Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, March 4, 2002

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	29	Grizzlies	22%	90	76
	24	Hawks	78%	100	95

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
MEM	86.4	88	96.1
ATL	108.0	88	81.2

Scoring Opportunities

MEM

+12

-15

ATL

-16

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MEM

0.86 43.2%

ATL

1.16 57.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	MEM	ATL
Q4 - 0:00.0	MEM		76 0%	95 100%
Q4 - 0:05.0	ATL	Bowdler REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	76 0%	95 100%
Q4 - 0:05.0	ATL	Bowdler 6' Hook Shot (4 PTS)	76 0%	95 100%
Q4 - 0:08.0	ATL	MISS Strickland 26' 3PT Jump Shot	76 0%	93 100%
Q4 - 0:29.0	ATL	Bowdler REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	76 0%	93 100%
Q4 - 0:31.0	MEM	MISS Battier 25' 3PT Jump Shot	76 0%	93 100%
Q4 - 0:36.0	ATL	Bowdler Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T17)	76 0.1%	93 99.9%
Q4 - 0:51.0	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	76 0.1%	93 99.9%
Q4 - 0:55.0	ATL	MISS Bowdler 20' Jump Shot	76 0.1%	93 99.9%
Q4 - 1:13	MEM	Swift Alley Oop Dunk (8 PTS) (Gill 3 AST)	76 0.1%	93 99.9%
Q4 - 1:25	ATL	Strickland 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Vaughn 5 AST)	74 0.1%	93 99.9%
Q4 - 1:42	ATL	Bowdler REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	74 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 1:43	MEM	MISS Gasol 6' Jump Shot	74 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 1:57	MEM	Fontaine REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	74 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 1:58	ATL	MISS Bowdler Layup	74 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 2:18	MEM	Swift Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	74 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 2:18	MEM	Swift Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	73 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 2:18	MEM	Grizzlies Rebound	72 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 2:18	ATL	MISS Johnson 5' Jump Shot	72 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 2:37	ATL	Bowdler REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	72 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 2:38	MEM	MISS Battier 10' Jump Shot	72 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 2:58	ATL	HAWKS Turnover: Backcourt (T#16)	72 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 3:25	ATL	Bowdler REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	72 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 3:26	MEM	MISS Fontaine Free Throw 2 of 2	72 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 3:26	MEM	MISS Fontaine Free Throw 1 of 2	72 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 3:31	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	72 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 3:33	ATL	Bowdler REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	72 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 3:33	ATL	MISS Bowdler Tip Shot	72 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 3:35	ATL	MISS Johnson 14' Jump Shot	72 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 3:56	MEM	Battier 15' Jump Shot (20 PTS)	72 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 4:17	ATL	Bowdler 13' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Vaughn 4 AST)	70 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 4:27	ATL	Mohammed REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	70 0.1%	88 99.9%
Q4 - 4:30	MEM	MISS Swift 8' Jump Shot	70 0.1%	88 99.9%
Q4 - 4:41	ATL	Mohammed Foul Turnover (P2.T15)	70 0.1%	88 99.9%
Q4 - 5:02	MEM	Battier 6' Running Jump Shot (18 PTS)	70 0.1%	88 99.9%
Q4 - 5:16	ATL	Mottola Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T14)	68 0.1%	88 99.9%
Q4 - 5:32	ATL	Mohammed REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	68 0.1%	88 99.9%
Q4 - 5:34	MEM	MISS Buford 15' Jump Shot	68 0.1%	88 99.9%
Q4 - 5:45	ATL	Johnson 9' Running Jump Shot (7 PTS)	68 0.1%	88 99.9%
Q4 - 6:08	MEM	Fontaine 27' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Gasol 2 AST)	68 0.1%	86 99.9%
Q4 - 6:30	ATL	Kukoc Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T13)	65 0.1%	86 99.9%
Q4 - 6:44	MEM	Vaughn STEAL (1 STL)	65 0.1%	86 99.9%
Q4 - 7:05	ATL	Newble Dunk (10 PTS) (Kukoc 4 AST)	65 0.1%	86 99.9%
Q4 - 7:19	MEM	Buford Foul Turnover (P2.T16)	65 0.2%	84 99.8%
Q4 - 7:22	MEM	Buford REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	65 0.2%	84 99.8%
Q4 - 7:24	ATL	MISS Mottola 19' Jump Shot	65 0.2%	84 99.8%
Q4 - 7:43	MEM	Battier Dunk (16 PTS) (Gasol 1 AST)	65 0.2%	84 99.8%
Q4 - 7:59	ATL	Mottola Out Of Bounds Turnover (P2.T12)	63 0.1%	84 99.9%
Q4 - 8:22	MEM	Buford 18' Jump Shot (6 PTS)	63 0.1%	84 99.9%
Q4 - 8:30	MEM	Grizzlies Rebound	61 0.1%	84 99.9%
Q4 - 8:30	MEM	MISS Buford Layup	61 0.1%	84 99.9%
Q4 - 8:55	ATL	Kukoc 27' 3PT Jump Shot (24 PTS) (Vaughn 3 AST)	61 0.1%	84 99.9%
Q4 - 9:17	MEM	Buford 5' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	61 0.2%	81 99.8%
Q4 - 9:28	ATL	Mottola Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T11)	59 0.2%	81 99.8%
Q4 - 9:42	ATL	Mottola REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	59 0.1%	81 99.9%
Q4 - 9:44	MEM	MISS Buford 16' Jump Shot	59 0.2%	81 99.8%
Q4 - 9:54	ATL	Kukoc Free Throw 2 of 2 (21 PTS)	59 0.2%	81 99.8%
Q4 - 9:54	ATL	Kukoc Free Throw 1 of 2 (20 PTS)	59 0.2%	80 99.8%
Q4 - 10:14	MEM	Buford Layup (2 PTS) (Fontaine 1 AST)	59 0.3%	79 99.7%
Q4 - 10:31	ATL	Kukoc 26' 3PT Jump Shot (19 PTS) (Mottola 2 AST)	57 0.3%	79 99.7%
Q4 - 10:57	MEM	Swift 13' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	57 0.4%	76 99.6%
Q4 - 11:03	MEM	Buford REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	55 0.4%	76 99.6%
Q4 - 11:06	ATL	MISS Henderson 5' Jump Shot	55 0.4%	76 99.6%
Q4 - 11:16	ATL	Vaughn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	55 0.3%	76 99.7%
Q4 - 11:17	MEM	MISS Battier Free Throw 2 of 2	55 0.3%	76 99.7%
Q4 - 11:17	MEM	MISS Battier Free Throw 1 of 2	55 0.4%	76 99.6%
Q4 - 11:34	ATL	Kukoc Free Throw 1 of 1 (16 PTS)	55 0.4%	76 99.6%
Q4 - 11:34	ATL	Kukoc Layup (15 PTS)	55 0.5%	75 99.5%
Q4 - 11:42	ATL	Vaughn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	55 0.6%	73 99.4%
Q4 - 11:44	MEM	Johnson BLOCK (1 BLK)	55 0.6%	73 99.4%
Q3 - 0:00.0	ATL		55 0.7%	73 99.3%
Q3 - 0:00.0	ATL	HAWKS Rebound	55 0.6%	73 99.4%
Q3 - 0:00.0	MEM	MISS Buford 18' Jump Shot	55 0.6%	73 99.4%
Q3 - 0:05.0	ATL	Kukoc Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS)	55 0.9%	73 99.1%
Q3 - 0:05.0	ATL	Kukoc Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)	55 0.9%	72 99.1%
Q3 - 0:26.0	MEM	Buford Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T15)	55 1.1%	71 98.9%
Q3 - 0:42.0	ATL	Henderson Foul Turnover (P1.T10)	55 1.3%	71 98.7%
Q3 - 0:58.0	MEM	Battier 15' Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Swift 1 AST)	55 1.1%	71 98.9%
Q3 - 1:17	ATL	Kukoc 26' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Newble 3 AST)	53 1.0%	71 99.0%
Q3 - 1:26	MEM	Fontaine Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	53 1.5%	68 98.5%
Q3 - 1:26	MEM	Fontaine Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)	52 1.4%	68 98.6%
Q3 - 1:31	MEM	Grizzlies Rebound	51 1.2%	68 98.8%
Q3 - 1:33	ATL	MISS Abdur-Rahim 26' 3PT Jump Shot	51 1.2%	68 98.8%
Q3 - 1:44	ATL	Kukoc REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	51 1.0%	68 99.0%
Q3 - 1:46	MEM	MISS Buford 20' Jump Shot	51 1.1%	68 98.9%
Q3 - 2:14	ATL	Kukoc 24' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Vaughn 2 AST)	51 1.4%	68 98.6%
Q3 - 2:23	ATL	Henderson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	51 2.0%	65 98.0%
Q3 - 2:25	MEM	MISS Gill 17' Jump Shot	51 2.1%	65 97.9%
Q3 - 2:46	ATL	Henderson Layup (7 PTS) (Kukoc 3 AST)	51 2.4%	65 97.6%
Q3 - 3:05	MEM	Gill Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)	51 3.1%	63 96.9%
Q3 - 3:05	MEM	Gill Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)	50 3.1%	63 96.9%
Q3 - 3:20	ATL	Terry 24' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Abdur-Rahim 5 AST)	49 2.7%	63 97.3%
Q3 - 3:26	ATL	Kukoc REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	49 3.7%	60 96.3%
Q3 - 3:28	MEM	MISS Gasol 8' Jump Shot	49 3.9%	60 96.1%
Q3 - 3:49	ATL	Mohammed 3 Second Violation Turnover (P1.T9)	49 4.5%	60 95.5%
Q3 - 4:06	ATL	Abdur-Rahim REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	49 3.9%	60 96.1%
Q3 - 4:07	MEM	MISS Gill Free Throw 2 of 2	49 4.0%	60 96.0%
Q3 - 4:07	MEM	Gill Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)	49 4.4%	60 95.6%
Q3 - 4:30	ATL	Newble Layup (8 PTS) (Abdur-Rahim 4 AST)	48 3.9%	60 96.1%
Q3 - 4:50	MEM	Gasol 7' Turnaround Jump Shot (12 PTS)	48 4.5%	58 95.5%
Q3 - 5:15	ATL	Abdur-Rahim 5' Jump Shot (23 PTS)	46 4.2%	58 95.8%
Q3 - 5:26	MEM	Grizzlies Turnover: Shot Clock (T#14)	46 4.8%	56 95.2%
Q3 - 5:49	MEM	Wright REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	46 5.7%	56 94.3%
Q3 - 5:50	ATL	MISS Abdur-Rahim Free Throw 2 of 2	46 5.6%	56 94.4%
Q3 - 5:50	ATL	MISS Abdur-Rahim Free Throw 1 of 2	46 5.0%	56 95.0%
Q3 - 5:50	ATL	Abdur-Rahim REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	46 4.8%	56 95.2%
Q3 - 5:52	ATL	MISS Kukoc 15' Jump Shot	46 5.4%	56 94.6%
Q3 - 5:58	MEM	Terry STEAL (3 STL)	46 4.8%	56 95.2%
Q3 - 6:18	MEM	Wright REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	46 5.9%	56 94.1%
Q3 - 6:20	ATL	MISS Abdur-Rahim 12' Jump Shot	46 5.6%	56 94.4%
Q3 - 6:32	ATL	HAWKS Rebound	46 5.0%	56 95.0%
Q3 - 6:33	MEM	MISS Gill 20' Jump Shot	46 5.3%	56 94.7%
Q3 - 6:43	MEM	Battier Free Throw Technical (12 PTS)	46 5.9%	56 94.1%
Q3 - 7:02	ATL	Terry 17' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Newble 2 AST)	45 5.3%	56 94.7%
Q3 - 7:20	MEM	Wright Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T12)	45 6.0%	54 94.0%
Q3 - 7:31	ATL	Kukoc Running Layup (5 PTS)	45 7.1%	54 92.9%
Q3 - 7:51	MEM	Battier 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Wright 1 AST)	45 8.0%	52 92.0%
Q3 - 8:07	ATL	Abdur-Rahim Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T8)	42 6.3%	52 93.7%
Q3 - 8:17	MEM	Gasol Traveling Turnover (P2.T11)	42 5.3%	52 94.7%
Q3 - 8:37	ATL	Abdur-Rahim Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T7)	42 6.3%	52 93.7%
Q3 - 8:52	MEM	Grizzlies Turnover: Shot Clock (T#10)	42 5.3%	52 94.7%
Q3 - 8:54	MEM	Wright REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	42 6.3%	52 93.7%
Q3 - 8:56	MEM	Abdur-Rahim BLOCK (1 BLK)	42 5.6%	52 94.4%
Q3 - 9:20	ATL	Abdur-Rahim 6' Hook Shot (21 PTS) (Terry 5 AST)	42 6.3%	52 93.7%
Q3 - 9:36	ATL	Mohammed REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	42 7.2%	50 92.8%
Q3 - 9:38	MEM	MISS Wright 7' Jump Shot	42 7.5%	50 92.5%
Q3 - 9:44	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:3 Def:0)	42 8.2%	50 91.8%
Q3 - 9:48	MEM	MISS Long 19' Jump Shot	42 7.5%	50 92.5%
Q3 - 10:03	ATL	Newble 16' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Abdur-Rahim 3 AST)	42 8.3%	50 91.7%
Q3 - 10:24	MEM	Gill 15' Jump Shot (8 PTS)	42 9.3%	48 90.7%
Q3 - 10:30	MEM	Long REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	40 8.3%	48 91.7%
Q3 - 10:32	ATL	MISS Johnson 6' Jump Shot	40 7.9%	48 92.1%
Q3 - 10:47	ATL	Mohammed REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	40 7.2%	48 92.8%
Q3 - 10:48	MEM	MISS Wright Free Throw 2 of 2	40 7.3%	48 92.7%
Q3 - 10:48	MEM	MISS Wright Free Throw 1 of 2	40 7.8%	48 92.2%
Q3 - 11:08	ATL	Newble Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T6)	40 8.2%	48 91.8%
Q3 - 11:10	ATL	Mohammed REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	40 7.2%	48 92.8%
Q3 - 11:11	ATL	MISS Mohammed 9' Jump Shot	40 7.9%	48 92.1%
Q3 - 11:23	MEM	Abdur-Rahim STEAL (1 STL)	40 7.2%	48 92.8%
Q3 - 11:35	MEM	Long REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	40 8.2%	48 91.8%
Q3 - 11:37	ATL	MISS Mohammed 11' Jump Shot	40 7.9%	48 92.1%
Q2 - 0:00.0	ATL		40 7.2%	48 92.8%
Q2 - 0:00.0	ATL	HAWKS Rebound	40 7.2%	48 92.8%
Q2 - 0:00.0	MEM	MISS Battier 28' 3PT Jump Shot	40 7.5%	48 92.5%
Q2 - 0:13.0	ATL	Newble Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T5)	40 8.3%	48 91.7%
Q2 - 0:17.0	MEM	Long 23' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Gill 2 AST)	40 7.7%	48 92.3%
Q2 - 0:42.0	ATL	Abdur-Rahim 4' Turnaround Jump Shot (19 PTS)	38 6.5%	48 93.5%
Q2 - 0:54.0	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)	38 7.6%	46 92.4%
Q2 - 0:54.0	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)	37 7.4%	46 92.6%
Q2 - 0:59.0	MEM	Wright REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	36 6.5%	46 93.5%
Q2 - 1:01	ATL	MISS Terry 25' 3PT Jump Shot	36 6.6%	46 93.4%
Q2 - 1:09	ATL	Mohammed REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	36 6.3%	46 93.7%
Q2 - 1:11	MEM	MISS Gill 11' Jump Shot	36 6.4%	46 93.6%
Q2 - 1:21	MEM	Wright REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	36 6.7%	46 93.3%
Q2 - 1:23	ATL	MISS Newble Layup	36 6.5%	46 93.5%
Q2 - 1:43	MEM	Gill 14' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Long 3 AST)	36 6.3%	46 93.7%
Q2 - 1:45	MEM	Grizzlies Rebound	34 5.2%	46 94.8%
Q2 - 1:47	MEM	MISS Long 15' Jump Shot	34 5.0%	46 95.0%
Q2 - 1:56	ATL	Terry Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T4)	34 5.2%	46 94.8%
Q2 - 2:18	MEM	Wright Layup (6 PTS) (Battier 2 AST)	34 5.0%	46 95.0%
Q2 - 2:39	ATL	Abdur-Rahim Free Throw 2 of 2 (17 PTS)	32 4.4%	46 95.6%
Q2 - 2:39	ATL	MISS Abdur-Rahim Free Throw 1 of 2	32 4.5%	45 95.5%
Q2 - 2:39	ATL	HAWKS Rebound	32 4.4%	45 95.6%
Q2 - 2:41	MEM	MISS Long Free Throw 2 of 2	32 4.5%	45 95.5%
Q2 - 2:41	MEM	MISS Long Free Throw 1 of 2	32 4.9%	45 95.1%
Q2 - 2:41	MEM	Grizzlies Rebound	32 4.9%	45 95.1%
Q2 - 2:41	MEM	MISS Gill 24' 3PT Jump Shot	32 4.6%	45 95.4%
Q2 - 3:03	MEM	Grizzlies Rebound	32 5.2%	45 94.8%
Q2 - 3:03	ATL	MISS Johnson Layup	32 5.0%	45 95.0%
Q2 - 3:19	MEM	Gasol Driving Layup (8 PTS)	32 4.6%	45 95.4%
Q2 - 3:36	ATL	Abdur-Rahim 5' Hook Shot (16 PTS) (Kukoc 2 AST)	30 4.1%	45 95.9%
Q2 - 3:46	ATL	Abdur-Rahim REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	30 4.6%	43 95.4%
Q2 - 3:48	MEM	MISS Long Free Throw 2 of 2	30 4.7%	43 95.3%
Q2 - 3:48	MEM	MISS Long Free Throw 1 of 2	30 5.0%	43 95.0%
Q2 - 3:52	MEM	Wright REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	30 5.2%	43 94.8%
Q2 - 3:54	ATL	MISS Mottola 6' Jump Shot	30 5.0%	43 95.0%
Q2 - 4:14	MEM	Wright Layup (4 PTS) (Long 2 AST)	30 4.8%	43 95.2%
Q2 - 4:26	ATL	Vaughn Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T3)	28 4.3%	43 95.7%
Q2 - 4:33	ATL	Abdur-Rahim REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	28 3.8%	43 96.2%
Q2 - 4:35	MEM	MISS Long 21' Jump Shot	28 3.9%	43 96.1%
Q2 - 4:48	ATL	Vaughn 16' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Abdur-Rahim 2 AST)	28 4.3%	43 95.7%
Q2 - 5:12	MEM	Battier Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)	28 4.8%	41 95.2%
Q2 - 5:12	MEM	MISS Battier Free Throw 1 of 2	27 4.7%	41 95.3%
Q2 - 5:16	MEM	Long REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	27 4.9%	41 95.1%
Q2 - 5:19	ATL	MISS Johnson 25' 3PT Jump Shot	27 4.7%	41 95.3%
Q2 - 5:34	MEM	Gasol 6' Running Hook Shot (6 PTS)	27 4.3%	41 95.7%
Q2 - 5:53	MEM	Wright REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	25 3.9%	41 96.1%
Q2 - 5:54	ATL	MISS Johnson 8' Jump Shot	25 3.8%	41 96.2%
Q2 - 6:11	MEM	Gill Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	25 3.6%	41 96.4%
Q2 - 6:11	MEM	Gill Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	24 3.5%	41 96.5%
Q2 - 6:13	MEM	Gill REBOUND (Off:3 Def:0)	23 3.3%	41 96.7%
Q2 - 6:15	MEM	MISS Gill Layup	23 3.0%	41 97.0%
Q2 - 6:29	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	23 3.3%	41 96.7%
Q2 - 6:30	ATL	MISS Henderson Layup	23 3.2%	41 96.8%
Q2 - 6:41	ATL	Mottola REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	23 2.9%	41 97.1%
Q2 - 6:43	MEM	MISS Gill Layup	23 3.0%	41 97.0%
Q2 - 7:03	ATL	Henderson Layup (5 PTS) (Kukoc 1 AST)	23 3.5%	41 96.5%
Q2 - 7:08	MEM	MISS Gill Layup	23 4.0%	39 96.0%
Q2 - 7:08	ATL	Kukoc REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	23 3.9%	39 96.1%
Q2 - 7:13	MEM	Gill REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	23 4.3%	39 95.7%
Q2 - 7:13	MEM	MISS Wright 9' Jump Shot	23 4.0%	39 96.0%
Q2 - 7:30	ATL	Kukoc Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)	23 4.3%	39 95.7%
Q2 - 7:30	ATL	Kukoc Layup (2 PTS) (Mottola 1 AST)	23 4.8%	38 95.2%
Q2 - 7:42	ATL	Kukoc REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	23 5.2%	36 94.8%
Q2 - 7:44	MEM	MISS Gill 3PT Jump Shot	23 5.4%	36 94.6%
Q2 - 8:07	MEM	Swift REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	23 5.9%	36 94.1%
Q2 - 8:09	ATL	MISS Mottola 15' Jump Shot	23 5.7%	36 94.3%
Q2 - 8:33	MEM	Fontaine Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)	23 5.3%	36 94.7%
Q2 - 8:33	MEM	Fontaine Driving Layup (2 PTS)	22 4.8%	36 95.2%
Q2 - 8:55	ATL	Abdur-Rahim Dunk (14 PTS) (Vaughn 1 AST)	20 4.4%	36 95.6%
Q2 - 8:59	ATL	Vaughn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	20 4.8%	34 95.2%
Q2 - 9:00	MEM	MISS Buford 6' Jump Shot	20 5.0%	34 95.0%
Q2 - 9:25	MEM	Fontaine REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	20 5.5%	34 94.5%
Q2 - 9:27	ATL	MISS Henderson 10' Jump Shot	20 5.3%	34 94.7%
Q2 - 9:39	ATL	Abdur-Rahim REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	20 4.9%	34 95.1%
Q2 - 9:40	MEM	MISS Massenburg 6' Jump Shot	20 5.1%	34 94.9%
Q2 - 9:48	MEM	Swift REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	20 5.5%	34 94.5%
Q2 - 9:50	ATL	Abdur-Rahim REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	20 4.9%	34 95.1%
Q2 - 9:50	ATL	MISS Abdur-Rahim Tip Shot	20 5.3%	34 94.7%
Q2 - 9:51	ATL	MISS Newble 16' Jump Shot	20 5.3%	34 94.7%
Q2 - 10:15	MEM	Newble STEAL (1 STL)	20 5.0%	34 95.0%
Q2 - 10:29	ATL	Terry 13' Jump Shot (6 PTS)	20 5.6%	34 94.4%
Q2 - 10:52	MEM	Swift REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	20 6.1%	32 93.9%
Q2 - 10:52	MEM	Swift Follow Up Dunk (2 PTS)	20 6.1%	32 93.9%
Q2 - 10:54	MEM	MISS Massenburg Layup	18 5.2%	32 94.8%
Q2 - 10:59	MEM	Solomon REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	18 5.6%	32 94.4%
Q2 - 11:02	ATL	MISS Abdur-Rahim 5' Jump Shot	18 5.4%	32 94.6%
Q2 - 11:21	MEM	Kukoc STEAL (1 STL)	18 5.1%	32 94.9%
Q2 - 11:42	ATL	Henderson Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)	18 5.6%	32 94.4%
Q2 - 11:42	ATL	Henderson Reverse Layup (2 PTS)	18 6.1%	31 93.9%
Q1 - 0:00.0	MEM		18 6.7%	29 93.3%
Q1 - 0:00.0	ATL	Abdur-Rahim Dunk (12 PTS) (Terry 4 AST)	18 7.3%	29 92.7%
Q1 - 0:03.0	MEM	Terry STEAL (2 STL)	18 8.2%	27 91.8%
Q1 - 0:15.0	ATL	Newble Layup (4 PTS) (Abdur-Rahim 1 AST)	18 8.8%	27 91.2%
Q1 - 0:36.0	MEM	Terry STEAL (1 STL)	18 9.7%	25 90.3%
Q1 - 0:51.0	MEM	Buford REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	18 10.4%	25 89.6%
Q1 - 0:53.0	ATL	MISS Terry 25' 3PT Jump Shot	18 10.2%	25 89.8%
Q1 - 1:01	ATL	Henderson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	18 9.8%	25 90.2%
Q1 - 1:03	MEM	MISS Battier 9' Jump Shot	18 10.0%	25 90.0%
Q1 - 1:17	MEM	Massenburg REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	18 10.4%	25 89.6%
Q1 - 1:19	ATL	MISS Johnson 25' 3PT Jump Shot	18 10.2%	25 89.8%
Q1 - 1:39	MEM	Battier Free Throw 1 of 1 (7 PTS)	18 9.8%	25 90.2%
Q1 - 1:39	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	17 9.0%	25 91.0%
Q1 - 1:39	MEM	Battier Layup (6 PTS)	17 9.0%	25 91.0%
Q1 - 1:41	MEM	MISS Swift 8' Jump Shot	15 7.7%	25 92.3%
Q1 - 1:50	MEM	Solomon REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	15 8.1%	25 91.9%
Q1 - 1:52	ATL	MISS Terry 16' Jump Shot	15 7.9%	25 92.1%
Q1 - 2:02	MEM	Solomon Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T4)	15 7.5%	25 92.5%
Q1 - 2:21	ATL	Terry 14' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	15 8.2%	25 91.8%
Q1 - 2:25	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	15 8.9%	23 91.1%
Q1 - 2:27	MEM	MISS Battier 16' Jump Shot	15 9.2%	23 90.8%
Q1 - 2:36	MEM	Massenburg REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	15 9.7%	23 90.3%
Q1 - 2:38	ATL	MISS Terry 3PT Jump Shot	15 9.4%	23 90.6%
Q1 - 2:55	MEM	Massenburg Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)	15 8.9%	23 91.1%
Q1 - 2:55	MEM	MISS Massenburg Free Throw 1 of 2	14 8.8%	23 91.2%
Q1 - 3:11	ATL	Abdur-Rahim Driving Layup (10 PTS)	14 9.1%	23 90.9%
Q1 - 3:32	ATL	HAWKS Rebound	14 9.7%	21 90.3%
Q1 - 3:35	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	14 10.7%	21 89.3%
Q1 - 3:35	MEM	MISS Gasol Tip Shot	14 10.0%	21 90.0%
Q1 - 3:36	MEM	MISS Buford Layup	14 10.0%	21 90.0%
Q1 - 3:48	ATL	Abdur-Rahim Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)	14 10.7%	21 89.3%
Q1 - 3:48	ATL	Abdur-Rahim Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)	14 10.8%	20 89.2%
Q1 - 3:58	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	14 11.5%	19 88.5%
Q1 - 3:58	MEM	Battier Tip Shot (4 PTS)	14 11.5%	19 88.5%
Q1 - 3:59	MEM	MISS Battier Layup	12 10.0%	19 90.0%
Q1 - 4:21	ATL	Terry 15' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	12 10.6%	19 89.4%
Q1 - 4:36	MEM	Gasol 3' Turnaround Jump Shot (4 PTS)	12 11.3%	17 88.7%
Q1 - 4:49	MEM	Long REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	10 10.6%	17 89.4%
Q1 - 4:51	ATL	MISS Abdur-Rahim 14' Jump Shot	10 10.3%	17 89.7%
Q1 - 5:09	MEM	Wright Foul Turnover (P1.T3)	10 9.7%	17 90.3%
Q1 - 5:22	ATL	Abdur-Rahim Layup (6 PTS) (Mohammed 1 AST)	10 10.5%	17 89.5%
Q1 - 5:40	MEM	Long 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Battier 1 AST)	10 11.3%	15 88.7%
Q1 - 5:56	ATL	Johnson Foul Turnover (P2.T2)	8 10.5%	15 89.5%
Q1 - 6:17	MEM	Battier 15' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Long 1 AST)	8 9.8%	15 90.2%
Q1 - 6:41	ATL	Abdur-Rahim 12' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	6 9.2%	15 90.8%
Q1 - 7:00	MEM	Gasol 3 Second Violation Turnover (P1.T2)	6 9.8%	13 90.2%
Q1 - 7:13	ATL	Johnson 26' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Newble 1 AST)	6 10.7%	13 89.3%
Q1 - 7:30	ATL	Mohammed REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	6 12.2%	10 87.8%
Q1 - 7:30	MEM	Mohammed BLOCK (2 BLK)	6 12.5%	10 87.5%
Q1 - 7:48	ATL	Mohammed Layup (4 PTS) (Terry 3 AST)	6 13.1%	10 86.9%
Q1 - 7:54	MEM	Johnson STEAL (1 STL)	6 13.9%	8 86.1%
Q1 - 8:22	ATL	Mohammed 14' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Johnson 1 AST)	6 14.8%	8 85.2%
Q1 - 8:29	ATL	Newble REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	6 15.6%	6 84.4%
Q1 - 8:32	MEM	Mohammed BLOCK (1 BLK)	6 16.0%	6 84.0%
Q1 - 8:51	ATL	Abdur-Rahim 16' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Terry 2 AST)	6 16.8%	6 83.2%
Q1 - 9:13	MEM	Wright 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Gill 1 AST)	6 17.5%	4 82.5%
Q1 - 9:19	MEM	Long REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4 16.7%	4 83.3%
Q1 - 9:21	ATL	MISS Abdur-Rahim 6' Jump Shot	4 16.3%	4 83.7%
Q1 - 9:36	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	4 15.4%	4 84.6%
Q1 - 9:36	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	3 15.2%	4 84.8%
Q1 - 9:53	ATL	Johnson 15' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	2 14.7%	4 85.3%
Q1 - 10:16	MEM	Gill Driving Layup (2 PTS)	2 15.4%	2 84.6%
Q1 - 10:42	ATL	Newble Layup (2 PTS) (Terry 1 AST)	0 14.6%	2 85.4%
Q1 - 10:46	ATL	Abdur-Rahim REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 15.4%	0 84.6%
Q1 - 10:48	MEM	MISS Wright 12' Jump Shot	0 15.8%	0 84.2%
Q1 - 11:12	ATL	Johnson Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)	0 16.4%	0 83.6%
Q1 - 11:25	ATL	Mohammed REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 15.5%	0 84.5%
Q1 - 11:26	MEM	MISS Wright 10' Jump Shot	0 15.7%	0 84.3%
Q1 - 11:40	MEM	Gill REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	0 16.4%	0 83.6%
Q1 - 11:41	MEM	MISS Gasol 11' Jump Shot	0 15.7%	0 84.3%
Q1 - 12:00	ATL	Jump Ball Mohammed vs. Gasol: Tip to Wright	0 16.4%	0 83.6%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MEM

0.86 43.2%

ATL

1.16 57.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MEM

54%

ATL

67%

Midrange

MEM

34%

ATL

47%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MEM

3.0

33%

50%

ATL

10.5

50%

75%

Free Throws

MEM

58%

ATL

77%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Grizzlies

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
S. Battier	20	59%	10.0 / 17
P. Gasol	12	55%	6.0 / 11
E. Gill	11	39%	5.5 / 14
S. Swift	8	67%	4.0 / 6
I. Fontaine	8	67%	4.0 / 6
L. Wright	6	30%	3.0 / 10
R. Buford	6	30%	3.0 / 10
G. Long	4	29%	2.0 / 7
T. Massenburg	1	17%	0.5 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Hawks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Kukoc	24	100%	12.0 / 12
S. Abdur-Rahim	23	61%	11.5 / 19
J. Terry	11	61%	5.5 / 9
I. Newble	10	71%	5.0 / 7
D. Johnson	7	35%	3.5 / 10
A. Henderson	7	50%	3.5 / 7
N. Mohammed	4	50%	2.0 / 4
C. Bowdler	4	40%	2.0 / 5
M. Strickland	3	75%	1.5 / 2
J. Vaughn	2	100%	1.0 / 1
H. Mottola	0	-	0.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

MEM

+12

-15

ATL

-16

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MEM

0.86 43.2%

ATL

1.16 57.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	95.6 100.1	MEM 86.4 +21.6 ATL 108.0
Pace	93.7 93.6	MEM 96.1 +14.9 ATL 81.2
Avg. Poss. Time	15.4 15.2	MEM 15.0 +2.8 ATL 17.7
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	46.2% 47.1%	MEM 42.6% ATL 59.9% +17.3%
TO %	16.7% 15.6%	MEM 17.2% +0.9% ATL 18.1%
ORB %	27.8% 27.5%	MEM 23.7% +3.7% ATL 20.0%
FTrt	28.8 29.4	MEM 45.6 +27.3 ATL 18.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	62.6% 57.0%	MEM 46.4% ATL 66.7% +20.3%
STL %	8.4% 8.5%	MEM 8.0% ATL 9.1% +1.1%
BLK %	8.5% 6.5%	MEM 7.0% +0.5% ATL 6.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	47.7% 49.2%	MEM 43.2% ATL 57.9% +14.7%
Rim FG%	57.1% 55.2%	MEM 54.2% ATL 66.7% +12.5%
Mid FG%	38.6% 37.6%	MEM 34.2% ATL 46.7% +12.5%
3P %	30.7% 35.4%	MEM 33.3% ATL 50.0% +16.7%
FT %	70.8% 76.5%	MEM 58.1% ATL 76.9% +18.8%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	34.4% 37.9%	MEM 35.3% ATL 38.0% +2.7%
Mid Att. %	48.9% 44.1%	MEM 55.9% ATL 42.3% +13.6%
3P Att. %	16.8% 18.1%	MEM 8.8% ATL 19.7% +10.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.02 and 2.02.

Game Totals	MEM	ATL
Possessions	88	88
Possession Minutes	22.0	26.0
Points	76	95
Rebounds	33	35
Assists	13	26
Steals	7	8
Blocks	4	4
Turnovers (Team)	15 (2)	16 (1)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	9 (3)	6 (0)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	24 (3)	29 (5)
Field Goals	28-68	39-71
At-the-Rim FG	13-24	18-27
Midrange FG	13-38	14-30
2-Point FG	26-62	32-57
3-Point FG	2-6	7-14
Free Throws	18-31	10-13
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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29 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Shane Battier G · 6'8" 220 · 23	41.9	20	59%	3	2	2	0	3	1	3	0	3-6	50%	7-11	64%	1-3	33%
Pau Gasol F · 7'0" 250 · 22	40.5	12	55%	3	2	2	1	3	3	1	2	4-4	100%	4-9	44%	0-0	-
Eddie Gill G · 6'0" 190 · 24	35.4	11	39%	3	3	1	0	0	0	3	0	5-6	83%	3-9	33%	0-2	0%
Lorenzen Wright C · 6'11" 255 · 26	24.4	6	30%	7	1	1	0	2	1	1	6	0-2	0%	3-9	33%	0-0	-
Grant Long F · 6'9" 240 · 36	20.9	4	29%	5	3	0	1	0	0	0	5	0-4	0%	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Stromile Swift F-C · 6'10" 220 · 22	22.6	8	67%	3	1	1	2	0	4	1	2	2-2	100%	3-5	60%	0-0	-
Rodney Buford F-G · 6'5" 195 · 24	20.5	6	30%	3	0	0	0	2	4	0	3	0-0	-	3-10	30%	0-0	-
Ike Fontaine · 6'4" 210 · 27	19.9	8	67%	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	3-5	60%	1-2	50%	1-1	100%
Tony Massenburg F-C · 6'9" 250 · 35	8.4	1	17%	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	1-2	50%	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Will Solomon G · 6'1" 185 · 24	5.4	0	0%	2	0	0	0	4	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jason Williams G · 6'1" 180 · 26
Brevin Knight G · 5'10" 166 · 26
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	76	43%	33	13	7	4	15	0	9	24	18-31	58%	26-62	42%	2-6	33%

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29 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Shane Battier G · 6'8" 220 · 23	41.9	20	59%	3	2	2	0	3	1	3	0	3-6	50%	7-11	64%	1-3	33%
Pau Gasol F · 7'0" 250 · 22	40.5	12	55%	3	2	2	1	3	3	1	2	4-4	100%	4-9	44%	0-0	-
Eddie Gill G · 6'0" 190 · 24	35.4	11	39%	3	3	1	0	0	0	3	0	5-6	83%	3-9	33%	0-2	0%
Lorenzen Wright C · 6'11" 255 · 26	24.4	6	30%	7	1	1	0	2	1	1	6	0-2	0%	3-9	33%	0-0	-
Grant Long F · 6'9" 240 · 36	20.9	4	29%	5	3	0	1	0	0	0	5	0-4	0%	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Stromile Swift F-C · 6'10" 220 · 22	22.6	8	67%	3	1	1	2	0	4	1	2	2-2	100%	3-5	60%	0-0	-
Rodney Buford F-G · 6'5" 195 · 24	20.5	6	30%	3	0	0	0	2	4	0	3	0-0	-	3-10	30%	0-0	-
Ike Fontaine · 6'4" 210 · 27	19.9	8	67%	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	3-5	60%	1-2	50%	1-1	100%
Tony Massenburg F-C · 6'9" 250 · 35	8.4	1	17%	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	1-2	50%	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Will Solomon G · 6'1" 185 · 24	5.4	0	0%	2	0	0	0	4	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jason Williams G · 6'1" 180 · 26
Brevin Knight G · 5'10" 166 · 26
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	76	43%	33	13	7	4	15	0	9	24	18-31	58%	26-62	42%	2-6	33%

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24 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Ira Newble G · 6'7" 220 · 27	34.7	10	71%	1	3	1	0	2	3	0	1	0-0	-	5-7	71%	0-0	-
Shareef Abdur-Rahim F · 6'9" 245 · 25	32.8	23	61%	7	5	1	1	2	3	2	5	3-6	50%	10-15	67%	0-1	0%
DerMarr Johnson F · 6'9" 210 · 22	32.0	7	35%	2	1	1	1	2	3	1	1	0-0	-	2-7	29%	1-3	33%
Nazr Mohammed C · 6'10" 250 · 24	27.1	4	50%	8	1	0	2	2	5	1	7	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Jason Terry G · 6'2" 185 · 24	26.6	11	61%	0	5	3	0	1	4	0	0	0-0	-	4-5	80%	1-4	25%
Toni Kukoc F · 6'11" 235 · 33	25.8	24	100%	4	4	1	0	1	3	0	4	6-6	100%	3-4	75%	4-4	100%
Jacque Vaughn G · 6'1" 190 · 27	21.4	2	100%	3	5	1	0	1	1	0	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Hanno Mottola C-F · 6'11" 247 · 25	16.3	0	0%	2	2	0	0	3	4	0	2	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Alan Henderson F-C · 6'9" 240 · 29	14.5	7	50%	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	1-1	100%	3-6	50%	0-0	-
Cal Bowdler F · 6'10" 253 · 25	5.3	4	40%	6	0	0	0	1	0	2	4	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Mark Strickland F · 6'10" 220 · 32	3.4	3	75%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Dion Glover F-G · 6'5" 225 · 23
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	95	58%	35	26	8	4	16	0	6	29	10-13	77%	32-57	56%	7-14	50%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE