.1%
57
88.9%
Q3 - 3:46SASDuncan 2' Dunk (15 PTS) (Robinson 2 AST)52
11.3%
57
88.7%
Q3 - 4:06MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)52
12.9%
55
87.1%
Q3 - 4:06MIAMourning Tip Shot (11 PTS)52
12.9%
55
87.1%
Q3 - 4:09MIADuncan BLOCK (1 BLK)50
10.0%
55
90.0%
Q3 - 4:14MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)50
11.4%
55
88.6%
Q3 - 4:17SASMISS Parker 3' Layup50
10.8%
55
89.2%
Q3 - 4:45MIAJones 14' Jump Shot (4 PTS)50
9.5%
55
90.5%
Q3 - 4:58SASRobinson Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)48
8.3%
55
91.7%
Q3 - 4:58SASRobinson Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)48
8.7%
54
91.3%
Q3 - 5:14MIAGatling 17' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (House 2 AST)48
9.8%
53
90.2%
Q3 - 5:28MIAJackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)46
8.5%
53
91.5%
Q3 - 5:30SASMISS Duncan 9' Jump Shot46
8.1%
53
91.9%
Q3 - 5:57MIAGatling 20' Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Jackson 2 AST)46
7.2%
53
92.8%
Q3 - 6:23SASDuncan 2' Driving Layup (13 PTS)44
6.4%
53
93.6%
Q3 - 6:40MIAHouse 16' Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Jackson 1 AST)44
7.4%
51
92.6%
Q3 - 6:46SASSmith Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T8)42
6.4%
51
93.6%
Q3 - 7:14MIAJones Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)42
5.6%
51
94.4%
Q3 - 7:14MIAJones Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)41
5.5%
51
94.5%
Q3 - 7:30MIAStepania REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)40
4.9%
51
95.1%
Q3 - 7:32SASMISS Parker 3' Layup40
4.7%
51
95.3%
Q3 - 7:46SASBowen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)40
4.2%
51
95.8%
Q3 - 7:48MIAMISS Gatling 15' Jump Shot40
4.4%
51
95.6%
Q3 - 8:03SASSmith Foul Turnover (P1.T7)40
5.1%
51
94.9%
Q3 - 8:07SASRobinson REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)40
4.3%
51
95.7%
Q3 - 8:09MIAMISS Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot40
4.5%
51
95.5%
Q3 - 8:21SASParker Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T6)40
5.1%
51
94.9%
Q3 - 8:27SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:9)40
4.3%
51
95.7%
Q3 - 8:29MIAMISS Strickland 4' Jump Shot40
4.5%
51
95.5%
Q3 - 8:48SASSmith 2' Layup (8 PTS)40
5.1%
51
94.9%
Q3 - 9:04MIAGrant 18' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Strickland 4 AST)40
5.8%
49
94.2%
Q3 - 9:17SASRobinson Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)38
5.1%
49
94.9%
Q3 - 9:17SASRobinson Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)38
5.3%
48
94.7%
Q3 - 9:27MIADuncan STEAL (1 STL)38
5.8%
47
94.2%
Q3 - 9:45SASSmith Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)38
6.7%
47
93.3%
Q3 - 9:45SASSmith Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)38
6.9%
46
93.1%
Q3 - 10:00MIASmith STEAL (2 STL)38
7.6%
45
92.4%
Q3 - 10:15MIAHeat Rebound38
8.8%
45
91.2%
Q3 - 10:16MIAMISS Grant 7' Jump Shot38
7.9%
45
92.1%
Q3 - 10:36MIAJones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)38
8.8%
45
91.2%
Q3 - 10:39SASMISS Duncan 1' Dunk38
8.4%
45
91.6%
Q3 - 10:49MIAGrant 16' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Jones 1 AST)38
7.6%
45
92.4%
Q3 - 11:10SASRobinson Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)36
6.7%
45
93.3%
Q3 - 11:10SASMISS Robinson Free Throw 1 of 236
6.9%
44
93.1%
Q3 - 11:19SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:8)36
6.7%
44
93.3%
Q3 - 11:21MIAMISS Gill 16' Jump Shot36
6.9%
44
93.1%
Q3 - 11:35MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)36
7.6%
44
92.4%
Q3 - 11:38SASMISS Bowen 3PT Jump Shot36
7.3%
44
92.7%
Q2 - 0:00.0SAS36
6.7%
44
93.3%
Q2 - 0:00.0SASSPURS Rebound36
6.7%
44
93.3%
Q2 - 0:00.0SASMISS Daniels 30' 3PT Jump Shot36
7.3%
44
92.7%
Q2 - 0:02.0MIAHouse 25' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Strickland 3 AST)36
7.1%
44
92.9%
Q2 - 0:14.0SASBowen 2' Layup (4 PTS) (Parker 6 AST)33
5.3%
44
94.7%
Q2 - 0:18.0MIABowen STEAL (2 STL)33
6.3%
42
93.7%
Q2 - 0:43.0SASBowen 2' Driving Layup (2 PTS)33
6.8%
42
93.2%
Q2 - 0:56.0MIAStepania REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)33
8.0%
40
92.0%
Q2 - 0:56.0MIAStepania 1' Tip Shot (6 PTS)33
8.0%
40
92.0%
Q2 - 0:57.0MIAMISS House 17' Jump Shot31
6.4%
40
93.6%
Q2 - 1:10SASDuncan Free Throw 1 of 1 (11 PTS)31
7.0%
40
93.0%
Q2 - 1:10SASDuncan 1' Layup (10 PTS) (Parker 5 AST)31
7.8%
39
92.2%
Q2 - 1:23SASBryant REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)31
9.3%
37
90.7%
Q2 - 1:26SASMISS Parker 24' 3PT Jump Shot31
9.7%
37
90.3%
Q2 - 1:31SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7)31
9.3%
37
90.7%
Q2 - 1:35MIAMISS Stepania 1' Layup31
9.5%
37
90.5%
Q2 - 1:37MIAStepania REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)31
9.9%
37
90.1%
Q2 - 1:40SASMISS Parker 5' Jump Shot31
9.7%
37
90.3%
Q2 - 1:50SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)31
9.3%
37
90.7%
Q2 - 1:53MIAMISS Stepania 12' Turnaround Jump Shot31
9.5%
37
90.5%
Q2 - 2:10SASDaniels Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)31
10.3%
37
89.7%
Q2 - 2:10SASDaniels Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)31
10.5%
36
89.5%
Q2 - 2:17MIAGatling Foul Turnover (P1.T9)31
11.6%
35
88.4%
Q2 - 2:33MIAStrickland REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)31
12.8%
35
87.2%
Q2 - 2:34SASMISS Robinson 9' Jump Hook Shot31
12.4%
35
87.6%
Q2 - 2:52SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)31
11.6%
35
88.4%
Q2 - 2:55MIAMISS Gatling 4' Jump Shot31
12.0%
35
88.0%
Q2 - 3:13SASDuncan 1' Layup (8 PTS) (Robinson 1 AST)31
12.9%
35
87.1%
Q2 - 3:22SASRobinson REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)31
14.1%
33
85.9%
Q2 - 3:24MIAMISS Mourning 16' Jump Shot31
14.6%
33
85.4%
Q2 - 3:35MIAJackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)31
15.8%
33
84.2%
Q2 - 3:37SASMISS Robinson 18' Jump Shot31
15.3%
33
84.7%
Q2 - 3:50MIAMourning 1' Layup (9 PTS) (Strickland 2 AST)31
14.1%
33
85.9%
Q2 - 3:54MIAGatling REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)29
12.9%
33
87.1%
Q2 - 3:57SASMISS Daniels 3PT Jump Shot29
12.4%
33
87.6%
Q2 - 4:12MIAJones Traveling Turnover (P2.T8)29
11.4%
33
88.6%
Q2 - 4:37SASFerry 22' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Parker 4 AST)29
12.7%
33
87.3%
Q2 - 4:58MIAStrickland 18' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Grant 1 AST)29
14.0%
31
86.0%
Q2 - 5:23MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)27
12.6%
31
87.4%
Q2 - 5:25SASMISS Ferry 19' Jump Shot27
12.2%
31
87.8%
Q2 - 5:37MIAJackson 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Mourning 1 AST)27
11.3%
31
88.7%
Q2 - 6:04SASRobinson REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)24
9.5%
31
90.5%
Q2 - 6:04SASRobinson 1' Tip Shot (6 PTS)24
9.5%
31
90.5%
Q2 - 6:06SASMISS Daniels 3' Layup24
11.1%
29
88.9%
Q2 - 6:17SASFerry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)24
10.2%
29
89.8%
Q2 - 6:19MIAMISS Mourning 13' Turnaround Jump Shot24
10.6%
29
89.4%
Q2 - 6:33SASDaniels Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)24
11.5%
29
88.5%
Q2 - 6:33SASDaniels Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)24
11.8%
28
88.2%
Q2 - 6:37MIARose STEAL (1 STL)24
12.4%
27
87.6%
Q2 - 6:48MIAStrickland REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)24
14.0%
27
86.0%
Q2 - 6:52SASMISS Daniels 3PT Jump Shot24
13.5%
27
86.5%
Q2 - 7:04SASFerry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)24
12.7%
27
87.3%
Q2 - 7:07MIAMISS House 21' Jump Shot24
13.0%
27
87.0%
Q2 - 7:21MIAHeat Rebound24
13.9%
27
86.1%
Q2 - 7:22SASMISS Parker 18' Jump Shot24
13.5%
27
86.5%
Q2 - 7:35SASFerry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)24
12.6%
27
87.4%
Q2 - 7:37SASMISS Robinson 12' Jump Shot24
13.5%
27
86.5%
Q2 - 7:45SASRose REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)24
12.6%
27
87.4%
Q2 - 7:47MIAMISS Jackson 14' Jump Shot24
13.0%
27
87.0%
Q2 - 8:03SASSPURS Turnover: Shot Clock (T#5)24
13.9%
27
86.1%
Q2 - 8:31MIAHouse 2' Running Layup (4 PTS)24
12.6%
27
87.4%
Q2 - 8:43SASBowen Traveling Turnover (P3.T4)22
11.6%
27
88.4%
Q2 - 8:43SASBowen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)22
10.5%
27
89.5%
Q2 - 8:45SASMISS Bowen 4' Jump Shot22
11.3%
27
88.7%
Q2 - 9:11MIAJackson 17' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (House 1 AST)22
10.5%
27
89.5%
Q2 - 9:18MIAGatling REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)20
9.7%
27
90.3%
Q2 - 9:21SASMISS Rose 3' Layup20
9.4%
27
90.6%
Q2 - 9:34MIACarter Driving Layup (2 PTS)20
8.7%
27
91.3%
Q2 - 9:46SASRose 2' Layup (4 PTS)18
8.0%
27
92.0%
Q2 - 9:48SASRose REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)18
8.7%
25
91.3%
Q2 - 9:51SASMISS Rose 1' Layup18
9.4%
25
90.6%
Q2 - 10:02MIAJackson 21' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Carter 2 AST)18
8.9%
25
91.1%
Q2 - 10:15MIACarter REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)16
8.2%
25
91.8%
Q2 - 10:17MIAMISS House 17' Jump Shot16
7.6%
25
92.4%
Q2 - 10:34SASBowen Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T3)16
8.2%
25
91.8%
Q2 - 10:42SASFerry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)16
7.4%
25
92.6%
Q2 - 10:44MIAMISS Gatling 17' Jump Shot16
7.6%
25
92.4%
Q2 - 11:01SASDaniels 5' Layup (2 PTS)16
8.1%
25
91.9%
Q2 - 11:21MIAHouse 6' Running Jump Shot (2 PTS)16
8.8%
23
91.2%
Q2 - 11:44SASRose 1' Reverse Layup (2 PTS)14
8.1%
23
91.9%
Q1 - 0:00.0MIA14
8.8%
21
91.2%
Q1 - 0:00.0MIAStepania REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)14
9.7%
21
90.3%
Q1 - 0:01.0SASMISS Porter 17' Jump Shot14
9.4%
21
90.6%
Q1 - 0:22.0MIAStepania 2' Layup (4 PTS)14
9.0%
21
91.0%
Q1 - 0:22.0MIAStepania REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)12
8.0%
21
92.0%
Q1 - 0:24.0MIAMISS Jackson 7' Jump Shot12
7.7%
21
92.3%
Q1 - 0:33.0MIACarter REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)12
8.0%
21
92.0%
Q1 - 0:37.0SASMISS Ferry 24' 3PT Jump Shot12
7.9%
21
92.1%
Q1 - 0:56.0MIAGatling Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)12
7.5%
21
92.5%
Q1 - 0:56.0MIAMISS Gatling Free Throw 1 of 211
7.4%
21
92.6%
Q1 - 1:04SASParker Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T2)11
7.4%
21
92.6%
Q1 - 1:13MIAStepania Foul Turnover (P1.T6)11
6.9%
21
93.1%
Q1 - 1:19MIAJackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)11
7.4%
21
92.6%
Q1 - 1:21SASMISS Duncan 16' Jump Shot11
7.3%
21
92.7%
Q1 - 1:30SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)11
6.9%
21
93.1%
Q1 - 1:32MIAMISS House 27' 3PT Jump Shot11
7.1%
21
92.9%
Q1 - 1:55MIAHouse REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)11
7.4%
21
92.6%
Q1 - 1:57SASMISS Rose 15' Jump Shot11
7.3%
21
92.7%
Q1 - 2:18MIAStepania 17' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Carter 1 AST)11
6.9%
21
93.1%
Q1 - 2:31MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)9
6.3%
21
93.7%
Q1 - 2:33SASMISS Smith 17' Jump Shot9
6.1%
21
93.9%
Q1 - 2:40SASRose REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)9
5.8%
21
94.2%
Q1 - 2:42MIAMISS Stepania 3' Layup9
5.9%
21
94.1%
Q1 - 3:03SASFerry 17' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Parker 3 AST)9
6.5%
21
93.5%
Q1 - 3:18SASRose REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)9
7.0%
19
93.0%
Q1 - 3:21MIAMISS House 1' Running Layup9
7.2%
19
92.8%
Q1 - 3:35MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)9
7.7%
19
92.3%
Q1 - 3:38SASMISS Parker Free Throw 2 of 29
7.6%
19
92.4%
Q1 - 3:38SASParker Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)9
7.2%
19
92.8%
Q1 - 3:42MIASmith STEAL (1 STL)9
7.6%
18
92.4%
Q1 - 3:55MIAJackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)9
8.3%
18
91.7%
Q1 - 3:57SASMISS Duncan 14' Jump Shot9
8.1%
18
91.9%
Q1 - 4:18MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)9
7.5%
18
92.5%
Q1 - 4:18MIAMourning 1' Tip Shot (7 PTS)9
7.5%
18
92.5%
Q1 - 4:20MIAMISS Stepania 2' Layup7
6.6%
18
93.4%
Q1 - 4:22MIAStepania REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)7
7.0%
18
93.0%
Q1 - 4:23MIAMISS Carter 8' Jump Shot7
6.6%
18
93.4%
Q1 - 4:58SASDuncan 7' Running Jump Shot (6 PTS)7
7.1%
18
92.9%
Q1 - 5:28MIAStrickland 10' Jump Shot (2 PTS)7
7.6%
16
92.4%
Q1 - 5:30MIAStrickland REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)5
7.1%
16
92.9%
Q1 - 5:32MIAMISS Gill 15' Jump Shot5
6.7%
16
93.3%
Q1 - 5:49SASParker 18' Jump Shot (4 PTS)5
7.1%
16
92.9%
Q1 - 6:07SASRobinson REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)5
7.8%
14
92.2%
Q1 - 6:09MIAMISS Grant 16' Jump Shot5
8.0%
14
92.0%
Q1 - 6:27SASDuncan 15' Jump Shot (4 PTS)5
8.4%
14
91.6%
Q1 - 6:39MIAMourning Foul Turnover (P2.T4)5
9.0%
12
91.0%
Q1 - 6:47SASSmith 17' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Parker 2 AST)5
9.7%
12
90.3%
Q1 - 7:06MIAMourning 3 Second Violation Turnover (P1.T3)5
10.4%
10
89.6%
Q1 - 7:34MIAJones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)5
11.3%
10
88.7%
Q1 - 7:36SASMISS Smith 2' Layup5
11.0%
10
89.0%
Q1 - 7:49MIAMourning 13' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Gill 1 AST)5
10.4%
10
89.6%
Q1 - 8:04SASBowen Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)3
9.7%
10
90.3%
Q1 - 8:11MIAMourning Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)3
9.0%
10
91.0%
Q1 - 8:11MIAMourning 1' Layup (2 PTS) (Strickland 1 AST)2
8.4%
10
91.6%
Q1 - 8:28SASDuncan 1' Dunk (2 PTS) (Parker 1 AST)0
7.9%
10
92.1%
Q1 - 8:36SASRobinson REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)0
8.4%
8
91.6%
Q1 - 8:38MIAMISS Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot0
8.6%
8
91.4%
Q1 - 8:54MIAGill REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)0
9.1%
8
90.9%
Q1 - 8:54SASMISS Parker Free Throw 2 of 20
9.0%
8
91.0%
Q1 - 8:54SASMISS Parker Free Throw 1 of 20
8.6%
8
91.4%
Q1 - 8:57SASParker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)0
8.4%
8
91.6%
Q1 - 8:59MIAMISS Jones 26' 3PT Jump Shot0
8.6%
8
91.4%
Q1 - 9:26SASSmith 1' Dunk (2 PTS)0
9.0%
8
91.0%
Q1 - 9:29MIABowen STEAL (1 STL)0
9.5%
6
90.5%
Q1 - 9:48SASRobinson REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)0
10.3%
6
89.7%
Q1 - 9:48SASRobinson 1' Follow Up Dunk (4 PTS)0
10.3%
6
89.7%
Q1 - 9:50SASMISS Bowen 8' Jump Shot0
11.5%
4
88.5%
Q1 - 9:59SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)0
10.9%
4
89.1%
Q1 - 10:01MIAMISS Strickland 17' Jump Shot0
11.2%
4
88.8%
Q1 - 10:22MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)0
11.7%
4
88.3%
Q1 - 10:23SASMISS Smith 16' Jump Shot0
11.5%
4
88.5%
Q1 - 10:31SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)0
10.9%
4
89.1%
Q1 - 10:33MIAMISS Mourning 14' Turnaround Hook Shot0
11.1%
4
88.9%
Q1 - 10:54SASParker 1' Finger Roll (2 PTS)0
11.8%
4
88.2%
Q1 - 11:04MIAHeat Turnover: Shot Clock (T#1)0
12.5%
2
87.5%
Q1 - 11:31SASRobinson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)0
13.3%
2
86.7%
Q1 - 11:31SASRobinson Layup (2 PTS)0
13.3%
2
86.7%
Q1 - 11:34SASMISS Robinson 2' Layup0
14.8%
0
85.2%
Q1 - 11:44SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)0
14.2%
0
85.8%
Q1 - 11:46MIAMISS Mourning 12' Jump Shot0
14.5%
0
85.5%
Q1 - 12:00SASJump Ball Robinson vs. Mourning: Tip to Strickland0
15.1%
0
84.9%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIA
0.93 46.5%
SAS
0.96 47.8%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
MIA
11
20
55%
SAS
23
39
59%
Midrange
MIA
18
44
41%
SAS
10
26
38%
3PT | Effective 3PT
MIA
2
3.0
10
20%
30%
SAS
1
1.5
9
11%
17%
Free Throws
MIA
15
17
88%
SAS
20
27
74%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
MIA logo Heat
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
J. Jackson1771%8.5 / 12
A. Mourning1650%8.0 / 16
E. House1354%6.5 / 12
E. Jones840%4.0 / 10
B. Grant857%4.0 / 7
V. Stepania638%3.0 / 8
C. Gatling536%2.5 / 7
R. Strickland433%2.0 / 6
A. Carter233%1.0 / 3
K. Gill0-0.0 / 2
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
SAS logo Spurs
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
T. Duncan2364%11.5 / 18
T. Parker1447%7.0 / 15
C. Smith1267%6.0 / 9
D. Robinson1150%5.5 / 11
A. Daniels1045%5.0 / 11
B. Bowen739%3.5 / 9
M. Rose633%3.0 / 9
D. Ferry450%2.0 / 4
C. Parks2100%1.0 / 1
T. Porter0-0.0 / 1
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

MIA
71
+14
-17
85
SAS
78
+14
-11
92
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA
0.93 46.5%
SAS
0.96 47.8%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
96.1
103.9
MIA 89.8 +10.2
SAS 100.0
Pace
89.7
92.4
MIA 78.7
SAS 100.9 +22.2
Avg. Poss. Time
16.7
15.5
MIA 18.3
SAS 14.3 +4.0
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
46.3%
49.2%
MIA 43.2%
SAS 46.6% +3.4%
TO %
15.5%
14.8%
MIA 18.1%
SAS 13.1% +5.0%
ORB %
26.7%
27.2%
MIA 29.3%
SAS 29.3%
FTrt
26.8
35.3
MIA 23.0
SAS 36.5 +13.5
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
59.4%
56.4%
MIA 58.1% +19.9%
SAS 38.2%
STL %
7.4%
8.2%
MIA 5.7%
SAS 10.1% +4.4%
BLK %
8.7%
9.5%
MIA 7.7% +6.1%
SAS 1.6%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.08 and 2.08.

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
47.7%
51.2%
MIA 46.5%
SAS 47.8% +1.3%
Rim FG%
60.6%
60.3%
MIA 55.0%
SAS 59.0% +4.0%
Mid FG%
38.0%
37.6%
MIA 40.9% +2.4%
SAS 38.5%
3P %
34.7%
36.2%
MIA 20.0% +8.9%
SAS 11.1%
FT %
72.4%
74.2%
MIA 88.2% +14.1%
SAS 74.1%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
28.1%
37.2%
MIA 27.0%
SAS 52.7% +25.7%
Mid Att. %
57.8%
43.8%
MIA 59.5%
SAS 35.1% +24.3%
3P Att. %
14.1%
19.0%
MIA 13.5% +1.4%
SAS 12.2%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.
Game TotalsMIASAS
Possessions8889
Possession Minutes26.821.2
Points7989
Rebounds4141
Assists1813
Steals59
Blocks51
Turnovers (Team)17 (1)11 (2)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)12 (2)12 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)29 (1)29 (1)
Field Goals31-7434-74
At-the-Rim FG11-2023-39
Midrange FG18-4410-26
2-Point FG29-6433-65
3-Point FG2-101-9
Free Throws15-1720-27
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
C · 6'10" 261 · 32
31.7
16
50%
11
1
0
2
3
3
4
7
4-5
80%
6-13
46%
0-0
-
G · 6'6" 200 · 30
30.7
8
40%
4
2
1
0
3
3
1
3
4-4
100%
2-3
67%
0-5
0%
G · 6'3" 185 · 36
27.0
4
33%
3
5
0
0
2
3
1
2
0-0
-
2-6
33%
0-0
-
F · 6'9" 254 · 30
21.7
8
57%
3
1
0
0
0
6
0
3
0-0
-
4-7
57%
0-0
-
F · 6'5" 216 · 34
11.6
0
0%
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0-0
-
0-2
0%
0-0
-
F-G · 6'6" 220 · 31
35.0
17
71%
7
2
3
0
1
2
1
6
4-4
100%
5-8
63%
1-2
50%
G · 6'1" 190 · 24
26.6
13
54%
1
3
0
0
2
1
0
1
2-2
100%
4-8
50%
1-3
33%
C · 7'1" 255 · 26
24.6
6
38%
7
0
0
3
1
2
4
3
0-0
-
3-8
38%
0-0
-
F · 6'10" · 35
18.0
5
36%
2
1
0
0
2
5
0
2
1-2
50%
2-6
33%
0-0
-
G · 6'1" 190 · 27
13.2
2
33%
2
2
1
0
2
1
1
1
0-0
-
1-3
33%
0-0
-
F · 6'8" 240 · 32
F-C · 6'10" 250 · 27
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
79
47%
41
18
5
5
17
0
12
29
15-17
88%
29-64
45%
2-10
20%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.