Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, March 21, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	3	Celtics	85%	122	121	126.0	96	98.2
	28	Jazz	15%	107	99	103.1	96	93.9

Scoring Opportunities

BOS

+21

-10

107

UTA

+12

-17

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

BOS

1.13 56.5%

UTA

1.09 54.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

3 Boston Celtics

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jayson Tatum #0 · SF · 6'8" 210 · 27	33.5	26	52%	6	6	3	0	6	1	0	6	1-1	100%	8-15	53%	3-10	30%
Derrick White #9 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 31	31.8	11	55%	5	4	3	1	1	4	0	5	3-4	75%	1-1	100%	2-7	29%
Al Horford #42 · PF · 6'8" 240 · 39	26.7	5	36%	9	2	0	0	0	0	5	4	0-0	-	1-3	33%	1-4	25%
Kristaps Porziņģis #8 · C · 7'2" 240 · 30	24.7	27	75%	10	6	1	0	1	4	4	6	6-6	100%	6-10	60%	3-5	60%
Jrue Holiday #4 · PG · 6'4" 220 · 35	23.2	8	57%	2	4	3	0	1	3	0	2	2-2	100%	3-5	60%	0-1	0%

Payton Pritchard #11 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 27	31.6	18	64%	2	4	1	0	1	2	1	1	2-3	67%	2-2	100%	4-11	36%
Sam Hauser #30 · PF · 6'7" 217 · 27	28.9	14	70%	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	4-8	50%
Luke Kornet #40 · C · 7'1" 250 · 30	16.9	4	50%	8	0	0	3	0	1	3	5	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Baylor Scheierman #55 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	12.4	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-4	0%
JD Davison #20 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 22	3.2	4	67%	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-1	0%
Neemias Queta #88 · C · 7'0" 248 · 26	2.2	0	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Drew Peterson #13 · PF · 6'8" 205 · 25	2.2	0	0%	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jordan Walsh #27 · PF · 6'6" 205 · 21	2.2	4	100%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Torrey Craig #12 · SF · 6'6" 215 · 34	0.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Miles Norris #1 · PF · 6'7" 220 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Xavier Tillman #26 · C · 6'8" 245 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Joint Sprain
Jaylen Brown #7 · SF · 6'6" 223 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Posterior Impingement
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	121	56%	48	27	13	4	10	15	16	32	14-16	88%	28-46	61%	17-51	33%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

3 Boston Celtics

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jayson Tatum #0 · SF · 6'8" 210 · 27	33.5	26	52%	6	6	3	0	6	1	0	6	1-1	100%	8-15	53%	3-10	30%
Derrick White #9 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 31	31.8	11	55%	5	4	3	1	1	4	0	5	3-4	75%	1-1	100%	2-7	29%
Al Horford #42 · PF · 6'8" 240 · 39	26.7	5	36%	9	2	0	0	0	0	5	4	0-0	-	1-3	33%	1-4	25%
Kristaps Porziņģis #8 · C · 7'2" 240 · 30	24.7	27	75%	10	6	1	0	1	4	4	6	6-6	100%	6-10	60%	3-5	60%
Jrue Holiday #4 · PG · 6'4" 220 · 35	23.2	8	57%	2	4	3	0	1	3	0	2	2-2	100%	3-5	60%	0-1	0%

Payton Pritchard #11 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 27	31.6	18	64%	2	4	1	0	1	2	1	1	2-3	67%	2-2	100%	4-11	36%
Sam Hauser #30 · PF · 6'7" 217 · 27	28.9	14	70%	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	4-8	50%
Luke Kornet #40 · C · 7'1" 250 · 30	16.9	4	50%	8	0	0	3	0	1	3	5	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Baylor Scheierman #55 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	12.4	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-4	0%
JD Davison #20 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 22	3.2	4	67%	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-1	0%
Neemias Queta #88 · C · 7'0" 248 · 26	2.2	0	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Drew Peterson #13 · PF · 6'8" 205 · 25	2.2	0	0%	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jordan Walsh #27 · PF · 6'6" 205 · 21	2.2	4	100%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Torrey Craig #12 · SF · 6'6" 215 · 34	0.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Miles Norris #1 · PF · 6'7" 220 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Xavier Tillman #26 · C · 6'8" 245 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Joint Sprain
Jaylen Brown #7 · SF · 6'6" 223 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Posterior Impingement
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	121	56%	48	27	13	4	10	15	16	32	14-16	88%	28-46	61%	17-51	33%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

28 Utah Jazz

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Collin Sexton #2 · SG · 6'3" 190 · 26	35.6	30	88%	2	3	1	0	3	5	0	2	2-3	67%	8-10	80%	4-6	67%
Isaiah Collier #13 · PG · 6'4" 210 · 20	30.4	5	25%	4	5	1	0	2	2	0	4	1-2	50%	2-6	33%	0-3	0%
Walker Kessler #24 · C · 7'2" 245 · 24	28.8	8	44%	11	6	0	1	1	1	6	5	0-0	-	4-8	50%	0-1	0%
Cody Williams #5 · PF · 6'8" 190 · 20	21.3	4	33%	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-1	0%
Svi Mykhailiuk #19 · SF · 6'7" 205 · 28	18.9	4	33%	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	0-3	0%

Keyonte George #3 · PG · 6'4" 185 · 21	33.3	19	59%	4	7	0	0	3	1	0	4	0-0	-	2-7	29%	5-9	56%
Micah Potter #25 · C · 6'9" 248 · 27	22.8	7	70%	5	1	0	0	1	2	2	3	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Johnny Juzang #33 · SG · 6'7" 226 · 24	22.1	11	69%	2	1	3	0	1	1	1	1	1-1	100%	2-4	50%	2-4	50%
Kyle Filipowski #22 · C · 6'11" 250 · 21	14.3	4	40%	4	0	0	0	5	2	0	4	1-2	50%	0-0	-	1-4	25%
Brice Sensabaugh #28 · SF · 6'6" 235 · 21	12.5	7	50%	4	0	1	0	1	1	0	4	0-0	-	2-5	40%	1-2	50%
Jaden Springer #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 22	DND - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Injury management
Elijah Harkless #16 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Oscar Tshiebwe #34 · C · 6'8" 255 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Taylor Hendricks #0 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Fibula; Fracture
KJ Martin #99 · SF · 6'6" 215 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Elbow; Bursitis
John Collins #20 · PF · 6'9" 226 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Jordan Clarkson #00 · SG · 6'5" 194 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Plantar; Fasciitis
Lauri Markkanen #23 · PF · 7'1" 240 · 28	Inactive – Personal
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	99	54%	38	24	7	2	17	17	9	29	9-12	75%	24-49	49%	14-35	40%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	BOS	UTA
Clock	Team	Event	BOS	UTA

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

BOS

1.13 56.5%

UTA

1.09 54.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

BOS

71%

UTA

48%

Midrange

BOS

50%

UTA

50%

3PT | Effective 3PT

BOS

25.5

33%

50%

UTA

21.0

40%

60%

Free Throws

BOS

88%

UTA

75%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Celtics

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
K. Porziņģis	27	75%	13.5 / 18
J. Tatum	26	52%	13.0 / 25
P. Pritchard	18	64%	9.0 / 14
S. Hauser	14	70%	7.0 / 10
D. White	11	55%	5.5 / 10
J. Holiday	8	57%	4.0 / 7
A. Horford	5	36%	2.5 / 7
L. Kornet	4	50%	2.0 / 4
J. Davison	4	67%	2.0 / 3
J. Walsh	4	100%	2.0 / 2
B. Scheierman	0	-	0.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Jazz

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
C. Sexton	30	88%	15.0 / 17
K. George	19	59%	9.5 / 16
J. Juzang	11	69%	5.5 / 8
W. Kessler	8	44%	4.0 / 9
M. Potter	7	70%	3.5 / 5
B. Sensabaugh	7	50%	3.5 / 7
I. Collier	5	25%	2.5 / 10
C. Williams	4	33%	2.0 / 6
S. Mykhailiuk	4	33%	2.0 / 6
K. Filipowski	4	40%	2.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	2 119.5 24 110.3	BOS 126.0 +22.9 UTA 103.1
Pace	29 96.6 7 100.8	BOS 98.2 +4.4 UTA 93.9
Avg. Poss. Time	2 15.5 13 14.7	BOS 14.7 −0.7 UTA 15.3
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	5 56.1% 21 53.3%	BOS 55.2% +1.6% UTA 53.6%
TO %	2 11.7% 30 16.2%	BOS 9.6% −6.4% UTA 16.0%
ORB %	15 25.6% 6 26.9%	BOS 35.6% +13.6% UTA 22.0%
FTrt	30 21.2 7 25.2	BOS 16.5 +2.2 UTA 14.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	20 62.8% 18 63.3%	BOS 60.0% UTA 63.2% +3.2%
STL %	26 7.4% 30 6.6%	BOS 13.5% +6.2% UTA 7.3%
BLK %	4 10.5% 25 8.5%	BOS 8.2% +3.9% UTA 4.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.5 and 2.5.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	6 57.8% 20 55.4%	BOS 56.5% +2.1% UTA 54.4%
Rim FG%	4 67.3% 15 63.8%	BOS 70.8% +23.0% UTA 47.8%
Mid FG%	14 43.9% 17 43.1%	BOS 50.0% UTA 50.0%
3P %	10 36.8% 22 35.0%	BOS 33.3% UTA 40.0% +6.7%
FT %	6 79.9% 22 77.4%	BOS 87.5% +12.5% UTA 75.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	29 26.2% 27 28.8%	BOS 24.7% UTA 27.4% +2.6%
Mid Att. %	1 20.2% 15 26.2%	BOS 22.7% −8.3% UTA 31.0%
3P Att. %	1 53.6% 7 44.9%	BOS 52.6% +10.9% UTA 41.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -3.17 and 3.17.

Game Totals	BOS	UTA
Possessions	96	96
Possession Minutes	23.5	24.5
Points	121	99
Rebounds	48	38
Assists	27	24
Steals	13	7
Blocks	4	2
Turnovers (Team)	10 (1)	17 (0)
Fouls	15	17
Off. Rebounds (Team)	16 (5)	9 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	32 (3)	29 (4)
Field Goals	45-97	38-84
At-the-Rim FG	17-24	11-23
Midrange FG	11-22	13-26
2-Point FG	28-46	24-49
3-Point FG	17-51	14-35
Free Throws	14-16	9-12
Fast Break Pts	18	6
2nd Chance Pts	33	18
Points in Paint	50	40
Pts off Turnovers	26	5
Bench Points	44	48
Biggest Lead	22	5

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg