Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, January 26, 2002

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	8	Nets	59%	90	77
	23	Heat	41%	87	90

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
NJN	95.1	81	85.7
MIA	108.4	83	78.7

Scoring Opportunities

NJN

+15

-12

MIA

+14

-16

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

NJN

0.91 45.3%

MIA

1.10 54.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	NJN	MIA
Q4 - 0:00.0	NJN		77 0%	90 100%
Q4 - 0:05.0	MIA	Ellis Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T17)	77 0%	90 100%
Q4 - 0:07.0	MIA	Ellis REBOUND (Off:6 Def:1)	77 0%	90 100%
Q4 - 0:09.0	MIA	MISS Grant 7' Jump Shot	77 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 0:24.0	MIA	Ellis REBOUND (Off:5 Def:1)	77 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 0:27.0	MIA	MISS James 20' Jump Shot	77 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 0:44.0	NJN	Marshall 7' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Armstrong 1 AST)	77 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 0:54.0	NJN	Jefferson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	75 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 0:56.0	MIA	MISS Grant 20' Jump Shot	75 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 1:18	NJN	Armstrong 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	75 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 1:25	NJN	Armstrong REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	73 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 1:27	NJN	MISS Collins 6' Jump Shot	73 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 1:44	NJN	Collins REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	73 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 1:46	MIA	MISS James 4' Jump Shot	73 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 2:03	NJN	Jefferson 8' Running Jump Shot (7 PTS)	73 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 2:18	MIA	Jackson Driving Layup (9 PTS)	71 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 2:35	MIA	Ellis REBOUND (Off:4 Def:1)	71 0.1%	88 99.9%
Q4 - 2:36	MIA	MISS Grant Layup	71 0.1%	88 99.9%
Q4 - 2:55	MIA	Jones REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	71 0.1%	88 99.9%
Q4 - 2:57	NJN	MISS Collins 5' Jump Shot	71 0.1%	88 99.9%
Q4 - 3:09	NJN	Nets Rebound	71 0.1%	88 99.9%
Q4 - 3:10	MIA	MISS Ellis 18' Jump Shot	71 0.1%	88 99.9%
Q4 - 3:31	MIA	Jackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)	71 0.3%	88 99.7%
Q4 - 3:33	NJN	MISS Martin 5' Jump Shot	71 0.3%	88 99.7%
Q4 - 3:57	MIA	Jones 9' Jump Shot (20 PTS)	71 0.3%	88 99.7%
Q4 - 4:19	MIA	Jackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	71 0.4%	86 99.6%
Q4 - 4:20	NJN	MISS Jefferson Free Throw 2 of 2	71 0.4%	86 99.6%
Q4 - 4:20	NJN	Jefferson Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	71 0.6%	86 99.4%
Q4 - 4:23	NJN	Kidd REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	70 0.4%	86 99.6%
Q4 - 4:25	MIA	MISS Strickland 14' Jump Shot	70 0.4%	86 99.6%
Q4 - 4:51	NJN	Martin 25' 3PT Jump Shot (19 PTS) (Kidd 9 AST)	70 0.3%	86 99.7%
Q4 - 5:12	MIA	Grant Layup (9 PTS)	67 0.3%	86 99.7%
Q4 - 5:35	MIA	Grant REBOUND (Off:4 Def:8)	67 0.4%	84 99.6%
Q4 - 5:37	NJN	MISS Van Horn 17' Jump Shot	67 0.5%	84 99.5%
Q4 - 5:58	NJN	Van Horn REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	67 0.6%	84 99.4%
Q4 - 6:00	NJN	MISS Harris 24' 3PT Jump Shot	67 0.4%	84 99.6%
Q4 - 6:08	MIA	Gill 8' Jump Shot (10 PTS)	67 1.0%	84 99.0%
Q4 - 6:27	MIA	Grant REBOUND (Off:4 Def:7)	67 1.3%	82 98.7%
Q4 - 6:32	NJN	MISS Van Horn 11' Hook Shot	67 1.4%	82 98.6%
Q4 - 6:50	MIA	Jackson 20' Jump Shot (7 PTS)	67 1.8%	82 98.2%
Q4 - 7:08	NJN	Harris Layup (11 PTS) (Kidd 8 AST)	67 3.5%	80 96.5%
Q4 - 7:12	MIA	Strickland Lost Ball Turnover (P4.T16)	65 2.7%	80 97.3%
Q4 - 7:18	MIA	Grant REBOUND (Off:4 Def:6)	65 2.0%	80 98.0%
Q4 - 7:21	NJN	MISS Williams Finger Roll	65 2.2%	80 97.8%
Q4 - 7:38	MIA	Jackson Free Throw 1 of 1 (5 PTS)	65 2.7%	80 97.3%
Q4 - 7:38	MIA	Jackson 18' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Gill 2 AST)	65 3.5%	79 96.5%
Q4 - 7:59	NJN	Van Horn 21' Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Harris 2 AST)	65 4.4%	77 95.6%
Q4 - 8:06	MIA	Gill Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T15)	63 4.6%	77 95.4%
Q4 - 8:09	MIA	Gill REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)	63 3.6%	77 96.4%
Q4 - 8:11	NJN	MISS Kidd 24' 3PT Jump Shot	63 3.8%	77 96.2%
Q4 - 8:28	MIA	Mourning Free Throw 2 of 2 (23 PTS)	63 4.5%	77 95.5%
Q4 - 8:28	MIA	Mourning Free Throw 1 of 2 (22 PTS)	63 4.9%	76 95.1%
Q4 - 8:40	NJN	Harris 26' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Kidd 7 AST)	63 5.7%	75 94.3%
Q4 - 8:49	MIA	Jackson Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T14)	60 3.5%	75 96.5%
Q4 - 9:07	MIA	Mourning REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	60 3.5%	75 96.5%
Q4 - 9:08	NJN	MISS Van Horn Free Throw 2 of 2	60 3.7%	75 96.3%
Q4 - 9:08	NJN	Van Horn Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)	60 4.2%	75 95.8%
Q4 - 9:13	NJN	Williams REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)	59 3.6%	75 96.4%
Q4 - 9:15	MIA	MISS Gill 19' Jump Shot	59 3.3%	75 96.7%
Q4 - 9:35	MIA	Ellis REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)	59 2.8%	75 97.2%
Q4 - 9:36	MIA	MISS Jones Free Throw 2 of 2	59 3.4%	75 96.6%
Q4 - 9:36	MIA	Jones Free Throw 1 of 2 (18 PTS)	59 2.9%	75 97.1%
Q4 - 9:58	NJN	Jefferson Alley Oop Layup (4 PTS) (Kidd 6 AST)	59 3.5%	74 96.5%
Q4 - 10:04	NJN	Nets Rebound	57 3.5%	74 96.5%
Q4 - 10:05	NJN	MISS Collins 16' Jump Shot	57 2.9%	74 97.1%
Q4 - 10:16	MIA	Ellis 7' Fadeaway Jumper (8 PTS)	57 3.5%	74 96.5%
Q4 - 10:39	MIA	Gill REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	57 4.2%	72 95.8%
Q4 - 10:41	NJN	MISS Jefferson Layup	57 4.5%	72 95.5%
Q4 - 10:54	MIA	Mourning Free Throw 2 of 2 (21 PTS)	57 5.3%	72 94.7%
Q4 - 10:54	MIA	Mourning Free Throw 1 of 2 (20 PTS)	57 5.6%	71 94.4%
Q4 - 11:06	MIA	Jackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	57 7.3%	70 92.7%
Q4 - 11:08	NJN	MISS Williams 6' Hook Shot	57 7.8%	70 92.2%
Q4 - 11:28	NJN	Jefferson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	57 9.0%	70 91.0%
Q4 - 11:30	MIA	MISS Jones Free Throw 2 of 2	57 8.7%	70 91.3%
Q4 - 11:30	MIA	MISS Jones Free Throw 1 of 2	57 7.5%	70 92.5%
Q4 - 11:30	MIA	Jones REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	57 7.3%	70 92.7%
Q4 - 11:31	MIA	MISS Gill 25' 3PT Jump Shot	57 8.4%	70 91.6%
Q3 - 0:00.0	MIA		57 7.2%	70 92.8%
Q3 - 0:00.0	MIA	Mourning REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	57 7.2%	70 92.8%
Q3 - 0:00.0	NJN	MISS Martin 19' Jump Shot	57 7.7%	70 92.3%
Q3 - 0:01.0	NJN	Nets Rebound	57 10.4%	70 89.6%
Q3 - 0:02.0	NJN	MISS Harris Free Throw 2 of 2	57 8.9%	70 91.1%
Q3 - 0:02.0	NJN	Harris Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)	57 10.1%	70 89.9%
Q3 - 0:18.0	MIA	Jones 24' 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Ellis 1 AST)	56 8.6%	70 91.4%
Q3 - 0:37.0	MIA	Mourning REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	56 12.3%	67 87.7%
Q3 - 0:39.0	NJN	Jones BLOCK (1 BLK)	56 13.0%	67 87.0%
Q3 - 0:57.0	MIA	Jackson Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T13)	56 14.7%	67 85.3%
Q3 - 1:17	MIA	Gill REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	56 13.9%	67 86.1%
Q3 - 1:18	NJN	MISS Johnson Free Throw 2 of 2	56 14.2%	67 85.8%
Q3 - 1:18	NJN	Johnson Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	56 15.8%	67 84.2%
Q3 - 1:18	NJN	Harris Free Throw Technical (5 PTS)	55 13.9%	67 86.1%
Q3 - 1:26	MIA	Jones Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)	54 11.7%	67 88.3%
Q3 - 1:26	MIA	MISS Jones Free Throw 1 of 2	54 12.0%	66 88.0%
Q3 - 1:43	NJN	Martin Dunk (16 PTS) (Harris 1 AST)	54 11.6%	66 88.4%
Q3 - 1:47	NJN	Collins REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	52 9.8%	66 90.2%
Q3 - 1:49	MIA	MISS Strickland Driving Layup	52 9.3%	66 90.7%
Q3 - 2:10	NJN	Kittles 14' Jump Shot (14 PTS)	52 9.1%	66 90.9%
Q3 - 2:32	MIA	Grant 8' Hook Shot (7 PTS)	50 7.8%	66 92.2%
Q3 - 2:55	NJN	Gill STEAL (2 STL)	50 9.1%	64 90.9%
Q3 - 3:11	MIA	Jones 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Strickland 7 AST)	50 12.0%	64 88.0%
Q3 - 3:22	NJN	Collins Traveling Turnover (P2.T12)	50 16.1%	61 83.9%
Q3 - 3:32	NJN	MISS Collins Free Throw Flagrant 2 of 2	50 18.9%	61 81.1%
Q3 - 3:32	NJN	MISS Collins Free Throw Flagrant 1 of 2	50 20.8%	61 79.2%
Q3 - 3:46	MIA	Jones Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)	50 18.8%	61 81.2%
Q3 - 3:46	MIA	MISS Jones Free Throw 1 of 2	50 19.2%	60 80.8%
Q3 - 4:06	NJN	Martin Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)	50 19.8%	60 80.2%
Q3 - 4:06	NJN	Martin Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)	49 19.1%	60 80.9%
Q3 - 4:06	MIA	MISS Jones Free Throw Technical	48 17.6%	60 82.4%
Q3 - 4:11	NJN	Kidd REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	48 17.6%	60 82.4%
Q3 - 4:13	MIA	MISS Grant 12' Jump Shot	48 16.7%	60 83.3%
Q3 - 4:35	NJN	Jones STEAL (3 STL)	48 14.8%	60 85.2%
Q3 - 4:55	MIA	Mourning Free Throw 2 of 2 (19 PTS)	48 17.5%	60 82.5%
Q3 - 4:55	MIA	MISS Mourning Free Throw 1 of 2	48 18.2%	59 81.8%
Q3 - 4:58	MIA	Grant REBOUND (Off:4 Def:5)	48 17.1%	59 82.9%
Q3 - 5:01	NJN	Mourning BLOCK (4 BLK)	48 19.3%	59 80.7%
Q3 - 5:08	MIA	Mourning Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T12)	48 21.3%	59 78.7%
Q3 - 5:10	NJN	Gill STEAL (1 STL)	48 18.4%	59 81.6%
Q3 - 5:19	NJN	Kidd Free Throw Technical (6 PTS)	48 21.2%	59 78.8%
Q3 - 5:31	MIA	Strickland Free Throw 1 of 1 (11 PTS)	47 18.6%	59 81.4%
Q3 - 5:31	MIA	Strickland Driving Layup (10 PTS)	47 21.2%	58 78.8%
Q3 - 5:58	NJN	Martin Layup (12 PTS)	47 23.8%	56 76.2%
Q3 - 6:00	NJN	Martin REBOUND (Off:3 Def:0)	45 21.2%	56 78.8%
Q3 - 6:01	NJN	MISS Van Horn 25' 3PT Jump Shot	45 20.5%	56 79.5%
Q3 - 6:16	MIA	Jones Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)	45 22.5%	56 77.5%
Q3 - 6:16	MIA	Jones Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)	45 22.9%	55 77.1%
Q3 - 6:33	MIA	Grant REBOUND (Off:4 Def:4)	45 25.1%	54 74.9%
Q3 - 6:35	MIA	MISS Gill 17' Jump Shot	45 27.4%	54 72.6%
Q3 - 7:03	NJN	MacCulloch 5' Hook Shot (2 PTS) (Kidd 5 AST)	45 25.7%	54 74.3%
Q3 - 7:12	NJN	Kidd REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	43 23.2%	54 76.8%
Q3 - 7:14	MIA	MISS Strickland 19' Jump Shot	43 22.3%	54 77.7%
Q3 - 7:35	NJN	Van Horn Layup (6 PTS)	43 20.2%	54 79.8%
Q3 - 7:36	NJN	Van Horn REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	41 18.1%	54 81.9%
Q3 - 7:38	NJN	MISS Martin 7' Hook Shot	41 16.4%	54 83.6%
Q3 - 7:40	NJN	Martin REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	41 18.1%	54 81.9%
Q3 - 7:43	NJN	MISS Van Horn Layup	41 16.4%	54 83.6%
Q3 - 7:47	NJN	MacCulloch REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	41 18.1%	54 81.9%
Q3 - 7:49	MIA	MISS Grant Layup	41 17.3%	54 82.7%
Q3 - 8:04	NJN	Martin Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)	41 16.6%	54 83.4%
Q3 - 8:04	NJN	Martin Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)	40 16.1%	54 83.9%
Q3 - 8:18	MIA	Strickland 16' Jump Shot (8 PTS)	39 14.8%	54 85.2%
Q3 - 8:35	MIA	Mourning REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	39 16.5%	52 83.5%
Q3 - 8:37	NJN	MISS Van Horn 17' Jump Shot	39 17.3%	52 82.7%
Q3 - 9:08	MIA	Grant Dunk (5 PTS) (Strickland 6 AST)	39 20.0%	52 80.0%
Q3 - 9:24	MIA	Mourning REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	39 22.3%	50 77.7%
Q3 - 9:26	NJN	MISS Kidd 9' Jump Shot	39 23.1%	50 76.9%
Q3 - 9:43	MIA	Mourning 16' Jump Shot (18 PTS)	39 25.0%	50 75.0%
Q3 - 9:55	MIA	Grant REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)	39 27.8%	48 72.2%
Q3 - 9:57	NJN	MISS Kittles 25' 3PT Jump Shot	39 28.7%	48 71.3%
Q3 - 10:15	MIA	Mourning 5' Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Strickland 5 AST)	39 32.3%	48 67.7%
Q3 - 10:23	MIA	Grant REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)	39 35.1%	46 64.9%
Q3 - 10:25	NJN	MISS Kidd 19' Jump Shot	39 36.2%	46 63.8%
Q3 - 10:33	NJN	MacCulloch REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	39 38.8%	46 61.2%
Q3 - 10:35	MIA	MISS Jones 20' Jump Shot	39 37.6%	46 62.4%
Q3 - 10:50	NJN	Jones STEAL (2 STL)	39 35.0%	46 65.0%
Q3 - 11:08	MIA	Gill 18' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Strickland 4 AST)	39 39.8%	46 60.2%
Q3 - 11:25	NJN	Van Horn Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	39 43.0%	44 57.0%
Q3 - 11:25	NJN	Van Horn Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	38 42.3%	44 57.7%
Q3 - 11:27	MIA	Grant Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T11)	37 39.8%	44 60.2%
Q3 - 11:40	NJN	Kidd 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Kittles 1 AST)	37 36.3%	44 63.7%
Q2 - 0:00.0	NJN		34 30.3%	44 69.7%
Q2 - 0:00.0	NJN	Nets Rebound	34 30.3%	44 69.7%
Q2 - 0:00.0	MIA	MISS Mourning 19' Jump Shot	34 29.4%	44 70.6%
Q2 - 0:15.0	NJN	Jefferson 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	34 29.2%	44 70.8%
Q2 - 0:35.0	NJN	Kittles REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	32 25.7%	44 74.3%
Q2 - 0:37.0	MIA	MISS Ellis Layup	32 25.2%	44 74.8%
Q2 - 0:56.0	NJN	Martin 5' Hook Shot (8 PTS)	32 23.9%	44 76.1%
Q2 - 1:16	MIA	Mourning Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)	30 21.7%	44 78.3%
Q2 - 1:16	MIA	MISS Mourning Free Throw 1 of 2	30 22.5%	43 77.5%
Q2 - 1:34	MIA	Mourning REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	30 22.8%	43 77.2%
Q2 - 1:36	MIA	MISS Jones 18' Jump Shot	30 23.6%	43 76.4%
Q2 - 1:53	NJN	Jefferson Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T8)	30 22.7%	43 77.3%
Q2 - 1:58	NJN	Kidd REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	30 23.9%	43 76.1%
Q2 - 2:00	MIA	MISS Gill 21' Jump Shot	30 23.6%	43 76.4%
Q2 - 2:20	MIA	Jackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	30 23.3%	43 76.7%
Q2 - 2:23	NJN	MISS Martin Free Throw 2 of 2	30 23.6%	43 76.4%
Q2 - 2:23	NJN	Martin Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)	30 25.0%	43 75.0%
Q2 - 2:23	NJN	Martin REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	29 23.1%	43 76.9%
Q2 - 2:25	NJN	Mourning BLOCK (3 BLK)	29 21.7%	43 78.3%
Q2 - 2:36	MIA	HEAT Turnover: Shot Clock (T#10)	29 23.1%	43 76.9%
Q2 - 2:36	MIA	HEAT Rebound	29 21.1%	43 78.9%
Q2 - 2:36	MIA	MISS Ellis 20' Jump Shot	29 22.5%	43 77.5%
Q2 - 3:00	MIA	Ellis REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	29 21.1%	43 78.9%
Q2 - 3:01	NJN	MISS Martin Free Throw 2 of 2	29 22.8%	43 77.2%
Q2 - 3:01	NJN	Martin Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	29 24.1%	43 75.9%
Q2 - 3:13	MIA	Strickland Palming Turnover (P3.T9)	28 22.7%	43 77.3%
Q2 - 3:15	MIA	Strickland REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	28 20.4%	43 79.6%
Q2 - 3:18	NJN	MISS Kittles 25' 3PT Jump Shot	28 21.1%	43 78.9%
Q2 - 3:29	MIA	Mourning Foul Turnover (P3.T8)	28 22.7%	43 77.3%
Q2 - 3:46	NJN	Harris 13' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	28 20.4%	43 79.6%
Q2 - 4:04	MIA	Mourning Free Throw 1 of 1 (13 PTS)	26 19.9%	43 80.1%
Q2 - 4:04	MIA	Mourning Driving Layup (12 PTS)	26 21.8%	42 78.2%
Q2 - 4:26	MIA	Gill REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	26 23.8%	40 76.2%
Q2 - 4:28	NJN	MISS Van Horn 24' 3PT Jump Shot	26 24.4%	40 75.6%
Q2 - 4:54	MIA	Grant 17' Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Strickland 3 AST)	26 25.9%	40 74.1%
Q2 - 5:06	MIA	Grant REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)	26 28.8%	38 71.2%
Q2 - 5:09	MIA	MISS Jones 12' Jump Shot	26 30.6%	38 69.4%
Q2 - 5:29	NJN	Martin 12' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	26 28.8%	38 71.2%
Q2 - 5:43	NJN	MacCulloch REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	24 26.7%	38 73.3%
Q2 - 5:44	MIA	MISS Grant Free Throw 2 of 2	24 26.4%	38 73.6%
Q2 - 5:44	MIA	Grant Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	24 24.9%	38 75.1%
Q2 - 5:59	MIA	Grant REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	24 26.5%	37 73.5%
Q2 - 6:01	MIA	MISS Strickland 19' Jump Shot	24 29.4%	37 70.6%
Q2 - 6:20	MIA	Grant REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	24 27.5%	37 72.5%
Q2 - 6:22	MIA	MISS Strickland 8' Jump Shot	24 29.3%	37 70.7%
Q2 - 6:30	MIA	Jones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	24 27.4%	37 72.6%
Q2 - 6:33	NJN	MISS Williams 9' Jump Shot	24 28.2%	37 71.8%
Q2 - 6:54	MIA	Jump Ball Grant vs. Williams: Tip to Van Horn	24 30.1%	37 69.9%
Q2 - 7:21	NJN	Van Horn Dunk (2 PTS) (Kidd 4 AST)	24 29.0%	37 71.0%
Q2 - 7:41	MIA	Jackson 11' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	22 27.0%	37 73.0%
Q2 - 7:55	MIA	Ellis REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	22 28.9%	35 71.1%
Q2 - 7:57	MIA	MISS Jones 18' Jump Shot	22 30.6%	35 69.4%
Q2 - 8:07	MIA	Jackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	22 29.3%	35 70.7%
Q2 - 8:09	NJN	MISS Williams 8' Hook Shot	22 30.0%	35 70.0%
Q2 - 8:17	NJN	Kidd REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	22 31.8%	35 68.2%
Q2 - 8:20	MIA	MISS Jackson 17' Jump Shot	22 31.0%	35 69.0%
Q2 - 8:49	NJN	Kidd 16' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	22 29.3%	35 70.7%
Q2 - 8:56	MIA	Jones Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T6)	20 27.5%	35 72.5%
Q2 - 9:07	NJN	Mourning STEAL (2 STL)	20 26.1%	35 73.9%
Q2 - 9:23	MIA	Mourning 18' Jump Shot (10 PTS)	20 28.3%	35 71.7%
Q2 - 9:49	NJN	Kittles 17' Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Williams 1 AST)	20 30.1%	33 69.9%
Q2 - 10:07	NJN	Williams REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)	18 28.6%	33 71.4%
Q2 - 10:09	MIA	MISS Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot	18 27.9%	33 72.1%
Q2 - 10:27	NJN	Nets Turnover: Shot Clock (T#6)	18 26.3%	33 73.7%
Q2 - 10:27	NJN	Nets Rebound	18 28.6%	33 71.4%
Q2 - 10:27	NJN	Mourning BLOCK (2 BLK)	18 27.0%	33 73.0%
Q2 - 10:28	NJN	Williams REBOUND (Off:3 Def:0)	18 28.6%	33 71.4%
Q2 - 10:31	NJN	Mourning BLOCK (1 BLK)	18 27.0%	33 73.0%
Q2 - 11:02	MIA	Ellis Dunk (6 PTS) (Jackson 2 AST)	18 29.2%	33 70.8%
Q2 - 11:09	MIA	Mourning REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	18 31.3%	31 68.7%
Q2 - 11:11	NJN	MISS Williams 4' Jump Shot	18 31.9%	31 68.1%
Q2 - 11:12	NJN	Williams REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	18 33.3%	31 66.7%
Q2 - 11:15	NJN	MISS Harris 4' Jump Shot	18 31.9%	31 68.1%
Q2 - 11:32	MIA	Ellis 9' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	18 33.3%	31 66.7%
Q2 - 11:48	NJN	Williams REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	18 35.5%	29 64.5%
Q2 - 11:48	NJN	Williams Tip Shot (2 PTS)	18 35.5%	29 64.5%
Q2 - 11:50	NJN	MISS Kittles Reverse Layup	16 31.8%	29 68.2%
Q1 - 0:00.0	NJN		16 33.3%	29 66.7%
Q1 - 0:00.0	NJN	Nets Rebound	16 33.3%	29 66.7%
Q1 - 0:00.0	NJN	MISS Jefferson 40' 3PT Jump Shot	16 31.8%	29 68.2%
Q1 - 0:02.0	NJN	Collins REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	16 33.5%	29 66.5%
Q1 - 0:03.0	MIA	MISS House 7' Running Jump Shot	16 33.0%	29 67.0%
Q1 - 0:21.0	NJN	Kittles 7' Running Jump Shot (10 PTS)	16 31.9%	29 68.1%
Q1 - 0:25.0	NJN	Nets Rebound	14 29.4%	29 70.6%
Q1 - 0:26.0	NJN	Ellis BLOCK (1 BLK)	14 28.4%	29 71.6%
Q1 - 0:34.0	MIA	Ellis Layup (2 PTS)	14 29.4%	29 70.6%
Q1 - 0:36.0	MIA	Ellis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	14 31.9%	27 68.1%
Q1 - 0:37.0	MIA	MISS Mourning 8' Hook Shot	14 33.0%	27 67.0%
Q1 - 0:59.0	NJN	Collins Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	14 31.9%	27 68.1%
Q1 - 0:59.0	NJN	Collins Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	13 31.3%	27 68.7%
Q1 - 0:59.0	NJN	Nets Rebound	12 29.4%	27 70.6%
Q1 - 1:00	NJN	MISS Harris 24' 3PT Jump Shot	12 28.4%	27 71.6%
Q1 - 1:19	MIA	Mourning Dunk (8 PTS) (Jackson 1 AST)	12 29.7%	27 70.3%
Q1 - 1:25	MIA	Jackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	12 32.1%	25 67.9%
Q1 - 1:27	NJN	MISS Martin 6' Hook Shot	12 32.6%	25 67.4%
Q1 - 1:53	NJN	Kittles REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	12 33.7%	25 66.3%
Q1 - 1:55	MIA	MISS Gill 23' Jump Shot	12 33.2%	25 66.8%
Q1 - 2:27	NJN	Harris 15' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	12 32.5%	25 67.5%
Q1 - 2:47	NJN	Kittles REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	10 30.3%	25 69.7%
Q1 - 2:49	MIA	MISS Gill 19' Jump Shot	10 29.8%	25 70.2%
Q1 - 3:10	MIA	HEAT Rebound	10 29.5%	25 70.5%
Q1 - 3:12	NJN	MISS Martin 6' Jump Shot	10 30.2%	25 69.8%
Q1 - 3:28	MIA	Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Strickland 2 AST)	10 31.6%	25 68.4%
Q1 - 3:50	NJN	Kittles Alley Oop Dunk (8 PTS) (Martin 1 AST)	10 35.3%	22 64.7%
Q1 - 3:54	MIA	Strickland Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T5)	8 33.5%	22 66.5%
Q1 - 4:10	MIA	Grant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	8 32.0%	22 68.0%
Q1 - 4:12	NJN	MISS Kittles 25' 3PT Jump Shot	8 32.8%	22 67.2%
Q1 - 4:29	MIA	Gill 23' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Mourning 2 AST)	8 34.4%	22 65.6%
Q1 - 4:47	MIA	Grant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	8 36.0%	20 64.0%
Q1 - 4:49	NJN	MISS Martin 8' Hook Shot	8 36.7%	20 63.3%
Q1 - 5:13	MIA	Gill Reverse Layup (4 PTS) (Strickland 1 AST)	8 39.7%	20 60.3%
Q1 - 5:19	NJN	Mourning STEAL (1 STL)	8 41.5%	18 58.5%
Q1 - 5:40	MIA	Strickland 19' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Mourning 1 AST)	8 43.7%	18 56.3%
Q1 - 6:02	NJN	MacCulloch Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T4)	8 46.3%	16 53.7%
Q1 - 6:18	MIA	Mourning 16' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Gill 1 AST)	8 48.4%	16 51.6%
Q1 - 6:35	NJN	Kittles Dunk (6 PTS) (Kidd 3 AST)	8 50.3%	14 49.7%
Q1 - 6:39	MIA	Mourning Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T4)	6 48.4%	14 51.6%
Q1 - 7:05	NJN	Martin Dunk (2 PTS) (Kidd 2 AST)	6 47.5%	14 52.5%
Q1 - 7:09	MIA	Strickland Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T3)	4 45.8%	14 54.2%
Q1 - 7:26	NJN	Martin Out Of Bounds Turnover (P2.T3)	4 43.6%	14 56.4%
Q1 - 7:41	MIA	Strickland Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	4 45.7%	14 54.3%
Q1 - 7:41	MIA	Strickland Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	4 46.0%	13 54.0%
Q1 - 7:54	NJN	Kittles 19' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Kidd 1 AST)	4 47.3%	12 52.7%
Q1 - 8:12	MIA	Jones 20' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	2 46.4%	12 53.6%
Q1 - 8:29	MIA	Gill REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	2 48.0%	10 52.0%
Q1 - 8:31	NJN	MISS Van Horn 18' Jump Shot	2 48.7%	10 51.3%
Q1 - 8:58	MIA	Mourning Dunk (4 PTS) (Jones 2 AST)	2 50.1%	10 49.9%
Q1 - 9:00	MIA	Jones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	2 51.8%	8 48.2%
Q1 - 9:02	MIA	MISS Jones 4' Jump Shot	2 53.1%	8 46.9%
Q1 - 9:20	NJN	Kittles 4' Running Jump Shot (2 PTS)	2 51.5%	8 48.5%
Q1 - 9:31	MIA	Mourning 3 Second Violation Turnover (P1.T2)	0 50.1%	8 49.9%
Q1 - 9:38	MIA	Gill REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 47.7%	8 52.3%
Q1 - 9:40	NJN	MISS Kidd 17' Jump Shot	0 48.4%	8 51.6%
Q1 - 10:02	MIA	Mourning Reverse Dunk (2 PTS) (Jones 1 AST)	0 50.1%	8 49.9%
Q1 - 10:11	MIA	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 51.7%	6 48.3%
Q1 - 10:13	NJN	MISS Van Horn 14' Jump Shot	0 52.4%	6 47.6%
Q1 - 10:32	MIA	Jones Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	0 53.8%	6 46.2%
Q1 - 10:32	MIA	Jones Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	0 54.1%	5 45.9%
Q1 - 10:35	NJN	Jones STEAL (1 STL)	0 55.4%	4 44.6%
Q1 - 10:43	MIA	Gill Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)	0 57.5%	4 42.5%
Q1 - 10:52	MIA	Mourning REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 55.4%	4 44.6%
Q1 - 10:54	NJN	MISS Kidd 25' 3PT Jump Shot	0 56.1%	4 43.9%
Q1 - 11:15	MIA	Gill 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	0 57.5%	4 42.5%
Q1 - 11:32	NJN	Martin Traveling Turnover (P1.T1)	0 59.4%	2 40.6%
Q1 - 11:50	MIA	Strickland 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	0 61.1%	2 38.9%
Q1 - 12:00	MIA	Jump Ball Mourning vs. Van Horn: Tip to Strickland	0 62.9%	0 37.1%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

NJN

0.91 45.3%

MIA

1.10 54.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

NJN

52%

MIA

67%

Midrange

NJN

39%

MIA

45%

3PT | Effective 3PT

NJN

4.5

23%

35%

MIA

4.5

60%

90%

Free Throws

NJN

67%

MIA

68%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
K. Martin	19	56%	9.5 / 17
K. Kittles	14	58%	7.0 / 12
L. Harris	11	61%	5.5 / 9
K. Van Horn	9	35%	4.5 / 13
R. Jefferson	7	50%	3.5 / 7
J. Kidd	6	43%	3.0 / 7
T. MacCulloch	2	100%	1.0 / 1
J. Collins	2	25%	1.0 / 4
A. Williams	2	14%	1.0 / 7
B. Armstrong	2	100%	1.0 / 1
D. Marshall	2	100%	1.0 / 1
A. Johnson	1	50%	0.5 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Mourning	23	77%	11.5 / 15
E. Jones	20	59%	10.0 / 17
R. Strickland	11	50%	5.5 / 11
K. Gill	10	45%	5.0 / 11
B. Grant	9	45%	4.5 / 10
J. Jackson	9	75%	4.5 / 6
L. Ellis	8	57%	4.0 / 7
E. House	0	-	0.0 / 1
M. James	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

NJN

+15

-12

MIA

+14

-16

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

NJN

0.91 45.3%

MIA

1.10 54.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	100.8 96.1	NJN 95.1 +13.4 MIA 108.4
Pace	94.8 89.7	NJN 85.7 +7.0 MIA 78.7
Avg. Poss. Time	15.0 16.7	NJN 16.8 +1.5 MIA 18.3
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	47.6% 46.3%	NJN 43.0% MIA 54.6% +11.6%
TO %	14.9% 15.5%	NJN 13.7% +4.3% MIA 18.0%
ORB %	29.3% 26.7%	NJN 22.0% MIA 41.9% +19.9%
FTrt	28.0 26.8	NJN 33.8 MIA 43.1 +9.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	65.4% 59.4%	NJN 51.7% +4.6% MIA 47.1%
STL %	9.2% 7.4%	NJN 13.6% +5.2% MIA 8.4%
BLK %	8.9% 8.7%	NJN 6.7% MIA 10.3% +3.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.08 and 2.08.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	49.2% 47.7%	NJN 45.3% MIA 54.9% +9.6%
Rim FG%	57.6% 60.6%	NJN 52.0% MIA 66.7% +14.7%
Mid FG%	39.2% 38.0%	NJN 39.4% MIA 45.2% +5.8%
3P %	33.8% 34.7%	NJN 23.1% MIA 60.0% +36.9%
FT %	73.5% 72.4%	NJN 66.7% MIA 67.9% +1.2%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	34.8% 28.1%	NJN 35.2% +7.5% MIA 27.7%
Mid Att. %	47.6% 57.8%	NJN 46.5% +18.1% MIA 64.6%
3P Att. %	17.5% 14.1%	NJN 18.3% +10.6% MIA 7.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	NJN	MIA
Possessions	81	83
Possession Minutes	22.7	25.3
Points	77	90
Rebounds	27	45
Assists	15	16
Steals	11	7
Blocks	4	6
Turnovers (Team)	12 (1)	16 (1)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	9 (6)	13 (1)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	18 (2)	32 (1)
Field Goals	29-71	34-65
At-the-Rim FG	13-25	12-18
Midrange FG	13-33	19-42
2-Point FG	26-58	31-60
3-Point FG	3-13	3-5
Free Throws	16-24	19-28
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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8 New Jersey Nets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Kenyon Martin F · 6'9" 225 · 24	35.9	19	56%	3	1	0	0	3	2	3	0	6-8	75%	5-12	42%	1-1	100%
Jason Kidd G · 6'4" 210 · 29	34.7	6	43%	5	9	1	0	0	1	0	5	1-1	100%	1-4	25%	1-3	33%
Kerry Kittles G · 6'5" 185 · 28	32.2	14	58%	3	1	1	0	4	4	0	3	0-0	-	7-9	78%	0-3	0%
Keith Van Horn F · 6'10" 245 · 26	27.4	9	35%	2	0	2	0	1	0	2	0	3-4	75%	3-10	30%	0-2	0%
Todd MacCulloch C · 7'0" 280 · 26	15.6	2	100%	3	0	1	2	1	4	0	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Richard Jefferson F · 6'7" 233 · 22	25.5	7	50%	2	0	1	0	1	3	0	2	1-2	50%	3-5	60%	0-1	0%
Jason Collins C · 7'0" 255 · 23	24.5	2	25%	3	0	1	2	2	4	0	3	2-4	50%	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Lucious Harris G · 6'5" 205 · 31	22.1	11	61%	0	2	2	0	0	2	0	0	2-3	67%	3-5	60%	1-3	33%
Aaron Williams C-F · 6'9" 235 · 30	13.0	2	14%	5	1	2	0	0	2	3	2	0-0	-	1-7	14%	0-0	-
Anthony Johnson G · 6'3" 195 · 27	4.8	1	50%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Brandon Armstrong G · 6'5" 185 · 22	2.2	2	100%	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Donny Marshall F · 6'7" 230 · 30	2.2	2	100%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	77	45%	27	15	11	4	12	0	9	18	16-24	67%	26-58	45%	3-13	23%

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8 New Jersey Nets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Kenyon Martin F · 6'9" 225 · 24	35.9	19	56%	3	1	0	0	3	2	3	0	6-8	75%	5-12	42%	1-1	100%
Jason Kidd G · 6'4" 210 · 29	34.7	6	43%	5	9	1	0	0	1	0	5	1-1	100%	1-4	25%	1-3	33%
Kerry Kittles G · 6'5" 185 · 28	32.2	14	58%	3	1	1	0	4	4	0	3	0-0	-	7-9	78%	0-3	0%
Keith Van Horn F · 6'10" 245 · 26	27.4	9	35%	2	0	2	0	1	0	2	0	3-4	75%	3-10	30%	0-2	0%
Todd MacCulloch C · 7'0" 280 · 26	15.6	2	100%	3	0	1	2	1	4	0	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Richard Jefferson F · 6'7" 233 · 22	25.5	7	50%	2	0	1	0	1	3	0	2	1-2	50%	3-5	60%	0-1	0%
Jason Collins C · 7'0" 255 · 23	24.5	2	25%	3	0	1	2	2	4	0	3	2-4	50%	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Lucious Harris G · 6'5" 205 · 31	22.1	11	61%	0	2	2	0	0	2	0	0	2-3	67%	3-5	60%	1-3	33%
Aaron Williams C-F · 6'9" 235 · 30	13.0	2	14%	5	1	2	0	0	2	3	2	0-0	-	1-7	14%	0-0	-
Anthony Johnson G · 6'3" 195 · 27	4.8	1	50%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Brandon Armstrong G · 6'5" 185 · 22	2.2	2	100%	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Donny Marshall F · 6'7" 230 · 30	2.2	2	100%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	77	45%	27	15	11	4	12	0	9	18	16-24	67%	26-58	45%	3-13	23%

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23 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Eddie Jones G · 6'6" 200 · 30	37.0	20	59%	5	2	3	1	1	5	2	3	7-13	54%	2-7	29%	3-4	75%
Kendall Gill F · 6'5" 216 · 34	35.4	10	45%	6	2	2	0	2	3	0	6	0-0	-	5-10	50%	0-1	0%
Rod Strickland G · 6'3" 185 · 36	35.0	11	50%	1	7	0	0	4	2	0	1	3-3	100%	4-9	44%	0-0	-
Brian Grant F · 6'9" 254 · 30	33.3	9	45%	12	0	0	0	2	4	4	8	1-2	50%	4-9	44%	0-0	-
Alonzo Mourning C · 6'10" 261 · 32	32.9	23	77%	8	2	2	4	4	2	1	7	7-9	78%	8-10	80%	0-0	-
LaPhonso Ellis F · 6'8" 240 · 32	29.8	8	57%	7	1	0	1	1	2	6	1	0-0	-	4-7	57%	0-0	-
Jim Jackson F-G · 6'6" 220 · 31	25.7	9	75%	6	2	0	0	2	2	0	6	1-1	100%	4-5	80%	0-0	-
Eddie House G · 6'1" 190 · 24	8.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Mike James G · 6'2" 188 · 27	2.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Vladimir Stepania C · 7'1" 255 · 26
Malik Allen F · 6'10" 255 · 24
Chris Gatling F · 6'10" · 34
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	90	55%	45	16	7	6	16	0	13	32	19-28	68%	31-60	52%	3-5	60%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE