FinalWin Prob.pScore
1657%94
104
2843%91
94
ORTG#PossPace
DAL logo DAL
113.09295.0
MIA logo MIA
102.29289.2

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

HeatMavericksQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

HeatMavericksQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventDALMIA
Q4 - 0:00.0DAL104
100%
94
0%
Q4 - 0:14.0MIACarter Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T12)104
99.9%
94
0.1%
Q4 - 0:20.0MIAGatling REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)104
99.9%
94
0.1%
Q4 - 0:23.0DALMISS Howard Layup104
99.9%
94
0.1%
Q4 - 0:45.0MIAMourning Dunk (12 PTS) (Jones 4 AST)104
99.9%
94
0.1%
Q4 - 0:58.0DALFinley 24' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Griffin 3 AST)104
99.9%
92
0.1%
Q4 - 1:19MIAJones Free Throw 2 of 2 (22 PTS)101
99.6%
92
0.4%
Q4 - 1:19MIAJones Free Throw 1 of 2 (21 PTS)101
99.6%
91
0.4%
Q4 - 1:19MIAJones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)101
99.7%
90
0.3%
Q4 - 1:20MIAMISS Strickland Layup101
99.8%
90
0.2%
Q4 - 1:25DALJones STEAL (2 STL)101
99.7%
90
0.3%
Q4 - 1:43DALFinley REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)101
99.7%
90
0.3%
Q4 - 1:45MIAMISS House 19' Jump Shot101
99.7%
90
0.3%
Q4 - 1:49MIAHouse REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)101
99.5%
90
0.5%
Q4 - 1:51DALMISS Nowitzki 17' Jump Shot101
99.6%
90
0.4%
Q4 - 2:12DALMavericks Rebound101
99.7%
90
0.3%
Q4 - 2:12MIAMISS Jones 14' Jump Shot101
99.6%
90
0.4%
Q4 - 2:23DALFinley Tip Shot (12 PTS)101
99.4%
90
0.6%
Q4 - 2:24DALFinley REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)99
99.2%
90
0.8%
Q4 - 2:27DALMISS Griffin 20' Jump Shot99
98.8%
90
1.2%
Q4 - 2:29DALFinley REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)99
99.2%
90
0.8%
Q4 - 2:32DALGatling BLOCK (1 BLK)99
98.8%
90
1.2%
Q4 - 3:01MIAStrickland Driving Layup (14 PTS)99
98.8%
90
1.2%
Q4 - 3:13MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)99
99.1%
88
0.9%
Q4 - 3:18DALMISS Nash 8' Running Jump Shot99
99.2%
88
0.8%
Q4 - 3:33DALGriffin REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)99
98.8%
88
1.2%
Q4 - 3:35DALMISS Finley 20' Jump Shot99
98.5%
88
1.5%
Q4 - 4:01MIAStrickland Driving Layup (12 PTS)99
99.0%
88
1.0%
Q4 - 4:06DALStrickland STEAL (1 STL)99
99.3%
86
0.7%
Q4 - 4:26MIAGatling 15' Fadeaway Jumper (8 PTS) (Carter 12 AST)99
99.5%
86
0.5%
Q4 - 4:40MIAHEAT Rebound99
99.7%
84
0.3%
Q4 - 4:43MIAMISS Gatling 4' Hook Shot99
99.7%
84
0.3%
Q4 - 4:55DALFinley 15' Jump Shot (10 PTS)99
99.7%
84
0.3%
Q4 - 5:16MIAMISS Gatling Free Throw 1 of 197
99.1%
84
0.9%
Q4 - 5:16MIAGatling Driving Layup (6 PTS)97
99.2%
84
0.8%
Q4 - 5:34DALNash 25' 3PT Jump Shot (22 PTS) (Griffin 2 AST)97
99.4%
82
0.6%
Q4 - 5:54MIAMourning 5' Hook Shot (10 PTS) (Carter 11 AST)94
98.9%
82
1.1%
Q4 - 6:06DALGriffin Foul Turnover (P1.T10)94
98.7%
80
1.3%
Q4 - 6:16MIAMourning Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)94
99.1%
80
0.9%
Q4 - 6:16MIAMISS Mourning Free Throw 1 of 294
99.2%
79
0.8%
Q4 - 6:38DALNash 16' Jump Shot (19 PTS)94
99.1%
79
0.9%
Q4 - 6:57MIAGatling Layup (4 PTS) (Strickland 5 AST)92
98.8%
79
1.2%
Q4 - 7:09DALGriffin 22' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Howard 3 AST)92
98.7%
77
1.3%
Q4 - 7:24DALNash REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)90
98.3%
77
1.7%
Q4 - 7:26MIAMISS Gatling Tip Shot90
98.1%
77
1.9%
Q4 - 7:28MIAGatling REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)90
97.7%
77
2.3%
Q4 - 7:32MIAMISS Gatling Layup90
98.2%
77
1.8%
Q4 - 7:44DALNash Free Throw 2 of 2 (17 PTS)90
97.7%
77
2.3%
Q4 - 7:44DALNash Free Throw 1 of 2 (16 PTS)89
97.7%
77
2.3%
Q4 - 7:55MIAStrickland Free Throw 1 of 1 (10 PTS)88
97.1%
77
2.9%
Q4 - 7:55MIAStrickland Driving Layup (9 PTS)88
97.8%
76
2.2%
Q4 - 8:12DALNowitzki 6' Jump Shot (33 PTS) (Howard 2 AST)88
97.7%
74
2.3%
Q4 - 8:24MIAHouse 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Marks 1 AST)86
97.1%
74
2.9%
Q4 - 8:41DALHoward Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS)86
98.2%
71
1.8%
Q4 - 8:41DALHoward Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)85
98.2%
71
1.8%
Q4 - 8:50MIAHouse Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T11)84
97.8%
71
2.2%
Q4 - 8:57DALJones STEAL (1 STL)84
97.1%
71
2.9%
Q4 - 9:22MIAHouse 16' Jump Shot (4 PTS)84
97.3%
71
2.7%
Q4 - 9:25MIAGatling REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)84
97.8%
69
2.2%
Q4 - 9:26MIAMISS Marks Free Throw 2 of 284
98.3%
69
1.7%
Q4 - 9:26MIAMISS Marks Free Throw 1 of 284
98.0%
69
2.0%
Q4 - 9:47DALNowitzki Layup (31 PTS)84
97.8%
69
2.2%
Q4 - 9:50DALNowitzki REBOUND (Off:2 Def:8)82
97.3%
69
2.7%
Q4 - 9:53DALMISS Nowitzki Layup82
96.8%
69
3.2%
Q4 - 10:06MIAStrickland Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)82
96.7%
69
3.3%
Q4 - 10:06MIAStrickland Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)82
96.9%
68
3.1%
Q4 - 10:22DALNowitzki Layup (29 PTS) (Howard 1 AST)82
97.4%
67
2.6%
Q4 - 10:26MIAGatling Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T10)80
96.8%
67
3.2%
Q4 - 10:45DALMavericks Turnover: Backcourt (T#8)80
95.9%
67
4.1%
Q4 - 10:58DALGriffin REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)80
96.8%
67
3.2%
Q4 - 11:01MIAMISS Marks 17' Jump Shot80
95.9%
67
4.1%
Q4 - 11:22DALHoward Dunk (11 PTS) (Nash 9 AST)80
95.3%
67
4.7%
Q4 - 11:38DALNowitzki REBOUND (Off:1 Def:8)78
94.3%
67
5.7%
Q4 - 11:40MIAMISS Strickland Free Throw 2 of 278
94.1%
67
5.9%
Q4 - 11:40MIAMISS Strickland Free Throw 1 of 278
93.3%
67
6.7%
Q4 - 11:45DALHouse STEAL (1 STL)78
93.0%
67
7.0%
Q3 - 0:00.0MIA78
94.3%
67
5.7%
Q3 - 0:00.0MIAHEAT Rebound78
93.0%
67
7.0%
Q3 - 0:00.0MIAMISS Jones 66' 3PT Jump Shot78
93.9%
67
6.1%
Q3 - 0:00.0DALBuckner Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T6)78
93.0%
67
7.0%
Q3 - 0:01.0MIAStrickland Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)78
93.6%
67
6.4%
Q3 - 0:01.0MIAMISS Strickland Free Throw 1 of 278
93.8%
66
6.2%
Q3 - 0:06.0DALNowitzki Free Throw 2 of 2 (27 PTS)78
93.6%
66
6.4%
Q3 - 0:06.0DALNowitzki Free Throw 1 of 2 (26 PTS)77
93.4%
66
6.6%
Q3 - 0:10.0DALGriffin REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)76
92.3%
66
7.7%
Q3 - 0:12.0MIAMISS House 21' Jump Shot76
91.8%
66
8.2%
Q3 - 0:31.0DALHoward 17' Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Nash 8 AST)76
90.7%
66
9.3%
Q3 - 0:53.0MIAJones Free Throw 2 of 2 (20 PTS)74
88.8%
66
11.2%
Q3 - 0:53.0MIAJones Free Throw 1 of 2 (19 PTS)74
89.2%
65
10.8%
Q3 - 1:08DALGriffin 6' Jump Shot (4 PTS)74
89.9%
64
10.1%
Q3 - 1:28MIAHouse Layup (2 PTS) (Jones 3 AST)72
88.1%
64
11.9%
Q3 - 1:30MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)72
89.9%
62
10.1%
Q3 - 1:33DALMISS Nash 3PT Jump Shot72
90.5%
62
9.5%
Q3 - 1:35DALNash REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)72
91.6%
62
8.4%
Q3 - 1:38DALMISS Hardaway 25' 3PT Jump Shot72
90.5%
62
9.5%
Q3 - 1:41DALHoward REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)72
91.6%
62
8.4%
Q3 - 1:44DALMISS Nowitzki 26' 3PT Jump Shot72
90.5%
62
9.5%
Q3 - 1:49DALGriffin REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)72
91.6%
62
8.4%
Q3 - 1:51MIAMISS House 19' Jump Shot72
91.2%
62
8.8%
Q3 - 2:12DALNash 19' Jump Shot (15 PTS)72
88.9%
62
11.1%
Q3 - 2:24DALMavericks Rebound70
87.1%
62
12.9%
Q3 - 2:26MIAMISS Strickland 22' Jump Shot70
86.4%
62
13.6%
Q3 - 2:45MIAStrickland REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)70
84.7%
62
15.3%
Q3 - 2:49DALMourning BLOCK (1 BLK)70
85.5%
62
14.5%
Q3 - 3:10MIAJones Free Throw 2 of 2 (18 PTS)70
86.5%
62
13.5%
Q3 - 3:10MIAJones Free Throw 1 of 2 (17 PTS)70
86.9%
61
13.1%
Q3 - 3:16MIAMack REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)70
88.4%
60
11.6%
Q3 - 3:18DALMISS Howard 12' Jump Shot70
89.0%
60
11.0%
Q3 - 3:32MIAMack Traveling Turnover (P1.T9)70
90.2%
60
9.8%
Q3 - 3:46DALNowitzki 16' Jump Shot (25 PTS) (Hardaway 1 AST)70
88.4%
60
11.6%
Q3 - 3:57DALMavericks Rebound68
86.6%
60
13.4%
Q3 - 3:58MIAMISS Mack 24' 3PT Jump Shot68
85.9%
60
14.1%
Q3 - 4:18DALNowitzki Free Throw 2 of 2 (23 PTS)68
83.4%
60
16.6%
Q3 - 4:18DALNowitzki Free Throw 1 of 2 (22 PTS)67
82.9%
60
17.1%
Q3 - 4:32MIAJones 26' 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Ellis 2 AST)66
81.3%
60
18.7%
Q3 - 4:36MIAEllis REBOUND (Off:4 Def:2)66
85.7%
57
14.3%
Q3 - 4:38MIAMISS Mack 24' 3PT Jump Shot66
87.3%
57
12.7%
Q3 - 5:00DALHardaway 26' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Griffin 1 AST)66
85.7%
57
14.3%
Q3 - 5:04MIAStepania Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T8)63
80.6%
57
19.4%
Q3 - 5:07MIAStepania REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)63
77.7%
57
22.3%
Q3 - 5:10DALMISS Nowitzki 11' Jump Shot63
78.6%
57
21.4%
Q3 - 5:29DALNowitzki REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)63
80.6%
57
19.4%
Q3 - 5:31DALMISS Hardaway 26' 3PT Jump Shot63
78.6%
57
21.4%
Q3 - 5:35DALHoward REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)63
80.6%
57
19.4%
Q3 - 5:37DALMISS Finley 26' 3PT Jump Shot63
78.6%
57
21.4%
Q3 - 5:44DALHardaway REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)63
80.7%
57
19.3%
Q3 - 5:46MIAMISS Jones 19' Jump Shot63
79.8%
57
20.2%
Q3 - 6:10DALNowitzki 21' Jump Shot (21 PTS) (Nash 7 AST)63
77.1%
57
22.9%
Q3 - 6:14DALHoward REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)61
74.4%
57
25.6%
Q3 - 6:19MIAMISS Mack 19' Jump Shot61
73.4%
57
26.6%
Q3 - 6:30MIAEllis REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)61
71.0%
57
29.0%
Q3 - 6:35DALMISS Nash 10' Fadeaway Jumper61
72.0%
57
28.0%
Q3 - 6:45DALMavericks Rebound61
74.4%
57
25.6%
Q3 - 6:46MIAMISS Jones 20' Jump Shot61
73.4%
57
26.6%
Q3 - 7:01MIACarter REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)61
70.1%
57
29.9%
Q3 - 7:03DALMISS Nash 12' Jump Shot61
71.2%
57
28.8%
Q3 - 7:23MIAMISS Stepania Free Throw 1 of 161
73.3%
57
26.7%
Q3 - 7:23MIAStepania Driving Layup (6 PTS)61
73.7%
57
26.3%
Q3 - 7:30MIAStepania REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)61
76.2%
55
23.8%
Q3 - 7:32DALMISS Finley 21' Jump Shot61
77.2%
55
22.8%
Q3 - 7:46DALNash Free Throw Technical (13 PTS)61
79.3%
55
20.7%
Q3 - 8:05MIAJump Ball Stepania vs. Bradley: Tip to Nash60
76.5%
55
23.5%
Q3 - 8:30MIAEllis REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)60
73.3%
55
26.7%
Q3 - 8:33MIAMISS Jones 13' Jump Shot60
75.5%
55
24.5%
Q3 - 8:39DALCarter STEAL (1 STL)60
73.2%
55
26.8%
Q3 - 8:41DALNash REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)60
76.5%
55
23.5%
Q3 - 8:45MIAMISS Mack 24' 3PT Jump Shot60
75.5%
55
24.5%
Q3 - 8:47MIACarter REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)60
73.2%
55
26.8%
Q3 - 8:51MIAMISS Stepania 4' Jump Shot60
75.5%
55
24.5%
Q3 - 9:05DALBradley Dunk (6 PTS) (Nash 6 AST)60
73.0%
55
27.0%
Q3 - 9:10DALMavericks Rebound58
70.1%
55
29.9%
Q3 - 9:11DALStepania BLOCK (1 BLK)58
67.9%
55
32.1%
Q3 - 9:24MIAJones 25' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS)58
70.2%
55
29.8%
Q3 - 9:44DALFinley 15' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Buckner 1 AST)58
75.9%
52
24.1%
Q3 - 9:54DALMavericks Rebound56
73.2%
52
26.8%
Q3 - 9:55DALMISS Buckner 13' Jump Shot56
71.1%
52
28.9%
Q3 - 10:07MIAMISS Stepania Free Throw 1 of 156
72.8%
52
27.2%
Q3 - 10:07MIAStepania Layup (4 PTS) (Carter 10 AST)56
73.2%
52
26.8%
Q3 - 10:26MIAJones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)56
75.6%
50
24.4%
Q3 - 10:28DALMISS Nash 21' Jump Shot56
76.4%
50
23.6%
Q3 - 10:32DALNowitzki REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7)56
78.4%
50
21.6%
Q3 - 10:34MIAMISS Mack 20' Jump Shot56
77.5%
50
22.5%
Q3 - 10:44MIAStepania REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)56
75.6%
50
24.4%
Q3 - 10:49DALMack BLOCK (1 BLK)56
76.4%
50
23.6%
Q3 - 10:56DALFinley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)56
78.4%
50
21.6%
Q3 - 10:58MIAMISS Carter 19' Jump Shot56
77.5%
50
22.5%
Q3 - 11:32DALBradley Dunk (4 PTS) (Nash 5 AST)56
75.6%
50
24.4%
Q3 - 11:39DALNowitzki REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)54
73.1%
50
26.9%
Q3 - 11:41MIAMISS Stepania Layup54
72.2%
50
27.8%
Q3 - 11:45MIAStepania REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)54
70.1%
50
29.9%
Q3 - 11:48MIAMISS Jones Layup54
72.2%
50
27.8%
Q2 - 0:00.0DAL54
70.1%
50
29.9%
Q2 - 0:00.0DALMavericks Rebound54
73.1%
50
26.9%
Q2 - 0:00.0DALMISS Finley 21' Jump Shot54
71.0%
50
29.0%
Q2 - 0:06.0MIAMack 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Carter 9 AST)54
72.2%
50
27.8%
Q2 - 0:18.0DALNowitzki Free Throw 2 of 2 (19 PTS)54
77.9%
47
22.1%
Q2 - 0:18.0DALNowitzki Free Throw 1 of 2 (18 PTS)53
77.5%
47
22.5%
Q2 - 0:18.0DALNash REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)52
74.8%
47
25.2%
Q2 - 0:20.0DALMISS Finley 25' 3PT Jump Shot52
73.6%
47
26.4%
Q2 - 0:26.0DALEschmeyer REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)52
74.9%
47
25.1%
Q2 - 0:30.0MIAMISS Jones 16' Jump Shot52
74.3%
47
25.7%
Q2 - 0:42.0MIAEllis REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)52
73.0%
47
27.0%
Q2 - 0:46.0MIAMISS Ellis 11' Jump Shot52
74.3%
47
25.7%
Q2 - 0:59.0DALEschmeyer Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)52
73.0%
47
27.0%
Q2 - 0:59.0DALMISS Eschmeyer Free Throw 1 of 251
72.3%
47
27.7%
Q2 - 1:11MIACarter Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T6)51
71.7%
47
28.3%
Q2 - 1:33MIAGatling REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)51
70.3%
47
29.7%
Q2 - 1:35DALMISS Eschmeyer Free Throw 2 of 251
70.5%
47
29.5%
Q2 - 1:35DALEschmeyer Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)51
72.2%
47
27.8%
Q2 - 1:35DALEschmeyer REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)50
69.0%
47
31.0%
Q2 - 1:36DALMISS Nash 26' 3PT Jump Shot50
68.0%
47
32.0%
Q2 - 1:47MIAMourning Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T5)50
69.0%
47
31.0%
Q2 - 1:58DALHoward Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)50
67.6%
47
32.4%
Q2 - 1:58DALHoward Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)49
67.0%
47
33.0%
Q2 - 2:10MIAEllis 19' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Carter 8 AST)48
63.8%
47
36.2%
Q2 - 2:35MIAEllis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)48
66.8%
45
33.2%
Q2 - 2:35MIAMISS Marks Free Throw 2 of 248
69.0%
45
31.0%
Q2 - 2:35MIAMarks Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)48
67.4%
45
32.6%
Q2 - 2:53DALNowitzki 13' Jump Shot (17 PTS)48
69.6%
44
30.4%
Q2 - 3:08MIAMourning Free Throw 1 of 1 (7 PTS)46
66.7%
44
33.3%
Q2 - 3:08MIAMourning Reverse Layup (6 PTS) (Carter 7 AST)46
69.3%
43
30.7%
Q2 - 3:25DALNowitzki Free Throw 1 of 1 (15 PTS)46
71.5%
41
28.5%
Q2 - 3:25DALNowitzki 11' Jump Shot (14 PTS)45
69.0%
41
31.0%
Q2 - 3:41MIACarter 16' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Ellis 1 AST)43
66.7%
41
33.3%
Q2 - 4:05DALFinley 19' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Nash 4 AST)43
69.0%
39
31.0%
Q2 - 4:09DALHoward REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)41
66.4%
39
33.6%
Q2 - 4:11MIAMISS Ellis Reverse Layup41
65.6%
39
34.4%
Q2 - 4:15MIAJones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)41
63.8%
39
36.2%
Q2 - 4:17DALMISS Nash 15' Jump Shot41
64.6%
39
35.4%
Q2 - 4:24DALNowitzki REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)41
66.4%
39
33.6%
Q2 - 4:27MIAMISS Mack 26' 3PT Jump Shot41
65.6%
39
34.4%
Q2 - 4:44DALNash 25' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Nowitzki 2 AST)41
63.8%
39
36.2%
Q2 - 5:02DALNash REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)38
58.7%
39
41.3%
Q2 - 5:05MIAMISS Mack 25' 3PT Jump Shot38
57.7%
39
42.3%
Q2 - 5:23DALHoward Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)38
55.6%
39
44.4%
Q2 - 5:23DALHoward Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)37
55.1%
39
44.9%
Q2 - 5:23DALMavericks Rebound36
53.1%
39
46.9%
Q2 - 5:24DALMISS Nowitzki 17' Jump Shot36
50.9%
39
49.1%
Q2 - 5:28DALNowitzki REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)36
53.0%
39
47.0%
Q2 - 5:31MIAMISS House 16' Jump Shot36
52.1%
39
47.9%
Q2 - 5:44MIAHouse REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)36
50.0%
39
50.0%
Q2 - 5:48DALMISS Howard 3' Hook Shot36
50.9%
39
49.1%
Q2 - 6:04MIAHouse Out Of Bounds Turnover (P1.T4)36
53.6%
39
46.4%
Q2 - 6:18DALHoward Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)36
50.3%
39
49.7%
Q2 - 6:18DALHoward Dunk (2 PTS) (Nash 3 AST)35
47.6%
39
52.4%
Q2 - 6:22DALNowitzki REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)33
45.4%
39
54.6%
Q2 - 6:24MIAMISS Strickland 4' Jump Shot33
44.4%
39
55.6%
Q2 - 6:47MIAHEAT Rebound33
42.1%
39
57.9%
Q2 - 6:47DALMISS Howard 14' Jump Shot33
43.1%
39
56.9%
Q2 - 7:08MIAMarks 21' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Strickland 4 AST)33
46.0%
39
54.0%
Q2 - 7:27DALNash 21' Jump Shot (9 PTS)33
48.4%
37
51.6%
Q2 - 7:35MIAMarks Dunk (4 PTS)31
46.0%
37
54.0%
Q2 - 7:37MIAMarks REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)31
48.4%
35
51.6%
Q2 - 7:41MIAMISS Gatling 5' Hook Shot31
50.4%
35
49.6%
Q2 - 7:53DALNash 6' Running Jump Shot (7 PTS)31
48.4%
35
51.6%
Q2 - 8:01DALHoward REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)29
46.1%
35
53.9%
Q2 - 8:05MIAMISS Gatling 14' Running Jump Shot29
45.2%
35
54.8%
Q2 - 8:16DALMavericks Turnover: Backcourt (T#4)29
43.2%
35
56.8%
Q2 - 8:24DALMavericks Rebound29
46.1%
35
53.9%
Q2 - 8:25DALMISS Hardaway Jump Shot29
44.1%
35
55.9%
Q2 - 8:47MIAJones 19' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Strickland 3 AST)29
46.1%
35
53.9%
Q2 - 9:02DALGriffin Layup (2 PTS)29
48.8%
33
51.2%
Q2 - 9:07DALGriffin REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)27
46.5%
33
53.5%
Q2 - 9:09DALMISS Hardaway 26' 3PT Jump Shot27
44.6%
33
55.4%
Q2 - 9:18DALHarvey REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)27
46.5%
33
53.5%
Q2 - 9:20MIAMISS Strickland Driving Layup27
45.7%
33
54.3%
Q2 - 9:33DALNash 9' Fadeaway Jumper (5 PTS)27
43.7%
33
56.3%
Q2 - 9:52MIAJones Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T3)25
41.5%
33
58.5%
Q2 - 10:01MIAGatling REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)25
38.9%
33
61.1%
Q2 - 10:01MIAMISS Gatling Layup25
40.8%
33
59.2%
Q2 - 10:18DALHarvey Tip Shot (2 PTS)25
38.9%
33
61.1%
Q2 - 10:21DALHarvey REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)23
36.9%
33
63.1%
Q2 - 10:21DALMISS Finley 19' Jump Hook Shot23
35.1%
33
64.9%
Q2 - 10:47MIAStrickland 18' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Jones 2 AST)23
36.9%
33
63.1%
Q2 - 11:15MIAGatling REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)23
39.6%
31
60.4%
Q2 - 11:16DALMISS Howard Free Throw 2 of 223
39.9%
31
60.1%
Q2 - 11:16DALMISS Howard Free Throw 1 of 223
41.5%
31
58.5%
Q2 - 11:46MIAMarks Slam Dunk (2 PTS) (Jones 1 AST)23
41.9%
31
58.1%
Q1 - 0:00.0DAL23
44.2%
29
55.8%
Q1 - 0:00.0DALFinley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)23
46.7%
29
53.3%
Q1 - 0:01.0MIAMISS Mourning 11' Jump Shot23
46.0%
29
54.0%
Q1 - 0:15.0MIAGatling REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)23
44.7%
29
55.3%
Q1 - 0:20.0DALMISS Howard 15' Jump Shot23
45.3%
29
54.7%
Q1 - 0:30.0MIAMourning Driving Layup (4 PTS)23
46.6%
29
53.4%
Q1 - 0:47.0MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)23
49.5%
27
50.5%
Q1 - 0:49.0DALMISS Griffin 17' Jump Shot23
50.0%
27
50.0%
Q1 - 1:06DALHoward REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)23
51.5%
27
48.5%
Q1 - 1:08MIAMISS Strickland 21' Jump Shot23
50.9%
27
49.1%
Q1 - 1:25MIAStrickland REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)23
49.6%
27
50.4%
Q1 - 1:27DALMISS Howard 19' Jump Shot23
50.2%
27
49.8%
Q1 - 1:40MIAGatling 10' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Strickland 2 AST)23
51.4%
27
48.6%
Q1 - 1:57DALHardaway 22' Jump Shot (2 PTS)23
54.3%
25
45.7%
Q1 - 2:00DALHardaway REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)21
51.4%
25
48.6%
Q1 - 2:03MIAMISS Strickland 22' Jump Shot21
51.3%
25
48.7%
Q1 - 2:23MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)21
49.8%
25
50.2%
Q1 - 2:25DALMISS Hardaway 17' Jump Shot21
50.5%
25
49.5%
Q1 - 2:50MIAStrickland Driving Layup (2 PTS) (Gatling 1 AST)21
52.0%
25
48.0%
Q1 - 2:55DALHardaway Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T3)21
54.5%
23
45.5%
Q1 - 3:04MIAEllis 6' Hook Shot (5 PTS) (Strickland 1 AST)21
56.9%
23
43.1%
Q1 - 3:23MIAHEAT Rebound21
58.9%
21
41.1%
Q1 - 3:24DALMISS Finley 21' Jump Shot21
59.6%
21
40.4%
Q1 - 3:35MIAJones Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)21
61.3%
21
38.7%
Q1 - 3:35MIAJones Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)21
61.7%
20
38.3%
Q1 - 3:35MIAJones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)21
63.2%
19
36.8%
Q1 - 3:37DALMISS Nowitzki 28' 3PT Jump Shot21
63.9%
19
36.1%
Q1 - 4:04MIAMourning 17' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Carter 6 AST)21
65.6%
19
34.4%
Q1 - 4:21DALNowitzki 26' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Nash 2 AST)21
67.1%
17
32.9%
Q1 - 4:26DALNash REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)18
63.6%
17
36.4%
Q1 - 4:30MIAMISS Mack 26' 3PT Jump Shot18
62.8%
17
37.2%
Q1 - 4:51DALFinley 21' Jump Shot (4 PTS)18
61.0%
17
39.0%
Q1 - 4:58DALBuckner REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)16
59.4%
17
40.6%
Q1 - 5:00MIAMISS Carter 20' Jump Shot16
58.6%
17
41.4%
Q1 - 5:06MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)16
57.2%
17
42.8%
Q1 - 5:08DALMISS Finley 18' Jump Shot16
57.9%
17
42.1%
Q1 - 5:27MIAJones 25' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Carter 5 AST)16
59.4%
17
40.6%
Q1 - 5:46MIAMack REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)16
63.2%
14
36.8%
Q1 - 5:48MIAMISS Mack Free Throw 2 of 216
65.1%
14
34.9%
Q1 - 5:48MIAMack Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)16
64.0%
14
36.0%
Q1 - 5:51DALFinley Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T2)16
65.1%
13
34.9%
Q1 - 6:01DALNowitzki REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)16
66.8%
13
33.2%
Q1 - 6:03MIAMISS Jones 18' Jump Shot16
66.2%
13
33.8%
Q1 - 6:27DALBradley 2' Hook Shot (2 PTS) (Nowitzki 1 AST)16
64.9%
13
35.1%
Q1 - 6:45MIACarter Foul Turnover (P1.T2)14
63.1%
13
36.9%
Q1 - 6:51DALStepania STEAL (1 STL)14
61.1%
13
38.9%
Q1 - 7:09MIAMack 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Carter 4 AST)14
63.2%
13
36.8%
Q1 - 7:16MIAJones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)14
66.4%
10
33.6%
Q1 - 7:20DALEllis BLOCK (1 BLK)14
67.0%
10
33.0%
Q1 - 7:36MIAEllis 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Carter 3 AST)14
68.3%
10
31.7%
Q1 - 7:51DALFinley 16' Jump Shot (2 PTS)14
71.3%
7
28.7%
Q1 - 8:00MIAEllis Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)12
69.9%
7
30.1%
Q1 - 8:15DALNowitzki Free Throw 1 of 1 (9 PTS)12
68.5%
7
31.5%
Q1 - 8:15DALNowitzki Reverse Layup (8 PTS)11
66.8%
7
33.2%
Q1 - 8:23DALNowitzki REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)9
65.3%
7
34.7%
Q1 - 8:25MIAMISS Carter 9' Jump Shot9
64.7%
7
35.3%
Q1 - 8:40MIAEllis REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)9
63.4%
7
36.6%
Q1 - 8:42DALMISS Nash 17' Jump Shot9
64.0%
7
36.0%
Q1 - 8:51DALBradley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)9
65.3%
7
34.7%
Q1 - 8:55MIAMISS Stepania 5' Hook Shot9
64.7%
7
35.3%
Q1 - 9:11DALNowitzki Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)9
63.1%
7
36.9%
Q1 - 9:11DALNowitzki Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)8
62.7%
7
37.3%
Q1 - 9:28MIAStepania Dunk (2 PTS) (Carter 2 AST)7
61.8%
7
38.2%
Q1 - 10:00DALNowitzki 11' Jump Shot (4 PTS)7
63.1%
5
36.9%
Q1 - 10:14DALBradley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)5
61.6%
5
38.4%
Q1 - 10:16MIAMISS Mack 21' Jump Shot5
61.0%
5
39.0%
Q1 - 10:32DALNash 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS)5
59.6%
5
40.4%
Q1 - 10:44MIAJones 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Carter 1 AST)2
56.2%
5
43.8%
Q1 - 10:59DALNowitzki 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Nash 1 AST)2
59.6%
2
40.4%
Q1 - 11:22MIAMack 16' Jump Shot (2 PTS)0
57.9%
2
42.1%
Q1 - 11:42MIAStepania REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)0
59.8%
0
40.2%
Q1 - 11:45DALMISS Finley 12' Jump Shot0
60.3%
0
39.7%
Q1 - 12:00MIAJump Ball Stepania vs. Bradley: Tip to Nash0
61.5%
0
38.5%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DAL
1.05 52.5%
MIA
0.99 49.5%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
DAL
11
18
61%
MIA
15
28
54%
Midrange
DAL
21
47
45%
MIA
12
35
34%
3PT | Effective 3PT
DAL
6
9.0
15
40%
60%
MIA
8
12.0
15
53%
80%
Free Throws
DAL
22
26
85%
MIA
16
27
59%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
DAL logo Mavericks
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
D. Nowitzki3372%16.5 / 23
S. Nash2265%11.0 / 17
M. Finley1544%7.5 / 17
J. Howard1343%6.5 / 15
S. Bradley675%3.0 / 4
A. Griffin650%3.0 / 6
T. Hardaway536%2.5 / 7
D. Harvey2100%1.0 / 1
E. Eschmeyer250%1.0 / 2
G. Buckner0-0.0 / 2
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
MIA logo Heat
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
E. Jones2265%11.0 / 17
R. Strickland1447%7.0 / 15
A. Mourning1286%6.0 / 7
S. Mack935%4.5 / 13
C. Gatling836%4.0 / 11
L. Ellis770%3.5 / 5
E. House750%3.5 / 7
S. Marks758%3.5 / 6
V. Stepania638%3.0 / 8
A. Carter225%1.0 / 4
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

DAL
82
+17
-10
99
MIA
80
+14
-12
94
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DAL
1.05 52.5%
MIA
0.99 49.5%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
109.4
96.1
DAL 113.0 +10.9
MIA 102.2
Pace
95.4
89.7
DAL 95.0 +5.8
MIA 89.2
Avg. Poss. Time
14.9
16.7
DAL 15.2 +1.0
MIA 16.1
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
50.7%
46.3%
DAL 51.3% +1.3%
MIA 50.0%
TO %
12.1%
15.5%
DAL 11.6% +0.2%
MIA 11.8%
ORB %
26.2%
26.7%
DAL 32.4% +5.1%
MIA 27.3%
FTrt
28.8
26.8
DAL 32.5
MIA 34.6 +2.1
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
56.6%
59.4%
DAL 50.0%
MIA 71.4% +21.4%
STL %
7.4%
7.4%
DAL 5.4%
MIA 6.5% +1.1%
BLK %
7.1%
8.7%
DAL 6.3%
MIA 7.7% +1.4%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.41 and 2.41.

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
53.0%
47.7%
DAL 52.5% +3.0%
MIA 49.5%
Rim FG%
58.9%
60.6%
DAL 61.1% +7.5%
MIA 53.6%
Mid FG%
42.0%
38.0%
DAL 44.7% +10.4%
MIA 34.3%
3P %
37.8%
34.7%
DAL 40.0%
MIA 53.3% +13.3%
FT %
80.6%
72.4%
DAL 84.6% +25.3%
MIA 59.3%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
30.7%
28.1%
DAL 22.5%
MIA 35.9% +13.4%
Mid Att. %
45.6%
57.8%
DAL 58.8%
MIA 44.9% +13.9%
3P Att. %
23.7%
14.1%
DAL 18.8%
MIA 19.2% +0.5%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.18 and 2.18.
Game TotalsDALMIA
Possessions9292
Possession Minutes23.324.8
Points10494
Rebounds4437
Assists1925
Steals56
Blocks45
Turnovers (Team)10 (2)12 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)12 (5)12 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)32 (4)25 (2)
Field Goals38-8035-78
At-the-Rim FG11-1815-28
Midrange FG21-4712-35
2-Point FG32-6527-63
3-Point FG6-158-15
Free Throws22-2616-27
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
F · 7'0" 245 · 23
43.7
33
72%
11
2
0
0
1
5
2
9
10-10
100%
10-14
71%
1-3
33%
G · 6'7" 225 · 29
40.1
15
44%
5
0
1
1
3
3
2
3
0-0
-
6-14
43%
1-3
33%
G · 6'3" 178 · 28
39.4
22
65%
6
9
0
0
3
3
2
4
3-3
100%
5-11
45%
3-5
60%
F · 6'4" 210 · 25
14.5
0
0%
1
1
1
1
1
2
0
1
0-0
-
0-2
0%
0-0
-
C · 7'6" 275 · 30
13.0
6
75%
3
0
1
1
0
4
0
3
0-0
-
3-4
75%
0-0
-
F · 6'9" 250 · 29
34.9
13
43%
7
3
0
1
0
3
2
5
7-9
78%
3-10
30%
0-0
-
G-F · 6'5" 230 · 27
25.2
6
50%
5
3
2
0
1
2
2
3
0-0
-
3-6
50%
0-0
-
G · 6'0" 195 · 35
17.3
5
36%
2
1
0
0
1
0
0
2
0-0
-
1-3
33%
1-4
25%
F · 6'8" 220 · 21
7.5
2
100%
2
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
0-0
-
1-1
100%
0-0
-
C · 6'11" 250 · 26
4.5
2
50%
2
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
2-4
50%
0-0
-
0-0
-
F · 6'8" 235 · 25
F-C · 6'10" 234 · 36
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
104
53%
44
19
5
4
10
0
12
32
22-26
85%
32-65
49%
6-15
40%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.