FinalWin Prob.pScore
855%89
83
2545%87
88
ORTG#PossPace
SAS logo SAS
89.29394.9
MIA logo MIA
97.89088.2

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

HeatSpursQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

HeatSpursQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventSASMIA
Q4 - 0:00.0MIA83
0%
88
100%
Q4 - 0:03.0MIAHEAT Rebound83
0.1%
88
99.9%
Q4 - 0:04.0SASMISS Porter 25' 3PT Jump Shot83
0.1%
88
99.9%
Q4 - 0:07.0MIAJones Free Throw 2 of 2 (24 PTS)83
0.7%
88
99.3%
Q4 - 0:07.0MIAJones Free Throw 1 of 2 (23 PTS)83
0.8%
87
99.2%
Q4 - 0:08.0MIAJones REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)83
2.4%
86
97.6%
Q4 - 0:11.0SASMISS Porter 25' 3PT Jump Shot83
4.1%
86
95.9%
Q4 - 0:20.0SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:3 Def:9)83
10.5%
86
89.5%
Q4 - 0:22.0MIAMISS Jones 24' 3PT Jump Shot83
9.0%
86
91.0%
Q4 - 0:42.0SASDuncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (29 PTS)83
8.4%
86
91.6%
Q4 - 0:42.0SASDuncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (28 PTS)82
7.6%
86
92.4%
Q4 - 0:44.0MIAMourning 14' Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Jones 3 AST)81
5.1%
86
94.9%
Q4 - 1:19MIAStrickland REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)81
13.7%
84
86.3%
Q4 - 1:21SASMISS Duncan 8' Jump Shot81
16.5%
84
83.5%
Q4 - 1:39MIAStrickland Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T9)81
26.2%
84
73.8%
Q4 - 1:59SASPorter Lost Ball Turnover (P4.T19)81
17.7%
84
82.3%
Q4 - 2:07MIAStrickland 25' 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Grant 4 AST)81
30.2%
84
69.8%
Q4 - 2:32MIAJones REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)81
47.5%
81
52.5%
Q4 - 2:34SASMISS Porter 12' Jump Shot81
52.8%
81
47.2%
Q4 - 2:49SASMISS Daniels Free Throw Flagrant 2 of 281
64.6%
81
35.4%
Q4 - 2:49SASMISS Daniels Free Throw Flagrant 1 of 281
72.3%
81
27.7%
Q4 - 2:53SASRobinson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7)81
61.8%
81
38.2%
Q4 - 2:55MIAMISS Jones Reverse Layup81
57.7%
81
42.3%
Q4 - 3:11MIAStrickland REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)81
47.5%
81
52.5%
Q4 - 3:13SASMISS Robinson 10' Jump Shot81
52.2%
81
47.8%
Q4 - 3:24SASPorter REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)81
62.8%
81
37.2%
Q4 - 3:26MIAMISS Grant 19' Jump Shot81
58.3%
81
41.7%
Q4 - 3:40MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)81
50.2%
81
49.8%
Q4 - 3:42SASMISS Duncan 8' Jump Shot81
53.1%
81
46.9%
Q4 - 4:01SASSmith REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)81
59.7%
81
40.3%
Q4 - 4:02MIAMISS Jones 17' Jump Shot81
56.8%
81
43.2%
Q4 - 4:18MIAJackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7)81
49.8%
81
50.2%
Q4 - 4:20SASMISS Duncan 17' Jump Shot81
52.9%
81
47.1%
Q4 - 4:38SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:3 Def:8)81
59.7%
81
40.3%
Q4 - 4:38MIAMISS Jones Free Throw 2 of 281
58.4%
81
41.6%
Q4 - 4:38MIAJones Free Throw 1 of 2 (22 PTS)81
51.7%
81
48.3%
Q4 - 4:54SASJackson Foul Turnover (P4.T18)81
59.1%
80
40.9%
Q4 - 5:08MIAGrant Layup (10 PTS) (Mourning 4 AST)81
67.1%
80
32.9%
Q4 - 5:33SASRobinson 7' Jump Shot (7 PTS)81
73.9%
78
26.1%
Q4 - 5:47MIAJackson Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)79
67.2%
78
32.8%
Q4 - 5:47MIAMISS Jackson Free Throw 1 of 279
68.2%
77
31.8%
Q4 - 6:13SASDuncan Foul Turnover (P2.T17)79
65.7%
77
34.3%
Q4 - 6:29MIAGrant 20' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Strickland 7 AST)79
73.1%
77
26.9%
Q4 - 6:42SASJackson Layup (12 PTS) (Robinson 2 AST)79
77.9%
75
22.1%
Q4 - 6:52SASRobinson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)77
73.1%
75
26.9%
Q4 - 6:56MIAMISS Mourning 14' Jump Shot77
71.0%
75
29.0%
Q4 - 7:13SASDuncan 6' Running Jump Shot (27 PTS)77
65.5%
75
34.5%
Q4 - 7:29SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:3 Def:7)75
59.9%
75
40.1%
Q4 - 7:32MIAMISS Mourning 8' Hook Shot75
57.6%
75
42.4%
Q4 - 7:53SASJackson 15' Jump Shot (10 PTS)75
52.1%
75
47.9%
Q4 - 8:10SASRobinson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)73
46.4%
75
53.6%
Q4 - 8:12MIAMISS Jackson 13' Jump Shot73
44.5%
75
55.5%
Q4 - 8:28SASDuncan Foul Turnover (P1.T16)73
40.1%
75
59.9%
Q4 - 8:41MIAGatling Layup (4 PTS) (Mourning 3 AST)73
46.5%
75
53.5%
Q4 - 8:50MIAJones REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)73
52.7%
73
47.3%
Q4 - 8:52SASMISS Duncan 15' Jump Shot73
54.7%
73
45.3%
Q4 - 9:08SASSpurs Rebound73
59.4%
73
40.6%
Q4 - 9:09MIAMISS Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot73
57.5%
73
42.5%
Q4 - 9:24SASDuncan 14' Jump Shot (25 PTS)73
53.1%
73
46.9%
Q4 - 9:43MIAJackson 6' Jump Shot (8 PTS)71
47.4%
73
52.6%
Q4 - 9:58SASPorter Foul Turnover (P3.T15)71
53.1%
71
46.9%
Q4 - 10:17MIAJones 3PT Jump Shot (21 PTS) (Gatling 1 AST)71
59.1%
71
40.9%
Q4 - 10:40MIAStepania REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)71
69.1%
68
30.9%
Q4 - 10:42SASMISS Rose 17' Jump Shot71
70.7%
68
29.3%
Q4 - 11:08MIAJones 3PT Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Ellis 1 AST)71
72.9%
68
27.1%
Q4 - 11:09MIAEllis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)71
80.4%
65
19.6%
Q4 - 11:13MIAMISS Ellis 20' Jump Shot71
82.8%
65
17.2%
Q4 - 11:31SASRose 18' Jump Shot (20 PTS) (Daniels 1 AST)71
80.5%
65
19.5%
Q4 - 11:48MIAStepania Foul Turnover (P1.T8)69
77.1%
65
22.9%
Q3 - 0:00.0MIA69
72.8%
65
27.2%
Q3 - 0:00.0MIAHEAT Rebound69
72.8%
65
27.2%
Q3 - 0:00.0MIAMISS House 40' 3PT Jump Shot69
75.8%
65
24.2%
Q3 - 0:02.0SASStepania STEAL (1 STL)69
72.4%
65
27.6%
Q3 - 0:25.0MIAHouse Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T7)69
76.3%
65
23.7%
Q3 - 0:39.0SASPorter Foul Turnover (P2.T13)69
72.4%
65
27.6%
Q3 - 0:46.0SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6)69
76.3%
65
23.7%
Q3 - 0:48.0MIAMISS Ellis 20' Jump Shot69
75.2%
65
24.8%
Q3 - 1:07SASRose Free Throw 2 of 2 (18 PTS)69
71.8%
65
28.2%
Q3 - 1:07SASRose Free Throw 1 of 2 (17 PTS)68
70.9%
65
29.1%
Q3 - 1:07SASRose REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6)67
67.8%
65
32.2%
Q3 - 1:08MIAMISS Jones 17' Jump Shot67
66.4%
65
33.6%
Q3 - 1:33SASRose Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)67
63.3%
65
36.7%
Q3 - 1:33SASRose Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)66
62.3%
65
37.7%
Q3 - 1:33SASRose REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)65
58.8%
65
41.2%
Q3 - 1:34SASMISS Rose 6' Hook Shot65
55.3%
65
44.7%
Q3 - 1:35SASRose REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)65
58.8%
65
41.2%
Q3 - 1:37SASMISS Duncan 13' Jump Shot65
55.3%
65
44.7%
Q3 - 1:49MIAGrant Tip Shot (6 PTS)65
58.8%
65
41.2%
Q3 - 1:51MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)65
63.3%
63
36.7%
Q3 - 1:53MIAMISS Ellis 5' Hook Shot65
66.5%
63
33.5%
Q3 - 2:12SASDuncan 17' Jump Shot (23 PTS) (Rose 1 AST)65
62.5%
63
37.5%
Q3 - 2:26MIAJackson Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T6)63
58.4%
63
41.6%
Q3 - 2:43SASRose Dunk (14 PTS) (Parker 5 AST)63
53.4%
63
46.6%
Q3 - 2:50SASDaniels REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)61
49.2%
63
50.8%
Q3 - 2:52MIAMISS Jones 15' Jump Shot61
47.6%
63
52.4%
Q3 - 3:05MIAEllis REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)61
44.9%
63
55.1%
Q3 - 3:08SASMISS Duncan Free Throw 2 of 261
45.5%
63
54.5%
Q3 - 3:08SASDuncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (21 PTS)61
48.6%
63
51.4%
Q3 - 3:08SASRose REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)60
45.1%
63
54.9%
Q3 - 3:11SASMISS Rose 9' Running Hook Shot60
41.9%
63
58.1%
Q3 - 3:20SASRose REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)60
45.1%
63
54.9%
Q3 - 3:22MIAMISS Strickland 11' Jump Shot60
43.7%
63
56.3%
Q3 - 3:37SASRose Dunk (12 PTS) (Parker 4 AST)60
40.4%
63
59.6%
Q3 - 3:58MIAJones 25' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Strickland 6 AST)58
36.4%
63
63.6%
Q3 - 4:05MIAJackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)58
45.1%
60
54.9%
Q3 - 4:07SASMISS Parker Driving Layup58
46.6%
60
53.4%
Q3 - 4:17SASRose REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)58
50.0%
60
50.0%
Q3 - 4:19MIAMISS Jones 22' Jump Shot58
48.5%
60
51.5%
Q3 - 4:35MIAJackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)58
45.1%
60
54.9%
Q3 - 4:37SASMISS Smith 13' Jump Shot58
46.6%
60
53.4%
Q3 - 5:01SASParker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)58
50.2%
60
49.8%
Q3 - 5:03MIAMISS Gill 19' Jump Shot58
48.9%
60
51.1%
Q3 - 5:08SASEllis STEAL (1 STL)58
45.8%
60
54.2%
Q3 - 5:23MIAJones 8' Running Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Strickland 5 AST)58
50.2%
60
49.8%
Q3 - 5:36SASRose Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)58
54.0%
58
46.0%
Q3 - 5:36SASMISS Rose Free Throw 1 of 257
53.1%
58
46.9%
Q3 - 5:40SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)57
54.4%
58
45.6%
Q3 - 5:42MIAMISS Strickland 18' Jump Shot57
53.0%
58
47.0%
Q3 - 5:50MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)57
49.8%
58
50.2%
Q3 - 5:52SASMISS Jackson 25' 3PT Jump Shot57
51.2%
58
48.8%
Q3 - 5:58MIAMourning Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T5)57
54.4%
58
45.6%
Q3 - 6:00SASJones STEAL (1 STL)57
49.8%
58
50.2%
Q3 - 6:20SASSmith REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)57
54.4%
58
45.6%
Q3 - 6:22MIAMISS Jones 16' Jump Shot57
53.1%
58
46.9%
Q3 - 6:37MIAHEAT Rebound57
50.2%
58
49.8%
Q3 - 6:38SASMISS Jackson 25' 3PT Jump Shot57
51.5%
58
48.5%
Q3 - 6:58MIAMourning 8' Hook Shot (11 PTS)57
54.4%
58
45.6%
Q3 - 7:15SASRobinson Driving Layup (5 PTS)57
57.5%
56
42.5%
Q3 - 7:27MIAJones Free Throw 1 of 1 (10 PTS)55
54.3%
56
45.7%
Q3 - 7:27MIAJones Reverse Layup (9 PTS) (Grant 3 AST)55
58.1%
55
41.9%
Q3 - 7:38SASJackson 15' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Parker 3 AST)55
61.3%
53
38.7%
Q3 - 7:57MIAGrant Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)53
58.1%
53
41.9%
Q3 - 7:57MIAGrant Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)53
58.6%
52
41.4%
Q3 - 8:15SASJackson 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Duncan 1 AST)53
61.5%
51
38.5%
Q3 - 8:35SASRobinson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)50
54.6%
51
45.4%
Q3 - 8:37MIAMISS Strickland 15' Jump Shot50
53.3%
51
46.7%
Q3 - 8:53SASDuncan 4' Jump Shot (20 PTS)50
50.3%
51
49.7%
Q3 - 9:10MIAMourning Foul Turnover (P1.T4)48
47.1%
51
52.9%
Q3 - 9:23SASParker Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T10)48
43.4%
51
56.6%
Q3 - 9:35SASSmith REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)48
47.2%
51
52.8%
Q3 - 9:38MIAMISS Jones 21' Jump Shot48
46.0%
51
54.0%
Q3 - 10:06SASParker 21' Jump Shot (2 PTS)48
44.0%
51
56.0%
Q3 - 10:22MIAJones Out Of Bounds Turnover (P1.T3)46
40.9%
51
59.1%
Q3 - 10:28SASStrickland STEAL (2 STL)46
37.1%
51
62.9%
Q3 - 10:36SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)46
40.8%
51
59.2%
Q3 - 10:39MIAMISS Mourning 10' Hook Shot46
39.7%
51
60.3%
Q3 - 11:00SASDuncan 15' Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Parker 2 AST)46
37.1%
51
62.9%
Q3 - 11:02SASSpurs Rebound44
35.1%
51
64.9%
Q3 - 11:05SASMISS Duncan 10' Jump Shot44
32.8%
51
67.2%
Q3 - 11:16SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)44
35.0%
51
65.0%
Q3 - 11:17MIAMISS Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot44
34.0%
51
66.0%
Q3 - 11:27MIAJones REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)44
31.8%
51
68.2%
Q3 - 11:29MIAMISS Gill 21' Jump Shot44
34.0%
51
66.0%
Q3 - 11:43SASDuncan 9' Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Smith 2 AST)44
31.8%
51
68.2%
Q2 - 0:00.0MIA42
29.0%
51
71.0%
Q2 - 0:00.0MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)42
26.1%
51
73.9%
Q2 - 0:02.0MIAMISS Strickland 13' Jump Shot42
29.1%
51
70.9%
Q2 - 0:25.0SASDuncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)42
27.7%
51
72.3%
Q2 - 0:25.0SASDuncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)41
27.3%
51
72.7%
Q2 - 0:25.0SASSpurs Rebound40
24.4%
51
75.6%
Q2 - 0:26.0MIAMISS Gill 11' Jump Shot40
23.9%
51
76.1%
Q2 - 0:27.0MIAGill REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)40
22.7%
51
77.3%
Q2 - 0:29.0MIAMISS Gill Reverse Layup40
23.9%
51
76.1%
Q2 - 0:38.0SASRose Free Throw 1 of 1 (9 PTS)40
22.7%
51
77.3%
Q2 - 0:38.0SASRose Driving Layup (8 PTS)39
20.4%
51
79.6%
Q2 - 0:53.0MIAStrickland 10' Running Jump Shot (14 PTS)37
17.8%
51
82.2%
Q2 - 1:11SASDuncan 6' Jump Shot (12 PTS)37
21.5%
49
78.5%
Q2 - 1:30SASParker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)35
18.4%
49
81.6%
Q2 - 1:31MIAMISS Ellis 18' Jump Shot35
18.1%
49
81.9%
Q2 - 1:51MIAJones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)35
17.4%
49
82.6%
Q2 - 1:52SASMISS Duncan Free Throw 2 of 235
17.5%
49
82.5%
Q2 - 1:52SASDuncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)35
19.0%
49
81.0%
Q2 - 2:09MIAEllis Layup (6 PTS) (Jones 2 AST)34
17.8%
49
82.2%
Q2 - 2:14SASMourning STEAL (1 STL)34
19.8%
47
80.2%
Q2 - 2:29MIAMourning 17' Jump Shot (9 PTS)34
21.7%
47
78.3%
Q2 - 2:52SASSmith Free Throw 1 of 1 (7 PTS)34
24.1%
45
75.9%
Q2 - 2:52SASSmith Reverse Layup (6 PTS)33
21.9%
45
78.1%
Q2 - 3:08SASSmith REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)31
21.2%
45
78.8%
Q2 - 3:10MIAMISS Mourning 18' Jump Shot31
20.5%
45
79.5%
Q2 - 3:30SASRose 8' Running Hook Shot (6 PTS)31
19.0%
45
81.0%
Q2 - 3:43SASDaniels REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)29
17.4%
45
82.6%
Q2 - 3:45MIAMISS Ellis 20' Jump Shot29
16.8%
45
83.2%
Q2 - 4:08SASMISS Daniels Free Throw 1 of 129
16.9%
45
83.1%
Q2 - 4:08SASDaniels Driving Layup (4 PTS)29
16.7%
45
83.3%
Q2 - 4:12SASBryant REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)27
15.2%
45
84.8%
Q2 - 4:14MIAMISS Mourning 17' Jump Shot27
14.7%
45
85.3%
Q2 - 4:37MIAJackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)27
13.7%
45
86.3%
Q2 - 4:39SASMISS Bryant Layup27
14.1%
45
85.9%
Q2 - 4:47SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)27
15.1%
45
84.9%
Q2 - 4:49MIAMISS Mourning 16' Jump Shot27
14.7%
45
85.3%
Q2 - 5:06MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)27
14.2%
45
85.8%
Q2 - 5:08SASMISS Bryant 15' Jump Shot27
14.7%
45
85.3%
Q2 - 5:27MIAStrickland 10' Running Jump Shot (12 PTS)27
15.8%
45
84.2%
Q2 - 5:39MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)27
17.2%
43
82.8%
Q2 - 5:41SASMISS Smith 10' Jump Shot27
17.7%
43
82.3%
Q2 - 5:55MIAJones 25' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Strickland 4 AST)27
19.0%
43
81.0%
Q2 - 6:12SASDuncan 12' Jump Shot (9 PTS)27
23.4%
40
76.6%
Q2 - 6:29SASPorter REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)25
21.8%
40
78.2%
Q2 - 6:31MIAMISS Gatling 20' Jump Shot25
21.1%
40
78.9%
Q2 - 6:47SASBryant Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)25
19.6%
40
80.4%
Q2 - 6:47SASBryant Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)24
19.2%
40
80.8%
Q2 - 6:49SASBryant REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)23
18.2%
40
81.8%
Q2 - 6:51SASMISS Porter 25' 3PT Jump Shot23
16.9%
40
83.1%
Q2 - 6:54SASRose REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)23
18.2%
40
81.8%
Q2 - 6:56MIAMISS Jackson 17' Jump Shot23
17.6%
40
82.4%
Q2 - 7:11SASJackson Foul Turnover (P3.T7)23
17.8%
40
82.2%
Q2 - 7:22MIAJump Ball Gatling vs. Bryant: Tip to23
19.4%
40
80.6%
Q2 - 7:23MIAMISS House 13' Jump Shot23
18.9%
40
81.1%
Q2 - 7:27MIAJackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)23
17.7%
40
82.3%
Q2 - 7:29SASJackson BLOCK (1 BLK)23
18.2%
40
81.8%
Q2 - 7:49MIAGatling 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Jackson 1 AST)23
19.4%
40
80.6%
Q2 - 8:09SASDaniels Driving Finger Roll (2 PTS)23
21.3%
38
78.7%
Q2 - 8:29MIAJackson 19' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (House 2 AST)21
19.8%
38
80.2%
Q2 - 8:45SASRose 16' Jump Shot (4 PTS)21
21.3%
36
78.7%
Q2 - 9:05MIAMourning Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)19
20.6%
36
79.4%
Q2 - 9:05MIAMISS Mourning Free Throw 1 of 219
21.1%
35
78.9%
Q2 - 9:29SASDuncan Dunk (7 PTS)19
20.3%
35
79.7%
Q2 - 9:32SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)17
18.9%
35
81.1%
Q2 - 9:34SASMISS Rose 14' Jump Shot17
17.7%
35
82.3%
Q2 - 9:59MIAEllis 14' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (House 1 AST)17
18.9%
35
81.1%
Q2 - 10:02MIAHouse REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)17
20.6%
33
79.4%
Q2 - 10:04SASMourning BLOCK (1 BLK)17
21.2%
33
78.8%
Q2 - 10:07SASPorter REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)17
22.5%
33
77.5%
Q2 - 10:09MIAMISS House 15' Jump Shot17
21.9%
33
78.1%
Q2 - 10:15SASJackson STEAL (1 STL)17
20.6%
33
79.4%
Q2 - 10:33MIAJackson 12' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Mourning 2 AST)17
22.5%
33
77.5%
Q2 - 11:01SASJackson 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Porter 1 AST)17
24.9%
31
75.1%
Q2 - 11:08SASRose REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)14
21.4%
31
78.6%
Q2 - 11:10MIAMISS Mourning 4' Hook Shot14
20.9%
31
79.1%
Q2 - 11:30SASPorter Foul Turnover (P1.T5)14
19.8%
31
80.2%
Q2 - 11:35MIAMourning Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)14
21.3%
31
78.7%
Q2 - 11:35MIAMourning Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)14
21.8%
30
78.2%
Q2 - 11:35MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)14
23.0%
29
77.0%
Q2 - 11:37MIAMISS Ellis Layup14
24.2%
29
75.8%
Q2 - 11:43MIAJackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)14
23.0%
29
77.0%
Q2 - 11:45SASMISS Duncan 16' Jump Shot14
23.5%
29
76.5%
Q1 - 0:00.0SAS14
24.7%
29
75.3%
Q1 - 0:00.0SASRose REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)14
24.7%
29
75.3%
Q1 - 0:01.0MIAMISS Strickland 16' Jump Shot14
24.6%
29
75.4%
Q1 - 0:09.0SASDuncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)14
23.7%
29
76.3%
Q1 - 0:09.0SASMISS Duncan Free Throw 1 of 213
23.4%
29
76.6%
Q1 - 0:27.0MIAJackson 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Grant 2 AST)13
23.3%
29
76.7%
Q1 - 0:44.0MIAJackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)13
25.4%
27
74.6%
Q1 - 0:46.0SASMISS Daniels 18' Jump Shot13
25.8%
27
74.2%
Q1 - 1:01MIAStrickland 16' Jump Shot (10 PTS)13
27.1%
27
72.9%
Q1 - 1:07MIAEllis REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)13
29.4%
25
70.6%
Q1 - 1:09SASMISS Rose 21' Jump Shot13
29.9%
25
70.1%
Q1 - 1:19SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)13
30.9%
25
69.1%
Q1 - 1:21MIAMISS Ellis 3PT Jump Shot13
30.5%
25
69.5%
Q1 - 1:34SASRose Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T4)13
29.4%
25
70.6%
Q1 - 1:56MIAEllis 5' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Strickland 3 AST)13
30.9%
25
69.1%
Q1 - 2:02MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)13
33.8%
23
66.2%
Q1 - 2:04SASMISS Smith 10' Jump Shot13
34.4%
23
65.6%
Q1 - 2:38MIAStrickland Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)13
35.7%
23
64.3%
Q1 - 2:38MIAStrickland Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)13
36.1%
22
63.9%
Q1 - 2:51SASRose Reverse Layup (2 PTS) (Smith 1 AST)13
38.0%
21
62.0%
Q1 - 2:52SASSmith REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)11
35.7%
21
64.3%
Q1 - 2:55SASMISS Duncan 10' Jump Shot11
34.3%
21
65.7%
Q1 - 3:14MIAGill 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS)11
36.7%
21
63.3%
Q1 - 3:15MIAGill REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)11
40.7%
18
59.3%
Q1 - 3:19MIAMISS Jones Dunk11
42.4%
18
57.6%
Q1 - 3:30SASDuncan Tip Shot (4 PTS)11
40.7%
18
59.3%
Q1 - 3:32SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)9
38.7%
18
61.3%
Q1 - 3:35SASMISS Smith 7' Running Jump Shot9
37.1%
18
62.9%
Q1 - 3:45MIAGrant Illegal Pick Turnover (P1.T2)9
38.7%
18
61.3%
Q1 - 4:12SASDuncan 4' Hook Shot (2 PTS) (Robinson 1 AST)9
36.8%
18
63.2%
Q1 - 4:21SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)7
35.2%
18
64.8%
Q1 - 4:23SASMISS Daniels 15' Jump Shot7
33.5%
18
66.5%
Q1 - 4:42MIAJones Running Dunk (4 PTS) (Grant 1 AST)7
35.2%
18
64.8%
Q1 - 4:52SASSmith Reverse Layup (4 PTS)7
36.8%
16
63.2%
Q1 - 4:54SASSmith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)5
35.2%
16
64.8%
Q1 - 4:56SASMISS Duncan 14' Jump Shot5
33.5%
16
66.5%
Q1 - 5:11MIAHEAT Turnover: Shot Clock (T#1)5
36.2%
16
63.8%
Q1 - 5:11MIAHEAT Rebound5
34.1%
16
65.9%
Q1 - 5:12MIAMISS Mourning 21' Jump Shot5
35.5%
16
64.5%
Q1 - 5:35MIAStrickland REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)5
34.0%
16
66.0%
Q1 - 5:37SASMISS Daniels 24' 3PT Jump Shot5
34.6%
16
65.4%
Q1 - 5:55SASRobinson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)5
36.1%
16
63.9%
Q1 - 5:56MIAMISS Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot5
35.4%
16
64.6%
Q1 - 6:06MIAJones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)5
34.9%
16
65.1%
Q1 - 6:08MIAMISS Jones 16' Jump Shot5
36.2%
16
63.8%
Q1 - 6:33SASRobinson Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)5
34.8%
16
65.2%
Q1 - 6:33SASRobinson Dunk (2 PTS) (Parker 1 AST)4
33.0%
16
67.0%
Q1 - 6:47MIAStrickland 17' Jump Shot (6 PTS)2
31.3%
16
68.7%
Q1 - 6:58SASRobinson Foul Turnover (P1.T3)2
33.0%
14
67.0%
Q1 - 7:11MIAGrant 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Strickland 2 AST)2
36.4%
14
63.6%
Q1 - 7:24MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)2
37.9%
12
62.1%
Q1 - 7:26SASMISS Smith 15' Jump Shot2
38.5%
12
61.5%
Q1 - 7:40MIAJones Reverse Layup (2 PTS) (Strickland 1 AST)2
39.9%
12
60.1%
Q1 - 7:47MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)2
41.5%
10
58.5%
Q1 - 7:49SASMISS Robinson 11' Jump Shot2
42.1%
10
57.9%
Q1 - 8:09MIAMourning Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)2
44.1%
10
55.9%
Q1 - 8:09MIAMourning Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)2
44.7%
9
55.3%
Q1 - 8:18MIAHEAT Rebound2
45.8%
8
54.2%
Q1 - 8:20MIAMISS Grant Driving Layup2
47.2%
8
52.8%
Q1 - 8:30MIAGill REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)2
45.8%
8
54.2%
Q1 - 8:32SASMISS Robinson 6' Hook Shot2
46.4%
8
53.6%
Q1 - 8:53MIAStrickland Reverse Layup (4 PTS) (Jones 1 AST)2
47.9%
8
52.1%
Q1 - 9:00MIAJones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)2
49.5%
6
50.5%
Q1 - 9:02SASMISS Smith 24' 3PT Jump Shot2
49.9%
6
50.1%
Q1 - 9:19MIAStrickland 13' Jump Shot (2 PTS)2
51.6%
6
48.4%
Q1 - 9:33SASSmith 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS)2
53.0%
4
47.0%
Q1 - 9:43SASRobinson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)0
51.6%
4
48.4%
Q1 - 9:46MIAMISS Mourning 6' Hook Shot0
50.9%
4
49.1%
Q1 - 10:08MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)0
49.4%
4
50.6%
Q1 - 10:10SASMISS Duncan 16' Jump Shot0
50.1%
4
49.9%
Q1 - 10:28SASRobinson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)0
51.5%
4
48.5%
Q1 - 10:30MIAMISS Jones 19' Jump Shot0
50.9%
4
49.1%
Q1 - 10:51SASJackson Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T2)0
49.4%
4
50.6%
Q1 - 11:01MIAGill 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Mourning 1 AST)0
51.5%
4
48.5%
Q1 - 11:10MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)0
53.5%
2
46.5%
Q1 - 11:13MIAMISS Strickland Running Layup0
54.6%
2
45.4%
Q1 - 11:17SASStrickland STEAL (1 STL)0
53.5%
2
46.5%
Q1 - 11:43MIAMourning Dunk (2 PTS)0
55.1%
2
44.9%
Q1 - 12:00MIAJump Ball Mourning vs. Robinson: Tip to Jones0
57.1%
0
42.9%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

SAS
0.99 49.4%
MIA
0.93 46.3%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
SAS
15
19
79%
MIA
10
18
56%
Midrange
SAS
15
42
36%
MIA
18
52
35%
3PT | Effective 3PT
SAS
2
3.0
9
22%
33%
MIA
6
9.0
12
50%
75%
Free Throws
SAS
17
24
71%
MIA
14
17
82%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
SAS logo Spurs
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
T. Duncan2956%14.5 / 26
M. Rose2059%10.0 / 17
S. Jackson1275%6.0 / 8
S. Smith735%3.5 / 10
D. Robinson750%3.5 / 7
A. Daniels433%2.0 / 6
T. Parker250%1.0 / 2
M. Bryant233%1.0 / 3
T. Porter0-0.0 / 4
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
MIA logo Heat
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
E. Jones2450%12.0 / 24
R. Strickland1761%8.5 / 14
A. Mourning1341%6.5 / 16
B. Grant1071%5.0 / 7
J. Jackson964%4.5 / 7
L. Ellis630%3.0 / 10
K. Gill542%2.5 / 6
C. Gatling467%2.0 / 3
E. House0-0.0 / 3
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

SAS
74
+10
-19
84
MIA
82
+12
-8
94
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS
0.99 49.4%
MIA
0.93 46.3%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
103.9
96.1
SAS 89.2
MIA 97.8 +8.5
Pace
92.4
89.7
SAS 94.9 +6.7
MIA 88.2
Avg. Poss. Time
15.5
16.7
SAS 15.2 +1.2
MIA 16.3
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
49.2%
46.3%
SAS 47.1% +2.0%
MIA 45.1%
TO %
14.8%
15.5%
SAS 19.1%
MIA 9.1% +10.0%
ORB %
27.2%
26.7%
SAS 23.7% +2.8%
MIA 20.9%
FTrt
35.3
26.8
SAS 34.3 +13.6
MIA 20.7
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
56.4%
59.4%
SAS 40.6%
MIA 67.6% +27.0%
STL %
8.2%
7.4%
SAS 3.2%
MIA 7.8% +4.6%
BLK %
9.5%
8.7%
SAS 2.9%
MIA 3.3% +0.4%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.08 and 2.08.

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
51.2%
47.7%
SAS 49.4% +3.1%
MIA 46.3%
Rim FG%
60.3%
60.6%
SAS 78.9% +23.3%
MIA 55.6%
Mid FG%
37.6%
38.0%
SAS 35.7% +1.1%
MIA 34.6%
3P %
36.2%
34.7%
SAS 22.2%
MIA 50.0% +27.8%
FT %
74.2%
72.4%
SAS 70.8%
MIA 82.4% +11.6%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
37.2%
28.1%
SAS 27.1% +5.2%
MIA 22.0%
Mid Att. %
43.8%
57.8%
SAS 60.0% +3.4%
MIA 63.4%
3P Att. %
19.0%
14.1%
SAS 12.9%
MIA 14.6% +1.8%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.
Game TotalsSASMIA
Possessions9390
Possession Minutes23.524.5
Points8388
Rebounds4338
Assists1323
Steals37
Blocks22
Turnovers (Team)19 (0)8 (1)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)9 (1)9 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)34 (3)29 (2)
Field Goals32-7034-82
At-the-Rim FG15-1910-18
Midrange FG15-4218-52
2-Point FG30-6128-70
3-Point FG2-96-12
Free Throws17-2414-17
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

Access to boxscore predictions requires a premium subscription.
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
F · 6'11" 250 · 26
45.6
29
56%
12
1
0
2
2
6
3
9
7-10
70%
11-21
52%
0-0
-
F · 6'8" 221 · 33
34.1
7
35%
6
2
0
0
3
0
2
4
1-1
100%
3-8
38%
0-1
0%
G · 6'8" 220 · 24
25.4
12
75%
0
0
1
0
4
3
0
0
0-0
-
3-4
75%
2-4
50%
G · 6'2" 185 · 20
24.1
2
50%
2
5
1
0
3
1
0
2
0-0
-
1-2
50%
0-0
-
C · 7'1" 250 · 36
22.5
7
50%
7
2
0
0
1
4
0
7
1-1
100%
3-6
50%
0-0
-
G · 6'4" 205 · 27
36.6
4
33%
2
1
0
0
0
1
0
2
0-3
0%
2-4
50%
0-1
0%
G · 6'3" 205 · 39
23.9
0
0%
3
1
1
0
4
3
0
3
0-0
-
0-1
0%
0-3
0%
F · 6'7" 255 · 27
22.9
20
59%
9
1
0
0
2
1
3
6
6-7
86%
7-13
54%
0-0
-
F · 6'9" 250 · 37
5.0
2
33%
2
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
2-2
100%
0-2
0%
0-0
-
G · 6'4" 200 · 26
F-C · 6'11" 240 · 29
C · 6'11" 235 · 28
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
83
49%
43
13
3
2
19
0
9
34
17-24
71%
30-61
49%
2-9
22%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.