FinalWin Prob.pScore
2525%90
87
1175%98
92
ORTG#PossPace
MIA logo MIA
92.69486.2
ORL logo ORL
93.998107.7

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

MagicHeatQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

MagicHeatQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventMIAORL
Q4 - 0:00.0ORL87
0%
92
100%
Q4 - 0:05.0MIAMiller STEAL (1 STL)87
0.1%
92
99.9%
Q4 - 0:06.0ORLArmstrong Free Throw 2 of 2 (18 PTS)87
0.3%
92
99.7%
Q4 - 0:06.0ORLArmstrong Free Throw 1 of 2 (17 PTS)87
0.4%
91
99.6%
Q4 - 0:06.0MIAJones Layup (28 PTS)87
1.0%
90
99.0%
Q4 - 0:07.0MIAJones REBOUND (Off:4 Def:5)85
0.4%
90
99.6%
Q4 - 0:08.0MIAMcGrady BLOCK (2 BLK)85
0.2%
90
99.8%
Q4 - 0:09.0MIAJones REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)85
0.6%
90
99.4%
Q4 - 0:12.0MIAMISS Jackson 21' Jump Shot85
0.3%
90
99.7%
Q4 - 0:18.0MIAGill REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)85
0.9%
90
99.1%
Q4 - 0:18.0ORLMISS Miller Free Throw 2 of 285
0.7%
90
99.3%
Q4 - 0:18.0ORLMiller Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)85
0.4%
90
99.6%
Q4 - 0:19.0MIAGill Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T18)85
0.7%
89
99.3%
Q4 - 0:26.0MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:0 Def:11)85
3.0%
89
97.0%
Q4 - 0:27.0ORLMISS Miller 25' 3PT Jump Shot85
2.3%
89
97.7%
Q4 - 0:46.0MIAMourning Free Throw 2 of 2 (15 PTS)85
2.5%
89
97.5%
Q4 - 0:46.0MIAMISS Mourning Free Throw 1 of 284
2.0%
89
98.0%
Q4 - 0:58.0ORLMiller 25' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (McGrady 3 AST)84
3.3%
89
96.7%
Q4 - 1:19ORLGrant REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6)84
10.7%
86
89.3%
Q4 - 1:20ORLMISS Hudson 3PT Jump Shot84
15.8%
86
84.2%
Q4 - 1:39MIAMourning Slam Dunk (14 PTS) (Jackson 3 AST)84
11.8%
86
88.2%
Q4 - 1:45ORLHudson Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T11)82
8.2%
86
91.8%
Q4 - 1:59MIAMourning Slam Dunk (12 PTS) (Strickland 8 AST)82
5.0%
86
95.0%
Q4 - 2:21MIAJones REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)80
3.8%
86
96.2%
Q4 - 2:23ORLMISS Armstrong 24' 3PT Jump Shot80
3.1%
86
96.9%
Q4 - 2:43ORLMiller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:8)80
1.9%
86
98.1%
Q4 - 2:46MIAMISS Jones 26' 3PT Jump Shot80
2.4%
86
97.6%
Q4 - 2:57MIAJackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)80
4.6%
86
95.4%
Q4 - 2:59ORLMISS Hudson 25' 3PT Jump Shot80
3.8%
86
96.2%
Q4 - 3:14ORLHudson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)80
2.6%
86
97.4%
Q4 - 3:16MIAMISS Mourning 5' Jump Shot80
3.0%
86
97.0%
Q4 - 3:25MIAStrickland REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)80
4.6%
86
95.4%
Q4 - 3:27ORLMISS McGrady Layup80
3.8%
86
96.2%
Q4 - 3:41MIAJones Free Throw 1 of 1 (26 PTS)80
4.0%
86
96.0%
Q4 - 3:41MIAJones 15' Jump Shot (25 PTS)79
2.8%
86
97.2%
Q4 - 3:57ORLMiller 25' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (McGrady 2 AST)77
1.9%
86
98.1%
Q4 - 4:12ORLGrant REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)77
3.8%
83
96.2%
Q4 - 4:14MIAMISS Jones 23' Jump Shot77
4.3%
83
95.7%
Q4 - 4:28ORLArmstrong Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)77
5.5%
83
94.5%
Q4 - 4:28ORLArmstrong Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)77
5.8%
82
94.2%
Q4 - 4:40ORLMiller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7)77
7.6%
81
92.4%
Q4 - 4:41MIAMISS Strickland 15' Jump Shot77
8.5%
81
91.5%
Q4 - 4:46MIAStrickland REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)77
10.9%
81
89.1%
Q4 - 4:47MIAMISS Strickland 17' Jump Shot77
8.5%
81
91.5%
Q4 - 5:03ORLHudson 15' Turnaround Jump Shot (17 PTS)77
11.9%
81
88.1%
Q4 - 5:21ORLArmstrong REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)77
15.6%
79
84.4%
Q4 - 5:22MIAMISS Mourning 15' Jump Shot77
17.1%
79
82.9%
Q4 - 5:38MIAJackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)77
20.8%
79
79.2%
Q4 - 5:39ORLMISS McGrady Free Throw 2 of 277
20.1%
79
79.9%
Q4 - 5:39ORLMISS McGrady Free Throw 1 of 277
16.6%
79
83.4%
Q4 - 5:39ORLMAGIC Rebound77
15.6%
79
84.4%
Q4 - 5:40ORLMISS McGrady Tip Shot77
19.1%
79
80.9%
Q4 - 5:40ORLMcGrady REBOUND (Off:3 Def:8)77
15.6%
79
84.4%
Q4 - 5:41ORLMISS Hudson 9' Running Jump Shot77
19.1%
79
80.9%
Q4 - 5:59ORLGrant REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)77
15.6%
79
84.4%
Q4 - 6:00MIAMISS Jones 17' Turnaround Jump Shot77
17.1%
79
82.9%
Q4 - 6:15MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:0 Def:10)77
20.9%
79
79.1%
Q4 - 6:15ORLMISS Grant Free Throw 2 of 277
20.1%
79
79.9%
Q4 - 6:15ORLGrant Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)77
17.3%
79
82.7%
Q4 - 6:26ORLMcGrady REBOUND (Off:2 Def:8)77
20.2%
78
79.8%
Q4 - 6:27MIAMISS Mourning Free Throw 2 of 277
20.9%
78
79.1%
Q4 - 6:27MIAMourning Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)77
23.8%
78
76.2%
Q4 - 6:27MIAHeat Rebound76
20.9%
78
79.1%
Q4 - 6:27MIAMISS Jones 16' Jump Shot76
17.2%
78
82.8%
Q4 - 6:53ORLGrant 19' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Hudson 4 AST)76
20.9%
78
79.1%
Q4 - 7:06MIAJones Free Throw 2 of 2 (23 PTS)76
25.3%
76
74.7%
Q4 - 7:06MIAJones Free Throw 1 of 2 (22 PTS)75
24.6%
76
75.4%
Q4 - 7:06MIAJones REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)74
21.0%
76
79.0%
Q4 - 7:08ORLMISS Miller 25' 3PT Jump Shot74
19.5%
76
80.5%
Q4 - 7:12ORLGrant REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)74
16.3%
76
83.7%
Q4 - 7:16ORLMISS Miller 24' 3PT Jump Shot74
19.5%
76
80.5%
Q4 - 7:34ORLMiller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)74
16.3%
76
83.7%
Q4 - 7:36MIAMISS Jackson 2' Hook Shot74
17.6%
76
82.4%
Q4 - 7:59ORLHudson Free Throw 2 of 2 (15 PTS)74
21.0%
76
79.0%
Q4 - 7:59ORLHudson Free Throw 1 of 2 (14 PTS)74
21.6%
75
78.4%
Q4 - 8:06MIAJackson Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T17)74
25.7%
74
74.3%
Q4 - 8:24MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:0 Def:9)74
31.0%
74
69.0%
Q4 - 8:26ORLMISS Miller Layup74
29.3%
74
70.7%
Q4 - 8:44MIAGill Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)74
25.7%
74
74.3%
Q4 - 8:44MIAGill Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)73
24.4%
74
75.6%
Q4 - 9:02ORLMISS Hudson Free Throw 1 of 172
20.6%
74
79.4%
Q4 - 9:02ORLHudson Driving Layup (13 PTS)72
21.1%
74
78.9%
Q4 - 9:13ORLGarrity REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)72
25.2%
72
74.8%
Q4 - 9:15MIAMISS Jackson 8' Running Jump Shot72
26.7%
72
73.3%
Q4 - 9:58ORLMiller Foul Turnover (P2.T10)72
30.3%
72
69.7%
Q4 - 10:19MIAJackson 14' Jump Shot (6 PTS)72
25.1%
72
74.9%
Q4 - 10:50ORLReid 15' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Garrity 2 AST)70
21.3%
72
78.7%
Q4 - 11:12MIAEllis 17' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Strickland 7 AST)70
25.4%
70
74.6%
Q4 - 11:30ORLMiller 19' Turnaround Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Hudson 3 AST)68
21.7%
70
78.3%
Q4 - 11:43MIAJones Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T16)68
25.4%
68
74.6%
Q3 - 0:00.0MIA68
30.0%
68
70.0%
Q3 - 0:00.0MIAJones Free Throw Technical (21 PTS)68
30.0%
68
70.0%
Q3 - 0:00.0MIAJones REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)67
25.6%
68
74.4%
Q3 - 0:00.0ORLMISS Hudson Driving Layup67
24.3%
68
75.7%
Q3 - 0:03.0MIAHouse Foul Turnover (P2.T15)67
21.5%
68
78.5%
Q3 - 0:05.0ORLMiller Free Throw 2 of 2 (3 PTS)67
25.2%
68
74.8%
Q3 - 0:05.0ORLMISS Miller Free Throw 1 of 267
25.9%
67
74.1%
Q3 - 0:10.0ORLGarrity REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)67
25.2%
67
74.8%
Q3 - 0:12.0MIAMISS Jones 8' Running Jump Shot67
26.4%
67
73.6%
Q3 - 0:29.0ORLHudson 16' Jump Shot (11 PTS)67
29.3%
67
70.7%
Q3 - 0:38.0ORLReid REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)67
33.8%
65
66.2%
Q3 - 0:40.0MIAMISS Jackson 8' Turnaround Jump Shot67
35.2%
65
64.8%
Q3 - 0:58.0MIAHeat Rebound67
38.6%
65
61.4%
Q3 - 0:59.0ORLMISS Hudson 26' 3PT Jump Shot67
37.1%
65
62.9%
Q3 - 1:04ORLGarrity REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)67
32.7%
65
67.3%
Q3 - 1:06ORLMISS Hudson 21' Jump Shot67
35.9%
65
64.1%
Q3 - 1:19MIAHouse 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Jackson 2 AST)67
32.8%
65
67.2%
Q3 - 1:33ORLHudson Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)64
24.9%
65
75.1%
Q3 - 1:33ORLHudson Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)64
25.4%
64
74.6%
Q3 - 1:44MIAEllis Dunk (5 PTS) (Grant 2 AST)64
28.6%
63
71.4%
Q3 - 2:09ORLArmstrong Layup (14 PTS)62
24.4%
63
75.6%
Q3 - 2:14MIAArmstrong STEAL (4 STL)62
27.7%
61
72.3%
Q3 - 2:31ORLArmstrong Slam Dunk (12 PTS)62
32.0%
61
68.0%
Q3 - 2:35MIAArmstrong STEAL (3 STL)62
35.8%
59
64.2%
Q3 - 2:51ORLHudson Driving Layup (7 PTS)62
40.6%
59
59.4%
Q3 - 2:57ORLArmstrong Free Throw Technical (10 PTS)62
44.8%
57
55.2%
Q3 - 3:14MIAJackson 24' 3PT Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Strickland 6 AST)62
48.5%
56
51.5%
Q3 - 3:32MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7)59
39.9%
56
60.1%
Q3 - 3:34ORLMISS McGrady 25' 3PT Jump Shot59
38.5%
56
61.5%
Q3 - 3:58MIAStrickland Reverse Layup (11 PTS)59
35.4%
56
64.6%
Q3 - 4:14ORLArmstrong Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T9)57
30.9%
56
69.1%
Q3 - 4:18ORLArmstrong REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)57
26.9%
56
73.1%
Q3 - 4:20MIAMISS House 14' Jump Shot57
28.1%
56
71.9%
Q3 - 4:44ORLGarrity 22' Turnaround Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Hudson 2 AST)57
31.0%
56
69.0%
Q3 - 4:55MIAStrickland Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T12)57
34.3%
54
65.7%
Q3 - 5:22ORLArmstrong Reverse Dunk (9 PTS) (Hudson 1 AST)57
37.9%
54
62.1%
Q3 - 5:26MIAArmstrong STEAL (2 STL)57
41.6%
52
58.4%
Q3 - 5:39MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)57
46.1%
52
53.9%
Q3 - 5:41ORLMISS Garrity 15' Jump Shot57
44.7%
52
55.3%
Q3 - 5:57MIAStrickland 12' Running Jump Shot (9 PTS)57
41.6%
52
58.4%
Q3 - 6:18ORLMcGrady Slam Dunk (17 PTS) (Armstrong 6 AST)55
36.9%
52
63.1%
Q3 - 6:22MIAHudson STEAL (2 STL)55
40.4%
50
59.6%
Q3 - 6:42ORLMcGrady Free Throw 2 of 2 (15 PTS)55
44.7%
50
55.3%
Q3 - 6:42ORLMISS McGrady Free Throw 1 of 255
45.4%
49
54.6%
Q3 - 6:53ORLArmstrong REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)55
44.4%
49
55.6%
Q3 - 6:55ORLMISS Armstrong 25' 3PT Jump Shot55
47.4%
49
52.6%
Q3 - 6:59MIAGrant STEAL (1 STL)55
44.4%
49
55.6%
Q3 - 7:02MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)55
47.5%
49
52.5%
Q3 - 7:03ORLMISS McGrady 16' Jump Shot55
46.1%
49
53.9%
Q3 - 7:18ORLMcGrady REBOUND (Off:2 Def:7)55
43.1%
49
56.9%
Q3 - 7:20MIAMISS Jones 15' Jump Shot55
44.4%
49
55.6%
Q3 - 7:40ORLMcGrady 25' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Armstrong 5 AST)55
47.5%
49
52.5%
Q3 - 7:49ORLArmstrong REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)55
54.7%
46
45.3%
Q3 - 7:50MIAMISS Grant 18' Jump Shot55
56.1%
46
43.9%
Q3 - 8:17ORLGarrity 16' Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Armstrong 4 AST)55
57.9%
46
42.1%
Q3 - 8:25ORLMcGrady REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)55
61.1%
44
38.9%
Q3 - 8:27MIAMISS Gill 19' Jump Shot55
62.3%
44
37.7%
Q3 - 8:31MIAJones REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)55
65.1%
44
34.9%
Q3 - 8:32ORLMISS Grant Layup55
63.9%
44
36.1%
Q3 - 8:33ORLGrant REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)55
61.1%
44
38.9%
Q3 - 8:35ORLMISS McGrady Driving Layup55
63.9%
44
36.1%
Q3 - 8:44ORLMcGrady REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)55
61.1%
44
38.9%
Q3 - 8:46MIAMISS Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot55
62.4%
44
37.6%
Q3 - 8:53MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:8)55
65.2%
44
34.8%
Q3 - 8:54ORLMISS Hudson 9' Running Jump Shot55
64.0%
44
36.0%
Q3 - 9:09MIAGill Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T8)55
59.2%
44
40.8%
Q3 - 9:23MIAHeat Rebound55
62.8%
44
37.2%
Q3 - 9:24ORLMISS Garrity 26' 3PT Jump Shot55
61.8%
44
38.2%
Q3 - 9:46MIAGill 15' Jump Shot (4 PTS)55
59.3%
44
40.7%
Q3 - 10:04MIAStrickland REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)53
54.1%
44
45.9%
Q3 - 10:06ORLMISS Garrity 26' 3PT Jump Shot53
52.9%
44
47.1%
Q3 - 10:21ORLArmstrong REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)53
50.2%
44
49.8%
Q3 - 10:22MIAMISS Mourning 12' Jump Shot53
51.4%
44
48.6%
Q3 - 10:34MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)53
54.2%
44
45.8%
Q3 - 10:36ORLMISS Miller 3PT Jump Shot53
53.0%
44
47.0%
Q3 - 10:47MIAJones Driving Layup (20 PTS)53
50.3%
44
49.7%
Q3 - 11:01ORLGarrity Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T8)51
45.4%
44
54.6%
Q3 - 11:17ORLGrant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)51
42.0%
44
58.0%
Q3 - 11:19MIAMISS Mourning Layup51
43.0%
44
57.0%
Q3 - 11:35MIAStrickland REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)51
45.6%
44
54.4%
Q3 - 11:36ORLMISS McGrady 17' Turnaround Jump Shot51
44.5%
44
55.5%
Q2 - 0:00.0ORL51
42.0%
44
58.0%
Q2 - 0:00.0ORLMAGIC Rebound51
42.0%
44
58.0%
Q2 - 0:02.0ORLMISS Hudson 8' Running Jump Shot51
43.1%
44
56.9%
Q2 - 0:06.0MIAStrickland 19' Jump Shot (7 PTS)51
41.6%
44
58.4%
Q2 - 0:26.0MIAStepania REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)49
37.5%
44
62.5%
Q2 - 0:27.0ORLMISS McGrady Free Throw 2 of 249
37.2%
44
62.8%
Q2 - 0:27.0ORLMISS McGrady Free Throw 1 of 249
35.0%
44
65.0%
Q2 - 0:41.0MIAStrickland Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)49
35.3%
44
64.7%
Q2 - 0:41.0MIAMISS Strickland Free Throw 1 of 248
34.7%
44
65.3%
Q2 - 0:46.0ORLMcGrady Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T7)48
34.5%
44
65.5%
Q2 - 1:04MIAJones 22' Jump Shot (18 PTS)48
32.3%
44
67.7%
Q2 - 1:20MIAEllis REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)46
28.3%
44
71.7%
Q2 - 1:23ORLMISS Miller 3PT Jump Shot46
27.9%
44
72.1%
Q2 - 1:45MIAStepania Driving Layup (2 PTS)46
27.0%
44
73.0%
Q2 - 1:49ORLArmstrong Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T6)44
23.4%
44
76.6%
Q2 - 2:04ORLMiller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)44
21.6%
44
78.4%
Q2 - 2:07MIAMISS Stepania 18' Jump Shot44
22.2%
44
77.8%
Q2 - 2:24ORLGrant Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)44
23.6%
44
76.4%
Q2 - 2:24ORLGrant Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)44
24.2%
43
75.8%
Q2 - 2:25ORLGrant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)44
26.2%
42
73.8%
Q2 - 2:26MIAGrant BLOCK (1 BLK)44
26.9%
42
73.1%
Q2 - 2:43MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7)44
28.4%
42
71.6%
Q2 - 2:45ORLMISS Armstrong 25' 3PT Jump Shot44
27.8%
42
72.2%
Q2 - 2:55ORLMcGrady REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)44
26.2%
42
73.8%
Q2 - 2:57MIAMISS Ellis 17' Jump Shot44
26.9%
42
73.1%
Q2 - 3:15MIAEllis REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)44
28.0%
42
72.0%
Q2 - 3:16ORLMISS Armstrong 15' Running Jump Shot44
27.2%
42
72.8%
Q2 - 3:32MIAJones 20' Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Strickland 5 AST)44
25.4%
42
74.6%
Q2 - 3:53ORLGarrity 25' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Armstrong 3 AST)42
23.5%
42
76.5%
Q2 - 4:05ORLMAGIC Rebound42
27.2%
39
72.8%
Q2 - 4:06ORLMISS McGrady 23' Jump Shot42
28.8%
39
71.2%
Q2 - 4:29MIAStrickland 19' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Mourning 2 AST)42
27.2%
39
72.8%
Q2 - 4:47MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)40
25.0%
39
75.0%
Q2 - 4:48ORLMISS Garrity 19' Jump Shot40
24.3%
39
75.7%
Q2 - 5:01MIAGrant Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)40
22.5%
39
77.5%
Q2 - 5:01MIAGrant Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)39
22.3%
39
77.7%
Q2 - 5:22ORLArmstrong Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)38
20.8%
39
79.2%
Q2 - 5:22ORLArmstrong Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)38
21.0%
38
79.0%
Q2 - 5:32MIAEllis 6' Hook Shot (3 PTS)38
22.6%
37
77.4%
Q2 - 5:34MIAEllis REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)36
20.8%
37
79.2%
Q2 - 5:36MIAMcGrady BLOCK (1 BLK)36
19.4%
37
80.6%
Q2 - 6:01ORLGarrity 25' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Grant 2 AST)36
20.8%
37
79.2%
Q2 - 6:09ORLGrant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)36
24.2%
34
75.8%
Q2 - 6:12MIAMISS Mourning 5' Jump Shot36
25.0%
34
75.0%
Q2 - 6:28ORLMcGrady Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)36
26.7%
34
73.3%
Q2 - 6:28ORLMISS McGrady Free Throw 1 of 236
27.1%
33
72.9%
Q2 - 6:42MIAJones Foul Turnover (P3.T7)36
26.3%
33
73.7%
Q2 - 6:56MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)36
29.0%
33
71.0%
Q2 - 6:59ORLMISS Grant 17' Jump Shot36
28.1%
33
71.9%
Q2 - 7:16MIAJones Reverse Layup (14 PTS)36
26.1%
33
73.9%
Q2 - 7:18MIAJones REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)34
24.3%
33
75.7%
Q2 - 7:21MIAMISS Jones 19' Jump Shot34
22.9%
33
77.1%
Q2 - 7:35ORLMcGrady Free Throw 1 of 1 (10 PTS)34
24.3%
33
75.7%
Q2 - 7:35ORLMcGrady 20' Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Garrity 1 AST)34
26.3%
32
73.7%
Q2 - 7:58MIAGill 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Mourning 1 AST)34
28.2%
30
71.8%
Q2 - 8:17ORLMISS Williams Free Throw 1 of 132
25.8%
30
74.2%
Q2 - 8:17ORLWilliams 3' Jump Shot (2 PTS)32
26.1%
30
73.9%
Q2 - 8:27ORLGrant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)32
27.9%
28
72.1%
Q2 - 8:29MIAMISS House 26' 3PT Jump Shot32
28.6%
28
71.4%
Q2 - 8:49MIAJackson Free Throw Technical (1 PTS)32
30.3%
28
69.7%
Q2 - 8:49MIAHeat Rebound31
28.2%
28
71.8%
Q2 - 8:51ORLMISS Hudson 26' 3PT Jump Shot31
27.5%
28
72.5%
Q2 - 9:02ORLGarrity REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)31
25.4%
28
74.6%
Q2 - 9:04MIAMISS House 24' 3PT Jump Shot31
26.1%
28
73.9%
Q2 - 9:23MIAHouse REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)31
27.7%
28
72.3%
Q2 - 9:24ORLMISS Garrity 26' 3PT Jump Shot31
27.0%
28
73.0%
Q2 - 9:44ORLGarrity REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)31
25.5%
28
74.5%
Q2 - 9:45MIAEllis REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)31
27.7%
28
72.3%
Q2 - 9:45MIAMISS Ellis Tip Shot31
26.1%
28
73.9%
Q2 - 9:47MIAMISS Ellis Layup31
26.1%
28
73.9%
Q2 - 9:51MIAJones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)31
27.7%
28
72.3%
Q2 - 9:53MIAMISS Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot31
26.1%
28
73.9%
Q2 - 9:58MIAEllis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)31
27.7%
28
72.3%
Q2 - 10:00ORLMISS Garrity 19' Jump Shot31
27.0%
28
73.0%
Q2 - 10:24MIAJones 18' Jump Shot (12 PTS)31
25.5%
28
74.5%
Q2 - 10:39MIAEllis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)29
23.8%
28
76.2%
Q2 - 10:41ORLMISS McGrady 11' Turnaround Jump Shot29
23.2%
28
76.8%
Q2 - 10:55ORLMAGIC Rebound29
21.9%
28
78.1%
Q2 - 10:56MIAMISS Jackson 20' Jump Shot29
22.5%
28
77.5%
Q2 - 11:16ORLHudson 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (McGrady 1 AST)29
23.2%
28
76.8%
Q2 - 11:33MIAWilliams STEAL (1 STL)29
26.9%
25
73.1%
Q2 - 11:46ORLMiller Foul Turnover (P1.T5)29
28.9%
25
71.1%
Q1 - 0:00.0MIA29
26.9%
25
73.1%
Q1 - 0:00.0MIAEllis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)29
28.9%
25
71.1%
Q1 - 0:01.0ORLMISS Hudson 20' Jump Shot29
27.8%
25
72.2%
Q1 - 0:16.0MIAHouse Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)29
26.8%
25
73.2%
Q1 - 0:16.0MIAHouse Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)28
26.4%
25
73.6%
Q1 - 0:21.0ORLHudson Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T4)27
24.5%
25
75.5%
Q1 - 0:31.0ORLMAGIC Rebound27
23.2%
25
76.8%
Q1 - 0:32.0MIAMISS Ellis 3PT Jump Shot27
23.6%
25
76.4%
Q1 - 0:49.0ORLHudson Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)27
24.5%
25
75.5%
Q1 - 0:49.0MIAJones Free Throw Technical (10 PTS)27
24.9%
24
75.1%
Q1 - 0:49.0MIAJones Free Throw Technical (9 PTS)26
23.2%
24
76.8%
Q1 - 0:49.0ORLHudson Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)25
21.4%
24
78.6%
Q1 - 0:52.0MIAHudson STEAL (1 STL)25
23.2%
23
76.8%
Q1 - 0:58.0MIAHouse REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)25
24.5%
23
75.5%
Q1 - 1:00ORLMISS Miller Driving Layup25
24.1%
23
75.9%
Q1 - 1:07MIAMcGrady STEAL (2 STL)25
23.2%
23
76.8%
Q1 - 1:17MIAJones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)25
24.5%
23
75.5%
Q1 - 1:19ORLMISS Hudson 25' 3PT Jump Shot25
24.1%
23
75.9%
Q1 - 1:25MIAMcGrady STEAL (1 STL)25
23.2%
23
76.8%
Q1 - 1:42MIAHeat Rebound25
24.5%
23
75.5%
Q1 - 1:43ORLMISS McGrady 26' 3PT Jump Shot25
24.1%
23
75.9%
Q1 - 1:49ORLHudson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)25
23.2%
23
76.8%
Q1 - 1:51MIAMISS Mourning 7' Hook Shot25
23.6%
23
76.4%
Q1 - 2:09MIAJackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)25
24.6%
23
75.4%
Q1 - 2:11ORLMISS Reid Free Throw 2 of 225
24.4%
23
75.6%
Q1 - 2:11ORLReid Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)25
23.3%
23
76.7%
Q1 - 2:23ORLMiller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)25
24.7%
22
75.3%
Q1 - 2:24MIAMISS Strickland 19' Jump Shot25
25.2%
22
74.8%
Q1 - 2:40ORLReid 5' Hook Shot (2 PTS) (Miller 5 AST)25
26.4%
22
73.6%
Q1 - 2:57MIAGrant 16' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Jackson 1 AST)25
28.3%
20
71.7%
Q1 - 3:22ORLMcGrady 22' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Miller 4 AST)23
26.0%
20
74.0%
Q1 - 3:29MIAStrickland Traveling Turnover (P1.T2)23
27.6%
18
72.4%
Q1 - 3:32ORLGrant Dunk (2 PTS) (Miller 3 AST)23
29.6%
18
70.4%
Q1 - 3:51ORLMcGrady REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)23
31.4%
16
68.6%
Q1 - 3:52MIAMISS Ellis Free Throw 2 of 223
31.6%
16
68.4%
Q1 - 3:52MIAEllis Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)23
32.8%
16
67.2%
Q1 - 3:52MIAEllis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)22
31.6%
16
68.4%
Q1 - 3:53MIAMISS Strickland 10' Running Jump Shot22
30.1%
16
69.9%
Q1 - 4:01MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)22
30.9%
16
69.1%
Q1 - 4:03ORLMISS Miller 26' 3PT Jump Shot22
30.2%
16
69.8%
Q1 - 4:07MIAArmstrong STEAL (1 STL)22
28.7%
16
71.3%
Q1 - 4:27ORLArmstrong Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)22
30.9%
16
69.1%
Q1 - 4:27ORLArmstrong Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)22
31.2%
15
68.8%
Q1 - 4:43MIAJones Driving Dunk (8 PTS)22
32.4%
14
67.6%
Q1 - 4:47ORLGrant Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T3)20
30.9%
14
69.1%
Q1 - 4:57MIAStrickland 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Jones 1 AST)20
28.7%
14
71.3%
Q1 - 5:08MIAStrickland REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)18
26.3%
14
73.7%
Q1 - 5:09MIAMISS Jackson 21' Jump Shot18
25.1%
14
74.9%
Q1 - 5:29MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)18
26.4%
14
73.6%
Q1 - 5:32ORLMISS Armstrong 20' Jump Shot18
25.8%
14
74.2%
Q1 - 5:48MIAJones 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Strickland 4 AST)18
24.6%
14
75.4%
Q1 - 6:06ORLGarrity 17' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Armstrong 2 AST)15
21.4%
14
78.6%
Q1 - 6:20ORLMcGrady REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)15
22.7%
12
77.3%
Q1 - 6:21MIAMISS Mourning Free Throw 2 of 215
22.9%
12
77.1%
Q1 - 6:21MIAMourning Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)15
23.7%
12
76.3%
Q1 - 6:40MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)14
22.8%
12
77.2%
Q1 - 6:43ORLMISS McGrady 26' 3PT Jump Shot14
22.3%
12
77.7%
Q1 - 6:54MIAMourning 8' Hook Shot (8 PTS) (Strickland 3 AST)14
21.3%
12
78.7%
Q1 - 7:05MIAJones Free Throw Technical (3 PTS)12
19.8%
12
80.2%
Q1 - 7:25ORLMiller Slam Dunk (2 PTS)11
18.6%
12
81.4%
Q1 - 7:31ORLMiller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)11
19.7%
10
80.3%
Q1 - 7:32MIAMISS Gill 21' Jump Shot11
20.1%
10
79.9%
Q1 - 7:34MIAStrickland REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)11
21.0%
10
79.0%
Q1 - 7:37MIAMISS Strickland Driving Layup11
20.1%
10
79.9%
Q1 - 7:52ORLMcGrady Reverse Layup (5 PTS) (Grant 1 AST)11
21.0%
10
79.0%
Q1 - 8:04ORLMiller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)11
21.9%
8
78.1%
Q1 - 8:05MIAMISS Grant 17' Jump Shot11
22.4%
8
77.6%
Q1 - 8:17MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)11
23.4%
8
76.6%
Q1 - 8:19ORLMISS Miller 4' Running Jump Shot11
23.0%
8
77.0%
Q1 - 8:29MIAGrant Free Throw 2 of 2 (3 PTS)11
21.9%
8
78.1%
Q1 - 8:29MIAMISS Grant Free Throw 1 of 210
21.8%
8
78.2%
Q1 - 8:42ORLGarrity 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Miller 2 AST)10
22.1%
8
77.9%
Q1 - 8:51ORLMcGrady REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)10
23.3%
6
76.7%
Q1 - 8:53MIAMISS Gill 20' Jump Shot10
23.7%
6
76.3%
Q1 - 9:06ORLMcGrady 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Armstrong 1 AST)10
24.7%
6
75.3%
Q1 - 9:20MIAMourning Dunk (6 PTS) (Grant 1 AST)10
27.3%
3
72.7%
Q1 - 9:34MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)8
26.2%
3
73.8%
Q1 - 9:34ORLMISS Grant Free Throw 2 of 28
25.9%
3
74.1%
Q1 - 9:34ORLMISS Grant Free Throw 1 of 28
25.1%
3
74.9%
Q1 - 9:37ORLMcGrady REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)8
24.4%
3
75.6%
Q1 - 9:39ORLMISS McGrady Dunk8
25.6%
3
74.4%
Q1 - 9:46MIAJones Layup (2 PTS) (Gill 2 AST)8
24.4%
3
75.6%
Q1 - 9:53ORLMcGrady Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T2)6
23.4%
3
76.6%
Q1 - 10:07MIAMourning Dunk (4 PTS) (Strickland 2 AST)6
21.6%
3
78.4%
Q1 - 10:19MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)4
20.5%
3
79.5%
Q1 - 10:21ORLMISS Grant 19' Jump Shot4
20.1%
3
79.9%
Q1 - 10:27ORLMAGIC Rebound4
19.2%
3
80.8%
Q1 - 10:28ORLMISS Grant Layup4
20.1%
3
79.9%
Q1 - 10:35ORLMiller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)4
19.2%
3
80.8%
Q1 - 10:36MIAMISS Mourning 15' Turnaround Jump Shot4
19.6%
3
80.4%
Q1 - 10:50ORLArmstrong 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Miller 1 AST)4
20.6%
3
79.4%
Q1 - 11:04MIAGrant 5' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Strickland 1 AST)4
22.9%
0
77.1%
Q1 - 11:22ORLArmstrong Out Of Bounds Turnover (P1.T1)2
21.5%
0
78.5%
Q1 - 11:25ORLMcGrady REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)2
20.4%
0
79.6%
Q1 - 11:26ORLMISS Miller 16' Jump Shot2
21.2%
0
78.8%
Q1 - 11:44MIAMourning 5' Hook Shot (2 PTS) (Gill 1 AST)2
20.4%
0
79.6%
Q1 - 12:00ORLJump Ball Grant vs. Mourning: Tip to Strickland0
19.2%
0
80.8%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIA
0.99 49.4%
ORL
0.93 46.5%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
MIA
14
22
64%
ORL
11
21
52%
Midrange
MIA
15
44
34%
ORL
11
28
39%
3PT | Effective 3PT
MIA
3
4.5
9
33%
50%
ORL
8
12.0
28
29%
43%
Free Throws
MIA
20
26
77%
ORL
24
38
63%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
MIA logo Heat
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
E. Jones2864%14.0 / 22
A. Mourning1544%7.5 / 17
R. Strickland1150%5.5 / 11
B. Grant758%3.5 / 6
L. Ellis739%3.5 / 9
K. Gill660%3.0 / 5
J. Jackson638%3.0 / 8
E. House550%2.5 / 5
V. Stepania250%1.0 / 2
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
ORL logo Magic
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
D. Armstrong1869%9.0 / 13
T. McGrady1739%8.5 / 22
T. Hudson1743%8.5 / 20
P. Garrity1458%7.0 / 12
M. Miller1238%6.0 / 16
H. Grant739%3.5 / 9
D. Reid583%2.5 / 3
M. Williams250%1.0 / 2
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

MIA
75
+11
-19
86
ORL
87
+12
-11
99
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA
0.99 49.4%
ORL
0.93 46.5%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
96.1
104.4
MIA 92.6
ORL 93.9 +1.3
Pace
89.7
95.6
MIA 86.2
ORL 107.7 +21.5
Avg. Poss. Time
16.7
14.6
MIA 16.7
ORL 13.4 +3.3
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
46.3%
49.3%
MIA 44.7% +0.5%
ORL 44.2%
TO %
15.5%
13.7%
MIA 18.0%
ORL 10.5% +7.5%
ORB %
26.7%
26.4%
MIA 23.3% +6.3%
ORL 17.0%
FTrt
26.8
27.8
MIA 34.7
ORL 49.4 +14.7
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
59.4%
58.4%
MIA 56.3%
ORL 73.3% +17.0%
STL %
7.4%
8.4%
MIA 6.4%
ORL 11.2% +4.8%
BLK %
8.7%
6.8%
MIA 8.2% +3.7%
ORL 4.5%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.08 and 2.08.

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
47.7%
50.9%
MIA 49.4% +2.9%
ORL 46.5%
Rim FG%
60.6%
57.9%
MIA 63.6% +11.2%
ORL 52.4%
Mid FG%
38.0%
38.6%
MIA 34.1%
ORL 39.3% +5.2%
3P %
34.7%
37.3%
MIA 33.3% +4.7%
ORL 28.6%
FT %
72.4%
75.4%
MIA 76.9% +13.7%
ORL 63.2%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
28.1%
33.5%
MIA 29.3% +2.1%
ORL 27.3%
Mid Att. %
57.8%
42.4%
MIA 58.7%
ORL 36.4% +22.3%
3P Att. %
14.1%
24.1%
MIA 12.0%
ORL 36.4% +24.4%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.
Game TotalsMIAORL
Possessions9498
Possession Minutes26.221.8
Points8792
Rebounds4941
Assists1822
Steals611
Blocks43
Turnovers (Team)19 (0)11 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)10 (1)8 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)39 (4)33 (2)
Field Goals32-7530-77
At-the-Rim FG14-2211-21
Midrange FG15-4411-28
2-Point FG29-6622-49
3-Point FG3-98-28
Free Throws20-2624-38
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
G · 6'6" 200 · 30
42.4
28
64%
9
1
2
1
4
5
4
5
7-7
100%
9-16
56%
1-4
25%
G · 6'3" 185 · 36
39.8
11
50%
6
8
1
0
4
1
3
3
1-2
50%
5-10
50%
0-0
-
C · 6'10" 261 · 32
36.9
15
44%
11
2
0
2
3
5
0
11
3-6
50%
6-14
43%
0-0
-
F · 6'9" 254 · 30
31.8
7
58%
8
2
0
0
0
2
0
8
3-4
75%
2-4
50%
0-0
-
F · 6'5" 216 · 34
22.3
6
60%
1
2
1
0
3
5
0
1
2-2
100%
2-5
40%
0-0
-
F-G · 6'6" 220 · 31
27.2
6
38%
3
3
1
0
3
4
0
3
1-1
100%
1-7
14%
1-1
100%
F · 6'8" 240 · 32
24.4
7
39%
8
0
0
1
0
5
3
5
1-2
50%
3-7
43%
0-1
0%
G · 6'1" 190 · 24
12.8
5
50%
2
0
0
0
2
2
0
2
2-2
100%
0-1
0%
1-3
33%
C · 7'1" 255 · 26
2.4
2
50%
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
0-0
-
1-2
50%
0-0
-
G · 6'2" 188 · 27
F · 6'10" · 34
F · 6'10" 255 · 24
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
87
49%
49
18
6
4
19
0
10
39
20-26
77%
29-66
44%
3-9
33%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.