Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, February 24, 2002

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	17	Wizards	42%	88	80
	21	Heat	58%	91	92

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
WAS	90.9	88	87.0
MIA	104.5	88	89.1

Scoring Opportunities

WAS

+13

-15

MIA

+10

-14

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

0.92 46.0%

MIA

1.08 54.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	WAS	MIA
Q4 - 0:00.0	MIA		80 0%	92 100%
Q4 - 0:04.0	MIA	Jones Dunk (15 PTS)	80 0%	92 100%
Q4 - 0:05.0	MIA	Jones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	80 0%	90 100%
Q4 - 0:06.0	MIA	MISS Jackson 3PT Jump Shot	80 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 0:28.0	MIA	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	80 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 0:30.0	WAS	Mourning BLOCK (3 BLK)	80 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 0:39.0	MIA	Strickland Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)	80 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 0:39.0	MIA	Strickland Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)	80 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 0:59.0	WAS	Lue 22' Jump Shot (21 PTS) (Nesby 2 AST)	80 0.4%	88 99.6%
Q4 - 1:07	WAS	Thomas REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	78 0.3%	88 99.7%
Q4 - 1:09	MIA	MISS Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot	78 0.2%	88 99.8%
Q4 - 1:33	MIA	Mourning REBOUND (Off:2 Def:10)	78 0.4%	88 99.6%
Q4 - 1:35	WAS	MISS Hamilton 24' 3PT Jump Shot	78 0.4%	88 99.6%
Q4 - 1:38	WAS	Nesby REBOUND (Off:4 Def:2)	78 0.7%	88 99.3%
Q4 - 1:39	WAS	MISS Thomas Free Throw 2 of 2	78 0.4%	88 99.6%
Q4 - 1:39	WAS	MISS Thomas Free Throw 1 of 2	78 0.6%	88 99.4%
Q4 - 1:39	WAS	Thomas REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	78 0.7%	88 99.3%
Q4 - 1:41	WAS	MISS Laettner 18' Jump Shot	78 0.5%	88 99.5%
Q4 - 1:53	MIA	Mourning 5' Hook Shot (11 PTS)	78 0.8%	88 99.2%
Q4 - 2:16	MIA	Ellis REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)	78 1.3%	86 98.7%
Q4 - 2:18	WAS	MISS Lue 25' 3PT Jump Shot	78 1.6%	86 98.4%
Q4 - 2:45	MIA	Mourning 8' Hook Shot (9 PTS) (Strickland 11 AST)	78 2.7%	86 97.3%
Q4 - 3:06	MIA	Strickland REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	78 4.3%	84 95.7%
Q4 - 3:08	WAS	MISS Nesby 20' Jump Shot	78 5.1%	84 94.9%
Q4 - 3:15	WAS	Thomas REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	78 7.6%	84 92.4%
Q4 - 3:17	MIA	MISS Jones Layup	78 6.3%	84 93.7%
Q4 - 3:34	MIA	Mourning REBOUND (Off:2 Def:9)	78 6.9%	84 93.1%
Q4 - 3:36	WAS	MISS Lue 18' Jump Shot	78 7.6%	84 92.4%
Q4 - 4:00	MIA	Ellis Layup (9 PTS)	78 9.2%	84 90.8%
Q4 - 4:02	MIA	Ellis REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)	78 12.6%	82 87.4%
Q4 - 4:05	MIA	MISS Strickland 19' Jump Shot	78 15.9%	82 84.1%
Q4 - 4:27	WAS	Hamilton 8' Jump Shot (8 PTS)	78 12.4%	82 87.6%
Q4 - 4:47	MIA	Jackson Driving Layup (10 PTS)	76 9.0%	82 91.0%
Q4 - 4:59	MIA	Jackson REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	76 12.3%	80 87.7%
Q4 - 5:01	WAS	MISS Laettner Driving Layup	76 16.0%	80 84.0%
Q4 - 5:19	MIA	Jones Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS)	76 19.4%	80 80.6%
Q4 - 5:19	MIA	Jones Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)	76 20.1%	79 79.9%
Q4 - 5:20	MIA	Ellis REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	76 24.9%	78 75.1%
Q4 - 5:23	WAS	Mourning BLOCK (2 BLK)	76 26.9%	78 73.1%
Q4 - 5:30	WAS	Thomas REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	76 31.9%	78 68.1%
Q4 - 5:32	MIA	MISS Mourning 12' Jump Shot	76 29.7%	78 70.3%
Q4 - 5:54	WAS	Lue 14' Jump Shot (19 PTS)	76 24.8%	78 75.2%
Q4 - 6:11	WAS	Hamilton REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	74 21.1%	78 78.9%
Q4 - 6:14	MIA	MISS Jones 18' Jump Shot	74 19.4%	78 80.6%
Q4 - 6:19	WAS	Jones STEAL (3 STL)	74 15.9%	78 84.1%
Q4 - 6:34	MIA	Jackson 19' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Carter 1 AST)	74 21.0%	78 79.0%
Q4 - 6:50	MIA	Mourning REBOUND (Off:2 Def:8)	74 25.7%	76 74.3%
Q4 - 6:52	MIA	MISS Jackson Layup	74 30.5%	76 69.5%
Q4 - 7:05	MIA	Mourning REBOUND (Off:1 Def:8)	74 27.2%	76 72.8%
Q4 - 7:07	WAS	MISS Jordan 16' Jump Shot	74 29.1%	76 70.9%
Q4 - 7:25	WAS	Nesby REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)	74 33.7%	76 66.3%
Q4 - 7:28	MIA	MISS Carter 20' Jump Shot	74 31.6%	76 68.4%
Q4 - 7:37	MIA	Carter REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	74 27.1%	76 72.9%
Q4 - 7:39	WAS	MISS Laettner 19' Jump Shot	74 29.0%	76 71.0%
Q4 - 8:00	MIA	Jackson Driving Layup (6 PTS)	74 33.7%	76 66.3%
Q4 - 8:20	WAS	Jordan Foul Turnover (P6.T13)	74 39.8%	74 60.2%
Q4 - 8:28	WAS	MISS Jordan Free Throw Technical	74 46.2%	74 53.8%
Q4 - 8:49	MIA	Mourning 11' Jump Shot (7 PTS)	74 46.2%	74 53.8%
Q4 - 9:16	WAS	Lue 18' Jump Shot (17 PTS)	74 51.6%	72 48.4%
Q4 - 9:27	MIA	Ellis Free Throw 1 of 1 (7 PTS)	72 45.9%	72 54.1%
Q4 - 9:27	MIA	Ellis 5' Hook Shot (6 PTS)	72 51.9%	71 48.1%
Q4 - 9:27	MIA	Jackson REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	72 57.6%	69 42.4%
Q4 - 9:31	MIA	MISS Mourning 6' Hook Shot	72 61.8%	69 38.2%
Q4 - 9:45	MIA	Mourning REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	72 57.6%	69 42.4%
Q4 - 9:47	WAS	Gill BLOCK (1 BLK)	72 59.5%	69 40.5%
Q4 - 9:59	MIA	Ellis 3 Second Violation Turnover (P1.T14)	72 63.7%	69 36.3%
Q4 - 10:09	MIA	Jackson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	72 56.5%	69 43.5%
Q4 - 10:11	WAS	MISS Nesby 20' Jump Shot	72 58.3%	69 41.7%
Q4 - 10:28	MIA	Jackson Layup (4 PTS) (Ellis 1 AST)	72 62.4%	69 37.6%
Q4 - 10:44	WAS	Lue 24' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Thomas 1 AST)	72 67.2%	67 32.8%
Q4 - 11:04	MIA	Grant 4' Jump Shot (14 PTS)	69 56.0%	67 44.0%
Q4 - 11:25	WAS	Nesby Alley Oop Dunk (6 PTS) (Lue 3 AST)	69 61.1%	65 38.9%
Q4 - 11:43	WAS	Thomas REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	67 56.1%	65 43.9%
Q4 - 11:45	MIA	MISS Gill 18' Jump Shot	67 54.4%	65 45.6%
Q3 - 0:00.0	WAS		67 50.4%	65 49.6%
Q3 - 0:00.0	WAS	Wizards Rebound	67 56.1%	65 43.9%
Q3 - 0:00.0	WAS	MISS Hamilton 41' 3PT Jump Shot	67 52.2%	65 47.8%
Q3 - 0:00.0	WAS	Hamilton REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	67 56.1%	65 43.9%
Q3 - 0:03.0	MIA	MISS Carter Driving Layup	67 53.6%	65 46.4%
Q3 - 0:10.0	WAS	Lue Driving Layup (12 PTS)	67 50.1%	65 49.9%
Q3 - 0:30.0	WAS	Nesby REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)	65 45.0%	65 55.0%
Q3 - 0:32.0	WAS	MISS Hamilton 15' Jump Shot	65 41.5%	65 58.5%
Q3 - 0:45.0	WAS	Nesby REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	65 45.0%	65 55.0%
Q3 - 0:47.0	WAS	MISS Lue 24' 3PT Jump Shot	65 41.5%	65 58.5%
Q3 - 1:03	MIA	Gill Layup (12 PTS) (Strickland 10 AST)	65 44.8%	65 55.2%
Q3 - 1:07	WAS	Jones STEAL (2 STL)	65 49.5%	63 50.5%
Q3 - 1:30	MIA	Gill 14' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Grant 2 AST)	65 54.5%	63 45.5%
Q3 - 1:54	WAS	Laettner Layup (15 PTS) (Lue 2 AST)	65 59.2%	61 40.8%
Q3 - 2:10	WAS	Thomas REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	63 53.5%	61 46.5%
Q3 - 2:12	WAS	MISS Hamilton Driving Layup	63 50.0%	61 50.0%
Q3 - 2:27	MIA	Jones 18' Jump Shot (11 PTS)	63 53.5%	61 46.5%
Q3 - 2:42	MIA	Ellis REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	63 57.8%	59 42.2%
Q3 - 2:44	WAS	MISS Laettner 19' Jump Shot	63 59.3%	59 40.7%
Q3 - 3:09	MIA	Strickland Driving Layup (14 PTS)	63 61.9%	59 38.1%
Q3 - 3:31	WAS	Hamilton 14' Jump Shot (6 PTS)	63 65.8%	57 34.2%
Q3 - 3:48	MIA	Grant Dunk (12 PTS) (Strickland 9 AST)	61 61.9%	57 38.1%
Q3 - 4:04	MIA	Strickland REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	61 64.4%	55 35.6%
Q3 - 4:06	WAS	MISS Lue 25' 3PT Jump Shot	61 65.8%	55 34.2%
Q3 - 4:30	WAS	Jordan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	61 68.9%	55 31.1%
Q3 - 4:32	MIA	MISS Grant 16' Jump Shot	61 67.6%	55 32.4%
Q3 - 4:41	MIA	Strickland REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	61 64.5%	55 35.5%
Q3 - 4:43	WAS	MISS Laettner 20' Jump Shot	61 65.9%	55 34.1%
Q3 - 4:55	MIA	Strickland Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)	61 68.9%	55 31.1%
Q3 - 4:55	MIA	Strickland Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)	61 69.5%	54 30.5%
Q3 - 5:01	WAS	Mourning STEAL (1 STL)	61 71.1%	53 28.9%
Q3 - 5:18	WAS	Lue REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	61 74.6%	53 25.4%
Q3 - 5:20	MIA	MISS Gill Layup	61 73.6%	53 26.4%
Q3 - 5:24	WAS	Strickland STEAL (2 STL)	61 71.1%	53 28.9%
Q3 - 5:40	MIA	Gill Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T13)	61 74.7%	53 25.3%
Q3 - 5:49	MIA	Grant REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	61 71.1%	53 28.9%
Q3 - 5:51	WAS	Jones BLOCK (2 BLK)	61 72.2%	53 27.8%
Q3 - 6:05	WAS	Thomas REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	61 73.3%	53 26.7%
Q3 - 6:06	MIA	MISS Grant Free Throw 2 of 2	61 72.9%	53 27.1%
Q3 - 6:06	MIA	MISS Grant Free Throw 1 of 2	61 70.5%	53 29.5%
Q3 - 6:26	WAS	Laettner 24' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Jordan 6 AST)	61 69.9%	53 30.1%
Q3 - 6:57	MIA	Grant 15' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Strickland 8 AST)	58 63.1%	53 36.9%
Q3 - 7:19	WAS	Hamilton 16' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Jordan 5 AST)	58 65.2%	51 34.8%
Q3 - 7:26	WAS	Laettner REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	56 62.2%	51 37.8%
Q3 - 7:28	MIA	MISS Strickland 15' Jump Shot	56 60.9%	51 39.1%
Q3 - 7:46	WAS	Jordan 25' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Whitney 3 AST)	56 57.9%	51 42.1%
Q3 - 7:55	MIA	Jones Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T12)	53 50.8%	51 49.2%
Q3 - 8:04	MIA	Mourning REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	53 46.3%	51 53.7%
Q3 - 8:06	WAS	MISS Hamilton Running Layup	53 47.6%	51 52.4%
Q3 - 8:12	MIA	Jones Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T11)	53 50.6%	51 49.4%
Q3 - 8:32	WAS	Hamilton 5' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Jordan 4 AST)	53 46.3%	51 53.7%
Q3 - 8:46	WAS	Wizards Rebound	51 43.1%	51 56.9%
Q3 - 8:47	MIA	MISS Mourning Dunk	51 41.8%	51 58.2%
Q3 - 9:01	WAS	White Traveling Turnover (P1.T9)	51 38.8%	51 61.2%
Q3 - 9:17	MIA	Grant Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T10)	51 42.4%	51 57.6%
Q3 - 9:30	MIA	Mourning REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	51 38.8%	51 61.2%
Q3 - 9:32	WAS	MISS Jordan 17' Jump Shot	51 39.9%	51 60.1%
Q3 - 9:43	WAS	White REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	51 42.5%	51 57.5%
Q3 - 9:45	MIA	MISS Gill 19' Jump Shot	51 41.3%	51 58.7%
Q3 - 10:01	MIA	Mourning REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	51 38.5%	51 61.5%
Q3 - 10:03	WAS	MISS Jordan 15' Jump Shot	51 39.7%	51 60.3%
Q3 - 10:13	WAS	White REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	51 42.4%	51 57.6%
Q3 - 10:16	WAS	MISS White 5' Hook Shot	51 39.7%	51 60.3%
Q3 - 10:36	MIA	Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Strickland 7 AST)	51 42.4%	51 57.6%
Q3 - 10:42	WAS	Grant STEAL (1 STL)	51 49.0%	48 51.0%
Q3 - 10:56	WAS	White REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	51 53.0%	48 47.0%
Q3 - 10:58	MIA	MISS Jones Driving Layup	51 51.8%	48 48.2%
Q3 - 11:13	MIA	Grant REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	51 48.8%	48 51.2%
Q3 - 11:15	WAS	MISS Whitney 20' Jump Shot	51 49.9%	48 50.1%
Q3 - 11:28	MIA	Grant 18' Jump Shot (8 PTS)	51 52.4%	48 47.6%
Q3 - 11:44	MIA	Strickland REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	51 55.7%	46 44.3%
Q3 - 11:46	WAS	MISS Laettner 19' Jump Shot	51 56.8%	46 43.2%
Q2 - 0:00.0	WAS		51 59.3%	46 40.7%
Q2 - 0:00.0	WAS	Jordan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	51 59.3%	46 40.7%
Q2 - 0:01.0	MIA	MISS Ellis 28' 3PT Jump Shot	51 57.2%	46 42.8%
Q2 - 0:08.0	WAS	Lue Driving Layup (10 PTS)	51 55.7%	46 44.3%
Q2 - 0:21.0	MIA	Ellis 6' Hook Shot (4 PTS)	49 51.4%	46 48.6%
Q2 - 0:21.0	MIA	Ellis REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	49 55.7%	44 44.3%
Q2 - 0:25.0	MIA	MISS Mourning 18' Jump Shot	49 57.3%	44 42.7%
Q2 - 0:43.0	MIA	Gill REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	49 55.7%	44 44.3%
Q2 - 0:45.0	WAS	MISS Whitney 21' Jump Shot	49 56.4%	44 43.6%
Q2 - 0:59.0	WAS	Laettner REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	49 58.1%	44 41.9%
Q2 - 1:01	WAS	MISS Davis 25' 3PT Jump Shot	49 56.1%	44 43.9%
Q2 - 1:07	WAS	Nesby REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	49 57.2%	44 42.8%
Q2 - 1:09	MIA	MISS Strickland 12' Jump Shot	49 56.7%	44 43.3%
Q2 - 1:26	WAS	Davis 19' Jump Shot (5 PTS)	49 55.6%	44 44.4%
Q2 - 1:42	MIA	Strickland 7' Running Jump Shot (10 PTS)	47 50.8%	44 49.2%
Q2 - 1:55	WAS	Whitney Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)	47 55.6%	42 44.4%
Q2 - 1:55	WAS	Whitney Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)	46 55.3%	42 44.7%
Q2 - 2:06	MIA	Jackson 16' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	45 51.1%	42 48.9%
Q2 - 2:19	MIA	Grant REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	45 54.4%	40 45.6%
Q2 - 2:21	WAS	MISS Jordan 16' Jump Shot	45 55.3%	40 44.7%
Q2 - 2:48	MIA	Jones Reverse Layup (6 PTS) (Grant 1 AST)	45 57.2%	40 42.8%
Q2 - 3:05	WAS	Whitney 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Jordan 3 AST)	45 59.2%	38 40.8%
Q2 - 3:18	WAS	Jordan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	42 53.7%	38 46.3%
Q2 - 3:20	MIA	MISS Strickland 13' Running Jump Shot	42 52.7%	38 47.3%
Q2 - 3:30	WAS	Davis 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Whitney 2 AST)	42 50.4%	38 49.6%
Q2 - 3:39	WAS	Thomas REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	39 44.8%	38 55.2%
Q2 - 3:41	MIA	MISS Jones 15' Jump Shot	39 43.7%	38 56.3%
Q2 - 3:53	WAS	Hamilton Foul Turnover (P2.T7)	39 41.5%	38 58.5%
Q2 - 4:08	MIA	Strickland 8' Running Jump Shot (8 PTS)	39 44.2%	38 55.8%
Q2 - 4:21	WAS	Jones STEAL (1 STL)	39 47.1%	36 52.9%
Q2 - 4:25	MIA	Strickland Lost Ball Turnover (P4.T9)	39 50.0%	36 50.0%
Q2 - 4:42	WAS	Jordan Foul Turnover (P3.T5)	39 47.1%	36 52.9%
Q2 - 4:51	MIA	Strickland 18' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Jackson 2 AST)	39 50.0%	36 50.0%
Q2 - 4:57	MIA	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	39 52.9%	34 47.1%
Q2 - 4:58	WAS	Jones BLOCK (1 BLK)	39 53.8%	34 46.2%
Q2 - 5:02	WAS	Davis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	39 55.5%	34 44.5%
Q2 - 5:04	WAS	MISS Thomas 12' Jump Shot	39 53.3%	34 46.7%
Q2 - 5:16	MIA	Jones 17' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Jackson 1 AST)	39 55.5%	34 44.5%
Q2 - 5:36	WAS	Jordan Driving Layup (6 PTS)	39 58.0%	32 42.0%
Q2 - 5:47	MIA	Mourning Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	37 55.5%	32 44.5%
Q2 - 5:47	MIA	Mourning Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)	37 56.3%	31 43.7%
Q2 - 5:56	WAS	Strickland STEAL (1 STL)	37 58.0%	30 42.0%
Q2 - 6:06	WAS	Wizards Rebound	37 60.5%	30 39.5%
Q2 - 6:08	WAS	MISS Jordan 24' 3PT Jump Shot	37 58.3%	30 41.7%
Q2 - 6:12	WAS	Nesby REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	37 60.5%	30 39.5%
Q2 - 6:13	WAS	MISS Davis 17' Jump Shot	37 58.3%	30 41.7%
Q2 - 6:36	MIA	Strickland 15' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	37 60.6%	30 39.4%
Q2 - 6:51	WAS	Lue Tip Shot (8 PTS)	37 62.7%	28 37.3%
Q2 - 6:52	WAS	Lue REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	35 60.6%	28 39.4%
Q2 - 6:54	WAS	MISS Davis Layup	35 58.4%	28 41.6%
Q2 - 6:58	MIA	Strickland Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T8)	35 60.6%	28 39.4%
Q2 - 7:12	WAS	Jordan 12' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	35 56.8%	28 43.2%
Q2 - 7:24	MIA	Ellis Tip Shot (2 PTS)	33 54.4%	28 45.6%
Q2 - 7:25	MIA	Ellis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	33 56.8%	26 43.2%
Q2 - 7:28	MIA	MISS Jones Layup	33 58.8%	26 41.2%
Q2 - 7:51	WAS	MISS Thomas Free Throw 1 of 1	33 57.2%	26 42.8%
Q2 - 7:51	WAS	Thomas 4' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Jordan 2 AST)	33 56.9%	26 43.1%
Q2 - 8:05	MIA	Jones Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T7)	31 54.1%	26 45.9%
Q2 - 8:31	WAS	Thomas Dunk (2 PTS) (Nesby 1 AST)	31 51.2%	26 48.8%
Q2 - 8:52	WAS	Wizards Rebound	29 48.9%	26 51.1%
Q2 - 8:53	MIA	MISS Carter 19' Jump Shot	29 48.0%	26 52.0%
Q2 - 9:03	MIA	Jackson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	29 45.7%	26 54.3%
Q2 - 9:05	MIA	MISS Stepania 20' Jump Shot	29 47.6%	26 52.4%
Q2 - 9:27	WAS	Nesby 19' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Lue 1 AST)	29 45.7%	26 54.3%
Q2 - 9:33	MIA	Carter Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T6)	27 43.5%	26 56.5%
Q2 - 9:36	MIA	Ellis REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	27 40.7%	26 59.3%
Q2 - 9:39	WAS	MISS Davis 20' Jump Shot	27 41.6%	26 58.4%
Q2 - 9:51	WAS	Lue REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	27 43.5%	26 56.5%
Q2 - 9:53	MIA	MISS Carter 10' Jump Shot	27 42.6%	26 57.4%
Q2 - 9:56	WAS	Carter STEAL (1 STL)	27 40.7%	26 59.3%
Q2 - 10:01	MIA	Stepania 19' Jump Shot (5 PTS)	27 43.4%	26 56.6%
Q2 - 10:13	MIA	Jackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	27 45.5%	24 54.5%
Q2 - 10:15	WAS	MISS Lue 15' Jump Shot	27 46.4%	24 53.6%
Q2 - 10:39	WAS	Haywood REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	27 48.3%	24 51.7%
Q2 - 10:41	MIA	MISS Jackson 3PT Jump Shot	27 47.5%	24 52.5%
Q2 - 11:00	MIA	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	27 45.5%	24 54.5%
Q2 - 11:02	WAS	MISS Hamilton 17' Jump Shot	27 45.9%	24 54.1%
Q2 - 11:18	MIA	Stepania Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)	27 47.6%	24 52.4%
Q2 - 11:18	MIA	Stepania Layup (2 PTS)	27 50.1%	23 49.9%
Q2 - 11:18	MIA	Stepania REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	27 52.5%	21 47.5%
Q2 - 11:20	MIA	MISS Ellis 10' Hook Shot	27 54.2%	21 45.8%
Q2 - 11:36	WAS	Nesby 14' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	27 52.5%	21 47.5%
Q1 - 0:00.0	WAS		25 50.1%	21 49.9%
Q1 - 0:00.0	WAS	Hamilton REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	25 50.1%	21 49.9%
Q1 - 0:00.0	MIA	MISS Gill 21' Jump Shot	25 49.4%	21 50.6%
Q1 - 0:18.0	WAS	Lue 19' Fadeaway Jumper (6 PTS)	25 47.6%	21 52.4%
Q1 - 0:45.0	MIA	Gill Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)	23 44.7%	21 55.3%
Q1 - 0:45.0	MIA	Gill Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)	23 45.3%	20 54.7%
Q1 - 1:10	WAS	Lue 15' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	23 47.5%	19 52.5%
Q1 - 1:22	MIA	Carter Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T5)	21 44.7%	19 55.3%
Q1 - 1:40	WAS	Lue 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	21 42.9%	19 57.1%
Q1 - 1:46	MIA	Grant Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T4)	19 40.0%	19 60.0%
Q1 - 2:01	MIA	HEAT Rebound	19 38.3%	19 61.7%
Q1 - 2:02	WAS	Stepania BLOCK (1 BLK)	19 38.9%	19 61.1%
Q1 - 2:15	MIA	Grant 8' Jump Shot (6 PTS)	19 40.4%	19 59.6%
Q1 - 2:32	WAS	Jordan Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T2)	19 42.8%	17 57.2%
Q1 - 2:39	WAS	Jordan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	19 44.9%	17 55.1%
Q1 - 2:41	MIA	MISS Mourning Layup	19 44.3%	17 55.7%
Q1 - 2:42	MIA	Mourning REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	19 42.8%	17 57.2%
Q1 - 2:45	MIA	MISS Grant 20' Jump Shot	19 44.3%	17 55.7%
Q1 - 2:56	MIA	Grant REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	19 42.8%	17 57.2%
Q1 - 2:59	MIA	MISS Mourning 14' Jump Shot	19 44.3%	17 55.7%
Q1 - 3:18	WAS	Jordan 15' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Hamilton 1 AST)	19 42.2%	17 57.8%
Q1 - 3:34	WAS	Wizards Rebound	17 40.3%	17 59.7%
Q1 - 3:35	MIA	MISS Gill 3PT Jump Shot	17 39.6%	17 60.4%
Q1 - 3:53	WAS	Laettner Tip Shot (10 PTS)	17 37.9%	17 62.1%
Q1 - 3:54	WAS	Laettner REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	15 36.1%	17 63.9%
Q1 - 3:58	WAS	MISS Hamilton 15' Jump Shot	15 34.5%	17 65.5%
Q1 - 4:24	MIA	Gill 19' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Strickland 6 AST)	15 36.1%	17 63.9%
Q1 - 4:36	MIA	Mourning REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	15 37.7%	15 62.3%
Q1 - 4:38	WAS	MISS Jordan 20' Jump Shot	15 38.5%	15 61.5%
Q1 - 5:08	MIA	Grant 17' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Strickland 5 AST)	15 39.8%	15 60.2%
Q1 - 5:17	MIA	HEAT Rebound	15 41.7%	13 58.3%
Q1 - 5:18	WAS	MISS Laettner 21' Jump Shot	15 42.3%	13 57.7%
Q1 - 5:39	MIA	Mourning Dunk (3 PTS) (Strickland 4 AST)	15 44.0%	13 56.0%
Q1 - 5:52	WAS	Laettner 19' Jump Shot (8 PTS)	15 45.8%	11 54.2%
Q1 - 6:14	MIA	Grant 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Strickland 3 AST)	13 43.5%	11 56.5%
Q1 - 6:27	MIA	Gill REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	13 45.4%	9 54.6%
Q1 - 6:29	WAS	Mourning BLOCK (1 BLK)	13 46.0%	9 54.0%
Q1 - 6:43	MIA	Gill 20' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Strickland 2 AST)	13 47.5%	9 52.5%
Q1 - 7:04	WAS	Whitney Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	13 48.5%	7 51.5%
Q1 - 7:04	WAS	Whitney Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)	12 48.3%	7 51.7%
Q1 - 7:22	WAS	Jordan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	11 46.9%	7 53.1%
Q1 - 7:23	MIA	MISS Mourning Free Throw 2 of 2	11 46.6%	7 53.4%
Q1 - 7:23	MIA	Mourning Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	11 45.5%	7 54.5%
Q1 - 7:35	WAS	Laettner Running Layup (6 PTS)	11 46.7%	6 53.3%
Q1 - 7:42	MIA	Strickland Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T3)	9 45.0%	6 55.0%
Q1 - 8:06	WAS	Hamilton Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)	9 43.0%	6 57.0%
Q1 - 8:24	MIA	Gill 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Strickland 1 AST)	9 45.0%	6 55.0%
Q1 - 8:46	WAS	Whitney 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS)	9 46.7%	4 53.3%
Q1 - 8:52	MIA	Strickland Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T2)	6 43.2%	4 56.8%
Q1 - 8:59	MIA	Grant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	6 41.1%	4 58.9%
Q1 - 9:01	WAS	MISS Jordan 15' Jump Shot	6 41.5%	4 58.5%
Q1 - 9:18	MIA	Jones Driving Layup (2 PTS)	6 43.1%	4 56.9%
Q1 - 9:36	WAS	White Layup (2 PTS) (Laettner 1 AST)	6 44.5%	2 55.5%
Q1 - 9:48	WAS	Laettner REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4 43.1%	2 56.9%
Q1 - 9:50	MIA	MISS Mourning 18' Jump Shot	4 42.4%	2 57.6%
Q1 - 10:07	WAS	Laettner 18' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Jordan 1 AST)	4 40.8%	2 59.2%
Q1 - 10:26	MIA	Strickland 16' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	2 39.2%	2 60.8%
Q1 - 10:37	WAS	Laettner Layup (2 PTS) (Whitney 1 AST)	2 40.8%	0 59.2%
Q1 - 10:41	WAS	White REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	0 39.2%	0 60.8%
Q1 - 10:43	MIA	MISS Gill 18' Jump Shot	0 38.6%	0 61.4%
Q1 - 11:00	MIA	Strickland REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 37.2%	0 62.8%
Q1 - 11:02	WAS	MISS Laettner 18' Jump Shot	0 37.9%	0 62.1%
Q1 - 11:12	WAS	White REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 39.0%	0 61.0%
Q1 - 11:14	MIA	MISS Grant 3' Jump Shot	0 38.5%	0 61.5%
Q1 - 11:22	MIA	Mourning REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 37.4%	0 62.6%
Q1 - 11:24	WAS	MISS Jordan 17' Jump Shot	0 37.9%	0 62.1%
Q1 - 11:41	MIA	Grant Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)	0 39.0%	0 61.0%
Q1 - 12:00	MIA	Jump Ball Mourning vs. White: Tip to Strickland	0 37.4%	0 62.6%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

0.92 46.0%

MIA

1.08 54.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

WAS

62%

MIA

63%

Midrange

WAS

35%

MIA

51%

3PT | Effective 3PT

WAS

9.0

46%

69%

MIA

1.5

17%

25%

Free Throws

WAS

50%

MIA

81%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Wizards

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Lue	21	70%	10.5 / 15
C. Laettner	15	50%	7.5 / 15
C. Whitney	10	83%	5.0 / 6
M. Jordan	9	35%	4.5 / 13
R. Hamilton	8	27%	4.0 / 15
T. Nesby	6	60%	3.0 / 5
H. Davis	5	36%	2.5 / 7
E. Thomas	4	33%	2.0 / 6
J. White	2	50%	1.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
R. Strickland	16	67%	8.0 / 12
E. Jones	15	58%	7.5 / 13
B. Grant	14	64%	7.0 / 11
K. Gill	12	50%	6.0 / 12
A. Mourning	11	42%	5.5 / 13
J. Jackson	10	63%	5.0 / 8
L. Ellis	9	64%	4.5 / 7
V. Stepania	5	63%	2.5 / 4
A. Carter	0	-	0.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

WAS

+13

-15

MIA

+10

-14

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

0.92 46.0%

MIA

1.08 54.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	101.5 96.1	WAS 90.9 +13.6 MIA 104.5
Pace	91.3 89.7	WAS 87.0 MIA 89.1 +2.1
Avg. Poss. Time	16.2 16.7	WAS 16.6 MIA 16.2 +0.4
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	46.4% 46.3%	WAS 47.5% MIA 52.7% +5.2%
TO %	13.3% 15.5%	WAS 15.2% MIA 14.6% +0.6%
ORB %	30.8% 26.7%	WAS 25.6% MIA 28.6% +3.0%
FTrt	28.0 26.8	WAS 10.0 MIA 21.3 +11.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	58.4% 59.4%	WAS 48.6% +5.0% MIA 43.6%
STL %	7.6% 7.4%	WAS 11.4% +2.3% MIA 9.1%
BLK %	6.6% 8.7%	WAS 5.8% MIA 10.4% +4.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.08 and 2.08.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	48.3% 47.7%	WAS 46.0% MIA 54.1% +8.1%
Rim FG%	56.3% 60.6%	WAS 61.9% MIA 62.5% +0.6%
Mid FG%	39.7% 38.0%	WAS 34.8% MIA 51.1% +16.3%
3P %	38.8% 34.7%	WAS 46.2% +29.5% MIA 16.7%
FT %	76.5% 72.4%	WAS 50.0% MIA 81.3% +31.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	27.2% 28.1%	WAS 26.3% MIA 32.0% +5.8%
Mid Att. %	61.0% 57.8%	WAS 57.5% +2.5% MIA 60.0%
3P Att. %	11.8% 14.1%	WAS 16.3% +8.3% MIA 8.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.28 and 2.28.

Game Totals	WAS	MIA
Possessions	88	88
Possession Minutes	24.3	23.7
Points	80	92
Rebounds	36	42
Assists	17	17
Steals	10	8
Blocks	4	7
Turnovers (Team)	15 (0)	14 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	11 (2)	10 (0)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	25 (3)	32 (2)
Field Goals	35-80	39-75
At-the-Rim FG	13-21	15-24
Midrange FG	16-46	23-45
2-Point FG	29-67	38-69
3-Point FG	6-13	1-6
Free Throws	4-8	13-16
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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17 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Richard Hamilton G · 6'7" 193 · 24	38.4	8	27%	3	1	0	0	5	3	0	3	0-0	-	4-13	31%	0-2	0%
Christian Laettner F · 6'11" 245 · 33	37.2	15	50%	4	1	5	0	1	2	2	2	0-0	-	6-14	43%	1-1	100%
Michael Jordan F · 6'6" 216 · 39	29.6	9	35%	5	6	3	0	6	2	0	5	0-1	0%	3-11	27%	1-2	50%
Chris Whitney G · 6'0" 175 · 30	20.7	10	83%	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	4-4	100%	0-2	0%	2-2	100%
Jahidi White C · 6'9" 290 · 26	13.3	2	50%	5	0	0	1	1	3	1	4	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Tyronn Lue G · 6'0" 175 · 25	28.2	21	70%	3	3	0	0	1	4	1	2	0-0	-	9-11	82%	1-4	25%
Tyrone Nesby F-G · 6'6" 245 · 26	26.4	6	60%	6	2	0	0	1	2	4	2	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-0	-
Etan Thomas C · 6'10" 260 · 24	21.8	4	33%	8	1	0	2	0	3	2	6	0-3	0%	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Hubert Davis G · 6'5" 183 · 32	16.6	5	36%	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	1-5	20%	1-2	50%
Brendan Haywood C · 7'0" 263 · 22	7.7	0	0%	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Popeye Jones F · 6'8" 265 · 32
Courtney Alexander G · 6'5" 205 · 25
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	80	46%	36	17	10	4	15	0	11	25	4-8	50%	29-67	43%	6-13	46%

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17 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Richard Hamilton G · 6'7" 193 · 24	38.4	8	27%	3	1	0	0	5	3	0	3	0-0	-	4-13	31%	0-2	0%
Christian Laettner F · 6'11" 245 · 33	37.2	15	50%	4	1	5	0	1	2	2	2	0-0	-	6-14	43%	1-1	100%
Michael Jordan F · 6'6" 216 · 39	29.6	9	35%	5	6	3	0	6	2	0	5	0-1	0%	3-11	27%	1-2	50%
Chris Whitney G · 6'0" 175 · 30	20.7	10	83%	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	4-4	100%	0-2	0%	2-2	100%
Jahidi White C · 6'9" 290 · 26	13.3	2	50%	5	0	0	1	1	3	1	4	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Tyronn Lue G · 6'0" 175 · 25	28.2	21	70%	3	3	0	0	1	4	1	2	0-0	-	9-11	82%	1-4	25%
Tyrone Nesby F-G · 6'6" 245 · 26	26.4	6	60%	6	2	0	0	1	2	4	2	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-0	-
Etan Thomas C · 6'10" 260 · 24	21.8	4	33%	8	1	0	2	0	3	2	6	0-3	0%	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Hubert Davis G · 6'5" 183 · 32	16.6	5	36%	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	1-5	20%	1-2	50%
Brendan Haywood C · 7'0" 263 · 22	7.7	0	0%	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Popeye Jones F · 6'8" 265 · 32
Courtney Alexander G · 6'5" 205 · 25
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	80	46%	36	17	10	4	15	0	11	25	4-8	50%	29-67	43%	6-13	46%

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21 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Eddie Jones G · 6'6" 200 · 30	40.4	15	58%	4	0	3	2	3	4	1	3	2-2	100%	5-10	50%	1-2	50%
Rod Strickland G · 6'3" 185 · 36	34.4	16	67%	5	11	2	0	4	2	0	5	4-4	100%	6-10	60%	0-0	-
Alonzo Mourning C · 6'10" 261 · 32	33.5	11	42%	12	0	1	3	0	2	2	10	3-4	75%	4-11	36%	0-0	-
Kendall Gill F · 6'5" 216 · 34	31.3	12	50%	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	2-2	100%	5-10	50%	0-1	0%
Brian Grant F · 6'9" 254 · 30	28.1	14	64%	5	2	1	0	3	2	1	4	0-2	0%	7-10	70%	0-0	-
Jim Jackson F-G · 6'6" 220 · 31	27.2	10	63%	5	2	0	0	0	0	2	3	0-0	-	5-6	83%	0-2	0%
LaPhonso Ellis F · 6'8" 240 · 32	25.7	9	64%	7	1	0	0	1	0	3	4	1-1	100%	4-5	80%	0-1	0%
Anthony Carter G · 6'1" 190 · 27	13.8	0	0%	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-4	0%	0-0	-
Vladimir Stepania C · 7'1" 255 · 26	5.7	5	63%	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	1-1	100%	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Sean Marks F-C · 6'10" 250 · 27
Chris Gatling F · 6'10" · 34
Mike James G · 6'2" 188 · 27
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	92	54%	42	17	8	7	14	0	10	32	13-16	81%	38-69	55%	1-6	17%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE